Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid

Super Cup

Real Madrid

Coach : Z. Zidane

08 Jan 2026

20:00

King Abdullah Sports City

Score Summary

Atletico Madrid

1 2

FT HT 0–1

Real Madrid

A. Sorloth 58'

2' F. Valverde
55' Rodrygo

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

50% Win

Atletico Madrid 1586 1576 ▼ -10

50% Win

Real Madrid 1589 1599 ▲ 10

xPi Expected win probability

42% Win

Atletico Madrid 0.23 0.17 ▼ -0.06

36% Win

Real Madrid 0.83 0.83 ▼ 0.00

Top Performers

Top Rated

Federico Valverde

Real Madrid

8.2

8.2 rating · 90 min

Most Clinical

Alexander Sørloth

Atletico Madrid

7.0

1 goals

Best Creator

Julián Alvarez

Atletico Madrid

6.9

4 key passes · 0 assists

Defensive Leader

Marc Pubill

Atletico Madrid

6.9

3 tackles · 3 interceptions

Match Momentum

Atletico Madrid 60% Real Madrid 40%

Key Stats Snapshot

55 Possession 45

22 Shots 8

6 On Target 4

Form Context

Atletico Madrid

Real Madrid

W L

Smart Insight

Atletico Madrid controlled momentum for most phases of play.
Atletico Madrid generated the clearer shot volume edge.
Elo movement favors Real Madrid after this result.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 42.2%

Draw 21.0%

Away Win 36.8%

Expected Goals 2.24 - 2.10

Qualification %

Atletico Madrid 0.0%

Real Madrid 100.0%

Based on 5000 simulations

Standings (Top 6)

View full standings

#	Team	Scr	Pts	Form
1	Barcelona		6	W W
2	Real Madrid	1-2	3	W L
3	Atletico Madrid	1-2	0	L
4	Athletic Club		0	L

55 Possession 45

6 Shots 4

22 Shots 8

1 Offsides 0

10 Shots Off Goal 2

6 Shots On Goal 4

22 Total Shots 8

55 Ball Possession 45

468 Passes Accurate 383

537 Total Passes 455

87% Passes % 84%

6 Blocked Shots 2

2 Goalkeeper Saves 5

7 Fouls 7

0 Red Cards 0

0 Yellow Cards 1

9 Corner Kicks 1

15 Shots Insidebox 6

7 Shots Outsidebox 2

N/A expected_goals N/A

N/A goals_prevented N/A

Atletico Madrid — Player Statistics

Player	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Alex Baena	2	1	1	8	2	1	-	False	60	10	M	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	19	3	30	-	-	-	2	2	-	1	1
👤 Alexander Sørloth	-	-	-	8	4	1	-	False	74	9	F	7	False	0	0	-	1	-	7	1	10	-	-	-	3	6	1	-	-
👤 Antoine Griezmann	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	30	7	F	6.2	True	0	0	-	-	1	5	-	6	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Conor Gallagher	1	2	-	6	2	1	-	False	45	4	M	6.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	24	1	28	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	2
👤 Dávid Hancko	1	-	1	4	3	-	-	False	90	17	D	6.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	55	3	59	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1
👤 Giacomo Raspadori	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	22	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Giuliano Simeone	3	-	3	13	10	-	4	False	90	20	M	8	False	1	0	-	-	-	35	2	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1
👤 Jan Oblak	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	False	90	13	G	6.3	False	0	2	2	-	-	15	-	19	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jano Monserrate	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	27	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Johnny Cardoso	-	1	-	3	2	-	-	False	30	5	M	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	22	-	24	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	2
👤 José María Giménez	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	2	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Juan Musso	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	1	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Julio Díaz	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	34	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Julián Alvarez	2	-	1	4	2	1	-	False	90	19	F	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	41	4	47	-	-	-	-	2	-	-	1
👤 Koke	2	1	1	5	2	-	-	True	60	6	M	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	37	-	38	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Marc Pubill	-	-	-	10	8	-	2	False	90	18	D	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	61	1	66	-	-	-	-	-	-	3	3
👤 Marcos Llorente	1	-	-	7	4	1	-	False	90	14	D	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	47	2	55	-	-	-	-	2	-	-	3
👤 Matteo Ruggeri	-	-	-	4	2	-	-	False	80	3	D	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	27	-	29	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	2
👤 Nahuel Molina	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	10	16	D	6.6	True	0	0	-	-	-	12	-	14	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Robin Le Normand	-	1	-	8	5	1	1	False	45	24	D	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	42	-	45	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	2
👤 Taufik Seidu	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	28	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Thiago Almada	1	-	1	2	1	1	-	False	16	11	M	7	True	0	0	-	-	-	19	1	20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Real Madrid — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Andriy Lunin	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	13	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Antonio Rüdiger	0	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	False	69	22	D	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	36	-	39	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	-
👤 Arda Güler	0	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	False	9	15	M	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	7	-	9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Aurélien Tchouaméni	0	-	1	-	3	-	-	-	False	90	14	M	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	48	-	52	-	-	-	-	-	-	3	-
👤 Dani Ceballos	0	-	1	-	2	1	-	-	False	11	19	M	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	5	-	7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Daniel Carvajal	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	2	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 David Alaba	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	4	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 David Jiménez	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	35	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Dean Huijsen	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	24	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Eduardo Camavinga	0	1	1	1	7	5	-	2	False	87	6	M	7.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	45	1	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	2
👤 Federico Valverde	0	-	1	-	6	5	-	1	True	90	8	D	8.2	False	1	0	-	1	-	39	1	48	-	-	-	1	2	-	4	2
👤 Ferland Mendy	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	21	23	D	6.6	True	0	0	-	-	-	10	-	11	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Fran García	0	-	1	-	5	-	2	-	False	21	20	D	6.5	True	0	0	-	-	-	9	-	10	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Franco Mastantuono	0	1	1	-	3	-	-	-	False	11	30	F	6.2	True	0	0	-	-	-	3	-	3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Gonzalo García	0	1	1	-	9	2	1	-	False	90	16	F	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	11	-	19	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1
👤 Jude Bellingham	0	1	-	1	12	6	-	1	False	90	5	M	7.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	36	1	42	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	3
👤 Raúl Asencio	0	-	-	-	5	4	-	1	False	69	17	D	7.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	32	-	34	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-
👤 Rodrygo	0	6	-	3	9	3	-	-	False	87	11	M	7.9	False	0	0	-	1	-	35	-	38	-	-	-	3	3	-	-	-
👤 Thiago Pitarch	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	45	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Thibaut Courtois	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	False	90	1	G	7.9	False	0	1	5	-	-	21	-	43	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Vinícius Júnior	1	3	1	1	11	5	1	2	False	81	7	M	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	17	1	21	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	2
👤 Álvaro Carreras	0	1	-	-	8	3	3	-	False	90	18	D	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	29	2	32	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	3

League standings

View standings

Teams in this match: Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Barcelona		2	2	0	8	2	6	6	W W
2	Real Madrid	1-2	2	1	1	4	4	0	3	W L
3	Atletico Madrid	1-2	1	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
4	Athletic Club		1	0	1	0	5	-5	0	L

Predict the score

Loading API predictions…

CatBoost Prediction

Model not available yet. Run train_catboost to train a model.

Qualification Prediction Based on 5000 simulations

Atletico Madrid

0.0%

Real Madrid

100.0%

Match Type: Single match knockout

Method: Monte Carlo (Dixon-Coles + Elo fallback, elo-weighted ET/PEN)

How was this calculated?

We simulate this knockout matchup using scoreline probabilities from Dixon-Coles where available, with an Elo fallback when needed. For two-leg ties we aggregate both legs and count who advances; for single-match knockouts and aggregate-level ties we resolve the shootout step with an elo-weighted draw rather than a 50/50 flip.

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

42.2%

Home Win

21.0%

Draw

36.8%

Away Win

Expected Goals

Atletico Madrid 2.24

Real Madrid 2.10

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

Atletico Madrid

Real Madrid

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Qualification %

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)