Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid

La Liga

Rayo Vallecano

Coach : Iñigo Pérez

HT: 2–0

Atletico Madrid

Coach : D. Simeone

15 Feb 2026

16:15

Estadio Municipal de Butarque

Stadium

Estadio Municipal de Butarque

Leganes

Score Summary

Rayo Vallecano

3 0

FT HT 2–0

Atletico Madrid

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

34% Win

Rayo Vallecano 1478 1492 ▲ 13

66% Win

Atletico Madrid 1592 1579 ▼ -13

xPi Expected win probability

43% Win

Rayo Vallecano -0.08 0.04 ▲ 0.13

36% Win

Atletico Madrid 0.36 0.17 ▼ -0.19

Top Performers

Top Rated

Andrei Rațiu

Rayo Vallecano

8.2

8.2 rating · 90 min

Most Clinical

Nobel Mendy

Rayo Vallecano

8.2

1 goals

Best Creator

Thiago Almada

Atletico Madrid

6.9

3 key passes · 0 assists

Defensive Leader

Florian Lejeune

Rayo Vallecano

7.9

1 tackles · 3 interceptions

Match Momentum

Rayo Vallecano 75% Atletico Madrid 25%

Key Stats Snapshot

41 Possession 59

13 Shots 9

9 On Target 3

Form Context

Rayo Vallecano

L W L W D

Atletico Madrid

L L L L W

Smart Insight

Rayo Vallecano controlled momentum for most phases of play.
Rayo Vallecano generated the clearer shot volume edge.
Elo movement favors Rayo Vallecano after this result.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 39.7%

Draw 28.2%

Away Win 32.1%

Expected Goals 1.43 - 1.26

Standings (Top 6)

Full table

#	Team	Scr	Pts	Form
1	Barcelona		85	W W W W W
2	Real Madrid		74	W L D W D
3	Villarreal		65	W L W D W
4	Atletico Madrid	3-0	60	L L L L W
5	Real Betis		50	L D D W D
6	Celta Vigo		44	L W L L L

Promotion - Champions League (League phase)

Promotion - Europa League (League phase)

Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)

Relegation - LaLiga2

41 Possession 59

9 Shots 3

13 Shots 9

3 Offsides 0

1 Shots Off Goal 2

9 Shots On Goal 3

13 Total Shots 9

41 Ball Possession 59

286 Passes Accurate 413

354 Total Passes 486

81% Passes % 85%

3 Blocked Shots 4

3 Goalkeeper Saves 6

10 Fouls 13

0 Red Cards 0

1 Yellow Cards 3

4 Corner Kicks 8

8 Shots Insidebox 7

5 Shots Outsidebox 2

1.61 expected_goals 0.70

0 goals_prevented 0

Rayo Vallecano — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Abdul Mumin	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	16	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Alemão	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	9	F	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Andrei Rațiu	0	-	1	-	4	2	-	1	False	90	2	D	8.2	False	1	-	-	-	32	1	42	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	-
👤 Augusto Batalla	0	-	-	-	2	1	-	-	False	90	13	G	7.7	False	0	3	-	-	19	-	30	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Florian Lejeune	0	-	-	-	7	5	2	1	False	90	24	D	7.9	False	0	-	-	-	52	-	60	-	-	-	1	2	-	3	1
👤 Fran Pérez	0	1	1	1	6	2	1	1	False	64	21	M	7.6	False	0	-	1	2	9	-	11	-	-	-	2	2	1	-	-
👤 Gerard Gumbau	0	2	-	1	5	2	2	-	False	83	15	M	6.9	False	0	-	-	-	23	2	29	-	-	-	1	1	1	-	1
👤 Ilias Akhomach	0	4	-	3	11	8	-	4	False	74	12	M	7.5	False	0	-	-	-	15	1	20	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	1
👤 Isi Palazón	0	1	2	1	6	3	-	1	False	64	7	M	6.9	False	0	-	-	-	19	1	22	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Ivan Balliu	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	20	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jorge de Frutos	0	-	1	-	5	-	2	-	False	64	19	F	5.9	False	0	-	-	1	8	-	8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jozhua Vertrouwd	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	26	33	D	6.6	True	0	-	-	-	10	-	12	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Juanpe	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	30	G	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Luiz Felipe	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	5	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Nobel Mendy	0	-	-	-	3	2	1	-	False	90	32	D	8.2	False	0	-	1	-	37	1	41	-	-	-	1	1	-	2	2
👤 Pacha	0	-	3	-	10	6	-	3	False	90	22	D	7.3	False	0	-	-	-	16	-	23	-	-	-	1	1	1	1	3
👤 Pedro Díaz	0	1	-	-	3	1	-	-	False	26	4	M	6.7	True	0	-	-	-	5	-	6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Randy Nteka	0	-	1	-	6	2	1	1	False	16	11	M	6.3	True	0	-	-	-	3	-	4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Sergio Camello	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	10	F	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Unai López	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	False	12	17	M	6.7	True	0	-	-	-	1	-	4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Álvaro García	1	-	1	-	3	1	1	1	False	26	18	M	7	True	1	-	-	-	4	1	6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Óscar Trejo	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	8	M	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Óscar Valentín	0	-	2	-	9	4	-	-	True	90	23	M	7.3	False	0	-	1	-	33	-	36	-	-	-	1	1	1	2	2

Atletico Madrid — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Ademola Lookman	0	1	-	1	1	1	-	-	False	27	22	F	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	2	-	4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Alex Baena	0	1	1	1	4	1	1	-	False	56	10	M	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	22	-	26	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Alexander Sørloth	0	1	-	-	8	2	1	1	False	90	9	F	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	11	-	15	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Antoine Griezmann	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	7	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Clément Lenglet	0	-	-	-	2	1	1	-	False	63	15	D	6	False	0	0	-	-	-	34	-	40	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
👤 Dávid Hancko	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	17	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Giuliano Simeone	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	20	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jan Oblak	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	True	90	13	G	7.2	False	0	3	6	-	-	24	-	28	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Johnny Cardoso	1	-	1	-	8	3	3	1	False	63	5	M	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	30	-	34	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1
👤 José María Giménez	0	1	2	1	9	4	-	1	False	90	2	D	6.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	56	-	61	-	-	-	1	1	2	1	2
👤 Juan Musso	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	1	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Julián Alvarez	0	1	-	-	2	1	-	1	False	34	19	F	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	6	1	9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Koke	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	6	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Marc Pubill	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	18	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Marcos Llorente	1	-	-	-	1	-	1	-	False	27	14	M	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	13	-	13	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Matteo Ruggeri	0	-	-	-	2	1	1	-	False	56	3	D	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	20	-	22	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
👤 Nahuel Molina	0	5	-	5	7	6	1	-	False	90	16	D	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	43	1	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
👤 Nicolás González	0	4	-	2	11	5	1	-	False	90	23	M	6	False	0	0	-	-	-	32	1	43	-	-	-	2	3	-	1	1
👤 Obed Vargas	0	1	-	-	4	3	-	1	False	34	21	M	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	13	-	16	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Robin Le Normand	0	-	-	-	4	3	1	1	False	34	24	D	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	33	-	37	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 Rodrigo Mendoza	1	-	1	-	6	4	1	1	False	56	4	M	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	22	-	25	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Salvador Esquivel	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	31	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Thiago Almada	0	3	1	2	11	5	1	2	False	90	11	M	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	52	3	59	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1

League standings

Full table

Teams in this match: Rayo Vallecano and Atletico Madrid

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Barcelona		33	28	1	4	87	30	57	85	W W W W W
2	Real Madrid		33	23	5	5	68	31	37	74	W L D W D
3	Villarreal		33	20	5	8	59	38	21	65	W L W D W
4	Atletico Madrid	3-0	33	18	6	9	56	37	19	60	L L L L W
5	Real Betis		33	12	14	7	49	41	8	50	L D D W D
6	Celta Vigo		33	11	11	11	45	43	2	44	L W L L L
7	Getafe		33	13	5	15	28	34	-6	44	W W L W L
8	Real Sociedad		33	11	10	12	52	52	0	43	L W D L D
9	Osasuna		33	11	9	13	39	40	-1	42	W D D L W
10	Athletic Club		33	12	5	16	36	48	-12	41	W L L W L
11	Rayo Vallecano	3-0	33	9	12	12	33	41	-8	39	L W L W D
12	Valencia		33	10	9	14	37	48	-11	39	W L L D W
13	Espanyol		33	10	9	14	37	49	-12	39	L D L L D
14	Elche		33	9	11	13	44	50	-6	38	W L W W W
15	Mallorca		34	10	8	16	42	51	-9	38	W W D L W
16	Girona		34	9	11	14	36	51	-15	38	W D L L L
17	Alaves		33	9	9	15	38	49	-11	36	W D D L W
18	Sevilla		33	9	7	17	40	54	-14	34	L L W L L
19	Levante		33	8	9	16	36	50	-14	33	W L W W D
20	Oviedo		33	6	10	17	26	51	-25	28	L W W D L

Promotion - Champions League (League phase)

Promotion - Europa League (League phase)

Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)

Relegation - LaLiga2

Our prediction i

Full predictions

Teams in this match: Rayo Vallecano and Atletico Madrid

#	Team	MP	Pred Pts	Pred #
1	Barcelona	33	94	1
2	Real Madrid	33	82	2
3	Villarreal	33	73	3
4	Atletico Madrid	33	67	4
5	Real Betis	33	57	5
6	Celta Vigo	33	52	7
7	Getafe	33	52	8
8	Real Sociedad	33	50	8
9	Osasuna	33	48	10
10	Athletic Club	33	48	10
11	Rayo Vallecano	33	46	12
12	Valencia	33	46	13
13	Espanyol	33	45	13
14	Elche	33	43	14
15	Mallorca	34	41	16
16	Girona	34	45	13
17	Alaves	33	42	15
18	Sevilla	33	39	18
19	Levante	33	39	17
20	Oviedo	33	33	20

Promotion - Champions League (League phase)

Promotion - Europa League (League phase)

Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)

Relegation - LaLiga2

Predict the score

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Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

39.7%

Home Win

28.2%

Draw

32.1%

Away Win

Expected Goals

Rayo Vallecano 1.43

Atletico Madrid 1.26

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

Rayo Vallecano

Atletico Madrid

Estadio Municipal de Butarque

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)