Lille vs Aston Villa - Football Platform

Europa League

Aston Villa

61' O. Watkins

12 Mar 2026

18:45

Stade Pierre-Mauroy

First Leg Second Leg

Aggregate 0 - 3

Score Summary

Lille

0 1

FT HT 0–0

Aston Villa

61' O. Watkins

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

43% Win

Lille 1520 1511 ▼ -9

57% Win

Aston Villa 1571 1579 ▲ 9

xPi Expected win probability

42% Win

Lille 0.21 0.30 ▲ 0.09

36% Win

Aston Villa 0.05 0.24 ▲ 0.20

Top Performers

Top Rated

Nabil Bentaleb

Lille

7.9

7.9 rating · 90 min

Most Clinical

Ollie Watkins

Aston Villa

7.5

1 goals

Best Creator

Emiliano Buendía

Aston Villa

6.2

2 key passes · 1 assists

Defensive Leader

Nabil Bentaleb

Lille

7.9

5 tackles · 2 interceptions

Match Momentum

Lille 75% Aston Villa 25%

Key Stats Snapshot

49 Possession 51

7 Shots 9

3 On Target 1

Form Context

Lille

L W L L W

Aston Villa

W W W W W

Smart Insight

Lille controlled momentum for most phases of play.
Aston Villa produced more shot pressure than expected.
Elo movement favors Aston Villa after this result.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 38.8%

Draw 28.5%

Away Win 32.7%

Expected Goals 1.39 - 1.26

Qualification %

Lille 0.0%

Aston Villa 100.0%

Based on 5000 simulations

Standings (Top 6)

View full standings

#	Team	Scr	Pts	Form
1	Lyon		21	L W W W W
2	Aston Villa	0-1	21	W W W W W
3	FC Midtjylland		19	W L W D W
4	Real Betis		17	W W W L W
5	FC Porto		17	D W W D W
6	SC Braga		17	L D W W D

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

49 Possession 51

3 Shots 1

7 Shots 9

5 Offsides 1

2 Shots Off Goal 5

3 Shots On Goal 1

7 Total Shots 9

49 Ball Possession 51

381 Passes Accurate 405

442 Total Passes 470

86% Passes % 86%

2 Blocked Shots 3

0 Goalkeeper Saves 3

11 Fouls 12

0 Red Cards 0

0 Yellow Cards 2

3 Corner Kicks 2

3 Shots Insidebox 7

4 Shots Outsidebox 2

0.32 expected_goals 0.51

0 goals_prevented 0

Lille — Player Statistics

Player	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Aissa Mandi	-	1	-	7	5	-	2	False	90	23	D	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	61	1	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	4	1
👤 Alexsandro Ribeiro	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	4	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Arnaud Bodart	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	16	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Ayyoub Bouaddi	-	1	-	3	1	1	-	False	45	32	M	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	24	-	28	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Benjamin André	-	-	-	2	1	1	-	True	45	21	M	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	1	23	1	24	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Berke Özer	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	1	G	5.9	False	0	1	-	-	-	22	-	24	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Calvin Verdonk	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	24	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Chancel Mbemba	-	-	-	4	3	-	1	False	90	18	D	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	42	-	50	-	-	-	-	-	2	1	-
👤 Félix Correia	-	-	-	4	2	1	1	False	24	27	F	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	2	8	-	10	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
👤 Gaëtan Perrin	1	1	-	8	2	2	-	False	52	28	M	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	13	1	17	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Hakon Arnar Haraldsson	1	1	-	10	2	-	2	False	83	10	M	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	20	-	23	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Matías Fernández	-	-	-	1	-	1	-	False	38	7	F	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	10	-	10	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Nabil Bentaleb	2	1	2	11	8	-	1	False	90	6	M	7.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	68	1	78	-	-	-	-	-	1	2	5
👤 Nathan Ngoy	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	3	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Ngal'ayel Mukau	3	-	2	7	2	-	-	False	66	17	M	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	12	1	13	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Noah Edjouma	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	20	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Olivier Giroud	-	1	-	8	2	1	-	False	90	9	F	6	False	0	0	-	-	2	7	-	8	-	-	-	1	2	-	1	1
👤 Romain Perraud	-	1	-	10	6	2	1	False	90	15	D	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	1	35	-	38	-	-	-	1	2	-	2	3
👤 Saad Boussadia	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	42	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Soriba Diaoune	1	-	-	1	-	-	-	False	12	35	F	6.5	True	0	0	-	-	-	1	-	3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Thomas Meunier	1	-	-	2	1	-	-	False	24	12	D	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	17	-	21	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Tiago Santos	-	-	-	4	3	1	2	False	66	22	D	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	18	-	22	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Zadig Lanssade	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	60	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Aston Villa — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Amadou Onana	0	1	-	1	2	1	1	-	False	90	24	M	7.2	False	0	-	-	-	57	-	61	-	-	-	-	1	-	4	-
👤 Andrés García	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	16	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Douglas Luiz	0	1	-	1	5	4	1	-	False	77	21	M	7.3	False	0	-	-	-	44	1	48	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	3
👤 Emiliano Buendía	0	1	-	-	13	4	4	1	False	83	10	M	6.2	False	1	-	-	-	21	2	28	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	2
👤 Emiliano Martínez	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	23	G	7.2	False	0	3	-	-	30	-	44	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Ezri Konsa	0	1	-	1	6	5	-	1	True	90	4	D	7.3	False	0	-	-	-	63	-	66	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Harvey Elliott	0	1	-	1	2	2	-	-	False	1	9	M	-	True	0	-	-	-	5	-	5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Ian Maatsen	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	12	22	D	6.7	True	0	-	-	-	2	-	2	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 Jadon Sancho	0	2	1	1	10	6	-	1	False	83	19	M	6.9	False	0	-	-	1	33	1	39	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	3
👤 James Wright	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	64	G	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 John McGinn	0	-	-	-	4	2	-	1	False	13	7	M	7.3	True	0	-	-	-	7	-	7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Lamare Bogarde	0	-	-	-	6	5	-	2	False	90	26	D	7.3	False	0	-	-	-	33	1	37	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	2
👤 Leon Bailey	0	1	-	1	2	2	-	1	False	12	31	F	6.9	True	0	-	-	-	3	-	3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Lucas Digne	1	-	1	-	5	3	2	-	False	90	12	D	6.9	False	0	-	-	-	29	-	33	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	3
👤 Marco Bizot	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	40	G	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Morgan Rogers	0	4	1	1	12	2	3	1	False	89	27	M	6.2	False	0	-	-	-	21	2	25	-	-	-	-	3	-	2	-
👤 Ollie Watkins	0	-	-	-	6	2	1	1	False	77	11	F	7.5	False	0	-	1	-	5	-	10	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Pau Torres	0	-	1	-	7	5	-	-	False	90	14	D	7.3	False	0	-	-	-	54	-	66	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	-
👤 Tammy Abraham	0	-	-	-	2	1	-	-	False	13	18	F	6.3	True	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Tyrone Mings	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	5	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Victor Lindelöf	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	3	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

League standings

View standings

Teams in this match: Lille and Aston Villa

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lyon		8	7	0	1	18	5	13	21	L W W W W
2	Aston Villa	0-1	8	7	0	1	14	6	8	21	W W W W W
3	FC Midtjylland		8	6	1	1	18	8	10	19	W L W D W
4	Real Betis		8	5	2	1	13	7	6	17	W W W L W
5	FC Porto		8	5	2	1	13	7	6	17	D W W D W
6	SC Braga		8	5	2	1	11	5	6	17	L D W W D
7	SC Freiburg		8	5	2	1	10	4	6	17	W D W W L
8	AS Roma		8	5	1	2	13	6	7	16	W W W W D
9	Genk		8	5	1	2	11	7	4	16	W W L W W
10	Bologna		8	4	3	1	14	7	7	15	D W W D W
11	VfB Stuttgart		8	5	0	3	15	9	6	15	W W W L W
12	Ferencvarosi TC		8	4	3	1	12	11	1	15	W D W D L
13	Nottingham Forest		8	4	2	2	15	7	8	14	D W W L W
14	Plzen		8	3	5	0	8	3	5	14	D D D D W
15	FK Crvena Zvezda		8	4	2	2	7	6	1	14	W W W W D
16	Celta Vigo		8	4	1	3	15	11	4	13	W L L W D
17	PAOK		8	3	3	2	17	14	3	12	W D D W L
18	Lille	0-1	8	4	0	4	12	9	3	12	L W L L W
19	Fenerbahce		8	3	3	2	10	7	3	12	D D W L D
20	Panathinaikos		8	3	3	2	11	9	2	12	W W D D D
21	Celtic		8	3	2	3	13	15	-2	11	L W L D W
22	Ludogorets		8	3	1	4	12	15	-3	10	L W D L W
23	Dinamo Zagreb		8	3	1	4	12	16	-4	10	L L L W L
24	Brann		8	2	3	3	9	11	-2	9	D D L D L
25	BSC Young Boys		8	3	0	5	10	16	-6	9	L L W L L
26	Sturm Graz		8	2	1	5	5	11	-6	7	D L L L W
27	FCSB		8	2	1	5	9	16	-7	7	L L W L D
28	GO Ahead Eagles		8	2	1	5	6	14	-8	7	L L L L D
29	Feyenoord		8	2	0	6	11	15	-4	6	L L L W L
30	FC Basel 1893		8	2	0	6	9	13	-4	6	W L L L L
31	Red Bull Salzburg		8	2	0	6	10	15	-5	6	W L L W L
32	Rangers		8	1	1	6	5	14	-9	4	L D L W L
33	Nice		8	1	0	7	7	15	-8	3	L L L W L
34	Utrecht		8	0	1	7	5	15	-10	1	D L L L L
35	Malmo FF		8	0	1	7	4	15	-11	1	L L L L L
36	Maccabi Tel Aviv		8	0	1	7	2	22	-20	1	L L L L L

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Predict the score

Loading API predictions…

CatBoost Prediction

Model not available yet. Run train_catboost to train a model.

Qualification Prediction Based on 5000 simulations

Lille

0.0%

Aston Villa

100.0%

Match Type: Two-leg tie

First leg: Lille 0-1 Aston Villa

Current aggregate: 3-0

Method: Monte Carlo (Dixon-Coles + Elo fallback, elo-weighted ET/PEN)

How was this calculated?

We simulate this knockout matchup using scoreline probabilities from Dixon-Coles where available, with an Elo fallback when needed. For two-leg ties we aggregate both legs and count who advances; for single-match knockouts and aggregate-level ties we resolve the shootout step with an elo-weighted draw rather than a 50/50 flip.

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

38.8%

Home Win

28.5%

Draw

32.7%

Away Win

Expected Goals

Lille 1.39

Aston Villa 1.26

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

Lille

Aston Villa

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Qualification %

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)