Bologna vs AS Roma - Football Platform

Europa League

AS Roma

50' F. Bernardeschi
71' L. Pellegrini

12 Mar 2026

18:45

First Leg Second Leg

Aggregate 5 - 4

Score Summary

Bologna

1 1

FT HT 0–0

AS Roma

F. Bernardeschi 50'

71' L. Pellegrini

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

45% Win

Bologna 1523 1524 ▲ 1

55% Win

AS Roma 1558 1557 ▼ -1

xPi Expected win probability

37% Win

Bologna 0.09 -0.03 ▼ -0.12

40% Win

AS Roma 0.34 0.30 ▼ -0.04

Top Performers

Top Rated

Federico Bernardeschi

Bologna

8.6

8.6 rating · 90 min

Most Clinical

Federico Bernardeschi

Bologna

8.6

1 goals

Best Creator

João Mário

Bologna

6.2

3 key passes · 0 assists

Defensive Leader

Zeki Çelik

AS Roma

6.3

4 tackles · 3 interceptions

Match Momentum

Bologna 67% AS Roma 33%

Key Stats Snapshot

51 Possession 49

13 Shots 8

4 On Target 2

Form Context

Bologna

D W W D W

AS Roma

W W W W D

Smart Insight

Bologna controlled momentum for most phases of play.
Bologna generated the clearer shot volume edge.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 34.1%

Draw 28.6%

Away Win 37.4%

Expected Goals 1.29 - 1.36

Qualification %

Bologna 100.0%

AS Roma 0.0%

Based on 5000 simulations

Standings (Top 6)

View full standings

#	Team	Pts	Form
1	Lyon	21	L W W W W
2	Aston Villa	21	W W W W W
3	FC Midtjylland	19	W L W D W
4	Real Betis	17	W W W L W
5	FC Porto	17	D W W D W
6	SC Braga	17	L D W W D

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

51 Possession 49

4 Shots 2

13 Shots 8

1 Offsides 4

6 Shots Off Goal 4

4 Shots On Goal 2

13 Total Shots 8

51 Ball Possession 49

312 Passes Accurate 303

412 Total Passes 391

76% Passes % 77%

3 Blocked Shots 2

0 Goalkeeper Saves 3

13 Fouls 18

0 Red Cards 0

3 Yellow Cards 2

7 Corner Kicks 3

7 Shots Insidebox 7

6 Shots Outsidebox 1

1.46 expected_goals 1.35

0 goals_prevented 0

Bologna — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Benjamín Domínguez	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	30	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Charalampos Lykogiannis	0	-	-	-	2	1	-	-	False	11	22	D	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	5	1	9	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
👤 Federico Bernardeschi	0	8	-	5	15	8	2	1	False	90	10	F	8.6	False	0	0	-	1	-	20	2	26	-	-	-	3	3	-	-	2
👤 Federico Ravaglia	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	13	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jens Odgaard	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	21	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jhon Lucumí	0	1	-	1	10	6	1	-	False	90	26	D	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	32	1	43	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	3
👤 Jonathan Rowe	0	8	-	4	18	9	-	2	False	71	11	F	7.3	False	1	0	-	-	-	10	1	18	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	1
👤 João Mário	1	3	4	2	15	8	2	5	False	85	17	D	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	30	3	37	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Juan Miranda	1	1	-	1	5	3	1	2	False	79	33	D	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	34	1	41	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	-
👤 Lewis Ferguson	0	-	-	-	9	6	-	1	True	90	19	M	7	False	0	0	-	-	-	43	-	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Martin Vitík	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	False	11	41	D	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	3	-	5	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	-
👤 Nadir Zortea	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	False	10	20	D	6.6	True	0	0	-	-	-	4	-	8	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1
👤 Nicolò Cambiaghi	0	2	-	2	5	3	-	1	False	19	28	F	6.6	True	0	0	-	-	-	4	-	6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Nicolò Casale	1	1	-	-	8	2	2	-	False	84	16	D	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	24	1	30	-	-	-	-	1	1	2	2
👤 Nikola Moro	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	6	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Remo Freuler	0	-	-	-	4	1	2	-	False	90	8	M	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	28	-	32	-	-	-	-	1	1	2	1
👤 Riccardo Orsolini	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	7	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Santiago Castro	0	2	-	1	14	6	3	2	False	79	9	F	7	False	0	0	-	-	1	15	-	19	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Simon Sohm	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	23	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Thijs Dallinga	0	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	False	11	24	F	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	3	-	3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Tommaso Pobega	0	1	-	1	9	8	-	2	False	90	4	M	7.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	23	-	30	-	-	-	1	3	-	1	5
👤 Torbjørn Heggem	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	14	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Łukasz Skorupski	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	False	90	1	G	6.3	False	0	1	-	-	-	32	-	50	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-

AS Roma — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Bryan Cristante	1	1	-	1	9	4	1	-	True	90	4	F	6.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	32	-	42	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1
👤 Bryan Zaragoza	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	False	45	97	F	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	10	-	12	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Daniele Ghilardi	0	-	1	-	14	11	1	2	False	90	87	D	7.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	38	-	45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	5
👤 Devyne Rensch	0	-	-	-	5	3	1	-	False	58	2	M	6.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	20	1	25	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	3
👤 Donyell Malen	0	6	1	1	11	4	-	3	False	90	14	F	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	1	7	1	10	-	-	-	1	2	-	-	-
👤 Evan Ndicka	0	-	-	-	10	5	2	2	False	90	5	D	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	41	-	48	-	-	-	-	1	-	6	1
👤 Giorgio De Marzi	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	70	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jan Ziółkowski	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	24	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Konstantinos Tsimikas	0	-	-	-	2	-	2	-	False	32	12	D	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	5	-	5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Lorenzo Pellegrini	0	-	1	-	2	-	1	-	False	24	7	M	7.6	True	0	0	-	1	-	4	3	7	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Mario Hermoso	0	-	1	-	1	-	-	-	False	25	22	D	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	11	-	15	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Mile Svilar	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	99	G	7.2	False	0	1	3	-	-	25	-	41	-	0	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 Neil El Aynaoui	0	-	2	-	10	4	2	-	False	66	8	M	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	23	-	26	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Niccolò Pisilli	0	1	1	-	13	8	2	2	False	90	61	M	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	37	-	45	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	3
👤 Pierluigi Gollini	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	95	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Robinio Vaz	0	2	-	1	9	5	1	2	False	45	78	F	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	3	4	-	6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Stephan El Shaarawy	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	92	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Wesley	1	2	5	1	17	3	4	1	False	90	43	M	6	False	0	0	-	-	-	25	1	37	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1
👤 Zeki Çelik	0	-	5	-	14	6	1	-	False	65	19	D	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	24	-	27	-	-	-	-	-	2	3	4

League standings

View standings

Teams in this match: Bologna and AS Roma

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lyon		8	7	0	1	18	5	13	21	L W W W W
2	Aston Villa		8	7	0	1	14	6	8	21	W W W W W
3	FC Midtjylland		8	6	1	1	18	8	10	19	W L W D W
4	Real Betis		8	5	2	1	13	7	6	17	W W W L W
5	FC Porto		8	5	2	1	13	7	6	17	D W W D W
6	SC Braga		8	5	2	1	11	5	6	17	L D W W D
7	SC Freiburg		8	5	2	1	10	4	6	17	W D W W L
8	AS Roma	1-1	8	5	1	2	13	6	7	16	W W W W D
9	Genk		8	5	1	2	11	7	4	16	W W L W W
10	Bologna	1-1	8	4	3	1	14	7	7	15	D W W D W
11	VfB Stuttgart		8	5	0	3	15	9	6	15	W W W L W
12	Ferencvarosi TC		8	4	3	1	12	11	1	15	W D W D L
13	Nottingham Forest		8	4	2	2	15	7	8	14	D W W L W
14	Plzen		8	3	5	0	8	3	5	14	D D D D W
15	FK Crvena Zvezda		8	4	2	2	7	6	1	14	W W W W D
16	Celta Vigo		8	4	1	3	15	11	4	13	W L L W D
17	PAOK		8	3	3	2	17	14	3	12	W D D W L
18	Lille		8	4	0	4	12	9	3	12	L W L L W
19	Fenerbahce		8	3	3	2	10	7	3	12	D D W L D
20	Panathinaikos		8	3	3	2	11	9	2	12	W W D D D
21	Celtic		8	3	2	3	13	15	-2	11	L W L D W
22	Ludogorets		8	3	1	4	12	15	-3	10	L W D L W
23	Dinamo Zagreb		8	3	1	4	12	16	-4	10	L L L W L
24	Brann		8	2	3	3	9	11	-2	9	D D L D L
25	BSC Young Boys		8	3	0	5	10	16	-6	9	L L W L L
26	Sturm Graz		8	2	1	5	5	11	-6	7	D L L L W
27	FCSB		8	2	1	5	9	16	-7	7	L L W L D
28	GO Ahead Eagles		8	2	1	5	6	14	-8	7	L L L L D
29	Feyenoord		8	2	0	6	11	15	-4	6	L L L W L
30	FC Basel 1893		8	2	0	6	9	13	-4	6	W L L L L
31	Red Bull Salzburg		8	2	0	6	10	15	-5	6	W L L W L
32	Rangers		8	1	1	6	5	14	-9	4	L D L W L
33	Nice		8	1	0	7	7	15	-8	3	L L L W L
34	Utrecht		8	0	1	7	5	15	-10	1	D L L L L
35	Malmo FF		8	0	1	7	4	15	-11	1	L L L L L
36	Maccabi Tel Aviv		8	0	1	7	2	22	-20	1	L L L L L

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Predict the score

Loading API predictions…

CatBoost Prediction

Model not available yet. Run train_catboost to train a model.

Qualification Prediction Based on 5000 simulations

Bologna

100.0%

AS Roma

0.0%

Match Type: Two-leg tie

First leg: Bologna 1-1 AS Roma

Current aggregate: 4-5

Method: Monte Carlo (Dixon-Coles + Elo fallback, elo-weighted ET/PEN)

How was this calculated?

We simulate this knockout matchup using scoreline probabilities from Dixon-Coles where available, with an Elo fallback when needed. For two-leg ties we aggregate both legs and count who advances; for single-match knockouts and aggregate-level ties we resolve the shootout step with an elo-weighted draw rather than a 50/50 flip.

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

34.1%

Home Win

28.6%

Draw

37.4%

Away Win

Expected Goals

Bologna 1.29

AS Roma 1.36

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

Bologna

AS Roma

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Qualification %

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)