Aston Villa vs Lille - Football Platform

Europa League

Lille

54' J. McGinn
86' L. Bailey

19 Mar 2026

21:00

Villa Park

First Leg Second Leg

Aggregate 3 - 0

Stadium

Villa Park

Birmingham, England

Capacity: 42824 Surface: grass Address: Trinity Road

Score Summary

Aston Villa

2 0

FT HT 0–0

Lille

J. McGinn 54'
L. Bailey 86'

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

57% Win

Aston Villa 1569 1577 ▲ 9

43% Win

Lille 1522 1513 ▼ -9

xPi Expected win probability

35% Win

Aston Villa 0.09 0.24 ▲ 0.15

46% Win

Lille 0.23 0.30 ▲ 0.07

Top Performers

Top Rated

John McGinn

Aston Villa

7.7

7.7 rating · 74 min

Most Clinical

John McGinn

Aston Villa

7.7

1 goals

Best Creator

Jadon Sancho

Aston Villa

7.3

2 key passes · 1 assists

Defensive Leader

Douglas Luiz

Aston Villa

7.3

7 tackles · 2 interceptions

Match Momentum

Aston Villa 50% Lille 50%

Key Stats Snapshot

52 Possession 48

8 Shots 8

3 On Target 3

Form Context

Aston Villa

W W W W W

Lille

L W L L W

Smart Insight

Momentum stayed balanced with no clear sustained dominance.
Elo movement favors Aston Villa after this result.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 30.4%

Draw 28.1%

Away Win 41.5%

Expected Goals 1.22 - 1.46

Qualification %

Aston Villa 100.0%

Lille 0.0%

Based on 5000 simulations

Standings (Top 6)

View full standings

#	Team	Scr	Pts	Form
1	Lyon		21	L W W W W
2	Aston Villa	2-0	21	W W W W W
3	FC Midtjylland		19	W L W D W
4	Real Betis		17	W W W L W
5	FC Porto		17	D W W D W
6	SC Braga		17	L D W W D

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

52 Possession 48

3 Shots 3

8 Shots 8

1 Offsides 3

2 Shots Off Goal 4

3 Shots On Goal 3

8 Total Shots 8

52 Ball Possession 48

425 Passes Accurate 404

502 Total Passes 454

85% Passes % 89%

3 Blocked Shots 1

3 Goalkeeper Saves 1

7 Fouls 10

0 Red Cards 0

1 Yellow Cards 1

5 Corner Kicks 5

5 Shots Insidebox 5

3 Shots Outsidebox 3

1.85 expected_goals 0.39

0 goals_prevented 0

Aston Villa — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Amadou Onana	0	-	1	-	9	6	-	2	False	90	24	M	7.3	False	0	-	-	-	46	-	46	-	-	-	1	1	-	3	2
👤 Andrés García	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	16	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Douglas Luiz	1	2	1	1	15	10	2	2	False	90	21	M	7.3	False	0	-	-	-	48	1	57	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	7
👤 Emiliano Buendía	0	-	-	-	3	3	-	-	False	16	10	M	7	True	0	-	-	-	7	1	9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Emiliano Martínez	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	23	G	7	False	0	3	-	-	26	1	36	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Ezri Konsa	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	4	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Harvey Elliott	0	1	-	-	1	-	-	-	False	9	9	M	6.3	True	0	-	-	-	6	-	7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Ian Maatsen	0	3	2	1	11	2	-	1	False	90	22	D	6.2	False	0	-	-	-	27	-	33	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jadon Sancho	0	4	-	1	8	4	-	1	False	84	19	M	7.3	False	1	-	-	-	22	2	26	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	1
👤 James Wright	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	64	G	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 John McGinn	0	2	1	1	6	2	1	1	True	74	7	M	7.7	False	0	-	1	-	22	1	23	-	-	-	1	2	-	-	-
👤 Lamare Bogarde	0	-	-	-	4	2	1	1	False	74	26	D	7.2	False	0	-	-	-	45	-	49	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	-
👤 Leon Bailey	0	1	-	1	2	1	-	-	False	9	31	F	7.7	True	0	-	1	-	2	-	3	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Lucas Digne	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	12	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Marco Bizot	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	40	G	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Matty Cash	0	-	1	-	3	1	1	-	False	16	2	D	6.6	True	0	-	-	-	4	-	4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Morgan Rogers	0	2	-	1	6	3	-	1	False	84	27	M	6.9	False	0	-	-	-	28	2	39	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 Ollie Watkins	0	1	-	1	10	6	2	1	False	34	11	F	7.2	True	1	-	-	-	3	1	10	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Pau Torres	0	1	-	-	3	1	-	-	False	90	14	D	6.9	False	0	-	-	-	73	-	85	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
👤 Tammy Abraham	0	1	-	-	7	5	-	-	False	56	18	F	6.9	False	0	-	-	1	7	1	14	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Tyrone Mings	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	5	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Victor Lindelöf	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	False	90	3	D	7.2	False	0	-	-	-	59	-	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Lille — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Aissa Mandi	0	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	False	17	23	D	6.2	True	0	0	-	-	-	11	-	11	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Alexsandro Ribeiro	0	-	1	-	7	4	-	-	False	73	4	D	7.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	40	1	46	-	-	-	-	1	3	2	2
👤 Arnaud Bodart	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	16	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Ayyoub Bouaddi	0	-	-	-	8	3	1	1	False	66	32	M	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	21	-	22	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	1
👤 Berke Özer	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	False	90	1	G	7.3	False	0	2	1	-	-	18	-	21	-	0	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 Calvin Verdonk	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	24	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Chancel Mbemba	0	-	1	-	11	4	1	-	False	90	18	D	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	54	-	59	-	-	-	-	-	-	5	1
👤 Félix Correia	1	-	1	-	6	3	1	1	False	66	27	F	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	12	1	14	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Hakon Arnar Haraldsson	0	-	1	-	3	-	-	-	False	24	10	M	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	17	1	21	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Lilian Baret	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	39	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Matías Fernández	0	1	-	1	2	2	-	-	False	24	7	F	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	4	-	6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Nabil Bentaleb	0	-	1	-	6	3	-	1	False	90	6	M	7	False	0	0	-	-	-	63	-	67	-	-	-	2	2	-	1	-
👤 Nathan Ngoy	0	1	1	-	6	3	1	-	False	90	3	D	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	65	1	69	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	2
👤 Ngal'ayel Mukau	0	4	-	3	13	5	3	-	False	66	17	F	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	20	-	23	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Noah Edjouma	0	2	-	1	3	2	-	1	False	24	20	F	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	6	-	7	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	-
👤 Olivier Giroud	0	1	1	-	7	3	1	-	True	90	9	F	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	3	5	-	8	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	1
👤 Romain Perraud	0	1	-	-	8	4	1	1	False	90	15	M	6.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	29	1	33	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Saad Boussadia	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	42	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Soriba Diaoune	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	35	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Thomas Meunier	0	1	-	1	6	5	1	-	False	81	12	M	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	36	-	43	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	3
👤 Tiago Santos	0	1	-	-	1	-	-	-	False	9	22	D	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	3	-	4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Zadig Lanssade	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	60	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

League standings

View standings

Teams in this match: Aston Villa and Lille

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lyon		8	7	0	1	18	5	13	21	L W W W W
2	Aston Villa	2-0	8	7	0	1	14	6	8	21	W W W W W
3	FC Midtjylland		8	6	1	1	18	8	10	19	W L W D W
4	Real Betis		8	5	2	1	13	7	6	17	W W W L W
5	FC Porto		8	5	2	1	13	7	6	17	D W W D W
6	SC Braga		8	5	2	1	11	5	6	17	L D W W D
7	SC Freiburg		8	5	2	1	10	4	6	17	W D W W L
8	AS Roma		8	5	1	2	13	6	7	16	W W W W D
9	Genk		8	5	1	2	11	7	4	16	W W L W W
10	Bologna		8	4	3	1	14	7	7	15	D W W D W
11	VfB Stuttgart		8	5	0	3	15	9	6	15	W W W L W
12	Ferencvarosi TC		8	4	3	1	12	11	1	15	W D W D L
13	Nottingham Forest		8	4	2	2	15	7	8	14	D W W L W
14	Plzen		8	3	5	0	8	3	5	14	D D D D W
15	FK Crvena Zvezda		8	4	2	2	7	6	1	14	W W W W D
16	Celta Vigo		8	4	1	3	15	11	4	13	W L L W D
17	PAOK		8	3	3	2	17	14	3	12	W D D W L
18	Lille	2-0	8	4	0	4	12	9	3	12	L W L L W
19	Fenerbahce		8	3	3	2	10	7	3	12	D D W L D
20	Panathinaikos		8	3	3	2	11	9	2	12	W W D D D
21	Celtic		8	3	2	3	13	15	-2	11	L W L D W
22	Ludogorets		8	3	1	4	12	15	-3	10	L W D L W
23	Dinamo Zagreb		8	3	1	4	12	16	-4	10	L L L W L
24	Brann		8	2	3	3	9	11	-2	9	D D L D L
25	BSC Young Boys		8	3	0	5	10	16	-6	9	L L W L L
26	Sturm Graz		8	2	1	5	5	11	-6	7	D L L L W
27	FCSB		8	2	1	5	9	16	-7	7	L L W L D
28	GO Ahead Eagles		8	2	1	5	6	14	-8	7	L L L L D
29	Feyenoord		8	2	0	6	11	15	-4	6	L L L W L
30	FC Basel 1893		8	2	0	6	9	13	-4	6	W L L L L
31	Red Bull Salzburg		8	2	0	6	10	15	-5	6	W L L W L
32	Rangers		8	1	1	6	5	14	-9	4	L D L W L
33	Nice		8	1	0	7	7	15	-8	3	L L L W L
34	Utrecht		8	0	1	7	5	15	-10	1	D L L L L
35	Malmo FF		8	0	1	7	4	15	-11	1	L L L L L
36	Maccabi Tel Aviv		8	0	1	7	2	22	-20	1	L L L L L

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Predict the score

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CatBoost Prediction

Model not available yet. Run train_catboost to train a model.

Qualification Prediction Based on 5000 simulations

Aston Villa

100.0%

Lille

0.0%

Match Type: Two-leg tie

First leg: Lille 0-1 Aston Villa

Current aggregate: 3-0

Method: Monte Carlo (Dixon-Coles + Elo fallback, elo-weighted ET/PEN)

How was this calculated?

We simulate this knockout matchup using scoreline probabilities from Dixon-Coles where available, with an Elo fallback when needed. For two-leg ties we aggregate both legs and count who advances; for single-match knockouts and aggregate-level ties we resolve the shootout step with an elo-weighted draw rather than a 50/50 flip.

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

30.4%

Home Win

28.1%

Draw

41.5%

Away Win

Expected Goals

Aston Villa 1.22

Lille 1.46

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

Aston Villa

Lille

Villa Park

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Qualification %

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)