Nottingham Forest vs FC Porto - Football Platform

Europa League

FC Porto

12' M. Gibbs-White

16 Apr 2026

21:00

City Ground

First Leg Second Leg

Aggregate 2 - 1

Score Summary

Nottingham Forest

1 0

FT HT 1–0

FC Porto

M. Gibbs-White 12'

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

44% Win

Nottingham Forest 1498 1509 ▲ 11

56% Win

FC Porto 1538 1527 ▼ -11

xPi Expected win probability

41% Win

Nottingham Forest 0.22 0.22 ▲ 0.00

37% Win

FC Porto 0.38 0.35 ▼ -0.03

Top Performers

Top Rated

Neco Williams

Nottingham Forest

8.3

8.3 rating · 90 min

Most Clinical

Morgan Gibbs-White

Nottingham Forest

7.6

1 goals

Best Creator

Neco Williams

Nottingham Forest

8.3

4 key passes · 1 assists

Defensive Leader

Neco Williams

Nottingham Forest

8.3

3 tackles · 2 interceptions

Match Momentum

Nottingham Forest 83% FC Porto 17%

Key Stats Snapshot

61 Possession 39

19 Shots 9

5 On Target 1

Form Context

Nottingham Forest

D W W L W

FC Porto

D W W D W

Smart Insight

Nottingham Forest controlled momentum for most phases of play.
Nottingham Forest generated the clearer shot volume edge.
Elo movement favors Nottingham Forest after this result.

Prediction (catboost)

Home Win 29.5%

Draw 22.7%

Away Win 47.8%

Qualification %

Nottingham Forest 100.0%

FC Porto 0.0%

Based on 5000 simulations

Standings (Top 6)

View full standings

#	Team	Scr	Pts	Form
1	Lyon		21	L W W W W
2	Aston Villa		21	W W W W W
3	FC Midtjylland		19	W L W D W
4	Real Betis		17	W W W L W
5	FC Porto	1-0	17	D W W D W
6	SC Braga		17	L D W W D

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

61 Possession 39

5 Shots 1

19 Shots 9

2 Offsides 0

9 Shots Off Goal 6

5 Shots On Goal 1

19 Total Shots 9

61 Ball Possession 39

462 Passes Accurate 258

515 Total Passes 332

90% Passes % 78%

5 Blocked Shots 2

1 Goalkeeper Saves 4

16 Fouls 9

0 Red Cards 1

1 Yellow Cards 3

7 Corner Kicks 0

10 Shots Insidebox 4

9 Shots Outsidebox 5

1.83 expected_goals 1.05

0 goals_prevented 0

Nottingham Forest — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Callum Hudson-Odoi	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	False	27	7	F	7.5	True	-	-	-	-	21	4	21	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Chris Wood	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	False	16	11	F	6.7	False	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Dan Ndoye	0	3	1	-	11	2	2	1	False	65	14	M	6.6	False	-	-	-	1	25	2	30	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Dilane Bakwa	0	-	-	-	2	1	1	1	False	18	29	F	6.9	True	-	-	-	-	5	2	7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Ibrahim Sangaré	0	1	1	1	12	7	1	-	False	90	6	M	7.9	False	-	-	-	-	66	-	74	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	4
👤 Igor Jesus	0	1	-	-	12	4	3	1	False	74	19	F	6.3	True	-	-	-	-	16	2	22	-	-	-	3	4	-	-	-
👤 Jair	0	-	-	-	5	4	1	-	False	90	23	D	7.3	False	-	-	-	-	39	1	43	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	3
👤 James McAtee	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	24	M	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jimmy Sinclair	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	61	M	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Keehan Willows	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	67	G	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Lorenzo Lucca	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	20	F	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Matz Sels	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	26	G	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Morato	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	18	4	D	6.3	True	-	-	-	-	6	-	8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Morgan Gibbs-White	0	-	1	-	5	-	1	-	True	90	10	M	7.6	False	-	-	1	1	42	-	47	-	-	-	1	2	-	2	-
👤 Murillo	0	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	False	72	5	D	6.9	False	-	-	-	-	41	-	43	-	-	-	-	2	-	1	-
👤 Neco Williams	0	5	-	3	12	8	1	2	False	90	3	D	8.3	False	1	-	-	-	59	4	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	3
👤 Nicolás Domínguez	0	2	-	1	9	5	2	-	False	90	16	M	6.3	False	-	-	-	-	58	-	63	-	-	-	-	3	-	-	4
👤 Nikola Milenković	0	-	-	-	1	-	1	-	False	25	31	D	6.3	True	-	-	-	-	7	-	7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Ola Aina	0	1	1	1	8	5	1	1	False	90	34	D	7.3	False	-	-	-	-	38	1	41	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1
👤 Omari Hutchinson	1	1	-	-	5	2	2	1	False	45	21	M	6.5	False	-	-	-	-	15	-	18	-	-	-	1	2	-	-	1
👤 Ryan Yates	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	22	M	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Stefan Ortega	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	27	G	7.3	False	-	1	-	-	18	-	23	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Zach Abbott	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	44	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

FC Porto — Player Statistics

Player	cards.red	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Alan Varela	0	0	-	1	-	3	2	-	2	False	45	22	M	6.9	True	-	0	-	-	-	23	1	29	-	-	-	-	1	2	-	-
👤 Alberto Costa	0	1	-	-	-	8	5	1	1	False	45	20	D	6.2	False	-	0	-	-	-	4	1	7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	4
👤 Borja Sainz	0	0	3	-	-	6	2	-	2	False	45	17	F	6.5	False	-	0	-	-	-	5	-	5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Cláudio Ramos	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	14	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Deniz Gül	0	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	False	24	27	F	6.6	True	-	0	-	-	-	3	1	3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Diogo Costa	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	True	90	99	G	7.6	False	-	1	4	-	-	28	-	45	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Dominik Prpić	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	21	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Francisco Moura	0	0	-	-	-	8	4	1	1	False	45	74	D	6.6	True	-	0	-	-	-	21	-	24	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Gabri Veiga	0	0	-	-	-	2	1	1	1	False	45	10	M	6.3	False	-	0	-	-	-	9	1	14	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Gabriel Brás	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	73	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jakub Kiwior	0	0	-	-	-	5	4	-	2	False	45	4	D	7.2	True	-	0	-	-	-	23	1	25	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Jan Bednarek	1	0	-	-	-	1	-	1	-	False	8	5	D	3	False	0	0	-	-	-	8	-	8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 João Costa	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	24	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Pablo Rosario	0	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	False	90	13	M	6.3	False	-	0	-	-	-	28	-	34	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
👤 Pepê	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	11	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Rodrigo Mora	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	86	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Seko Fofana	0	0	4	1	3	7	5	-	-	False	90	42	M	6.9	False	-	0	-	-	-	29	1	34	-	-	-	-	2	-	2	1
👤 Terem Moffi	0	1	3	-	-	11	4	1	2	False	66	29	F	6.2	False	-	0	-	-	-	2	-	8	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	1
👤 Thiago Silva	0	0	-	-	-	4	3	-	1	False	90	3	D	6.9	False	-	0	-	-	-	29	-	39	-	-	-	-	-	3	1	-
👤 Tiago Silva	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	58	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Victor Froholdt	0	0	1	1	-	8	4	1	-	False	45	8	M	6.3	True	-	0	-	-	-	13	-	15	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	2
👤 William Gomes	0	0	2	2	1	15	5	3	1	False	90	7	F	6.7	False	-	0	-	-	-	10	-	13	-	-	-	-	2	-	-	3
👤 Zaidu Sanusi	0	0	-	-	-	5	4	-	1	False	45	12	D	6.6	False	-	0	-	-	-	16	-	20	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	2

League standings

View standings

Teams in this match: Nottingham Forest and FC Porto

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lyon		8	7	0	1	18	5	13	21	L W W W W
2	Aston Villa		8	7	0	1	14	6	8	21	W W W W W
3	FC Midtjylland		8	6	1	1	18	8	10	19	W L W D W
4	Real Betis		8	5	2	1	13	7	6	17	W W W L W
5	FC Porto	1-0	8	5	2	1	13	7	6	17	D W W D W
6	SC Braga		8	5	2	1	11	5	6	17	L D W W D
7	SC Freiburg		8	5	2	1	10	4	6	17	W D W W L
8	AS Roma		8	5	1	2	13	6	7	16	W W W W D
9	Genk		8	5	1	2	11	7	4	16	W W L W W
10	Bologna		8	4	3	1	14	7	7	15	D W W D W
11	VfB Stuttgart		8	5	0	3	15	9	6	15	W W W L W
12	Ferencvarosi TC		8	4	3	1	12	11	1	15	W D W D L
13	Nottingham Forest	1-0	8	4	2	2	15	7	8	14	D W W L W
14	Plzen		8	3	5	0	8	3	5	14	D D D D W
15	FK Crvena Zvezda		8	4	2	2	7	6	1	14	W W W W D
16	Celta Vigo		8	4	1	3	15	11	4	13	W L L W D
17	PAOK		8	3	3	2	17	14	3	12	W D D W L
18	Lille		8	4	0	4	12	9	3	12	L W L L W
19	Fenerbahce		8	3	3	2	10	7	3	12	D D W L D
20	Panathinaikos		8	3	3	2	11	9	2	12	W W D D D
21	Celtic		8	3	2	3	13	15	-2	11	L W L D W
22	Ludogorets		8	3	1	4	12	15	-3	10	L W D L W
23	Dinamo Zagreb		8	3	1	4	12	16	-4	10	L L L W L
24	Brann		8	2	3	3	9	11	-2	9	D D L D L
25	BSC Young Boys		8	3	0	5	10	16	-6	9	L L W L L
26	Sturm Graz		8	2	1	5	5	11	-6	7	D L L L W
27	FCSB		8	2	1	5	9	16	-7	7	L L W L D
28	GO Ahead Eagles		8	2	1	5	6	14	-8	7	L L L L D
29	Feyenoord		8	2	0	6	11	15	-4	6	L L L W L
30	FC Basel 1893		8	2	0	6	9	13	-4	6	W L L L L
31	Red Bull Salzburg		8	2	0	6	10	15	-5	6	W L L W L
32	Rangers		8	1	1	6	5	14	-9	4	L D L W L
33	Nice		8	1	0	7	7	15	-8	3	L L L W L
34	Utrecht		8	0	1	7	5	15	-10	1	D L L L L
35	Malmo FF		8	0	1	7	4	15	-11	1	L L L L L
36	Maccabi Tel Aviv		8	0	1	7	2	22	-20	1	L L L L L

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Predict the score

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CatBoost Prediction

Model not available yet. Run train_catboost to train a model.

Qualification Prediction Based on 5000 simulations

Nottingham Forest

100.0%

FC Porto

0.0%

Match Type: Two-leg tie

First leg: FC Porto 1-1 Nottingham Forest

Current aggregate: 2-1

Method: Monte Carlo (Dixon-Coles + Elo fallback, elo-weighted ET/PEN)

How was this calculated?

We simulate this knockout matchup using scoreline probabilities from Dixon-Coles where available, with an Elo fallback when needed. For two-leg ties we aggregate both legs and count who advances; for single-match knockouts and aggregate-level ties we resolve the shootout step with an elo-weighted draw rather than a 50/50 flip.

Our predictions

catboost

Home Win 29.5%

Draw 22.7%

Away Win 47.8%

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

38.1%

Home Win

28.5%

Draw

33.4%

Away Win

Expected Goals

Nottingham Forest 1.38

FC Porto 1.27

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

Nottingham Forest

FC Porto

Prediction (catboost)

Qualification %

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

catboost

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)