Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa

Europa League

Aston Villa

71' C. Wood

30 Apr 2026

21:00

City Ground

First Leg Second Leg

Aggregate 1 - 0

Score Summary

Nottingham Forest

1 0

FT HT 0–0

Aston Villa

C. Wood 71'

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

40% Win

Nottingham Forest 1526 1526 — 0

60% Win

Aston Villa 1594 1594 — 0

xPi Expected win probability

45% Win

Nottingham Forest 0.22 0.22 — 0.00

35% Win

Aston Villa 0.24 0.24 — 0.00

Top Performers

Top Rated

Elliot Anderson

Nottingham Forest

7.9

7.9 rating · 92 min

Most Clinical

Chris Wood

Nottingham Forest

7.0

1 goals

Best Creator

Omari Hutchinson

Nottingham Forest

7.2

3 key passes · 0 assists

Defensive Leader

Elliot Anderson

Nottingham Forest

7.9

3 tackles · 2 interceptions

Match Momentum

Nottingham Forest 62% Aston Villa 38%

Key Stats Snapshot

51 Possession 49

11 Shots 9

5 On Target 3

Form Context

Nottingham Forest

D W W L W

Aston Villa

W W W W W

Smart Insight

Nottingham Forest controlled momentum for most phases of play.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 41.3%

Draw 28.2%

Away Win 30.5%

Expected Goals 1.45 - 1.22

Qualification %

Nottingham Forest 64.8%

Aston Villa 35.2%

Based on 5000 simulations

Standings (Top 6)

View full standings

#	Team	Scr	Pts	Form
1	Lyon		21	L W W W W
2	Aston Villa	1-0	21	W W W W W
3	FC Midtjylland		19	W L W D W
4	Real Betis		17	W W W L W
5	FC Porto		17	D W W D W
6	SC Braga		17	L D W W D

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

51 Possession 49

5 Shots 3

11 Shots 9

2 Offsides 0

3 Shots Off Goal 3

5 Shots On Goal 3

11 Total Shots 9

51 Ball Possession 49

334 Passes Accurate 311

390 Total Passes 363

86% Passes % 86%

3 Blocked Shots 3

3 Goalkeeper Saves 3

5 Fouls 11

0 Red Cards 0

0 Yellow Cards 1

5 Corner Kicks 7

9 Shots Insidebox 7

2 Shots Outsidebox 2

1.43 expected_goals 0.72

0.40 goals_prevented 0.40

Nottingham Forest — Player Statistics

Player	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.scored	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Archie Whitehall	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	51	M	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Chris Wood	-	-	-	4	2	-	-	False	92	11	F	7	False	-	-	1	1	13	-	21	-	-	1	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Dilane Bakwa	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	29	F	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Elliot Anderson	1	-	1	9	7	1	3	False	92	8	M	7.9	False	-	-	-	-	62	2	68	-	-	0	-	-	1	-	2	3
👤 Igor Jesus	1	-	-	6	3	-	-	False	90	19	F	6.7	False	-	-	-	-	16	1	17	-	-	0	-	1	1	-	2	1
👤 James McAtee	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	24	M	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jimmy Sinclair	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	61	M	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Justin Hanks	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	65	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Keehan Willows	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	67	G	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Lorenzo Lucca	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	20	F	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Matz Sels	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	26	G	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Morato	-	2	-	4	1	-	-	False	92	4	D	7.2	False	-	-	-	-	29	-	34	-	-	0	-	-	-	1	-	1
👤 Morgan Gibbs-White	2	-	1	7	2	1	1	True	92	10	M	7.2	False	-	-	-	-	36	1	44	-	-	0	-	-	2	-	-	-
👤 Neco Williams	3	2	-	12	4	1	1	False	92	3	D	6.7	False	-	-	-	-	29	-	34	-	-	0	-	-	-	1	1	2
👤 Nicolás Domínguez	-	-	-	9	4	1	2	False	92	16	M	6.9	False	-	-	-	1	41	1	45	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Nikola Milenković	-	2	-	8	5	-	-	False	92	31	D	6.9	False	-	-	-	-	20	-	23	-	-	0	-	-	-	1	3	2
👤 Ola Aina	1	-	1	5	3	-	-	False	75	34	D	7	False	-	-	-	-	30	-	35	-	-	0	-	-	-	1	-	2
👤 Omari Hutchinson	10	-	6	15	10	1	2	False	92	21	M	7.2	False	-	-	-	-	28	3	31	-	-	0	-	2	2	-	-	2
👤 Ryan Yates	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	2	22	M	-	True	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Stefan Ortega	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	False	92	27	G	7.2	False	-	3	-	-	19	-	26	-	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Zach Abbott	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	17	44	D	6.7	True	-	-	-	-	7	-	7	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Zyan Blake	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	77	F	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-

Aston Villa — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Amadou Onana	0	-	-	-	4	3	-	-	False	55	24	M	6.9	False	-	0	-	-	-	12	-	15	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	2
👤 Andrés García	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	16	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Douglas Luiz	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	14	21	M	6.7	True	-	0	-	-	-	7	-	7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Emiliano Buendía	0	2	2	-	11	4	1	-	False	79	10	M	6.3	False	-	0	-	-	-	22	-	28	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	3
👤 Emiliano Martínez	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	92	23	G	7.7	False	-	1	3	-	-	21	-	30	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Ezri Konsa	0	1	-	-	6	1	1	-	False	92	4	D	6.7	False	-	0	-	-	-	52	-	56	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	-
👤 Harvey Elliott	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	9	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Ian Maatsen	0	-	-	-	2	2	-	1	False	13	22	D	6.6	True	-	0	-	-	-	5	-	6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Jadon Sancho	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	13	19	F	6.7	True	-	0	-	-	-	4	-	4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 James Wright	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	64	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 John McGinn	0	2	-	2	9	7	-	1	True	79	7	M	7.3	False	-	0	-	-	-	18	2	23	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	2
👤 Lamare Bogarde	0	1	-	-	3	2	-	-	False	37	26	M	6.7	True	-	0	-	-	-	24	-	27	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Leon Bailey	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	31	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Lucas Digne	0	1	2	-	6	2	2	-	False	78	12	D	6.3	False	-	0	-	-	-	19	1	21	1	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
👤 Marco Bizot	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	40	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Matty Cash	0	-	1	-	6	4	1	1	False	92	2	D	6.7	False	-	0	-	-	-	27	-	32	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	2
👤 Morgan Rogers	0	2	1	2	14	8	3	1	False	92	27	M	6.3	False	-	0	-	-	-	18	2	23	-	-	-	1	2	-	1	1
👤 Ollie Watkins	0	3	-	1	7	2	1	-	False	92	11	F	6.3	False	-	0	-	-	-	17	2	20	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Pau Torres	0	-	1	-	4	2	-	-	False	92	14	D	6.7	False	-	0	-	-	-	26	-	29	-	-	-	-	1	1	1	1
👤 Tammy Abraham	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	18	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Tyrone Mings	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	5	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Victor Lindelöf	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	3	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Youri Tielemans	1	2	2	1	8	2	2	-	False	92	8	M	6.2	False	-	0	-	-	-	35	-	38	-	-	-	1	2	-	-	1

League standings

View standings

Teams in this match: Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lyon		8	7	0	1	18	5	13	21	L W W W W
2	Aston Villa	1-0	8	7	0	1	14	6	8	21	W W W W W
3	FC Midtjylland		8	6	1	1	18	8	10	19	W L W D W
4	Real Betis		8	5	2	1	13	7	6	17	W W W L W
5	FC Porto		8	5	2	1	13	7	6	17	D W W D W
6	SC Braga		8	5	2	1	11	5	6	17	L D W W D
7	SC Freiburg		8	5	2	1	10	4	6	17	W D W W L
8	AS Roma		8	5	1	2	13	6	7	16	W W W W D
9	Genk		8	5	1	2	11	7	4	16	W W L W W
10	Bologna		8	4	3	1	14	7	7	15	D W W D W
11	VfB Stuttgart		8	5	0	3	15	9	6	15	W W W L W
12	Ferencvarosi TC		8	4	3	1	12	11	1	15	W D W D L
13	Nottingham Forest	1-0	8	4	2	2	15	7	8	14	D W W L W
14	Plzen		8	3	5	0	8	3	5	14	D D D D W
15	FK Crvena Zvezda		8	4	2	2	7	6	1	14	W W W W D
16	Celta Vigo		8	4	1	3	15	11	4	13	W L L W D
17	PAOK		8	3	3	2	17	14	3	12	W D D W L
18	Lille		8	4	0	4	12	9	3	12	L W L L W
19	Fenerbahce		8	3	3	2	10	7	3	12	D D W L D
20	Panathinaikos		8	3	3	2	11	9	2	12	W W D D D
21	Celtic		8	3	2	3	13	15	-2	11	L W L D W
22	Ludogorets		8	3	1	4	12	15	-3	10	L W D L W
23	Dinamo Zagreb		8	3	1	4	12	16	-4	10	L L L W L
24	Brann		8	2	3	3	9	11	-2	9	D D L D L
25	BSC Young Boys		8	3	0	5	10	16	-6	9	L L W L L
26	Sturm Graz		8	2	1	5	5	11	-6	7	D L L L W
27	FCSB		8	2	1	5	9	16	-7	7	L L W L D
28	GO Ahead Eagles		8	2	1	5	6	14	-8	7	L L L L D
29	Feyenoord		8	2	0	6	11	15	-4	6	L L L W L
30	FC Basel 1893		8	2	0	6	9	13	-4	6	W L L L L
31	Red Bull Salzburg		8	2	0	6	10	15	-5	6	W L L W L
32	Rangers		8	1	1	6	5	14	-9	4	L D L W L
33	Nice		8	1	0	7	7	15	-8	3	L L L W L
34	Utrecht		8	0	1	7	5	15	-10	1	D L L L L
35	Malmo FF		8	0	1	7	4	15	-11	1	L L L L L
36	Maccabi Tel Aviv		8	0	1	7	2	22	-20	1	L L L L L

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Predict the score

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CatBoost Prediction

Model not available yet. Run train_catboost to train a model.

Qualification Prediction Based on 5000 simulations

Nottingham Forest

64.8%

Aston Villa

35.2%

Match Type: Two-leg tie

First leg: Nottingham Forest 1-0 Aston Villa

Current aggregate: 1-0

Method: Monte Carlo (Dixon-Coles + Elo fallback, elo-weighted ET/PEN)

How was this calculated?

We simulate this knockout matchup using scoreline probabilities from Dixon-Coles where available, with an Elo fallback when needed. For two-leg ties we aggregate both legs and count who advances; for single-match knockouts and aggregate-level ties we resolve the shootout step with an elo-weighted draw rather than a 50/50 flip.

Our predictions

xpi

Home Win 44.8%

Draw 19.8%

Away Win 35.4%

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

41.3%

Home Win

28.2%

Draw

30.5%

Away Win

Expected Goals

Nottingham Forest 1.45

Aston Villa 1.22

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

Nottingham Forest

Aston Villa

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Qualification %

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

xpi

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)