Fenerbahce vs Nottingham Forest

Europa League

Nottingham Forest

19 Feb 2026

18:45

Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu

First Leg Second Leg

Aggregate 2 - 4

Score Summary

Fenerbahce

0 3

FT HT 0–2

Nottingham Forest

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

52% Win

Fenerbahce 1506 1496 ▼ -10

48% Win

Nottingham Forest 1491 1502 ▲ 10

xPi Expected win probability

41% Win

Fenerbahce 0.16 0.09 ▼ -0.07

37% Win

Nottingham Forest 0.22 0.22 ▲ 0.00

Top Performers

Top Rated

Murillo

Nottingham Forest

8.0

8.0 rating · 90 min

Most Clinical

Murillo

Nottingham Forest

8.0

1 goals

Best Creator

Omari Hutchinson

Nottingham Forest

7.3

5 key passes · 0 assists

Defensive Leader

Ibrahim Sangaré

Nottingham Forest

6.6

3 tackles · 3 interceptions

Match Momentum

Fenerbahce 22% Nottingham Forest 78%

Key Stats Snapshot

57 Possession 43

6 Shots 23

2 On Target 7

Form Context

Fenerbahce

D D W L D

Nottingham Forest

D W W L W

Smart Insight

Nottingham Forest carried stronger momentum across the match profile.
Nottingham Forest produced more shot pressure than expected.
Elo movement favors Nottingham Forest after this result.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 41.1%

Draw 28.2%

Away Win 30.7%

Expected Goals 1.45 - 1.23

Qualification %

Fenerbahce 0.0%

Nottingham Forest 100.0%

Based on 5000 simulations

Standings (Top 6)

View full standings

#	Team	Pts	Form
1	Lyon	21	L W W W W
2	Aston Villa	21	W W W W W
3	FC Midtjylland	19	W L W D W
4	Real Betis	17	W W W L W
5	FC Porto	17	D W W D W
6	SC Braga	17	L D W W D

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

57 Possession 43

2 Shots 7

6 Shots 23

0 Offsides 2

3 Shots Off Goal 10

2 Shots On Goal 7

6 Total Shots 23

57 Ball Possession 43

447 Passes Accurate 315

514 Total Passes 385

87% Passes % 82%

1 Blocked Shots 6

4 Goalkeeper Saves 2

10 Fouls 14

0 Red Cards 0

5 Yellow Cards 0

3 Corner Kicks 10

4 Shots Insidebox 14

2 Shots Outsidebox 9

0.48 expected_goals 2.74

0 goals_prevented 0

Fenerbahce — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Alaettin Ekici	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	54	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Anderson Talisca	0	1	-	-	7	2	1	-	False	61	94	M	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	15	-	21	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	1
👤 Archie Brown	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	3	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Dorgeles Nene	0	1	-	1	4	2	1	-	False	45	45	F	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	10	-	11	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Ederson	0	-	-	-	2	2	-	-	False	90	31	G	6.7	False	0	3	4	-	-	22	-	32	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Engin Can Biterge	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	39	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Fred	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	14	7	M	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	11	-	14	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jayden Oosterwolde	1	-	-	-	3	1	1	-	False	90	24	D	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	78	-	86	-	-	-	-	-	1	2	1
👤 Kerem Aktürkoğlu	0	1	1	-	4	1	-	-	False	45	9	M	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	9	1	14	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Levent Mercan	0	3	-	1	10	5	1	3	False	45	22	D	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	24	-	29	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Marco Asensio	0	1	2	-	5	2	-	-	False	90	21	M	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	22	1	27	-	-	-	1	2	-	-	2
👤 Mattéo Guendouzi	1	-	1	-	11	6	2	4	False	90	6	M	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	68	-	70	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	2
👤 Mert Müldür	0	-	3	-	7	4	-	-	False	45	18	D	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	9	-	13	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	3
👤 Milan Škriniar	1	-	-	-	3	2	1	-	True	26	37	D	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	15	-	15	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 N'Golo Kanté	0	1	-	-	5	2	1	-	False	76	17	M	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	49	-	53	-	-	-	-	-	1	2	2
👤 Nélson Semedo	0	3	-	1	5	2	-	1	False	90	27	D	5.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	37	1	40	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Oğuz Aydın	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	70	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Sidiki Cherif	0	1	-	1	9	4	-	3	False	90	26	F	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	11	-	12	-	-	-	1	1	1	-	-
👤 Tarik Çetin	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	13	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Yiğit Efe Demir	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	14	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Çağlar Söyüncü	1	-	1	-	6	2	2	-	False	64	4	D	6.5	True	0	0	-	-	-	58	1	62	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1
👤 İsmail Yüksek	0	-	-	-	6	4	-	2	False	29	5	M	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	9	-	15	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1

Nottingham Forest — Player Statistics

Player	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Angus Gunn	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	18	G	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Callum Hudson-Odoi	1	1	1	7	4	-	2	False	83	7	M	7.3	False	0	-	-	-	24	2	25	-	-	-	1	4	-	-	1
👤 Dan Ndoye	1	-	1	7	5	1	1	False	29	14	F	6.9	True	0	-	-	-	7	-	12	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	3
👤 Dilane Bakwa	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	29	F	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Elliot Anderson	1	1	-	6	2	1	-	False	67	8	M	6.9	False	1	-	-	-	36	3	42	-	-	-	-	1	-	2	1
👤 Ibrahim Sangaré	4	-	2	11	5	-	-	False	90	6	M	6.6	False	0	-	-	-	33	-	40	-	-	-	-	1	-	3	3
👤 Igor Jesus	-	-	-	6	3	1	1	False	61	19	F	7.9	False	1	-	1	-	8	1	9	-	-	-	1	2	-	-	2
👤 Jair	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	23	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 James McAtee	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	False	11	24	M	6.9	True	0	-	-	-	3	1	3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Keehan Willows	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	67	G	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Lorenzo Lucca	-	-	-	6	2	2	1	False	29	20	F	6.2	True	0	-	-	-	-	-	4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Morato	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	4	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Morgan Gibbs-White	1	1	-	7	3	2	-	True	67	10	M	7.9	False	1	-	1	-	17	2	22	-	-	-	3	4	-	-	1
👤 Murillo	-	1	-	8	3	2	-	False	90	5	D	8	False	0	-	1	-	40	1	49	-	-	-	1	1	1	2	2
👤 Neco Williams	1	-	1	7	6	-	2	False	90	3	D	7.5	False	0	-	-	-	36	1	37	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	3
👤 Nicolás Domínguez	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	False	23	16	M	6.3	True	0	-	-	-	13	-	15	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Nikola Milenković	-	-	-	7	4	2	-	False	90	31	D	6.9	False	0	-	-	1	30	1	35	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	-
👤 Ola Aina	-	-	-	4	3	1	1	False	90	34	D	7.3	False	0	-	-	-	30	3	39	-	-	-	-	-	-	4	1
👤 Omari Hutchinson	3	-	3	6	3	1	-	False	61	21	M	7.3	False	0	-	-	1	17	5	20	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Ryan Yates	-	-	-	3	2	1	1	False	23	22	M	6.7	True	0	-	-	-	4	-	6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Stefan Ortega	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	27	G	6.9	False	0	2	-	-	17	-	27	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Zach Abbott	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	44	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

League standings

View standings

Teams in this match: Fenerbahce and Nottingham Forest

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lyon		8	7	0	1	18	5	13	21	L W W W W
2	Aston Villa		8	7	0	1	14	6	8	21	W W W W W
3	FC Midtjylland		8	6	1	1	18	8	10	19	W L W D W
4	Real Betis		8	5	2	1	13	7	6	17	W W W L W
5	FC Porto		8	5	2	1	13	7	6	17	D W W D W
6	SC Braga		8	5	2	1	11	5	6	17	L D W W D
7	SC Freiburg		8	5	2	1	10	4	6	17	W D W W L
8	AS Roma		8	5	1	2	13	6	7	16	W W W W D
9	Genk		8	5	1	2	11	7	4	16	W W L W W
10	Bologna		8	4	3	1	14	7	7	15	D W W D W
11	VfB Stuttgart		8	5	0	3	15	9	6	15	W W W L W
12	Ferencvarosi TC		8	4	3	1	12	11	1	15	W D W D L
13	Nottingham Forest	0-3	8	4	2	2	15	7	8	14	D W W L W
14	Plzen		8	3	5	0	8	3	5	14	D D D D W
15	FK Crvena Zvezda		8	4	2	2	7	6	1	14	W W W W D
16	Celta Vigo		8	4	1	3	15	11	4	13	W L L W D
17	PAOK		8	3	3	2	17	14	3	12	W D D W L
18	Lille		8	4	0	4	12	9	3	12	L W L L W
19	Fenerbahce	0-3	8	3	3	2	10	7	3	12	D D W L D
20	Panathinaikos		8	3	3	2	11	9	2	12	W W D D D
21	Celtic		8	3	2	3	13	15	-2	11	L W L D W
22	Ludogorets		8	3	1	4	12	15	-3	10	L W D L W
23	Dinamo Zagreb		8	3	1	4	12	16	-4	10	L L L W L
24	Brann		8	2	3	3	9	11	-2	9	D D L D L
25	BSC Young Boys		8	3	0	5	10	16	-6	9	L L W L L
26	Sturm Graz		8	2	1	5	5	11	-6	7	D L L L W
27	FCSB		8	2	1	5	9	16	-7	7	L L W L D
28	GO Ahead Eagles		8	2	1	5	6	14	-8	7	L L L L D
29	Feyenoord		8	2	0	6	11	15	-4	6	L L L W L
30	FC Basel 1893		8	2	0	6	9	13	-4	6	W L L L L
31	Red Bull Salzburg		8	2	0	6	10	15	-5	6	W L L W L
32	Rangers		8	1	1	6	5	14	-9	4	L D L W L
33	Nice		8	1	0	7	7	15	-8	3	L L L W L
34	Utrecht		8	0	1	7	5	15	-10	1	D L L L L
35	Malmo FF		8	0	1	7	4	15	-11	1	L L L L L
36	Maccabi Tel Aviv		8	0	1	7	2	22	-20	1	L L L L L

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Predict the score

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CatBoost Prediction

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Qualification Prediction Based on 5000 simulations

Fenerbahce

0.0%

Nottingham Forest

100.0%

Match Type: Two-leg tie

First leg: Fenerbahce 0-3 Nottingham Forest

Current aggregate: 2-4

Method: Monte Carlo (Dixon-Coles + Elo fallback, elo-weighted ET/PEN)

How was this calculated?

We simulate this knockout matchup using scoreline probabilities from Dixon-Coles where available, with an Elo fallback when needed. For two-leg ties we aggregate both legs and count who advances; for single-match knockouts and aggregate-level ties we resolve the shootout step with an elo-weighted draw rather than a 50/50 flip.

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

41.1%

Home Win

28.2%

Draw

30.7%

Away Win

Expected Goals

Fenerbahce 1.45

Nottingham Forest 1.23

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

Fenerbahce

Nottingham Forest

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Qualification %

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)