Nottingham Forest vs Fenerbahce

Europa League

Fenerbahce

26 Feb 2026

21:00

City Ground

First Leg Second Leg

Aggregate 4 - 2

Score Summary

Nottingham Forest

1 2

FT HT 0–1

Fenerbahce

C. Hudson-Odoi 68'

22' K. Akturkoglu
48' K. Akturkoglu

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

50% Win

Nottingham Forest 1494 1484 ▼ -10

50% Win

Fenerbahce 1496 1505 ▲ 10

xPi Expected win probability

43% Win

Nottingham Forest 0.32 0.22 ▼ -0.10

36% Win

Fenerbahce 0.04 0.09 ▲ 0.05

Top Performers

Top Rated

Kerem Aktürkoğlu

Fenerbahce

8.0

8.0 rating · 90 min

Most Clinical

Kerem Aktürkoğlu

Fenerbahce

8.0

2 goals

Best Creator

Omari Hutchinson

Nottingham Forest

6.9

3 key passes · 0 assists

Defensive Leader

Neco Williams

Nottingham Forest

6.6

7 tackles · 1 interceptions

Match Momentum

Nottingham Forest 50% Fenerbahce 50%

Key Stats Snapshot

54 Possession 46

13 Shots 11

4 On Target 4

Form Context

Nottingham Forest

D W W L W

Fenerbahce

D D W L D

Smart Insight

Momentum stayed balanced with no clear sustained dominance.
Elo movement favors Fenerbahce after this result.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 40.2%

Draw 28.2%

Away Win 31.5%

Expected Goals 1.44 - 1.25

Qualification %

Nottingham Forest 100.0%

Fenerbahce 0.0%

Based on 5000 simulations

Standings (Top 6)

View full standings

#	Team	Pts	Form
1	Lyon	21	L W W W W
2	Aston Villa	21	W W W W W
3	FC Midtjylland	19	W L W D W
4	Real Betis	17	W W W L W
5	FC Porto	17	D W W D W
6	SC Braga	17	L D W W D

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

54 Possession 46

4 Shots 4

13 Shots 11

0 Offsides 3

7 Shots Off Goal 3

4 Shots On Goal 4

13 Total Shots 11

54 Ball Possession 46

465 Passes Accurate 389

537 Total Passes 469

87% Passes % 83%

2 Blocked Shots 4

3 Goalkeeper Saves 3

12 Fouls 8

0 Red Cards 0

1 Yellow Cards 0

5 Corner Kicks 3

8 Shots Insidebox 7

5 Shots Outsidebox 4

0.99 expected_goals 1.76

0 goals_prevented 0

Nottingham Forest — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Angus Gunn	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	18	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Callum Hudson-Odoi	0	1	1	1	4	3	1	1	False	45	7	F	8	True	0	0	-	1	-	21	2	24	-	-	-	1	2	-	2	1
👤 Dan Ndoye	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	14	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Dilane Bakwa	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	29	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Elliot Anderson	0	7	-	4	14	8	-	1	False	90	8	M	6.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	67	1	74	-	-	-	-	2	-	3	3
👤 Ibrahim Sangaré	0	-	1	-	3	2	-	-	False	45	6	M	6.6	True	0	0	-	-	-	31	-	37	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Igor Jesus	0	-	1	-	4	1	-	-	False	45	19	F	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	12	-	17	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Jair	0	-	-	-	10	6	1	1	False	90	23	D	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	51	-	55	1	-	-	1	1	1	2	3
👤 James McAtee	0	6	1	3	9	3	1	-	False	45	24	M	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	15	-	19	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	-
👤 Keehan Willows	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	67	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Lorenzo Lucca	1	1	-	-	5	-	3	-	False	45	20	F	5.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	3	-	6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Morato	0	-	-	-	5	5	-	-	False	90	4	D	7.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	54	-	58	-	-	-	-	1	1	2	3
👤 Morgan Gibbs-White	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	11	10	M	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	2	-	2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Murillo	0	2	-	1	6	3	1	1	False	45	5	D	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	24	-	29	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 Neco Williams	0	-	2	-	12	8	-	-	False	90	3	D	6.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	51	-	53	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	7
👤 Nicolás Domínguez	0	1	2	1	13	6	3	1	False	84	16	M	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	44	1	48	-	-	-	-	1	1	1	2
👤 Nikola Milenković	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	31	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Ola Aina	0	3	-	2	8	6	1	1	False	45	34	D	7	True	1	0	-	-	-	28	2	30	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	3
👤 Omari Hutchinson	0	5	-	3	10	5	1	2	False	90	21	M	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	29	3	36	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Ryan Yates	0	-	-	-	3	1	-	-	True	45	22	M	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	19	-	23	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
👤 Stefan Ortega	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	27	G	6.3	False	0	2	3	-	-	14	-	26	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Zach Abbott	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	44	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Fenerbahce — Player Statistics

Player	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.scored	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Alaettin Ekici	3	1	1	6	1	-	-	False	14	54	F	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	2	-	3	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Archie Brown	5	-	3	11	8	1	4	False	76	3	M	7	False	0	0	-	-	-	18	-	23	-	-	0	-	-	-	1	-	-
👤 Dorgeles Nene	1	3	-	10	4	1	1	False	45	45	M	6.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	8	-	9	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	1	3
👤 Engin Can Biterge	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	39	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Hulusi Efe Ceylan	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	92	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Kamil Efe Üregen	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	67	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Kerem Aktürkoğlu	1	1	-	8	2	1	1	False	90	9	F	8	False	0	0	-	2	-	5	2	13	-	-	1	1	2	3	-	1	1
👤 Levent Mercan	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	14	22	D	6.5	True	0	0	-	-	-	6	-	13	-	-	0	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Marco Asensio	1	1	-	2	-	-	-	False	27	21	M	6.2	True	0	0	-	-	-	16	-	17	-	-	0	-	1	1	-	1	-
👤 Mattéo Guendouzi	1	-	1	3	3	-	1	False	90	6	D	7.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	72	-	76	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	1	1
👤 Mert Müldür	-	4	-	10	4	1	-	False	90	18	D	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	56	-	63	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	3
👤 N'Golo Kanté	5	-	2	15	9	2	-	False	90	17	M	7.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	61	2	68	-	-	0	-	-	-	1	3	5
👤 Nélson Semedo	-	-	-	1	-	1	-	False	45	27	D	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	9	-	14	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Oğuz Aydın	-	1	-	4	2	-	-	False	63	70	M	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	21	2	27	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Sidiki Cherif	2	-	1	13	4	1	-	False	76	26	F	6.7	False	1	0	-	-	3	8	2	10	-	-	0	-	1	2	-	-	1
👤 Tarik Çetin	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	13	G	7.3	False	0	1	3	-	-	30	-	39	-	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Yiğit Efe Demir	1	1	-	8	4	-	1	False	90	14	D	6.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	35	-	40	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	2	2
👤 İsmail Yüksek	-	3	-	15	8	-	3	True	90	5	M	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	42	-	54	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	3	3

League standings

View standings

Teams in this match: Nottingham Forest and Fenerbahce

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lyon		8	7	0	1	18	5	13	21	L W W W W
2	Aston Villa		8	7	0	1	14	6	8	21	W W W W W
3	FC Midtjylland		8	6	1	1	18	8	10	19	W L W D W
4	Real Betis		8	5	2	1	13	7	6	17	W W W L W
5	FC Porto		8	5	2	1	13	7	6	17	D W W D W
6	SC Braga		8	5	2	1	11	5	6	17	L D W W D
7	SC Freiburg		8	5	2	1	10	4	6	17	W D W W L
8	AS Roma		8	5	1	2	13	6	7	16	W W W W D
9	Genk		8	5	1	2	11	7	4	16	W W L W W
10	Bologna		8	4	3	1	14	7	7	15	D W W D W
11	VfB Stuttgart		8	5	0	3	15	9	6	15	W W W L W
12	Ferencvarosi TC		8	4	3	1	12	11	1	15	W D W D L
13	Nottingham Forest	1-2	8	4	2	2	15	7	8	14	D W W L W
14	Plzen		8	3	5	0	8	3	5	14	D D D D W
15	FK Crvena Zvezda		8	4	2	2	7	6	1	14	W W W W D
16	Celta Vigo		8	4	1	3	15	11	4	13	W L L W D
17	PAOK		8	3	3	2	17	14	3	12	W D D W L
18	Lille		8	4	0	4	12	9	3	12	L W L L W
19	Fenerbahce	1-2	8	3	3	2	10	7	3	12	D D W L D
20	Panathinaikos		8	3	3	2	11	9	2	12	W W D D D
21	Celtic		8	3	2	3	13	15	-2	11	L W L D W
22	Ludogorets		8	3	1	4	12	15	-3	10	L W D L W
23	Dinamo Zagreb		8	3	1	4	12	16	-4	10	L L L W L
24	Brann		8	2	3	3	9	11	-2	9	D D L D L
25	BSC Young Boys		8	3	0	5	10	16	-6	9	L L W L L
26	Sturm Graz		8	2	1	5	5	11	-6	7	D L L L W
27	FCSB		8	2	1	5	9	16	-7	7	L L W L D
28	GO Ahead Eagles		8	2	1	5	6	14	-8	7	L L L L D
29	Feyenoord		8	2	0	6	11	15	-4	6	L L L W L
30	FC Basel 1893		8	2	0	6	9	13	-4	6	W L L L L
31	Red Bull Salzburg		8	2	0	6	10	15	-5	6	W L L W L
32	Rangers		8	1	1	6	5	14	-9	4	L D L W L
33	Nice		8	1	0	7	7	15	-8	3	L L L W L
34	Utrecht		8	0	1	7	5	15	-10	1	D L L L L
35	Malmo FF		8	0	1	7	4	15	-11	1	L L L L L
36	Maccabi Tel Aviv		8	0	1	7	2	22	-20	1	L L L L L

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Predict the score

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CatBoost Prediction

Model not available yet. Run train_catboost to train a model.

Qualification Prediction Based on 5000 simulations

Nottingham Forest

100.0%

Fenerbahce

0.0%

Match Type: Two-leg tie

First leg: Fenerbahce 0-3 Nottingham Forest

Current aggregate: 2-4

Method: Monte Carlo (Dixon-Coles + Elo fallback, elo-weighted ET/PEN)

How was this calculated?

We simulate this knockout matchup using scoreline probabilities from Dixon-Coles where available, with an Elo fallback when needed. For two-leg ties we aggregate both legs and count who advances; for single-match knockouts and aggregate-level ties we resolve the shootout step with an elo-weighted draw rather than a 50/50 flip.

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

40.2%

Home Win

28.2%

Draw

31.5%

Away Win

Expected Goals

Nottingham Forest 1.44

Fenerbahce 1.25

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

Nottingham Forest

Fenerbahce

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Qualification %

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)