PAOK vs Celta Vigo - Football Platform

Europa League

Celta Vigo

Coach : Claudio Giráldez

19 Feb 2026

18:45

Toumba Stadium

First Leg Second Leg

Aggregate 1 - 3

Score Summary

PAOK

1 2

FT HT 0–2

Celta Vigo

A. Jeremejeff 77'

34' I. Aspas
43' W. Swedberg

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

47% Win

PAOK 1516 1506 ▼ -10

53% Win

Celta Vigo 1533 1543 ▲ 10

xPi Expected win probability

46% Win

PAOK 0.22 0.14 ▼ -0.08

35% Win

Celta Vigo 0.12 0.23 ▲ 0.11

Top Performers

Top Rated

Iago Aspas

Celta Vigo

8.3

8.3 rating · 66 min

Most Clinical

Alexander Jeremejeff

PAOK

7.7

1 goals

Best Creator

Iago Aspas

Celta Vigo

8.3

2 key passes · 1 assists

Defensive Leader

Carl Starfelt

Celta Vigo

6.9

1 tackles · 3 interceptions

Match Momentum

PAOK 20% Celta Vigo 80%

Key Stats Snapshot

58 Possession 42

5 Shots 9

2 On Target 8

Form Context

PAOK

W D D W L

Celta Vigo

W L L W D

Smart Insight

Celta Vigo carried stronger momentum across the match profile.
Celta Vigo produced more shot pressure than expected.
Elo movement favors Celta Vigo after this result.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 42.6%

Draw 28.0%

Away Win 29.3%

Expected Goals 1.49 - 1.20

Qualification %

PAOK 0.0%

Celta Vigo 100.0%

Based on 5000 simulations

Standings (Top 6)

View full standings

#	Team	Pts	Form
1	Lyon	21	L W W W W
2	Aston Villa	21	W W W W W
3	FC Midtjylland	19	W L W D W
4	Real Betis	17	W W W L W
5	FC Porto	17	D W W D W
6	SC Braga	17	L D W W D

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

58 Possession 42

2 Shots 8

5 Shots 9

4 Offsides 4

1 Shots Off Goal 1

2 Shots On Goal 8

5 Total Shots 9

58 Ball Possession 42

506 Passes Accurate 373

568 Total Passes 434

89% Passes % 86%

2 Blocked Shots 0

6 Goalkeeper Saves 1

10 Fouls 11

0 Red Cards 0

1 Yellow Cards 2

3 Corner Kicks 3

2 Shots Insidebox 7

3 Shots Outsidebox 2

0.60 expected_goals 1.20

0 goals_prevented 0

PAOK — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Abdul Rahman Baba	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	23	21	D	6.6	True	0	0	-	-	-	12	-	16	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Alessandro Bianco	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	22	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Alessandro Vogliacco	0	-	-	-	2	1	-	-	False	67	4	D	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	39	-	44	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Alexander Jeremejeff	0	-	-	-	8	4	2	3	False	90	19	F	7.7	False	0	0	-	1	2	13	-	15	-	-	-	2	2	-	-	-
👤 Andrija Živković	1	3	3	1	12	2	3	1	True	90	14	M	6.6	False	1	0	-	-	1	36	1	41	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Anestis Mythou	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	56	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Antonis Tsiftsis	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	99	G	8	False	0	2	6	-	-	29	-	41	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Christos Zafeiris	0	1	1	-	3	-	1	-	False	90	20	M	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	45	-	46	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Dejan Lovren	0	-	-	-	6	4	1	-	False	90	6	D	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	73	-	82	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Dimitrios Berdos	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	39	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Dimitrios Chatsidis	0	2	-	-	8	3	2	1	False	23	52	F	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	5	-	6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Dimitrios Monastirlis	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	41	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Greg Taylor	0	-	1	-	3	1	-	1	False	67	32	D	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	56	1	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Ioannis Michailidis	0	-	1	-	3	2	-	-	False	23	5	D	6.6	True	0	0	-	-	-	25	-	32	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	2
👤 Jiří Pavlenka	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	1	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jonjoe Kenny	0	1	-	-	5	1	-	-	False	90	3	D	6	False	0	0	-	-	1	41	-	44	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1
👤 Jorge Sánchez	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	35	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Konstantinos Thymianis	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	25	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Mady Camara	0	1	-	1	3	2	1	-	False	67	2	M	6.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	25	-	26	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Magomed Ozdoev	0	-	-	-	3	3	-	1	False	90	27	M	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	47	1	49	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	2
👤 Taison	0	1	1	1	10	5	-	4	False	90	11	M	7.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	60	1	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Tomasz Kędziora	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	16	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Celta Vigo — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Borja Iglesias	0	1	1	-	3	-	-	-	False	61	7	F	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	2	5	-	7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Carl Starfelt	0	-	1	-	7	3	2	-	False	90	2	D	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	70	-	72	-	-	-	-	-	2	3	1
👤 Carlos Domínguez	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	24	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Fer López	0	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	False	24	30	M	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	4	-	6	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Ferran Jutglà	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	False	29	9	F	6.5	True	0	0	-	-	1	5	-	10	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Hugo Álvarez	1	2	-	1	5	3	1	-	False	24	23	M	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	9	-	10	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	1
👤 Iago Aspas	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	True	66	10	F	8.3	False	1	0	-	1	-	20	2	25	-	-	-	2	2	-	1	-
👤 Ilaix Moriba	0	1	-	-	5	3	-	1	False	90	6	M	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	30	2	33	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	2
👤 Ionuț Radu	0	-	-	-	2	2	-	2	False	90	13	G	6.6	False	0	1	1	-	-	6	-	11	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Iván Villar	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	1	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Javi Rodríguez	0	2	-	1	7	3	3	-	False	90	32	D	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	60	-	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Javier Rueda	1	2	-	-	7	5	-	2	False	29	17	D	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	8	1	10	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	3
👤 Jones El-Abdellaoui	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	39	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Manu Fernández	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	12	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Marcos Alonso	0	1	-	1	5	4	1	1	False	90	20	D	7	False	0	0	-	-	-	63	-	70	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Matías Vecino	0	-	-	-	3	-	3	-	False	10	15	M	6.5	True	0	0	-	-	-	3	-	3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Miguel Román	0	2	-	1	2	1	-	-	False	86	16	M	6.9	False	1	0	-	-	-	23	1	27	-	-	-	1	1	-	2	-
👤 Mihailo Ristic	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	21	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Pablo Durán	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	18	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Sergio Carreira	0	3	-	2	8	6	-	2	False	90	5	M	6.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	31	-	42	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Williot Swedberg	0	1	-	-	4	3	-	-	False	66	19	F	7.6	False	0	0	-	1	1	7	-	10	-	-	-	3	3	-	-	2
👤 Yoel Lago	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	29	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Óscar Mingueza	0	1	1	1	5	3	1	-	False	61	3	M	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	29	1	33	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	1

League standings

View standings

Teams in this match: PAOK and Celta Vigo

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lyon		8	7	0	1	18	5	13	21	L W W W W
2	Aston Villa		8	7	0	1	14	6	8	21	W W W W W
3	FC Midtjylland		8	6	1	1	18	8	10	19	W L W D W
4	Real Betis		8	5	2	1	13	7	6	17	W W W L W
5	FC Porto		8	5	2	1	13	7	6	17	D W W D W
6	SC Braga		8	5	2	1	11	5	6	17	L D W W D
7	SC Freiburg		8	5	2	1	10	4	6	17	W D W W L
8	AS Roma		8	5	1	2	13	6	7	16	W W W W D
9	Genk		8	5	1	2	11	7	4	16	W W L W W
10	Bologna		8	4	3	1	14	7	7	15	D W W D W
11	VfB Stuttgart		8	5	0	3	15	9	6	15	W W W L W
12	Ferencvarosi TC		8	4	3	1	12	11	1	15	W D W D L
13	Nottingham Forest		8	4	2	2	15	7	8	14	D W W L W
14	Plzen		8	3	5	0	8	3	5	14	D D D D W
15	FK Crvena Zvezda		8	4	2	2	7	6	1	14	W W W W D
16	Celta Vigo	1-2	8	4	1	3	15	11	4	13	W L L W D
17	PAOK	1-2	8	3	3	2	17	14	3	12	W D D W L
18	Lille		8	4	0	4	12	9	3	12	L W L L W
19	Fenerbahce		8	3	3	2	10	7	3	12	D D W L D
20	Panathinaikos		8	3	3	2	11	9	2	12	W W D D D
21	Celtic		8	3	2	3	13	15	-2	11	L W L D W
22	Ludogorets		8	3	1	4	12	15	-3	10	L W D L W
23	Dinamo Zagreb		8	3	1	4	12	16	-4	10	L L L W L
24	Brann		8	2	3	3	9	11	-2	9	D D L D L
25	BSC Young Boys		8	3	0	5	10	16	-6	9	L L W L L
26	Sturm Graz		8	2	1	5	5	11	-6	7	D L L L W
27	FCSB		8	2	1	5	9	16	-7	7	L L W L D
28	GO Ahead Eagles		8	2	1	5	6	14	-8	7	L L L L D
29	Feyenoord		8	2	0	6	11	15	-4	6	L L L W L
30	FC Basel 1893		8	2	0	6	9	13	-4	6	W L L L L
31	Red Bull Salzburg		8	2	0	6	10	15	-5	6	W L L W L
32	Rangers		8	1	1	6	5	14	-9	4	L D L W L
33	Nice		8	1	0	7	7	15	-8	3	L L L W L
34	Utrecht		8	0	1	7	5	15	-10	1	D L L L L
35	Malmo FF		8	0	1	7	4	15	-11	1	L L L L L
36	Maccabi Tel Aviv		8	0	1	7	2	22	-20	1	L L L L L

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Predict the score

Loading API predictions…

CatBoost Prediction

Model not available yet. Run train_catboost to train a model.

Qualification Prediction Based on 5000 simulations

PAOK

0.0%

Celta Vigo

100.0%

Match Type: Two-leg tie

First leg: PAOK 1-2 Celta Vigo

Current aggregate: 3-1

Method: Monte Carlo (Dixon-Coles + Elo fallback, elo-weighted ET/PEN)

How was this calculated?

We simulate this knockout matchup using scoreline probabilities from Dixon-Coles where available, with an Elo fallback when needed. For two-leg ties we aggregate both legs and count who advances; for single-match knockouts and aggregate-level ties we resolve the shootout step with an elo-weighted draw rather than a 50/50 flip.

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

42.6%

Home Win

28.0%

Draw

29.3%

Away Win

Expected Goals

PAOK 1.49

Celta Vigo 1.20

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

PAOK

Celta Vigo

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Qualification %

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)