Celta Vigo vs PAOK - Football Platform

Europa League

PAOK

63' W. Swedberg

26 Feb 2026

21:00

Estadio Abanca Balaídos

First Leg Second Leg

Aggregate 3 - 1

Score Summary

Celta Vigo

1 0

FT HT 0–0

PAOK

W. Swedberg 63'

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

56% Win

Celta Vigo 1551 1560 ▲ 9

44% Win

PAOK 1506 1498 ▼ -9

xPi Expected win probability

46% Win

Celta Vigo 0.26 0.23 ▼ -0.03

35% Win

PAOK 0.17 0.14 ▼ -0.04

Top Performers

Top Rated

Williot Swedberg

Celta Vigo

7.9

7.9 rating · 77 min

Most Clinical

Williot Swedberg

Celta Vigo

7.9

1 goals

Best Creator

Javier Rueda

Celta Vigo

7.3

3 key passes · 0 assists

Defensive Leader

Jorge Sánchez

PAOK

7.3

5 tackles · 1 interceptions

Match Momentum

Celta Vigo 100% PAOK 0%

Key Stats Snapshot

55 Possession 45

14 Shots 4

3 On Target 0

Form Context

Celta Vigo

W L L W D

PAOK

W D D W L

Smart Insight

Celta Vigo controlled momentum for most phases of play.
Celta Vigo generated the clearer shot volume edge.
Elo movement favors Celta Vigo after this result.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 42.6%

Draw 28.0%

Away Win 29.4%

Expected Goals 1.48 - 1.20

Qualification %

Celta Vigo 100.0%

PAOK 0.0%

Based on 5000 simulations

Standings (Top 6)

View full standings

#	Team	Pts	Form
1	Lyon	21	L W W W W
2	Aston Villa	21	W W W W W
3	FC Midtjylland	19	W L W D W
4	Real Betis	17	W W W L W
5	FC Porto	17	D W W D W
6	SC Braga	17	L D W W D

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

55 Possession 45

3 Shots 0

14 Shots 4

4 Offsides 0

7 Shots Off Goal 2

3 Shots On Goal 0

14 Total Shots 4

55 Ball Possession 45

532 Passes Accurate 395

583 Total Passes 470

91% Passes % 84%

4 Blocked Shots 2

0 Goalkeeper Saves 2

9 Fouls 9

0 Red Cards 0

1 Yellow Cards 0

6 Corner Kicks 2

10 Shots Insidebox 3

4 Shots Outsidebox 1

1.35 expected_goals 0.35

0 goals_prevented 0

Celta Vigo — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Alvaro Núñez	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	14	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Borja Iglesias	0	1	1	-	6	2	1	1	False	77	7	F	6.9	False	1	-	-	1	12	1	14	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Carl Starfelt	0	-	-	-	4	1	1	-	False	90	2	D	7.3	False	0	-	-	-	106	1	108	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-
👤 Carlos Domínguez	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	1	24	D	-	True	0	-	-	-	4	-	5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Fer López	0	1	-	-	4	1	-	-	False	13	30	M	6.9	True	0	-	-	-	8	-	8	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	1
👤 Ferran Jutglà	0	2	-	1	4	2	-	-	False	23	9	F	6.9	True	0	-	-	1	3	1	4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Hugo Álvarez	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	23	M	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Iago Aspas	0	1	-	-	2	-	-	-	True	67	10	F	6.3	False	0	-	-	-	20	2	25	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Ilaix Moriba	1	2	-	2	5	4	-	1	False	45	6	M	7.2	False	0	-	-	-	26	-	27	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	1
👤 Ionuț Radu	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	False	90	13	G	6.9	False	0	-	-	-	19	-	21	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Iván Villar	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	1	G	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Javi Rodríguez	0	-	-	-	7	6	-	-	False	90	32	D	7.7	False	0	-	-	-	83	-	90	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	4
👤 Javier Rueda	0	4	-	2	9	6	1	1	False	90	17	M	7.3	False	0	-	-	1	35	3	41	-	-	-	-	1	-	2	2
👤 Jones El-Abdellaoui	0	-	-	-	1	-	1	-	False	13	39	F	6.3	True	0	-	-	-	1	-	2	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Joseph Aidoo	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	4	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Manu Fernández	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	12	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Marcos Alonso	0	-	-	-	4	2	-	1	False	89	20	D	7.3	False	0	-	-	-	88	-	97	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	1
👤 Matías Vecino	0	1	1	-	11	5	4	1	False	90	15	M	6.7	False	0	-	-	-	45	-	51	-	-	-	-	2	-	-	1
👤 Miguel Román	0	-	1	-	2	1	-	-	False	45	16	M	6.9	True	0	-	-	-	26	1	28	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Mihailo Ristic	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	21	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Sergio Carreira	0	4	1	1	12	7	-	4	False	90	5	M	7.2	False	0	-	-	1	45	-	49	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	2
👤 Williot Swedberg	0	1	2	1	8	3	1	-	False	77	19	F	7.9	False	0	-	1	-	11	2	13	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	2
👤 Óscar Mingueza	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	3	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

PAOK — Player Statistics

Player	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Abdul Rahman Baba	1	1	-	5	1	1	-	False	90	21	D	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	38	-	46	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Alessandro Bianco	-	-	-	6	2	1	2	False	64	22	M	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	7	-	10	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Alessandro Vogliacco	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	4	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Alexander Jeremejeff	-	-	-	3	2	-	-	False	11	19	F	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	3	-	8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Antonis Tsiftsis	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	99	G	6.7	False	0	1	2	-	-	25	-	38	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Bedri Dunga	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	37	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Christos Zafeiris	6	1	2	12	6	1	1	False	90	20	M	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	46	-	52	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	3
👤 Dimitrios Berdos	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	39	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Dimitrios Chatsidis	3	2	-	8	2	-	1	False	74	52	M	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	6	2	9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Dimitrios Monastirlis	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	41	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Giorgos Giakoumakis	-	1	-	12	6	2	3	False	79	7	F	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	11	-	14	-	-	-	-	1	1	-	3
👤 Greg Taylor	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	16	32	D	6.6	True	0	0	-	-	-	8	-	9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Ioannis Michailidis	-	-	-	5	5	-	1	False	90	5	D	7.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	76	-	88	-	-	-	-	1	1	2	2
👤 Jonjoe Kenny	1	1	-	7	2	1	-	False	90	3	D	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	45	-	51	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Jorge Sánchez	4	1	3	13	8	2	-	False	90	35	M	7.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	21	-	24	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	5
👤 Konstantinos Thymianis	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	25	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Mady Camara	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	26	2	M	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	20	-	20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Magomed Ozdoev	2	-	1	6	2	1	-	False	90	27	M	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	38	1	45	-	-	-	-	-	-	3	1
👤 Tomasz Kędziora	-	-	-	3	3	-	1	True	90	16	D	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	51	-	56	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Vasilios Nikolakoulis	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	81	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

League standings

View standings

Teams in this match: Celta Vigo and PAOK

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lyon		8	7	0	1	18	5	13	21	L W W W W
2	Aston Villa		8	7	0	1	14	6	8	21	W W W W W
3	FC Midtjylland		8	6	1	1	18	8	10	19	W L W D W
4	Real Betis		8	5	2	1	13	7	6	17	W W W L W
5	FC Porto		8	5	2	1	13	7	6	17	D W W D W
6	SC Braga		8	5	2	1	11	5	6	17	L D W W D
7	SC Freiburg		8	5	2	1	10	4	6	17	W D W W L
8	AS Roma		8	5	1	2	13	6	7	16	W W W W D
9	Genk		8	5	1	2	11	7	4	16	W W L W W
10	Bologna		8	4	3	1	14	7	7	15	D W W D W
11	VfB Stuttgart		8	5	0	3	15	9	6	15	W W W L W
12	Ferencvarosi TC		8	4	3	1	12	11	1	15	W D W D L
13	Nottingham Forest		8	4	2	2	15	7	8	14	D W W L W
14	Plzen		8	3	5	0	8	3	5	14	D D D D W
15	FK Crvena Zvezda		8	4	2	2	7	6	1	14	W W W W D
16	Celta Vigo	1-0	8	4	1	3	15	11	4	13	W L L W D
17	PAOK	1-0	8	3	3	2	17	14	3	12	W D D W L
18	Lille		8	4	0	4	12	9	3	12	L W L L W
19	Fenerbahce		8	3	3	2	10	7	3	12	D D W L D
20	Panathinaikos		8	3	3	2	11	9	2	12	W W D D D
21	Celtic		8	3	2	3	13	15	-2	11	L W L D W
22	Ludogorets		8	3	1	4	12	15	-3	10	L W D L W
23	Dinamo Zagreb		8	3	1	4	12	16	-4	10	L L L W L
24	Brann		8	2	3	3	9	11	-2	9	D D L D L
25	BSC Young Boys		8	3	0	5	10	16	-6	9	L L W L L
26	Sturm Graz		8	2	1	5	5	11	-6	7	D L L L W
27	FCSB		8	2	1	5	9	16	-7	7	L L W L D
28	GO Ahead Eagles		8	2	1	5	6	14	-8	7	L L L L D
29	Feyenoord		8	2	0	6	11	15	-4	6	L L L W L
30	FC Basel 1893		8	2	0	6	9	13	-4	6	W L L L L
31	Red Bull Salzburg		8	2	0	6	10	15	-5	6	W L L W L
32	Rangers		8	1	1	6	5	14	-9	4	L D L W L
33	Nice		8	1	0	7	7	15	-8	3	L L L W L
34	Utrecht		8	0	1	7	5	15	-10	1	D L L L L
35	Malmo FF		8	0	1	7	4	15	-11	1	L L L L L
36	Maccabi Tel Aviv		8	0	1	7	2	22	-20	1	L L L L L

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Predict the score

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CatBoost Prediction

Model not available yet. Run train_catboost to train a model.

Qualification Prediction Based on 5000 simulations

Celta Vigo

100.0%

PAOK

0.0%

Match Type: Two-leg tie

First leg: PAOK 1-2 Celta Vigo

Current aggregate: 3-1

Method: Monte Carlo (Dixon-Coles + Elo fallback, elo-weighted ET/PEN)

How was this calculated?

We simulate this knockout matchup using scoreline probabilities from Dixon-Coles where available, with an Elo fallback when needed. For two-leg ties we aggregate both legs and count who advances; for single-match knockouts and aggregate-level ties we resolve the shootout step with an elo-weighted draw rather than a 50/50 flip.

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

42.6%

Home Win

28.0%

Draw

29.4%

Away Win

Expected Goals

Celta Vigo 1.48

PAOK 1.20

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

Celta Vigo

PAOK

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Qualification %

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)