VfB Stuttgart vs Celtic - Football Platform

Europa League

Celtic

1' L. McCowan

26 Feb 2026

18:45

MHPArena

First Leg Second Leg

Aggregate 4 - 2

Score Summary

VfB Stuttgart

0 1

FT HT 0–1

Celtic

1' L. McCowan

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

63% Win

VfB Stuttgart 1587 1574 ▼ -13

37% Win

Celtic 1494 1507 ▲ 13

xPi Expected win probability

57% Win

VfB Stuttgart 0.35 0.48 ▲ 0.13

30% Win

Celtic 0.12 0.07 ▼ -0.05

Top Performers

Top Rated

Marcelo Saracchi

Celtic

8.3

8.3 rating · 90 min

Most Clinical

Luke McCowan

Celtic

7.9

1 goals

Best Creator

Chema Andrés

VfB Stuttgart

6.6

4 key passes · 0 assists

Defensive Leader

Maximilian Mittelstädt

VfB Stuttgart

7.9

5 tackles · 0 interceptions

Match Momentum

VfB Stuttgart 80% Celtic 20%

Key Stats Snapshot

66 Possession 34

24 Shots 3

8 On Target 2

Form Context

VfB Stuttgart

W W W L W

Celtic

L W L D W

Smart Insight

VfB Stuttgart controlled momentum for most phases of play.
VfB Stuttgart generated the clearer shot volume edge.
Elo movement favors Celtic after this result.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 51.1%

Draw 26.7%

Away Win 22.2%

Expected Goals 1.66 - 1.02

Qualification %

VfB Stuttgart 100.0%

Celtic 0.0%

Based on 5000 simulations

Standings (Top 6)

View full standings

#	Team	Pts	Form
1	Lyon	21	L W W W W
2	Aston Villa	21	W W W W W
3	FC Midtjylland	19	W L W D W
4	Real Betis	17	W W W L W
5	FC Porto	17	D W W D W
6	SC Braga	17	L D W W D

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

66 Possession 34

8 Shots 2

24 Shots 3

6 Offsides 2

6 Shots Off Goal 1

8 Shots On Goal 2

24 Total Shots 3

66 Ball Possession 34

523 Passes Accurate 241

600 Total Passes 311

87% Passes % 77%

10 Blocked Shots 0

1 Goalkeeper Saves 6

6 Fouls 13

0 Red Cards 0

0 Yellow Cards 1

13 Corner Kicks 7

15 Shots Insidebox 2

9 Shots Outsidebox 1

2.13 expected_goals 0.30

0 goals_prevented 0

VfB Stuttgart — Player Statistics

Player	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Alexander Nübel	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	False	90	33	G	6.6	False	0	1	1	-	-	33	-	42	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Ameen Al-Dakhil	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	2	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Angelo Stiller	1	-	1	6	4	-	-	False	26	6	M	7.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	36	1	38	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	2
👤 Atakan Karazor	-	-	-	5	2	1	2	True	90	16	M	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	49	2	58	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	-
👤 Badredine Bouanani	3	1	1	5	1	-	-	False	85	27	M	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	12	-	16	-	-	-	3	4	-	-	-
👤 Bilal El Khannouss	-	-	-	2	1	1	1	False	11	11	M	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	13	-	14	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Chema Andrés	-	2	-	8	3	-	-	False	64	30	M	6.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	32	4	39	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Chris Führich	1	-	1	2	2	-	1	False	45	10	M	8.2	True	0	0	-	-	2	40	4	42	-	-	-	1	2	-	-	-
👤 Deniz Undav	3	2	1	8	1	1	-	False	90	26	F	7.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	39	4	44	-	-	-	2	2	-	-	-
👤 Ermedin Demirović	-	-	-	4	2	-	1	False	26	9	F	6.2	True	0	0	-	-	1	7	-	9	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Fabian Bredlow	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	1	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Finn Jeltsch	1	-	1	6	2	1	-	False	90	29	D	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	1	67	-	75	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1
👤 Florian Hellstern	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	44	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jamie Leweling	3	-	2	8	4	-	2	False	45	18	M	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	15	-	23	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Josha Vagnoman	2	-	2	5	3	1	-	False	90	4	D	7.7	False	0	0	-	-	1	34	3	37	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Lorenz Assignon	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	22	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Luca Jaquez	-	-	-	9	7	1	2	False	72	14	D	7.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	58	-	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	3	1
👤 Maximilian Mittelstädt	1	-	1	10	8	-	1	False	90	7	D	7.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	60	2	69	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	5
👤 Mirza Ćatović	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	35	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Nikolas Nartey	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	28	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Ramon Hendriks	-	-	-	3	-	-	-	False	18	3	D	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	11	-	11	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Tiago Tomás	2	-	1	7	2	-	1	False	64	8	F	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	1	17	-	22	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-

Celtic — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Anthony Ralston	0	-	1	-	7	4	1	1	False	35	56	D	7.2	True	0	-	-	-	7	-	11	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1
👤 Auston Trusty	0	-	-	-	6	4	1	-	False	90	6	D	7.9	False	0	-	-	-	37	-	39	-	-	-	-	-	4	1	2
👤 Benjamin Nygren	0	-	1	-	4	2	-	1	False	22	8	F	6.7	True	0	-	-	-	8	-	9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Callum McGregor	0	1	1	1	4	2	1	-	True	90	42	M	6.9	False	0	-	-	-	29	-	37	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	-
👤 Colby Donovan	1	-	1	-	5	1	1	-	False	55	51	D	6.6	False	0	-	-	1	6	-	13	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
👤 Daizen Maeda	0	1	4	-	13	4	1	-	False	90	38	M	5.9	False	0	-	-	-	2	-	5	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	2
👤 Dane Murray	0	-	-	-	5	4	1	-	False	90	47	D	8.2	False	0	-	-	-	26	-	32	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	2
👤 James Forrest	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	49	M	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Junior Adamu	0	2	-	2	10	5	4	2	False	55	9	F	7.2	False	1	-	-	-	6	1	10	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-
👤 Kasper Schmeichel	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	1	G	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Kelechi Iheanacho	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	12	17	F	6.7	True	0	-	-	-	1	1	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Kieran Tierney	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	63	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Liam Scales	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	5	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Luke McCowan	0	2	1	2	9	6	-	1	False	68	14	M	7.9	False	0	-	1	-	21	-	24	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	2
👤 Marcelo Saracchi	0	-	-	-	4	3	1	-	False	90	36	D	8.3	False	0	-	-	-	28	-	36	-	-	-	-	-	4	1	2
👤 Paulo Bernardo	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	28	M	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Reo Hatate	0	-	2	-	3	-	1	-	False	78	41	M	6.7	False	0	-	-	-	24	-	28	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	-
👤 Sean Mcardle	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	50	M	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Sebastian Tounekti	0	-	-	-	2	1	-	-	False	22	23	F	6.7	True	0	-	-	-	5	-	5	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Thomas Hatton	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	52	M	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Tomáš Čvančara	0	-	-	-	8	5	-	-	False	35	11	F	6.6	True	0	-	-	1	4	-	10	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Viljami Sinisalo	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	12	G	7.9	False	0	6	-	-	21	-	32	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Yang Hyun-Jun	0	2	-	-	9	5	1	-	False	68	13	M	7.5	False	0	-	-	-	16	-	19	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	3

League standings

View standings

Teams in this match: VfB Stuttgart and Celtic

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lyon		8	7	0	1	18	5	13	21	L W W W W
2	Aston Villa		8	7	0	1	14	6	8	21	W W W W W
3	FC Midtjylland		8	6	1	1	18	8	10	19	W L W D W
4	Real Betis		8	5	2	1	13	7	6	17	W W W L W
5	FC Porto		8	5	2	1	13	7	6	17	D W W D W
6	SC Braga		8	5	2	1	11	5	6	17	L D W W D
7	SC Freiburg		8	5	2	1	10	4	6	17	W D W W L
8	AS Roma		8	5	1	2	13	6	7	16	W W W W D
9	Genk		8	5	1	2	11	7	4	16	W W L W W
10	Bologna		8	4	3	1	14	7	7	15	D W W D W
11	VfB Stuttgart	0-1	8	5	0	3	15	9	6	15	W W W L W
12	Ferencvarosi TC		8	4	3	1	12	11	1	15	W D W D L
13	Nottingham Forest		8	4	2	2	15	7	8	14	D W W L W
14	Plzen		8	3	5	0	8	3	5	14	D D D D W
15	FK Crvena Zvezda		8	4	2	2	7	6	1	14	W W W W D
16	Celta Vigo		8	4	1	3	15	11	4	13	W L L W D
17	PAOK		8	3	3	2	17	14	3	12	W D D W L
18	Lille		8	4	0	4	12	9	3	12	L W L L W
19	Fenerbahce		8	3	3	2	10	7	3	12	D D W L D
20	Panathinaikos		8	3	3	2	11	9	2	12	W W D D D
21	Celtic	0-1	8	3	2	3	13	15	-2	11	L W L D W
22	Ludogorets		8	3	1	4	12	15	-3	10	L W D L W
23	Dinamo Zagreb		8	3	1	4	12	16	-4	10	L L L W L
24	Brann		8	2	3	3	9	11	-2	9	D D L D L
25	BSC Young Boys		8	3	0	5	10	16	-6	9	L L W L L
26	Sturm Graz		8	2	1	5	5	11	-6	7	D L L L W
27	FCSB		8	2	1	5	9	16	-7	7	L L W L D
28	GO Ahead Eagles		8	2	1	5	6	14	-8	7	L L L L D
29	Feyenoord		8	2	0	6	11	15	-4	6	L L L W L
30	FC Basel 1893		8	2	0	6	9	13	-4	6	W L L L L
31	Red Bull Salzburg		8	2	0	6	10	15	-5	6	W L L W L
32	Rangers		8	1	1	6	5	14	-9	4	L D L W L
33	Nice		8	1	0	7	7	15	-8	3	L L L W L
34	Utrecht		8	0	1	7	5	15	-10	1	D L L L L
35	Malmo FF		8	0	1	7	4	15	-11	1	L L L L L
36	Maccabi Tel Aviv		8	0	1	7	2	22	-20	1	L L L L L

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Predict the score

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CatBoost Prediction

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Qualification Prediction Based on 5000 simulations

VfB Stuttgart

100.0%

Celtic

0.0%

Match Type: Two-leg tie

First leg: Celtic 1-4 VfB Stuttgart

Current aggregate: 2-4

Method: Monte Carlo (Dixon-Coles + Elo fallback, elo-weighted ET/PEN)

How was this calculated?

We simulate this knockout matchup using scoreline probabilities from Dixon-Coles where available, with an Elo fallback when needed. For two-leg ties we aggregate both legs and count who advances; for single-match knockouts and aggregate-level ties we resolve the shootout step with an elo-weighted draw rather than a 50/50 flip.

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

51.1%

Home Win

26.7%

Draw

22.2%

Away Win

Expected Goals

VfB Stuttgart 1.66

Celtic 1.02

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

VfB Stuttgart

Celtic

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Qualification %

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)