FK Crvena Zvezda vs Lille - Football Platform

AET

Europa League

Lille

4' O. Giroud
99' N. Ngoy

26 Feb 2026

18:45

Stadion Rajko Mit

First Leg Second Leg

Aggregate 1 - 1

Score Summary

FK Crvena Zvezda

0 1

AET HT 0–1

Lille

4' O. Giroud
99' N. Ngoy

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

56% Win

FK Crvena Zvezda 1541 1530 ▼ -11

44% Win

Lille 1501 1512 ▲ 11

xPi Expected win probability

36% Win

FK Crvena Zvezda 0.05 0.04 ▼ -0.01

42% Win

Lille 0.21 0.30 ▲ 0.09

Top Performers

Top Rated

Berke Özer

Lille

8.2

8.2 rating · 120 min

Most Clinical

Olivier Giroud

Lille

7.7

1 goals

Best Creator

Félix Correia

Lille

7.3

2 key passes · 1 assists

Defensive Leader

Rade Krunić

FK Crvena Zvezda

7.0

2 tackles · 4 interceptions

Match Momentum

FK Crvena Zvezda 27% Lille 73%

Key Stats Snapshot

56 Possession 44

15 Shots 16

3 On Target 8

Form Context

FK Crvena Zvezda

W W W W D

Lille

L W L L W

Smart Insight

Lille carried stronger momentum across the match profile.
Elo movement favors Lille after this result.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 32.2%

Draw 28.3%

Away Win 39.5%

Expected Goals 1.26 - 1.42

Qualification %

FK Crvena Zvezda 0.0%

Lille 100.0%

Based on 5000 simulations

Standings (Top 6)

View full standings

#	Team	Pts	Form
1	Lyon	21	L W W W W
2	Aston Villa	21	W W W W W
3	FC Midtjylland	19	W L W D W
4	Real Betis	17	W W W L W
5	FC Porto	17	D W W D W
6	SC Braga	17	L D W W D

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

56 Possession 44

3 Shots 8

15 Shots 16

4 Offsides 2

5 Shots Off Goal 2

3 Shots On Goal 8

15 Total Shots 16

56 Ball Possession 44

474 Passes Accurate 359

582 Total Passes 474

81% Passes % 76%

7 Blocked Shots 6

6 Goalkeeper Saves 3

17 Fouls 13

0 Red Cards 0

3 Yellow Cards 1

8 Corner Kicks 8

8 Shots Insidebox 9

7 Shots Outsidebox 7

0.90 expected_goals 1.18

0 goals_prevented 0

FK Crvena Zvezda — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Adem Avdić	1	3	-	1	7	3	2	-	False	15	71	D	7	True	0	0	-	-	-	5	2	7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Aleksandar Katai	0	-	1	-	3	1	-	-	False	16	10	M	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	3	-	5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Bruno Duarte	0	2	1	1	16	6	1	1	False	120	17	F	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	2	24	1	38	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Franklin Tebo	1	-	-	-	4	2	2	1	False	45	30	D	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	18	-	23	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Jay Enem	0	-	-	-	7	2	1	-	False	45	42	F	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	6	-	10	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Luka Zaric	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	40	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Mahmudu Bajo	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	6	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Marko Arnautović	0	-	1	-	9	3	3	2	False	75	89	F	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	1	20	1	24	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Matheus	0	1	-	1	1	1	-	-	False	120	1	G	7.3	False	0	2	6	-	-	35	-	48	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Miloš Veljković	0	-	1	-	9	5	-	-	False	75	13	D	7.2	True	0	0	-	-	-	50	-	58	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	4
👤 Nair Tiknizyan	0	3	1	1	11	6	-	-	False	105	23	M	7	False	0	0	-	-	-	33	-	42	-	-	-	-	1	2	-	4
👤 Omri Glazer	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	18	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Owusu Douglas	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	False	16	35	M	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	10	-	10	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Rade Krunić	0	-	2	-	15	10	-	1	True	120	33	M	7	False	0	0	-	-	-	39	-	49	-	-	-	-	1	-	4	2
👤 Rodrigão	0	-	1	-	18	11	1	2	False	104	5	D	7.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	59	1	68	-	-	-	-	-	1	2	3
👤 Stefan Gudelj	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	45	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Strahinja Eraković	0	2	1	1	16	10	1	1	False	120	25	D	7.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	52	1	56	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	4
👤 Timi Max Elšnik	0	1	1	1	8	5	2	1	False	49	21	M	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	24	1	30	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Tomás Händel	1	-	-	-	7	2	2	-	False	71	20	M	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	26	-	29	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Vasilije Kostov	0	6	-	3	13	8	-	2	False	104	22	M	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	22	-	27	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	1
👤 Vuk Draškić	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	28	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Young-woo Seol	0	-	1	-	9	6	2	2	False	120	66	M	7.2	False	0	0	-	-	1	48	1	58	-	-	-	1	1	1	1	3

Lille — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Aissa Mandi	0	-	-	-	4	2	1	1	False	120	23	D	7.9	False	0	-	-	-	43	1	52	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	1
👤 Arnaud Bodart	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	16	G	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Ayyoub Bouaddi	1	2	3	1	16	6	3	1	False	120	32	M	6.7	False	0	-	-	-	34	1	39	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	2
👤 Benjamin André	0	1	2	1	25	12	3	2	True	120	21	M	8	False	1	-	-	-	48	1	61	-	-	-	1	1	2	3	2
👤 Berke Özer	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	120	1	G	8.2	False	0	3	-	-	30	-	49	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Calvin Verdonk	0	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	False	15	24	D	6.9	True	0	-	-	-	5	-	9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Chancel Mbemba	0	-	-	-	9	7	-	2	False	120	18	D	7.7	False	0	-	-	-	37	1	45	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1
👤 Félix Correia	0	2	1	1	9	5	-	2	False	49	27	F	7.3	True	1	-	-	-	15	2	18	-	-	-	1	1	-	2	2
👤 Gaëtan Perrin	0	3	-	1	9	3	1	1	False	71	28	M	6.3	False	0	-	-	-	14	-	19	-	-	-	2	2	-	-	-
👤 Hakon Arnar Haraldsson	0	4	1	2	14	5	1	-	False	95	10	M	6.7	False	0	-	-	-	21	1	30	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Matías Fernández	0	2	1	-	13	3	1	2	False	120	7	M	6.5	False	0	-	-	-	22	2	26	-	-	-	1	3	-	-	-
👤 Maxima Goffi	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	38	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Nabil Bentaleb	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	6	M	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Nathan Ngoy	0	1	-	-	5	2	-	-	False	25	3	D	7.6	True	0	-	1	-	7	1	10	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	1
👤 Ngal'ayel Mukau	0	3	-	3	6	4	-	-	False	25	17	M	6.6	True	0	-	-	-	6	-	9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Noah Edjouma	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	20	F	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Olivier Giroud	0	-	-	-	26	13	3	2	False	120	9	F	7.7	False	0	-	1	2	27	1	38	-	-	-	2	2	-	-	1
👤 Romain Perraud	0	3	-	1	8	4	-	1	False	105	15	D	7.3	False	0	-	-	-	17	1	26	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	2
👤 Saad Boussadia	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	42	M	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Soriba Diaoune	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	35	F	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Tiago Santos	0	3	1	1	9	6	-	3	False	95	22	D	7.3	False	0	-	-	-	33	-	43	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	1
👤 Zadig Lanssade	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	60	G	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

League standings

View standings

Teams in this match: FK Crvena Zvezda and Lille

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lyon		8	7	0	1	18	5	13	21	L W W W W
2	Aston Villa		8	7	0	1	14	6	8	21	W W W W W
3	FC Midtjylland		8	6	1	1	18	8	10	19	W L W D W
4	Real Betis		8	5	2	1	13	7	6	17	W W W L W
5	FC Porto		8	5	2	1	13	7	6	17	D W W D W
6	SC Braga		8	5	2	1	11	5	6	17	L D W W D
7	SC Freiburg		8	5	2	1	10	4	6	17	W D W W L
8	AS Roma		8	5	1	2	13	6	7	16	W W W W D
9	Genk		8	5	1	2	11	7	4	16	W W L W W
10	Bologna		8	4	3	1	14	7	7	15	D W W D W
11	VfB Stuttgart		8	5	0	3	15	9	6	15	W W W L W
12	Ferencvarosi TC		8	4	3	1	12	11	1	15	W D W D L
13	Nottingham Forest		8	4	2	2	15	7	8	14	D W W L W
14	Plzen		8	3	5	0	8	3	5	14	D D D D W
15	FK Crvena Zvezda	0-1	8	4	2	2	7	6	1	14	W W W W D
16	Celta Vigo		8	4	1	3	15	11	4	13	W L L W D
17	PAOK		8	3	3	2	17	14	3	12	W D D W L
18	Lille	0-1	8	4	0	4	12	9	3	12	L W L L W
19	Fenerbahce		8	3	3	2	10	7	3	12	D D W L D
20	Panathinaikos		8	3	3	2	11	9	2	12	W W D D D
21	Celtic		8	3	2	3	13	15	-2	11	L W L D W
22	Ludogorets		8	3	1	4	12	15	-3	10	L W D L W
23	Dinamo Zagreb		8	3	1	4	12	16	-4	10	L L L W L
24	Brann		8	2	3	3	9	11	-2	9	D D L D L
25	BSC Young Boys		8	3	0	5	10	16	-6	9	L L W L L
26	Sturm Graz		8	2	1	5	5	11	-6	7	D L L L W
27	FCSB		8	2	1	5	9	16	-7	7	L L W L D
28	GO Ahead Eagles		8	2	1	5	6	14	-8	7	L L L L D
29	Feyenoord		8	2	0	6	11	15	-4	6	L L L W L
30	FC Basel 1893		8	2	0	6	9	13	-4	6	W L L L L
31	Red Bull Salzburg		8	2	0	6	10	15	-5	6	W L L W L
32	Rangers		8	1	1	6	5	14	-9	4	L D L W L
33	Nice		8	1	0	7	7	15	-8	3	L L L W L
34	Utrecht		8	0	1	7	5	15	-10	1	D L L L L
35	Malmo FF		8	0	1	7	4	15	-11	1	L L L L L
36	Maccabi Tel Aviv		8	0	1	7	2	22	-20	1	L L L L L

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Predict the score

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CatBoost Prediction

Model not available yet. Run train_catboost to train a model.

Qualification Prediction Based on 5000 simulations

FK Crvena Zvezda

0.0%

Lille

100.0%

Match Type: Two-leg tie

First leg: Lille 0-1 FK Crvena Zvezda

Current aggregate: 1-1

Method: Monte Carlo (Dixon-Coles + Elo fallback, elo-weighted ET/PEN)

How was this calculated?

We simulate this knockout matchup using scoreline probabilities from Dixon-Coles where available, with an Elo fallback when needed. For two-leg ties we aggregate both legs and count who advances; for single-match knockouts and aggregate-level ties we resolve the shootout step with an elo-weighted draw rather than a 50/50 flip.

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

32.2%

Home Win

28.3%

Draw

39.5%

Away Win

Expected Goals

FK Crvena Zvezda 1.26

Lille 1.42

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

FK Crvena Zvezda

Lille

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Qualification %

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)