VfB Stuttgart vs FC Porto - Football Platform

Europa League

FC Porto

21' T. Moffi
27' R. Mora
40' D. Undav

12 Mar 2026

18:45

MHPArena

First Leg Second Leg

Aggregate 1 - 4

Score Summary

VfB Stuttgart

1 2

FT HT 1–2

FC Porto

D. Undav 40'

21' T. Moffi
27' R. Mora

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

58% Win

VfB Stuttgart 1578 1566 ▼ -12

42% Win

FC Porto 1522 1531 ▲ 9

xPi Expected win probability

55% Win

VfB Stuttgart 0.38 0.48 ▲ 0.10

31% Win

FC Porto 0.28 0.35 ▲ 0.07

Top Performers

Top Rated

Rodrigo Mora

FC Porto

8.0

8.0 rating · 59 min

Most Clinical

Deniz Undav

VfB Stuttgart

7.3

1 goals

Best Creator

Angelo Stiller

VfB Stuttgart

7.2

3 key passes · 0 assists

Defensive Leader

Alberto Costa

FC Porto

6.7

4 tackles · 1 interceptions

Match Momentum

VfB Stuttgart 54% FC Porto 46%

Key Stats Snapshot

60 Possession 40

14 Shots 14

7 On Target 6

Form Context

VfB Stuttgart

W W W L W

FC Porto

D W W D W

Smart Insight

VfB Stuttgart controlled momentum for most phases of play.
Elo movement favors FC Porto after this result.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 49.2%

Draw 27.3%

Away Win 23.5%

Expected Goals 1.61 - 1.05

Qualification %

VfB Stuttgart 0.0%

FC Porto 100.0%

Based on 5000 simulations

Standings (Top 6)

View full standings

#	Team	Scr	Pts	Form
1	Lyon		21	L W W W W
2	Aston Villa		21	W W W W W
3	FC Midtjylland		19	W L W D W
4	Real Betis		17	W W W L W
5	FC Porto	1-2	17	D W W D W
6	SC Braga		17	L D W W D

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

60 Possession 40

7 Shots 6

14 Shots 14

2 Offsides 1

7 Shots Off Goal 6

7 Shots On Goal 6

14 Total Shots 14

60 Ball Possession 40

443 Passes Accurate 261

519 Total Passes 349

85% Passes % 75%

0 Blocked Shots 2

4 Goalkeeper Saves 6

18 Fouls 9

0 Red Cards 0

2 Yellow Cards 4

1 Corner Kicks 3

4 Shots Insidebox 8

10 Shots Outsidebox 6

0.63 expected_goals 0.94

0 goals_prevented 0

VfB Stuttgart — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Alexander Nübel	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	False	90	33	G	7.5	False	0	2	4	-	-	26	-	37	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Ameen Al-Dakhil	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	2	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Angelo Stiller	0	1	-	-	10	6	-	2	False	90	6	M	7.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	82	3	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	3
👤 Atakan Karazor	0	-	-	-	4	2	1	-	True	84	16	M	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	33	-	39	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Badredine Bouanani	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	27	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Bilal El Khannouss	1	1	1	-	13	3	3	1	False	90	11	M	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	39	1	48	-	-	-	1	5	-	1	1
👤 Chema Andrés	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	30	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Chris Führich	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	20	10	M	6.5	True	0	0	-	-	-	8	-	12	-	-	-	1	2	-	1	-
👤 Deniz Undav	0	1	-	1	6	2	-	-	False	90	26	M	7.3	False	0	0	-	1	-	22	2	26	-	-	-	2	2	-	-	1
👤 Ermedin Demirović	0	-	1	-	8	1	3	-	False	63	9	F	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	1	10	1	11	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	1
👤 Fabian Bredlow	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	1	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Finn Jeltsch	1	-	-	-	5	1	4	-	False	70	29	D	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	34	-	38	-	-	-	1	2	1	-	-
👤 Florian Hellstern	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	44	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jamie Leweling	0	3	-	-	11	3	4	2	False	90	18	M	6	False	0	0	-	-	-	31	1	38	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	1
👤 Jeff Chabot	0	-	-	-	8	5	1	1	False	90	24	D	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	62	-	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	2
👤 Lorenz Assignon	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	22	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Luca Jaquez	0	-	-	-	2	1	-	-	False	20	14	D	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	15	-	17	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-
👤 Maximilian Mittelstädt	0	-	1	-	1	-	-	-	False	13	7	D	6.6	True	0	0	-	-	-	6	1	7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Nikolas Nartey	0	2	1	-	9	3	1	-	False	70	28	D	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	25	1	29	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	1
👤 Ramon Hendriks	0	-	-	-	5	5	-	-	False	90	3	D	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	45	-	49	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	3
👤 Tiago Tomás	0	1	-	1	4	4	1	2	False	27	8	F	7	True	0	0	-	-	1	5	-	6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

FC Porto — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Alan Varela	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	10	22	M	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	2	-	3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Alberto Costa	0	2	-	1	8	6	1	1	False	90	20	D	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	18	1	28	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	4
👤 Borja Sainz	0	1	-	-	7	2	1	2	False	59	17	F	6.2	False	1	0	-	-	1	9	2	11	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Cláudio Ramos	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	14	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Deniz Gül	0	1	-	-	4	1	1	1	False	31	27	F	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	3	2	5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Diogo Costa	0	1	-	1	2	2	-	1	True	90	99	G	7.6	False	0	1	6	-	-	32	-	49	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Dominik Prpić	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	21	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Francisco Moura	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	74	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Gabri Veiga	0	-	-	-	3	2	-	1	False	20	10	M	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	2	-	3	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	1
👤 Jakub Kiwior	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	4	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jan Bednarek	0	-	-	-	5	2	1	-	False	90	5	D	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	29	-	35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 João Costa	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	24	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Martim Fernandes	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	52	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Pablo Rosario	0	1	1	1	12	10	1	2	False	90	13	M	7.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	23	-	30	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	3
👤 Pepê	0	-	-	-	4	2	-	1	False	31	11	F	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	3	-	8	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	-
👤 Rodrigo Mora	0	-	-	-	5	4	-	2	False	59	86	M	8	False	0	0	-	1	-	13	1	17	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	1
👤 Seko Fofana	0	-	-	-	2	1	-	1	False	80	42	M	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	32	3	34	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Terem Moffi	0	2	-	1	6	3	1	-	False	59	29	F	7.9	False	0	0	-	1	-	10	-	17	-	-	-	2	2	-	-	-
👤 Thiago Silva	1	-	-	-	8	5	2	-	False	90	3	D	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	34	-	41	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1
👤 Tiago Andrade	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	59	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Victor Froholdt	0	-	1	-	4	1	-	-	False	31	8	M	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	7	1	9	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 William Gomes	1	-	-	-	9	3	1	1	False	70	7	F	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	12	1	18	-	-	-	1	2	-	1	2
👤 Zaidu Sanusi	1	2	-	-	8	6	-	4	False	90	12	D	7.5	False	1	0	-	-	-	30	1	39	-	-	-	1	2	-	1	-

League standings

View standings

Teams in this match: VfB Stuttgart and FC Porto

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lyon		8	7	0	1	18	5	13	21	L W W W W
2	Aston Villa		8	7	0	1	14	6	8	21	W W W W W
3	FC Midtjylland		8	6	1	1	18	8	10	19	W L W D W
4	Real Betis		8	5	2	1	13	7	6	17	W W W L W
5	FC Porto	1-2	8	5	2	1	13	7	6	17	D W W D W
6	SC Braga		8	5	2	1	11	5	6	17	L D W W D
7	SC Freiburg		8	5	2	1	10	4	6	17	W D W W L
8	AS Roma		8	5	1	2	13	6	7	16	W W W W D
9	Genk		8	5	1	2	11	7	4	16	W W L W W
10	Bologna		8	4	3	1	14	7	7	15	D W W D W
11	VfB Stuttgart	1-2	8	5	0	3	15	9	6	15	W W W L W
12	Ferencvarosi TC		8	4	3	1	12	11	1	15	W D W D L
13	Nottingham Forest		8	4	2	2	15	7	8	14	D W W L W
14	Plzen		8	3	5	0	8	3	5	14	D D D D W
15	FK Crvena Zvezda		8	4	2	2	7	6	1	14	W W W W D
16	Celta Vigo		8	4	1	3	15	11	4	13	W L L W D
17	PAOK		8	3	3	2	17	14	3	12	W D D W L
18	Lille		8	4	0	4	12	9	3	12	L W L L W
19	Fenerbahce		8	3	3	2	10	7	3	12	D D W L D
20	Panathinaikos		8	3	3	2	11	9	2	12	W W D D D
21	Celtic		8	3	2	3	13	15	-2	11	L W L D W
22	Ludogorets		8	3	1	4	12	15	-3	10	L W D L W
23	Dinamo Zagreb		8	3	1	4	12	16	-4	10	L L L W L
24	Brann		8	2	3	3	9	11	-2	9	D D L D L
25	BSC Young Boys		8	3	0	5	10	16	-6	9	L L W L L
26	Sturm Graz		8	2	1	5	5	11	-6	7	D L L L W
27	FCSB		8	2	1	5	9	16	-7	7	L L W L D
28	GO Ahead Eagles		8	2	1	5	6	14	-8	7	L L L L D
29	Feyenoord		8	2	0	6	11	15	-4	6	L L L W L
30	FC Basel 1893		8	2	0	6	9	13	-4	6	W L L L L
31	Red Bull Salzburg		8	2	0	6	10	15	-5	6	W L L W L
32	Rangers		8	1	1	6	5	14	-9	4	L D L W L
33	Nice		8	1	0	7	7	15	-8	3	L L L W L
34	Utrecht		8	0	1	7	5	15	-10	1	D L L L L
35	Malmo FF		8	0	1	7	4	15	-11	1	L L L L L
36	Maccabi Tel Aviv		8	0	1	7	2	22	-20	1	L L L L L

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Predict the score

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CatBoost Prediction

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Qualification Prediction Based on 5000 simulations

VfB Stuttgart

0.0%

FC Porto

100.0%

Match Type: Two-leg tie

First leg: VfB Stuttgart 1-2 FC Porto

Current aggregate: 1-4

Method: Monte Carlo (Dixon-Coles + Elo fallback, elo-weighted ET/PEN)

How was this calculated?

We simulate this knockout matchup using scoreline probabilities from Dixon-Coles where available, with an Elo fallback when needed. For two-leg ties we aggregate both legs and count who advances; for single-match knockouts and aggregate-level ties we resolve the shootout step with an elo-weighted draw rather than a 50/50 flip.

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

49.2%

Home Win

27.3%

Draw

23.5%

Away Win

Expected Goals

VfB Stuttgart 1.61

FC Porto 1.05

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

VfB Stuttgart

FC Porto

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Qualification %

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)