Nottingham Forest vs FC Midtjylland

Europa League

FC Midtjylland

80' Cho Gue-Sung

12 Mar 2026

21:00

City Ground

First Leg Second Leg

Aggregate 2 - 2

Score Summary

Nottingham Forest

0 1

FT HT 0–0

FC Midtjylland

80' Cho Gue-Sung

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

38% Win

Nottingham Forest 1478 1470 ▼ -8

62% Win

FC Midtjylland 1560 1567 ▲ 8

xPi Expected win probability

49% Win

Nottingham Forest 0.21 0.22 ▲ 0.02

34% Win

FC Midtjylland 0.08 -0.03 ▼ -0.11

Top Performers

Top Rated

Philip Billing

FC Midtjylland

8.5

8.5 rating · 90 min

Most Clinical

Gue-sung Cho

FC Midtjylland

7.7

1 goals

Best Creator

Morgan Gibbs-White

Nottingham Forest

6.3

4 key passes · 0 assists

Defensive Leader

Nicolás Domínguez

Nottingham Forest

6.9

3 tackles · 2 interceptions

Match Momentum

Nottingham Forest 75% FC Midtjylland 25%

Key Stats Snapshot

58 Possession 42

22 Shots 6

6 On Target 2

Form Context

Nottingham Forest

D W W L W

FC Midtjylland

W L W D W

Smart Insight

Nottingham Forest controlled momentum for most phases of play.
Nottingham Forest generated the clearer shot volume edge.
Elo movement favors FC Midtjylland after this result.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 45.0%

Draw 27.9%

Away Win 27.1%

Expected Goals 1.52 - 1.13

Qualification %

Nottingham Forest 100.0%

FC Midtjylland 0.0%

Based on 5000 simulations

Standings (Top 6)

View full standings

#	Team	Scr	Pts	Form
1	Lyon		21	L W W W W
2	Aston Villa		21	W W W W W
3	FC Midtjylland	0-1	19	W L W D W
4	Real Betis		17	W W W L W
5	FC Porto		17	D W W D W
6	SC Braga		17	L D W W D

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

58 Possession 42

6 Shots 2

22 Shots 6

2 Offsides 4

9 Shots Off Goal 2

6 Shots On Goal 2

22 Total Shots 6

58 Ball Possession 42

421 Passes Accurate 282

511 Total Passes 375

82% Passes % 75%

7 Blocked Shots 2

1 Goalkeeper Saves 5

9 Fouls 13

0 Red Cards 0

1 Yellow Cards 0

7 Corner Kicks 2

14 Shots Insidebox 3

8 Shots Outsidebox 3

1.72 expected_goals 0.69

0 goals_prevented 0

Nottingham Forest — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Angus Gunn	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	18	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Callum Hudson-Odoi	0	-	2	-	10	6	1	2	False	90	7	M	7.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	33	1	38	-	-	-	-	1	-	2	2
👤 Dilane Bakwa	0	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	False	8	29	F	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	7	1	7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Elliot Anderson	0	2	1	2	11	6	1	-	False	90	8	M	7.2	False	0	0	-	-	1	62	1	71	-	-	-	2	2	-	-	2
👤 Ibrahim Sangaré	0	-	-	-	2	2	-	1	False	21	6	M	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	21	-	21	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	1
👤 Igor Jesus	0	-	-	-	11	7	-	3	False	69	19	F	7	False	0	0	-	-	-	11	1	16	-	-	-	2	4	-	-	1
👤 Jair	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	9	23	D	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 James McAtee	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	24	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Keehan Willows	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	67	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Lorenzo Lucca	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	False	21	20	F	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	1	-	3	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Matz Sels	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	26	G	6.2	False	0	1	1	-	-	11	-	24	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Morato	1	1	1	-	5	1	1	-	False	45	4	D	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	17	-	21	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Morgan Gibbs-White	0	2	-	1	8	2	2	1	True	90	10	F	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	1	32	4	39	-	-	-	-	2	-	-	-
👤 Murillo	0	-	-	-	4	2	2	-	False	90	5	D	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	49	1	60	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	1
👤 Neco Williams	0	1	1	1	5	3	-	-	False	45	3	D	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	31	2	32	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	2
👤 Nicolás Domínguez	0	1	1	-	12	6	2	1	False	69	16	M	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	44	2	57	-	-	-	-	1	-	2	3
👤 Nikola Milenković	0	-	-	-	2	2	-	-	False	81	31	D	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	40	-	45	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	1
👤 Ola Aina	0	2	-	-	6	4	-	2	False	82	34	M	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	33	1	37	-	-	-	1	1	-	2	1
👤 Omari Hutchinson	0	4	-	2	9	5	-	1	False	90	21	F	7.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	29	4	38	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	2
👤 Ryan Yates	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	22	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Zach Abbott	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	44	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

FC Midtjylland — Player Statistics

Player	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Adam Gabriel	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	13	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Aral Şimşir	3	-	-	4	1	-	1	False	57	58	F	6.3	False	0	-	-	-	12	-	16	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-
👤 Denil Castillo	-	-	-	5	4	-	2	False	45	21	M	6.9	False	0	-	-	1	3	-	3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Edward Chilufya	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	14	F	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Elías Ólafsson	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	16	G	7.9	False	0	5	-	-	25	-	44	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Gue-sung Cho	-	-	-	6	3	2	1	False	33	10	F	7.7	True	0	-	1	-	3	-	4	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	1
👤 Han-Beom Lee	1	-	1	3	2	-	-	False	30	3	D	6.9	True	0	-	-	-	14	-	17	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jonas Lössl	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	1	G	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Junior Zé	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	39	M	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Júnior Brumado	1	1	1	8	3	1	1	False	57	74	F	6.3	False	0	-	-	2	4	-	7	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Kevin Mbabu	2	-	1	8	3	1	1	False	60	43	M	6.5	False	0	-	-	-	9	-	15	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	-
👤 Mads Bech Sørensen	-	1	-	4	3	-	-	True	90	22	D	7.7	False	0	-	-	-	26	-	36	-	-	-	-	-	3	-	2
👤 Mark Nnamdi Ugboh	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	60	G	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Martin Erlić	-	-	-	5	3	1	-	False	90	6	D	7.2	False	0	-	-	-	24	-	27	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1
👤 Mikael Uhre	-	1	-	4	1	2	-	False	33	17	F	6.2	True	0	-	-	-	7	-	10	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Ousmane Diao	-	1	-	9	4	3	-	False	90	4	D	7.2	False	1	-	-	-	38	2	49	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	2
👤 Pedro Bravo	1	1	-	10	3	-	-	False	90	19	M	6.7	False	0	-	-	-	27	1	32	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
👤 Philip Billing	4	-	3	11	8	1	1	False	90	8	M	8.5	False	0	-	-	-	44	1	53	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	2
👤 Valdemar Byskov	-	-	-	3	1	-	-	False	45	20	M	6.6	True	0	-	-	-	28	1	36	-	-	-	1	2	-	1	1
👤 Victor Bak Jensen	1	1	-	7	1	2	-	False	90	55	M	6.3	False	0	-	-	1	18	-	26	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	1

League standings

View standings

Teams in this match: Nottingham Forest and FC Midtjylland

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lyon		8	7	0	1	18	5	13	21	L W W W W
2	Aston Villa		8	7	0	1	14	6	8	21	W W W W W
3	FC Midtjylland	0-1	8	6	1	1	18	8	10	19	W L W D W
4	Real Betis		8	5	2	1	13	7	6	17	W W W L W
5	FC Porto		8	5	2	1	13	7	6	17	D W W D W
6	SC Braga		8	5	2	1	11	5	6	17	L D W W D
7	SC Freiburg		8	5	2	1	10	4	6	17	W D W W L
8	AS Roma		8	5	1	2	13	6	7	16	W W W W D
9	Genk		8	5	1	2	11	7	4	16	W W L W W
10	Bologna		8	4	3	1	14	7	7	15	D W W D W
11	VfB Stuttgart		8	5	0	3	15	9	6	15	W W W L W
12	Ferencvarosi TC		8	4	3	1	12	11	1	15	W D W D L
13	Nottingham Forest	0-1	8	4	2	2	15	7	8	14	D W W L W
14	Plzen		8	3	5	0	8	3	5	14	D D D D W
15	FK Crvena Zvezda		8	4	2	2	7	6	1	14	W W W W D
16	Celta Vigo		8	4	1	3	15	11	4	13	W L L W D
17	PAOK		8	3	3	2	17	14	3	12	W D D W L
18	Lille		8	4	0	4	12	9	3	12	L W L L W
19	Fenerbahce		8	3	3	2	10	7	3	12	D D W L D
20	Panathinaikos		8	3	3	2	11	9	2	12	W W D D D
21	Celtic		8	3	2	3	13	15	-2	11	L W L D W
22	Ludogorets		8	3	1	4	12	15	-3	10	L W D L W
23	Dinamo Zagreb		8	3	1	4	12	16	-4	10	L L L W L
24	Brann		8	2	3	3	9	11	-2	9	D D L D L
25	BSC Young Boys		8	3	0	5	10	16	-6	9	L L W L L
26	Sturm Graz		8	2	1	5	5	11	-6	7	D L L L W
27	FCSB		8	2	1	5	9	16	-7	7	L L W L D
28	GO Ahead Eagles		8	2	1	5	6	14	-8	7	L L L L D
29	Feyenoord		8	2	0	6	11	15	-4	6	L L L W L
30	FC Basel 1893		8	2	0	6	9	13	-4	6	W L L L L
31	Red Bull Salzburg		8	2	0	6	10	15	-5	6	W L L W L
32	Rangers		8	1	1	6	5	14	-9	4	L D L W L
33	Nice		8	1	0	7	7	15	-8	3	L L L W L
34	Utrecht		8	0	1	7	5	15	-10	1	D L L L L
35	Malmo FF		8	0	1	7	4	15	-11	1	L L L L L
36	Maccabi Tel Aviv		8	0	1	7	2	22	-20	1	L L L L L

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Predict the score

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CatBoost Prediction

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Qualification Prediction Based on 5000 simulations

Nottingham Forest

100.0%

FC Midtjylland

0.0%

Match Type: Two-leg tie

First leg: Nottingham Forest 0-1 FC Midtjylland

Current aggregate: 2-2

Method: Monte Carlo (Dixon-Coles + Elo fallback, elo-weighted ET/PEN)

How was this calculated?

We simulate this knockout matchup using scoreline probabilities from Dixon-Coles where available, with an Elo fallback when needed. For two-leg ties we aggregate both legs and count who advances; for single-match knockouts and aggregate-level ties we resolve the shootout step with an elo-weighted draw rather than a 50/50 flip.

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

45.0%

Home Win

27.9%

Draw

27.1%

Away Win

Expected Goals

Nottingham Forest 1.52

FC Midtjylland 1.13

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

Nottingham Forest

FC Midtjylland

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Qualification %

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)