FC Midtjylland vs Nottingham Forest

PEN

Europa League

Nottingham Forest

19 Mar 2026

18:45

MCH Arena

First Leg Second Leg

Aggregate 2 - 2

Score Summary

FC Midtjylland

1 2

PEN HT 0–1

Nottingham Forest

M. Erlic 69'

40' N. Dominguez
52' R. Yates

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

63% Win

FC Midtjylland 1567 1555 ▼ -13

37% Win

Nottingham Forest 1471 1484 ▲ 13

xPi Expected win probability

42% Win

FC Midtjylland 0.05 -0.03 ▼ -0.08

36% Win

Nottingham Forest 0.24 0.22 ▼ -0.02

Top Performers

Top Rated

Elías Ólafsson

FC Midtjylland

9.2

9.2 rating · 120 min

Most Clinical

Martin Erlić

FC Midtjylland

7.2

1 goals

Best Creator

Nikola Milenković

Nottingham Forest

7.7

2 key passes · 1 assists

Defensive Leader

Martin Erlić

FC Midtjylland

7.2

4 tackles · 3 interceptions

Match Momentum

FC Midtjylland 27% Nottingham Forest 73%

Key Stats Snapshot

52 Possession 48

12 Shots 20

3 On Target 8

Form Context

FC Midtjylland

W L W D W

Nottingham Forest

D W W L W

Smart Insight

Nottingham Forest carried stronger momentum across the match profile.
Nottingham Forest produced more shot pressure than expected.
Elo movement favors Nottingham Forest after this result.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 41.5%

Draw 28.1%

Away Win 30.4%

Expected Goals 1.46 - 1.22

Qualification %

FC Midtjylland 0.0%

Nottingham Forest 100.0%

Based on 5000 simulations

Standings (Top 6)

View full standings

#	Team	Scr	Pts	Form
1	Lyon		21	L W W W W
2	Aston Villa		21	W W W W W
3	FC Midtjylland	1-2	19	W L W D W
4	Real Betis		17	W W W L W
5	FC Porto		17	D W W D W
6	SC Braga		17	L D W W D

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

52 Possession 48

3 Shots 8

12 Shots 20

1 Offsides 5

6 Shots Off Goal 9

3 Shots On Goal 8

12 Total Shots 20

52 Ball Possession 48

371 Passes Accurate 351

496 Total Passes 468

75% Passes % 75%

3 Blocked Shots 3

7 Goalkeeper Saves 2

22 Fouls 16

0 Red Cards 0

4 Yellow Cards 2

4 Corner Kicks 11

7 Shots Insidebox 13

5 Shots Outsidebox 7

0.70 expected_goals 2.07

0 goals_prevented 0

FC Midtjylland — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Adam Gabriel	0	2	-	1	6	3	2	1	False	30	13	D	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	13	-	16	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	-
👤 Aral Şimşir	0	8	-	3	12	6	-	2	False	75	58	M	6.6	True	0	0	-	-	-	21	2	28	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Darío Osorio	1	4	5	3	20	7	5	1	False	103	11	M	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	17	-	23	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	2
👤 Denil Castillo	0	3	1	2	23	15	2	5	False	120	21	M	6.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	19	-	29	-	-	-	-	2	-	1	3
👤 Edward Chilufya	0	-	-	-	4	1	1	-	False	17	14	F	5.6	True	0	0	-	-	-	1	-	2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Elías Ólafsson	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	False	120	16	G	9.2	False	0	2	7	-	-	32	-	44	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Gue-sung Cho	0	1	-	-	8	5	1	3	False	64	10	F	6.5	True	0	0	-	-	-	7	-	11	-	-	-	2	3	-	-	1
👤 Han-Beom Lee	0	-	-	-	2	2	-	-	False	75	3	D	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	40	1	51	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-
👤 Jonas Lössl	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	1	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Julius Emefile	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	38	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Junior Zé	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	39	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Júnior Brumado	1	3	1	3	17	7	4	1	False	56	74	F	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	9	-	12	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Mads Bech Sørensen	0	-	-	-	7	6	-	-	True	120	22	D	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	45	1	65	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	-
👤 Mark Nnamdi Ugboh	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	60	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Martin Erlić	1	-	-	-	11	7	-	1	False	120	6	D	7.2	False	0	0	-	1	-	46	-	51	-	-	-	1	1	1	3	4
👤 Mikael Uhre	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	17	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Mikel Gogorza	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	41	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Ousmane Diao	0	1	-	-	6	2	1	-	False	90	4	D	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	1	43	1	57	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Pedro Bravo	1	1	-	1	14	7	3	-	False	120	19	M	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	40	-	51	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	5
👤 Philip Billing	0	2	1	1	8	2	2	1	False	45	8	M	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	11	-	14	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 Valdemar Byskov	0	-	1	-	2	1	-	-	False	45	20	M	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	5	1	9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Victor Bak Jensen	0	3	1	-	9	3	1	-	False	120	55	D	5.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	22	1	33	-	-	-	-	-	-	3	2

Nottingham Forest — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Archie Whitehall	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	51	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Dan Ndoye	0	3	-	-	10	3	1	1	False	61	14	M	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	11	1	12	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	2
👤 Dilane Bakwa	0	4	3	3	12	5	1	-	False	75	29	M	7	False	0	0	-	-	-	18	1	21	-	-	-	-	2	-	-	2
👤 Elliot Anderson	1	2	-	-	12	8	1	3	False	45	8	M	7.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	24	1	32	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	3
👤 Ibrahim Sangaré	0	1	1	1	7	2	2	-	False	30	6	M	7	True	0	0	-	-	-	15	-	18	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Igor Jesus	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	19	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 James McAtee	0	1	2	1	8	5	-	2	False	75	24	F	7.3	False	1	0	-	-	-	23	2	26	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	2
👤 Jimmy Sinclair	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	61	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Justin Hanks	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	65	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Keehan Willows	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	67	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Lorenzo Lucca	0	2	-	1	12	6	2	1	False	120	20	F	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	1	24	1	27	-	-	-	1	2	-	1	1
👤 Matz Sels	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	26	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Morato	0	-	-	-	9	5	1	-	False	120	4	D	6.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	40	1	55	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1
👤 Morgan Gibbs-White	0	-	1	-	4	1	-	-	False	59	10	M	7.3	True	0	0	-	-	1	18	2	18	-	-	-	1	3	-	1	1
👤 Murillo	1	-	1	-	8	2	2	1	False	59	5	D	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	16	1	20	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1
👤 Neco Williams	0	-	1	-	10	4	1	2	False	59	3	D	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	7	-	11	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Nicolás Domínguez	0	-	3	-	15	9	2	1	False	90	16	M	7.7	False	0	0	-	1	1	32	1	48	-	-	-	2	3	1	2	3
👤 Nikola Milenković	0	-	-	-	11	9	1	4	False	61	31	D	7.7	False	1	0	-	-	-	16	2	22	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	2
👤 Ola Aina	0	-	-	-	5	2	1	1	False	45	34	D	7.2	True	0	0	-	-	-	13	1	16	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	1
👤 Omari Hutchinson	0	1	-	1	6	3	-	1	False	61	21	F	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	1	17	3	23	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Ryan Yates	0	2	2	-	15	5	1	3	True	120	22	M	7	False	0	0	-	1	1	37	1	45	-	-	-	1	4	1	-	1
👤 Stefan Ortega	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	120	27	G	6.3	False	0	1	2	-	-	15	-	41	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Zach Abbott	0	3	-	3	6	6	-	1	False	120	44	D	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	25	-	33	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1

League standings

View standings

Teams in this match: FC Midtjylland and Nottingham Forest

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lyon		8	7	0	1	18	5	13	21	L W W W W
2	Aston Villa		8	7	0	1	14	6	8	21	W W W W W
3	FC Midtjylland	1-2	8	6	1	1	18	8	10	19	W L W D W
4	Real Betis		8	5	2	1	13	7	6	17	W W W L W
5	FC Porto		8	5	2	1	13	7	6	17	D W W D W
6	SC Braga		8	5	2	1	11	5	6	17	L D W W D
7	SC Freiburg		8	5	2	1	10	4	6	17	W D W W L
8	AS Roma		8	5	1	2	13	6	7	16	W W W W D
9	Genk		8	5	1	2	11	7	4	16	W W L W W
10	Bologna		8	4	3	1	14	7	7	15	D W W D W
11	VfB Stuttgart		8	5	0	3	15	9	6	15	W W W L W
12	Ferencvarosi TC		8	4	3	1	12	11	1	15	W D W D L
13	Nottingham Forest	1-2	8	4	2	2	15	7	8	14	D W W L W
14	Plzen		8	3	5	0	8	3	5	14	D D D D W
15	FK Crvena Zvezda		8	4	2	2	7	6	1	14	W W W W D
16	Celta Vigo		8	4	1	3	15	11	4	13	W L L W D
17	PAOK		8	3	3	2	17	14	3	12	W D D W L
18	Lille		8	4	0	4	12	9	3	12	L W L L W
19	Fenerbahce		8	3	3	2	10	7	3	12	D D W L D
20	Panathinaikos		8	3	3	2	11	9	2	12	W W D D D
21	Celtic		8	3	2	3	13	15	-2	11	L W L D W
22	Ludogorets		8	3	1	4	12	15	-3	10	L W D L W
23	Dinamo Zagreb		8	3	1	4	12	16	-4	10	L L L W L
24	Brann		8	2	3	3	9	11	-2	9	D D L D L
25	BSC Young Boys		8	3	0	5	10	16	-6	9	L L W L L
26	Sturm Graz		8	2	1	5	5	11	-6	7	D L L L W
27	FCSB		8	2	1	5	9	16	-7	7	L L W L D
28	GO Ahead Eagles		8	2	1	5	6	14	-8	7	L L L L D
29	Feyenoord		8	2	0	6	11	15	-4	6	L L L W L
30	FC Basel 1893		8	2	0	6	9	13	-4	6	W L L L L
31	Red Bull Salzburg		8	2	0	6	10	15	-5	6	W L L W L
32	Rangers		8	1	1	6	5	14	-9	4	L D L W L
33	Nice		8	1	0	7	7	15	-8	3	L L L W L
34	Utrecht		8	0	1	7	5	15	-10	1	D L L L L
35	Malmo FF		8	0	1	7	4	15	-11	1	L L L L L
36	Maccabi Tel Aviv		8	0	1	7	2	22	-20	1	L L L L L

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Predict the score

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CatBoost Prediction

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Qualification Prediction Based on 5000 simulations

FC Midtjylland

0.0%

Nottingham Forest

100.0%

Match Type: Two-leg tie

First leg: Nottingham Forest 0-1 FC Midtjylland

Current aggregate: 2-2

Method: Monte Carlo (Dixon-Coles + Elo fallback, elo-weighted ET/PEN)

How was this calculated?

We simulate this knockout matchup using scoreline probabilities from Dixon-Coles where available, with an Elo fallback when needed. For two-leg ties we aggregate both legs and count who advances; for single-match knockouts and aggregate-level ties we resolve the shootout step with an elo-weighted draw rather than a 50/50 flip.

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

41.5%

Home Win

28.1%

Draw

30.4%

Away Win

Expected Goals

FC Midtjylland 1.46

Nottingham Forest 1.22

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

FC Midtjylland

Nottingham Forest

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Qualification %

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)