AS Roma vs Bologna - Football Platform

AET

Europa League

Bologna

19 Mar 2026

21:00

Stadio Olimpico

First Leg Second Leg

Aggregate 4 - 5

Score Summary

AS Roma

3 4

AET HT 1–2

Bologna

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

52% Win

AS Roma 1547 1537 ▼ -10

48% Win

Bologna 1534 1544 ▲ 10

xPi Expected win probability

51% Win

AS Roma 0.31 0.30 ▼ -0.01

33% Win

Bologna 0.07 -0.03 ▼ -0.10

Top Performers

Top Rated

Lorenzo Pellegrini

AS Roma

8.3

8.3 rating · 100 min

Most Clinical

Donyell Malen

AS Roma

7.2

1 goals

Best Creator

Jonathan Rowe

Bologna

8.0

4 key passes · 1 assists

Defensive Leader

Tommaso Pobega

Bologna

6.9

5 tackles · 3 interceptions

Match Momentum

AS Roma 44% Bologna 56%

Key Stats Snapshot

61 Possession 39

24 Shots 14

7 On Target 9

Form Context

AS Roma

W W W W D

Bologna

D W W D W

Smart Insight

Bologna carried stronger momentum across the match profile.
AS Roma generated the clearer shot volume edge.
Elo movement favors Bologna after this result.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 45.3%

Draw 27.7%

Away Win 27.0%

Expected Goals 1.54 - 1.14

Qualification %

AS Roma 0.0%

Bologna 100.0%

Based on 5000 simulations

Standings (Top 6)

View full standings

#	Team	Pts	Form
1	Lyon	21	L W W W W
2	Aston Villa	21	W W W W W
3	FC Midtjylland	19	W L W D W
4	Real Betis	17	W W W L W
5	FC Porto	17	D W W D W
6	SC Braga	17	L D W W D

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

61 Possession 39

7 Shots 9

24 Shots 14

3 Offsides 1

10 Shots Off Goal 3

7 Shots On Goal 9

24 Total Shots 14

61 Ball Possession 39

572 Passes Accurate 348

701 Total Passes 467

82% Passes % 75%

7 Blocked Shots 2

5 Goalkeeper Saves 4

21 Fouls 27

0 Red Cards 0

2 Yellow Cards 5

8 Corner Kicks 4

18 Shots Insidebox 10

6 Shots Outsidebox 4

2.19 expected_goals 1.75

-1 goals_prevented -1

AS Roma — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.scored	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Bryan Cristante	0	-	1	-	26	15	3	-	True	120	4	M	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	60	1	81	-	-	0	-	-	1	-	-	3
👤 Bryan Zaragoza	0	-	1	-	2	1	-	-	False	11	97	F	6.6	True	0	0	-	-	-	2	1	5	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Daniele Ghilardi	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	87	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Devyne Rensch	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	2	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Donyell Malen	0	7	-	3	13	8	-	5	False	120	14	F	7.2	False	0	0	-	1	-	14	1	16	-	-	1	-	2	4	-	-	-
👤 Evan Ndicka	0	-	-	-	13	10	2	1	False	120	5	D	6.6	False	0	0	-	1	-	83	-	98	-	-	0	-	1	1	-	3	3
👤 Gianluca Mancini	1	3	-	2	20	10	4	3	False	120	23	D	5.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	56	2	71	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	1	2
👤 Giorgio De Marzi	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	70	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jan Ziółkowski	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	24	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Konstantinos Tsimikas	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	12	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Lorenzo Pellegrini	0	1	-	-	13	7	2	4	False	100	7	M	8.3	True	1	0	-	1	-	43	3	51	-	-	0	-	3	6	-	1	2
👤 Manu Koné	0	-	-	-	2	1	-	-	False	20	17	M	6.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	19	1	20	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Mario Hermoso	0	1	1	1	19	11	2	3	False	120	22	D	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	77	1	86	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	2	3
👤 Mile Svilar	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	False	120	99	G	6.2	False	0	4	5	-	-	30	-	45	-	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Neil El Aynaoui	0	-	-	-	2	-	-	-	False	16	8	M	6.2	True	0	0	-	-	-	7	-	8	-	-	0	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Niccolò Pisilli	0	4	-	1	12	9	-	2	False	104	61	F	7.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	62	1	80	-	-	0	-	-	1	-	1	4
👤 Pierluigi Gollini	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	95	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Robinio Vaz	0	2	-	-	10	4	2	2	False	63	78	F	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	2	6	-	10	-	-	0	1	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Stephan El Shaarawy	0	-	-	-	8	3	3	2	False	57	92	F	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	24	2	27	1	-	0	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 Wesley	0	3	1	1	12	7	1	3	False	120	43	M	7	False	0	0	-	-	1	52	2	55	-	-	0	-	-	1	-	1	3
👤 Zeki Çelik	1	2	3	2	10	5	2	-	False	109	19	M	7	False	0	0	-	-	-	37	2	48	-	-	0	-	1	1	2	-	3

Bologna — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.scored	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Benjamín Domínguez	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	30	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Charalampos Lykogiannis	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	22	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Federico Bernardeschi	0	-	-	-	4	2	1	1	False	79	10	F	7.5	False	0	0	-	1	-	12	-	18	-	-	1	-	2	2	-	1	1
👤 Federico Ravaglia	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	120	13	G	6.3	False	0	3	4	-	-	30	-	54	-	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jens Odgaard	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	21	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jhon Lucumí	1	1	1	-	17	13	2	3	False	120	26	D	7.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	45	-	56	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	2	3
👤 Jonathan Rowe	0	3	-	1	14	4	2	1	False	73	11	F	8	False	1	0	-	1	-	5	4	6	-	-	0	-	1	1	-	2	2
👤 João Mário	0	5	2	3	15	6	1	1	False	120	17	D	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	35	1	47	-	-	0	-	1	1	-	3	1
👤 Lewis Ferguson	1	-	1	-	25	12	4	6	True	120	19	M	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	47	-	51	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	2	3
👤 Martin Vitík	1	-	-	-	8	4	2	-	False	73	41	D	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	12	-	17	-	-	0	-	-	-	2	1	2
👤 Massimo Pessina	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	25	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Matteo Franceschelli	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	82	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Nadir Zortea	1	1	1	-	13	4	5	1	False	120	20	D	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	21	-	27	-	-	0	1	-	-	-	1	2
👤 Nicolò Cambiaghi	0	-	-	-	5	3	1	3	False	47	28	F	7.7	True	0	0	-	1	-	10	-	12	-	-	0	-	1	1	-	3	-
👤 Nicolò Casale	0	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	False	47	16	D	6.5	True	0	0	-	-	-	12	-	18	-	-	0	-	-	-	1	-	-
👤 Nikola Moro	0	1	-	1	4	3	1	-	False	30	6	M	7.2	True	0	0	-	-	-	16	-	21	-	-	0	-	-	1	-	1	-
👤 Remo Freuler	1	1	1	-	13	3	4	-	False	114	8	M	5.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	44	-	57	1	-	0	-	1	2	3	1	2
👤 Riccardo Orsolini	0	3	1	1	10	4	-	1	False	41	7	F	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	11	-	15	-	-	0	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Santiago Castro	0	1	2	1	12	1	2	-	False	73	9	F	7.2	False	1	0	-	1	-	13	1	16	-	-	0	-	2	2	-	-	-
👤 Simon Sohm	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	23	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Thijs Dallinga	0	-	1	-	10	5	1	2	False	47	24	F	6.5	True	1	0	-	-	1	13	1	18	-	-	0	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Tommaso Pobega	0	-	-	-	11	7	1	1	False	90	4	M	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	22	1	32	-	-	0	-	-	-	1	3	5
👤 Torbjørn Heggem	0	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	False	9	14	D	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-

League standings

View standings

Teams in this match: AS Roma and Bologna

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lyon		8	7	0	1	18	5	13	21	L W W W W
2	Aston Villa		8	7	0	1	14	6	8	21	W W W W W
3	FC Midtjylland		8	6	1	1	18	8	10	19	W L W D W
4	Real Betis		8	5	2	1	13	7	6	17	W W W L W
5	FC Porto		8	5	2	1	13	7	6	17	D W W D W
6	SC Braga		8	5	2	1	11	5	6	17	L D W W D
7	SC Freiburg		8	5	2	1	10	4	6	17	W D W W L
8	AS Roma	3-4	8	5	1	2	13	6	7	16	W W W W D
9	Genk		8	5	1	2	11	7	4	16	W W L W W
10	Bologna	3-4	8	4	3	1	14	7	7	15	D W W D W
11	VfB Stuttgart		8	5	0	3	15	9	6	15	W W W L W
12	Ferencvarosi TC		8	4	3	1	12	11	1	15	W D W D L
13	Nottingham Forest		8	4	2	2	15	7	8	14	D W W L W
14	Plzen		8	3	5	0	8	3	5	14	D D D D W
15	FK Crvena Zvezda		8	4	2	2	7	6	1	14	W W W W D
16	Celta Vigo		8	4	1	3	15	11	4	13	W L L W D
17	PAOK		8	3	3	2	17	14	3	12	W D D W L
18	Lille		8	4	0	4	12	9	3	12	L W L L W
19	Fenerbahce		8	3	3	2	10	7	3	12	D D W L D
20	Panathinaikos		8	3	3	2	11	9	2	12	W W D D D
21	Celtic		8	3	2	3	13	15	-2	11	L W L D W
22	Ludogorets		8	3	1	4	12	15	-3	10	L W D L W
23	Dinamo Zagreb		8	3	1	4	12	16	-4	10	L L L W L
24	Brann		8	2	3	3	9	11	-2	9	D D L D L
25	BSC Young Boys		8	3	0	5	10	16	-6	9	L L W L L
26	Sturm Graz		8	2	1	5	5	11	-6	7	D L L L W
27	FCSB		8	2	1	5	9	16	-7	7	L L W L D
28	GO Ahead Eagles		8	2	1	5	6	14	-8	7	L L L L D
29	Feyenoord		8	2	0	6	11	15	-4	6	L L L W L
30	FC Basel 1893		8	2	0	6	9	13	-4	6	W L L L L
31	Red Bull Salzburg		8	2	0	6	10	15	-5	6	W L L W L
32	Rangers		8	1	1	6	5	14	-9	4	L D L W L
33	Nice		8	1	0	7	7	15	-8	3	L L L W L
34	Utrecht		8	0	1	7	5	15	-10	1	D L L L L
35	Malmo FF		8	0	1	7	4	15	-11	1	L L L L L
36	Maccabi Tel Aviv		8	0	1	7	2	22	-20	1	L L L L L

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Predict the score

Loading API predictions…

CatBoost Prediction

Model not available yet. Run train_catboost to train a model.

Qualification Prediction Based on 5000 simulations

AS Roma

0.0%

Bologna

100.0%

Match Type: Two-leg tie

First leg: Bologna 1-1 AS Roma

Current aggregate: 4-5

Method: Monte Carlo (Dixon-Coles + Elo fallback, elo-weighted ET/PEN)

How was this calculated?

We simulate this knockout matchup using scoreline probabilities from Dixon-Coles where available, with an Elo fallback when needed. For two-leg ties we aggregate both legs and count who advances; for single-match knockouts and aggregate-level ties we resolve the shootout step with an elo-weighted draw rather than a 50/50 flip.

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

45.3%

Home Win

27.7%

Draw

27.0%

Away Win

Expected Goals

AS Roma 1.54

Bologna 1.14

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

AS Roma

Bologna

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Qualification %

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)