Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa

Premier League

Nottingham Forest

HT: 1–1

Aston Villa

23' Murillo
38' Neco Williams

12 Apr 2026

15:00

City Ground

Stadium

The City Ground

Nottingham, Nottinghamshire, England

Capacity: 30576 Surface: grass Address: Pavilion Road

Score Summary

Nottingham Forest

1 1

FT HT 1–1

Aston Villa

Neco Williams 38'

23' Murillo

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

36% Win

Nottingham Forest 1495 1498 ▲ 3

64% Win

Aston Villa 1594 1591 ▼ -3

xPi Expected win probability

44% Win

Nottingham Forest 0.23 0.22 ▼ 0.00

36% Win

Aston Villa 0.19 0.24 ▲ 0.05

Top Performers

Top Rated

Neco Williams

Nottingham Forest

8.2

8.2 rating · 91 min

Most Clinical

Neco Williams

Nottingham Forest

8.2

1 goals

Best Creator

Callum Hudson-Odoi

Nottingham Forest

7.5

5 key passes · 1 assists

Defensive Leader

Ola Aina

Nottingham Forest

7.6

3 tackles · 2 interceptions

Match Momentum

Nottingham Forest 44% Aston Villa 56%

Key Stats Snapshot

41 Possession 59

15 Shots 12

4 On Target 5

Form Context

Nottingham Forest

D W D W W

Aston Villa

L W D W L

Smart Insight

Aston Villa carried stronger momentum across the match profile.
Nottingham Forest generated the clearer shot volume edge.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 42.6%

Draw 27.5%

Away Win 29.9%

Expected Goals 1.53 - 1.25

Standings (Top 6)

Full table

#	Team	Scr	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal		73	W W L L W
2	Manchester City		70	D D W W W
3	Manchester United		61	W D L W W
4	Liverpool		58	D L W W W
5	Aston Villa	1-1	58	L W D W L
6	Brighton		50	W W W D W

Promotion - Champions League (League phase)

Promotion - Europa League (League phase)

Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs)

Relegation - Championship

41 Possession 59

4 Shots 5

15 Shots 12

1 Offsides 2

6 Shots Off Goal 7

4 Shots On Goal 5

15 Total Shots 12

41 Ball Possession 59

278 Passes Accurate 442

336 Total Passes 501

83% Passes % 88%

5 Blocked Shots 1

5 Goalkeeper Saves 4

15 Fouls 10

0 Red Cards 0

2 Yellow Cards 2

7 Corner Kicks 3

9 Shots Insidebox 8

6 Shots Outsidebox 4

1.15 expected_goals 1.02

0 goals_prevented 0

Nottingham Forest — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Callum Hudson-Odoi	0	-	-	-	2	1	1	-	False	91	7	M	7.5	False	1	0	-	-	-	20	5	22	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Chris Wood	0	1	-	-	2	-	-	-	False	26	11	F	6.2	True	-	0	-	-	-	2	-	2	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Dan Ndoye	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	2	14	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Dilane Bakwa	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	29	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Elliot Anderson	0	1	3	1	11	4	2	1	False	91	8	M	6.9	False	-	0	-	-	-	40	-	43	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	1
👤 Ibrahim Sangaré	0	1	2	-	10	5	1	-	False	91	6	M	6.6	False	-	0	-	-	-	26	2	32	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	4
👤 Igor Jesus	0	1	1	-	12	4	1	1	False	89	19	F	6.3	False	-	0	-	-	-	7	1	13	-	-	-	-	2	-	1	-
👤 James McAtee	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	24	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Luca Netz	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	25	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Matz Sels	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	91	26	G	7.3	False	-	1	5	-	-	17	-	25	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Morato	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	4	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Morgan Gibbs-White	0	3	1	1	9	2	1	1	True	84	10	M	6.3	False	-	0	-	-	-	19	-	22	-	-	-	1	2	-	-	-
👤 Murillo	1	-	1	-	6	1	4	-	False	91	5	D	5.6	False	-	0	-	-	-	37	-	44	-	-	-	-	1	-	2	-
👤 Neco Williams	0	1	2	-	10	6	1	1	False	91	3	D	8.2	False	-	0	-	1	1	19	2	22	-	-	-	3	3	-	1	3
👤 Nicolás Domínguez	0	-	-	-	1	-	1	-	False	7	16	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Nikola Milenković	0	-	-	-	6	5	1	-	False	91	31	D	6.9	False	-	0	-	-	-	33	-	35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	3
👤 Ola Aina	0	1	-	1	8	7	-	3	False	89	34	D	7.6	False	-	0	-	-	-	31	2	39	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	3
👤 Omari Hutchinson	1	2	-	2	8	4	2	-	False	65	21	M	6.3	False	-	0	-	-	-	15	-	21	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 Ryan Yates	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	2	22	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Stefan Ortega	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	27	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Aston Villa — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Amadou Onana	0	1	1	1	11	7	2	2	False	91	24	M	7.2	False	-	0	-	-	-	47	1	51	-	-	-	1	1	1	2	2
👤 Andrés García	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	16	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Douglas Luiz	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	False	14	21	M	6.7	True	-	0	-	-	-	9	-	10	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Emiliano Buendía	0	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	False	13	10	M	6.3	True	-	0	-	-	-	6	2	6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Ezri Konsa	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	4	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Ian Maatsen	0	1	-	1	3	2	1	1	False	13	22	D	6.9	True	-	0	-	-	-	4	-	4	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 James Wright	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	64	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 John McGinn	1	4	-	4	10	6	1	2	True	91	7	M	7.3	False	-	0	-	-	-	32	1	35	-	-	-	1	2	-	1	-
👤 Lamare Bogarde	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	26	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Leon Bailey	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	31	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Lucas Digne	0	-	-	-	10	6	1	-	False	78	12	D	6.7	False	-	0	-	-	-	32	2	37	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	4
👤 Marco Bizot	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	91	40	G	6.3	False	-	1	4	-	-	26	-	34	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Matty Cash	1	-	-	-	4	2	1	1	False	91	2	D	6.5	False	-	0	-	-	1	37	-	42	-	-	-	1	1	1	2	-
👤 Morgan Rogers	0	4	2	1	11	4	1	1	False	78	27	M	6.2	False	-	0	-	-	-	28	1	33	-	-	-	-	2	-	1	2
👤 Ollie Watkins	0	2	1	1	7	2	1	1	False	87	11	F	6	False	-	0	-	-	1	10	1	15	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Pau Torres	0	-	-	-	7	3	1	1	False	91	14	D	6.9	False	-	0	-	-	-	69	-	74	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1
👤 Ross Barkley	0	3	-	2	8	6	-	3	False	77	6	M	7.2	False	-	0	-	-	-	23	-	25	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	1
👤 Tammy Abraham	0	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	False	4	18	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Victor Lindelöf	0	-	-	-	2	2	-	-	False	91	3	D	6.3	False	-	0	-	-	-	57	-	60	-	-	-	-	2	-	-	1
👤 Youri Tielemans	0	1	1	-	9	6	-	2	False	91	8	M	7.5	False	-	0	-	-	-	35	2	42	-	-	-	-	1	2	1	3

League standings

Full table

Teams in this match: Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal		34	22	7	5	64	26	38	73	W W L L W
2	Manchester City		33	21	7	5	66	29	37	70	D D W W W
3	Manchester United		34	17	10	7	60	46	14	61	W D L W W
4	Liverpool		34	17	7	10	57	44	13	58	D L W W W
5	Aston Villa	1-1	34	17	7	10	47	42	5	58	L W D W L
6	Brighton		34	13	11	10	48	39	9	50	W W W D W
7	Bournemouth		34	11	16	7	52	52	0	49	D D W W D
8	Chelsea		34	13	9	12	53	45	8	48	L L L L L
9	Brentford		34	13	9	12	49	46	3	48	D D D D L
10	Fulham		34	14	6	14	44	46	-2	48	D W L D W
11	Everton		34	13	8	13	41	41	0	47	L W D L L
12	Sunderland		34	12	10	12	36	45	-9	46	L W W L L
13	Crystal Palace		33	11	10	12	36	39	-3	43	W D W D L
14	Newcastle		34	12	6	16	46	50	-4	42	W L L L L
15	Leeds		34	9	13	12	44	51	-7	40	D D W W D
16	Nottingham Forest	1-1	34	10	9	15	41	45	-4	39	D W D W W
17	West Ham		34	9	9	16	42	58	-16	36	D L W D W
18	Tottenham		34	8	10	16	43	53	-10	34	D L L D W
19	Burnley		34	4	8	22	34	68	-34	20	D L L L L
20	Wolves		34	3	8	23	24	62	-38	17	W D L L L

Promotion - Champions League (League phase)

Promotion - Europa League (League phase)

Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs)

Relegation - Championship

Our prediction i

Full predictions

Teams in this match: Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa

#	Team	MP	Pred Pts	Pred #
1	Arsenal	34	80	1
2	Manchester City	33	79	2
3	Manchester United	34	67	3
4	Liverpool	34	65	4
5	Aston Villa	34	63	5
6	Brighton	34	55	8
7	Bournemouth	34	54	9
8	Chelsea	34	55	8
9	Brentford	34	53	9
10	Fulham	34	53	10
11	Everton	34	52	11
12	Sunderland	34	50	12
13	Crystal Palace	33	48	13
14	Newcastle	34	49	13
15	Leeds	34	46	15
16	Nottingham Forest	34	44	15
17	West Ham	34	40	17
18	Tottenham	34	39	17
19	Burnley	34	24	19
20	Wolves	34	22	20

Promotion - Champions League (League phase)

Promotion - Europa League (League phase)

Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs)

Relegation - Championship

Predict the score

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CatBoost Prediction

Model not available yet. Run train_catboost to train a model.

Our predictions

xpi

Home Win 44.7%

Draw 19.8%

Away Win 35.5%

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

42.6%

Home Win

27.5%

Draw

29.9%

Away Win

Expected Goals

Nottingham Forest 1.53

Aston Villa 1.25

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

Nottingham Forest

Aston Villa

The City Ground

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

xpi

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)