SC Paderborn 07 vs Holstein Kiel

2. Bundesliga

SC Paderborn 07

HT: 1–0

Holstein Kiel

02 Aug 2025

13:00

Home Deluxe Arena

Stadium

Home Deluxe Arena

Paderborn, Germany

Capacity: 15306 Surface: grass Address: Wilfried-Finke-Allee 1

Score Summary

SC Paderborn 07

2 1

FT HT 1–0

Holstein Kiel

M. Hoffmeier 29'
F. Bilbija 90'

84' A. Gigovic

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

50% Win

SC Paderborn 07 1500 1505 ▲ 5

50% Win

Holstein Kiel 1500 1495 ▼ -5

xPi Expected win probability

44% Win

SC Paderborn 07 0.00 0.46 ▲ 0.46

36% Win

Holstein Kiel 0.00 -0.27 ▼ -0.27

Top Performers

Top Rated

Marcel Hoffmeier

SC Paderborn 07

8.9

8.9 rating · 90 min

Most Clinical

Marcel Hoffmeier

SC Paderborn 07

8.9

1 goals

Best Creator

Laurin Curda

SC Paderborn 07

6.6

2 key passes · 1 assists

Defensive Leader

Ivan Nekić

Holstein Kiel

7.3

3 tackles · 2 interceptions

Match Momentum

SC Paderborn 07 60% Holstein Kiel 40%

Key Stats Snapshot

47 Possession 53

9 Shots 7

3 On Target 2

Form Context

SC Paderborn 07

W W W D L

Holstein Kiel

W D W W W

Smart Insight

SC Paderborn 07 controlled momentum for most phases of play.
SC Paderborn 07 generated the clearer shot volume edge.
Elo movement favors SC Paderborn 07 after this result.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 36.5%

Draw 27.1%

Away Win 36.5%

Expected Goals 1.45 - 1.45

Standings (Top 6)

Full table

#	Team	Scr	Pts	Form
1	FC Schalke 04		64	D W W W W
2	SC Paderborn 07	2-1	58	W W W D L
3	Hannover 96		57	W D W D W
4	SV Elversberg		56	W D L W D
5	SV Darmstadt 98		51	D L L L D
6	Hertha BSC		48	W W L D L

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2. Bundesliga (Relegation)

47 Possession 53

3 Shots 2

9 Shots 7

3 Offsides 1

2 Shots Off Goal 4

3 Shots On Goal 2

9 Total Shots 7

47 Ball Possession 53

313 Passes Accurate 384

413 Total Passes 478

76% Passes % 80%

4 Blocked Shots 1

1 Goalkeeper Saves 1

13 Fouls 12

0 Red Cards 0

1 Yellow Cards 3

3 Corner Kicks 0

4 Shots Insidebox 2

5 Shots Outsidebox 5

1.01 expected_goals 0.58

N/A goals_prevented N/A

SC Paderborn 07 — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Adriano Grimaldi	0	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	False	13	39	F	6.5	True	0	0	-	-	-	1	-	3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Calvin Brackelmann	0	-	-	-	9	6	-	1	False	90	4	D	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	32	-	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	2
👤 Dennis Seimen	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	41	G	6.9	False	0	1	1	-	-	35	-	40	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Felix Götze	0	-	-	-	2	1	-	-	False	17	20	D	6.2	True	0	0	-	-	-	8	-	9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Filip Bilbija	0	4	-	1	12	5	3	2	False	90	7	F	7.7	False	0	0	-	1	1	11	1	19	-	-	-	1	2	-	-	2
👤 Kevin Krumme	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	42	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Laurin Curda	1	2	2	2	12	4	3	-	False	90	17	M	6.6	False	1	0	-	-	-	18	2	29	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	-
👤 Lucas Copado	0	1	2	-	8	4	-	3	False	78	28	F	7.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	10	-	14	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1
👤 Luis Engelns	0	-	-	-	11	7	2	4	False	84	6	M	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	32	-	37	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Marcel Hoffmeier	0	1	-	1	10	9	-	2	False	90	33	D	8.9	False	0	0	-	1	-	37	2	50	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	3
👤 Marco Wörner	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	18	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Markus Schubert	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	1	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Mattes Hansen	0	-	-	-	2	-	1	-	False	22	22	M	6.2	True	0	0	-	-	-	9	-	12	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Mika Baur	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	14	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Nick Bätzner	0	-	1	-	5	2	-	-	False	78	9	F	6.6	False	0	0	-	-	2	10	-	15	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Raphael Obermair	0	2	-	-	7	2	1	-	True	90	23	M	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	30	1	41	-	-	-	-	-	-	3	1
👤 Santiago Castaneda	0	-	-	-	5	1	1	-	False	69	5	M	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	29	-	34	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	1
👤 Sebastian Klaas	0	1	1	1	2	1	-	-	False	13	26	M	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	7	-	12	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Stefano Marino	0	2	-	-	6	-	1	-	False	17	30	F	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Tjark Lasse Scheller	0	2	-	2	8	5	1	-	False	84	25	D	7.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	44	-	49	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	2

Holstein Kiel — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Alexander Bernhardsson	0	1	-	-	7	2	1	-	False	90	11	F	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	1	18	1	28	-	-	-	-	2	-	-	2
👤 Armin Gigović	0	1	2	1	10	4	-	1	False	87	37	F	8	False	0	0	-	1	-	17	-	24	-	-	-	1	2	-	-	1
👤 David Zec	1	-	1	-	4	3	-	-	False	90	26	D	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	72	1	78	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 Finn Porath	0	-	-	-	4	4	-	2	False	35	8	M	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	4	-	11	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1
👤 Ivan Nekić	1	2	-	2	12	9	2	2	False	90	13	D	7.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	36	-	44	-	-	-	-	-	2	2	3
👤 John Tolkin	0	3	-	3	12	9	2	2	False	90	47	M	7	False	0	0	-	-	-	39	-	50	-	-	-	-	1	-	3	-
👤 Jonas Krumrey	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	False	90	21	G	7	False	0	2	1	-	-	30	-	35	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jonas Therkelsen	0	2	2	-	13	3	1	2	False	35	10	M	6.2	True	0	0	-	-	-	8	-	9	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1
👤 Kasper Davidsen	0	1	-	-	6	2	2	-	False	75	15	M	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	27	-	32	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Lasse Rosenboom	0	1	-	-	4	2	-	-	False	56	23	M	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	17	-	25	-	-	-	1	1	1	1	-
👤 Magnus Knudsen	0	1	-	-	3	2	-	-	False	14	24	M	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	8	-	8	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	2
👤 Marcus Müller	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	25	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Marko Ivezić	0	-	-	-	5	3	1	-	False	90	6	D	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	61	-	70	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Max Geschwill	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	14	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Niklas Niehoff	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	29	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Phil Harres	0	-	-	-	3	2	1	-	False	35	19	F	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	3	-	8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Robert Wagner	1	-	1	-	2	1	-	-	False	16	39	M	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	13	-	13	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	-
👤 Stefan Schwab	0	1	-	-	7	3	2	1	False	56	22	M	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	23	1	29	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Steven Skrzybski	0	-	1	-	7	3	-	1	True	56	7	F	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	8	-	14	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Timon Weiner	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	1	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

League standings

Full table

Teams in this match: SC Paderborn 07 and Holstein Kiel

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Schalke 04		31	19	7	5	48	28	20	64	D W W W W
2	SC Paderborn 07	2-1	31	17	7	7	54	38	16	58	W W W D L
3	Hannover 96		31	16	9	6	53	37	16	57	W D W D W
4	SV Elversberg		31	16	8	7	55	35	20	56	W D L W D
5	SV Darmstadt 98		31	13	12	6	55	40	15	51	D L L L D
6	Hertha BSC		31	13	9	9	44	36	8	48	W W L D L
7	1. FC Kaiserslautern		31	14	4	13	49	46	3	46	L W W L L
8	1. FC Nürnberg		31	11	8	12	40	41	-1	41	W D L D W
9	Karlsruher SC		31	11	7	13	48	59	-11	40	W L W L L
10	VfL Bochum		31	10	9	12	45	44	1	39	L L W L W
11	Holstein Kiel	2-1	31	10	8	13	40	43	-3	38	W D W W W
12	Dynamo Dresden		31	9	8	14	50	50	0	35	L L W W L
13	Arminia Bielefeld		31	9	8	14	46	47	-1	35	L W L D W
14	Eintracht Braunschweig		31	9	7	15	34	50	-16	34	L D L D W
15	Fortuna Düsseldorf		31	10	4	17	30	48	-18	34	L L L L W
16	1. FC Magdeburg		31	10	3	18	48	56	-8	33	W W L W L
17	SpVgg Greuther Fürth		31	9	6	16	44	65	-21	33	L L D W L
18	Preußen Münster		31	6	10	15	34	54	-20	28	L D D L L

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Our prediction i

Full predictions

Teams in this match: SC Paderborn 07 and Holstein Kiel

#	Team	MP	Pred Pts	Pred #
1	FC Schalke 04	31	69	1
2	SC Paderborn 07	31	62	3
3	Hannover 96	31	61	3
4	SV Elversberg	31	60	3
5	SV Darmstadt 98	31	55	5
6	Hertha BSC	31	51	6
7	1. FC Kaiserslautern	31	50	7
8	1. FC Nürnberg	31	45	9
9	Karlsruher SC	31	43	10
10	VfL Bochum	31	43	10
11	Holstein Kiel	31	41	11
12	Dynamo Dresden	31	39	13
13	Arminia Bielefeld	31	40	12
14	Eintracht Braunschweig	31	38	15
15	Fortuna Düsseldorf	31	38	15
16	1. FC Magdeburg	31	38	14
17	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	31	36	16
18	Preußen Münster	31	31	18

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Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

36.5%

Home Win

27.1%

Draw

36.5%

Away Win

Expected Goals

SC Paderborn 07 1.45

Holstein Kiel 1.45

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

SC Paderborn 07

Holstein Kiel

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Prediction (dixon_coles)

Missing Players

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