SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel

2. Bundesliga

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

HT: 0–1

Holstein Kiel

31' J. Therkelsen
90' J. Tolkin

24 Aug 2025

13:30

Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer

Stadium

Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer

Fürth, Germany

Capacity: 18000 Surface: grass Address: Laubenweg 60

Score Summary

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

0 2

FT HT 0–1

Holstein Kiel

31' J. Therkelsen
90' J. Tolkin

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

51% Win

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1505 1500 ▼ -5

49% Win

Holstein Kiel 1495 1500 ▲ 5

xPi Expected win probability

43% Win

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.00 -0.26 ▼ -0.26

36% Win

Holstein Kiel 0.02 -0.27 ▼ -0.29

Top Performers

Top Rated

John Tolkin

Holstein Kiel

8.3

8.3 rating · 90 min

Most Clinical

John Tolkin

Holstein Kiel

8.3

1 goals

Best Creator

Branimir Hrgota

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

7.3

3 key passes · 0 assists

Defensive Leader

Maximilian Dietz

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

6.9

2 tackles · 3 interceptions

Match Momentum

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 33% Holstein Kiel 67%

Key Stats Snapshot

55 Possession 45

15 Shots 17

2 On Target 4

Form Context

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

L L D W L

Holstein Kiel

W D W W W

Smart Insight

Holstein Kiel carried stronger momentum across the match profile.
Elo movement favors Holstein Kiel after this result.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 38.8%

Draw 27.0%

Away Win 34.1%

Expected Goals 1.50 - 1.40

Standings (Top 6)

Full table

#	Team	Pts	Form
1	FC Schalke 04	64	D W W W W
2	SC Paderborn 07	58	W W W D L
3	Hannover 96	57	W D W D W
4	SV Elversberg	56	W D L W D
5	SV Darmstadt 98	51	D L L L D
6	Hertha BSC	48	W W L D L

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55 Possession 45

2 Shots 4

15 Shots 17

1 Offsides 4

9 Shots Off Goal 9

2 Shots On Goal 4

15 Total Shots 17

55 Ball Possession 45

353 Passes Accurate 278

437 Total Passes 361

81% Passes % 77%

4 Blocked Shots 4

2 Goalkeeper Saves 2

13 Fouls 18

0 Red Cards 0

3 Yellow Cards 8

6 Corner Kicks 3

7 Shots Insidebox 13

8 Shots Outsidebox 4

N/A expected_goals N/A

N/A goals_prevented N/A

SpVgg Greuther Fürth — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Aaron Keller	0	1	2	1	7	2	1	1	False	45	16	F	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	13	-	18	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Branimir Hrgota	1	4	1	3	11	5	2	2	True	90	10	F	7.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	18	3	28	-	-	-	-	2	-	-	-
👤 Brynjar Ingi Bjarnason	0	-	-	-	4	2	1	-	False	45	25	D	7	True	0	0	-	-	-	28	-	34	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	-
👤 Felix Higl	0	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	False	15	18	F	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	2	-	2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Felix Klaus	0	1	2	1	8	3	-	1	False	90	30	M	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	22	-	28	-	-	-	-	3	-	-	1
👤 Gian-Luca Itter	0	3	1	1	13	6	2	4	False	90	27	M	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	44	-	58	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	-
👤 Jannik Dehm	1	-	-	-	3	2	1	1	False	76	23	M	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	26	1	33	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
👤 Jomaine Consbruch	0	-	-	-	2	2	-	1	False	15	14	M	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	7	1	9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Juan Cabrera	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	22	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Julian Green	0	4	2	2	11	6	-	3	False	76	37	M	6.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	24	1	26	-	-	-	1	2	-	2	1
👤 Mathias Olesen	0	-	-	-	5	1	3	1	False	45	8	M	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	8	-	11	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Maximilian Dietz	0	-	-	-	2	2	-	-	False	90	33	D	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	65	-	69	-	-	-	-	-	1	3	2
👤 Nils-Jonathan Körber	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	1	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Noah König	0	1	-	1	8	4	-	-	False	89	17	D	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	33	-	37	-	-	-	-	1	-	2	2
👤 Noel Futkeu	0	1	-	1	9	4	2	2	False	90	9	F	6.6	False	0	0	-	-	1	7	1	7	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Omar Sillah	0	-	-	-	2	2	-	-	False	2	42	F	-	True	0	0	-	-	-	1	-	3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Pelle Boevink	1	-	1	-	3	2	-	1	False	90	26	G	7.2	False	0	2	2	-	-	28	-	42	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Philipp Ziereis	0	1	1	-	11	4	1	1	False	45	4	D	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	27	1	32	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	3
👤 Reno Münz	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	5	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Sacha Banse	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	6	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Holstein Kiel — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Adrián Kaprálik	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	20	F	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Alexander Bernhardsson	1	5	-	3	17	11	3	3	False	74	11	M	7.6	False	0	-	-	-	13	2	19	-	-	-	-	1	-	2	3
👤 Carl Johansson	0	-	1	-	10	7	1	1	False	90	5	D	7.7	False	0	-	-	1	31	-	36	-	-	-	-	1	3	2	2
👤 David Zec	1	-	1	-	6	2	3	-	False	90	26	D	6.5	False	0	-	-	-	27	-	32	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	2
👤 Ivan Nekić	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	13	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 John Tolkin	0	1	-	1	1	1	-	-	False	90	47	M	8.3	False	0	-	1	-	15	2	21	-	-	-	1	1	-	2	-
👤 Jonas Krumrey	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	False	90	21	G	7.3	False	1	2	-	-	21	1	28	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jonas Therkelsen	0	3	-	2	10	6	-	3	False	84	10	F	8.2	False	0	-	1	-	24	-	31	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Kasper Davidsen	1	-	-	-	4	3	1	1	False	17	15	M	6.9	True	0	-	-	-	2	-	3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Lasse Rosenboom	1	1	1	1	3	2	-	-	False	27	23	D	6.9	True	0	-	-	-	-	-	3	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 Magnus Knudsen	1	2	2	2	11	5	4	1	False	74	24	M	6.6	False	0	-	-	1	30	2	38	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	2
👤 Marco Komenda	1	-	-	-	7	3	1	2	False	90	3	D	6.9	False	0	-	-	-	40	-	47	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-
👤 Marcus Müller	1	-	-	-	3	1	2	-	False	12	25	F	6.2	True	0	-	-	-	1	-	2	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Marko Ivezić	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	6	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Niklas Niehoff	0	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	False	17	29	M	6.6	True	0	-	-	1	1	1	3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Phil Harres	0	3	-	1	9	6	-	-	False	84	19	F	7.2	False	1	-	-	1	13	2	19	-	-	-	-	2	-	-	-
👤 Robert Wagner	0	1	3	-	11	3	3	-	False	90	39	M	6.6	False	0	-	-	-	46	3	56	-	-	-	-	2	-	-	1
👤 Stefan Schwab	1	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	False	12	22	M	6.6	True	0	-	-	-	2	-	5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Steven Skrzybski	0	1	2	-	6	1	-	1	True	64	7	F	6.3	False	0	-	-	-	12	-	18	-	-	-	2	3	-	1	-
👤 Timon Weiner	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	1	G	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

League standings

Full table

Teams in this match: SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Schalke 04		31	19	7	5	48	28	20	64	D W W W W
2	SC Paderborn 07		31	17	7	7	54	38	16	58	W W W D L
3	Hannover 96		31	16	9	6	53	37	16	57	W D W D W
4	SV Elversberg		31	16	8	7	55	35	20	56	W D L W D
5	SV Darmstadt 98		31	13	12	6	55	40	15	51	D L L L D
6	Hertha BSC		31	13	9	9	44	36	8	48	W W L D L
7	1. FC Kaiserslautern		31	14	4	13	49	46	3	46	L W W L L
8	1. FC Nürnberg		31	11	8	12	40	41	-1	41	W D L D W
9	Karlsruher SC		31	11	7	13	48	59	-11	40	W L W L L
10	VfL Bochum		31	10	9	12	45	44	1	39	L L W L W
11	Holstein Kiel	0-2	31	10	8	13	40	43	-3	38	W D W W W
12	Dynamo Dresden		31	9	8	14	50	50	0	35	L L W W L
13	Arminia Bielefeld		31	9	8	14	46	47	-1	35	L W L D W
14	Eintracht Braunschweig		31	9	7	15	34	50	-16	34	L D L D W
15	Fortuna Düsseldorf		31	10	4	17	30	48	-18	34	L L L L W
16	1. FC Magdeburg		31	10	3	18	48	56	-8	33	W W L W L
17	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	0-2	31	9	6	16	44	65	-21	33	L L D W L
18	Preußen Münster		31	6	10	15	34	54	-20	28	L D D L L

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Our prediction i

Full predictions

Teams in this match: SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel

#	Team	MP	Pred Pts	Pred #
1	FC Schalke 04	31	69	1
2	SC Paderborn 07	31	62	3
3	Hannover 96	31	61	3
4	SV Elversberg	31	60	3
5	SV Darmstadt 98	31	55	5
6	Hertha BSC	31	51	6
7	1. FC Kaiserslautern	31	50	7
8	1. FC Nürnberg	31	45	9
9	Karlsruher SC	31	43	10
10	VfL Bochum	31	43	10
11	Holstein Kiel	31	41	11
12	Dynamo Dresden	31	39	13
13	Arminia Bielefeld	31	40	12
14	Eintracht Braunschweig	31	38	15
15	Fortuna Düsseldorf	31	38	15
16	1. FC Magdeburg	31	38	14
17	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	31	36	16
18	Preußen Münster	31	31	18

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Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

38.8%

Home Win

27.0%

Draw

34.1%

Away Win

Expected Goals

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.50

Holstein Kiel 1.40

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

Holstein Kiel

Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Missing Players

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CatBoost Prediction

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