Holstein Kiel vs Dynamo Dresden

2. Bundesliga

Holstein Kiel

HT: 1–1

Dynamo Dresden

20 Dec 2025

20:30

Holstein-Stadion

Stadium

Holstein-Stadion

Kiel, Germany

Capacity: 15034 Surface: grass Address: Westring 501

Score Summary

Holstein Kiel

2 1

FT HT 1–1

Dynamo Dresden

P. Harres 29'
I. Nekic 51'

12' V. Vermeij

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

55% Win

Holstein Kiel 1492 1501 ▲ 9

45% Win

Dynamo Dresden 1458 1449 ▼ -9

xPi Expected win probability

47% Win

Holstein Kiel -0.21 -0.27 ▼ -0.05

35% Win

Dynamo Dresden -0.03 0.06 ▲ 0.09

Top Performers

Top Rated

Ivan Nekić

Holstein Kiel

8.3

8.3 rating · 75 min

Most Clinical

Ivan Nekić

Holstein Kiel

8.3

1 goals

Best Creator

Niklas Niehoff

Holstein Kiel

7.6

3 key passes · 1 assists

Defensive Leader

Robert Wagner

Holstein Kiel

7.0

2 tackles · 2 interceptions

Match Momentum

Holstein Kiel 33% Dynamo Dresden 67%

Key Stats Snapshot

49 Possession 51

12 Shots 19

4 On Target 8

Form Context

Holstein Kiel

W D W W W

Dynamo Dresden

L L W W L

Smart Insight

Dynamo Dresden carried stronger momentum across the match profile.
Dynamo Dresden produced more shot pressure than expected.
Elo movement favors Holstein Kiel after this result.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 43.1%

Draw 26.8%

Away Win 30.1%

Expected Goals 1.60 - 1.30

Standings (Top 6)

Full table

#	Team	Pts	Form
1	FC Schalke 04	64	D W W W W
2	SC Paderborn 07	58	W W W D L
3	Hannover 96	57	W D W D W
4	SV Elversberg	56	W D L W D
5	SV Darmstadt 98	51	D L L L D
6	Hertha BSC	48	W W L D L

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49 Possession 51

4 Shots 8

12 Shots 19

1 Offsides 0

6 Shots Off Goal 5

4 Shots On Goal 8

12 Total Shots 19

49 Ball Possession 51

356 Passes Accurate 371

455 Total Passes 467

78% Passes % 79%

2 Blocked Shots 6

7 Goalkeeper Saves 2

7 Fouls 8

0 Red Cards 0

0 Yellow Cards 1

7 Corner Kicks 9

8 Shots Insidebox 8

4 Shots Outsidebox 11

1.08 expected_goals 1.23

N/A goals_prevented N/A

Holstein Kiel — Player Statistics

Player	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Adrián Kaprálik	3	-	2	10	4	2	-	False	64	20	F	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	11	2	14	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 Andu Yobel Kelati	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	16	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 David Zec	-	-	-	13	5	1	2	False	90	26	D	6.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	61	1	67	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Frederik Roslyng	-	-	-	5	3	-	-	False	15	2	D	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	2	-	4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Ivan Nekić	1	-	1	6	6	-	-	False	75	13	D	8.3	False	0	0	-	1	-	46	-	53	-	-	-	1	2	1	1	2
👤 John Tolkin	-	-	-	2	1	-	-	False	27	47	D	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	7	1	11	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Jonas Krumrey	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	False	90	21	G	7.3	False	0	1	7	-	-	34	-	46	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jonas Therkelsen	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	False	26	10	M	6.6	True	0	0	-	-	-	7	-	8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Kasper Davidsen	-	-	-	3	3	-	-	False	12	15	M	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	1	-	3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Lasse Rosenboom	-	1	-	7	4	1	1	False	90	23	M	7	False	0	0	-	-	-	19	-	30	-	-	-	-	1	1	-	1
👤 Magnus Knudsen	-	1	-	1	-	-	-	False	15	24	M	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	3	-	6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Marcus Müller	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	25	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Marko Ivezić	-	-	-	6	3	-	-	False	90	6	D	7.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	52	-	56	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1
👤 Mladen Cvjetinović	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	17	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Niklas Niehoff	1	-	1	2	2	-	-	False	63	29	M	7.6	False	1	0	-	-	-	23	3	30	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	1
👤 Phil Harres	1	1	-	16	2	1	1	False	90	19	F	6.7	False	0	0	-	1	-	7	1	16	-	-	-	3	3	-	-	-
👤 Robert Wagner	-	-	-	3	3	-	1	False	88	39	M	7	False	0	0	-	-	-	43	-	46	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	2
👤 Stefan Schwab	1	2	1	10	4	1	1	False	90	22	M	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	21	1	34	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	2
👤 Steven Skrzybski	3	-	2	9	7	1	2	True	75	7	F	7.5	False	1	0	-	-	1	19	1	31	-	-	-	-	3	-	1	3
👤 Timon Weiner	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	1	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Dynamo Dresden — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Alexander Rossipal	0	2	1	1	5	2	-	1	False	90	19	M	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	37	-	45	-	-	-	1	2	1	1	-
👤 Aljaž Casar	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	17	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Christoph Daferner	0	-	-	-	4	1	-	-	False	16	33	F	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	1	-	2	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Claudio Kammerknecht	0	1	-	1	5	4	-	-	False	16	15	D	7.2	True	0	0	-	-	-	13	1	13	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Daniel Mesenholer	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	37	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Friedrich Muller	0	-	1	-	8	6	-	1	False	90	42	D	7	False	0	0	-	-	-	58	1	64	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	2
👤 Jakob Lemmer	0	-	-	-	3	3	-	1	False	90	10	F	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	21	-	31	-	-	-	3	3	-	1	-
👤 Jonas Oehmichen	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	25	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Julian Pauli	1	-	1	-	7	4	1	-	False	74	13	D	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	38	-	45	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	2
👤 Kofi Jeremy Amoako	0	1	2	1	13	6	3	-	False	90	6	M	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	31	4	43	-	-	-	-	1	-	2	2
👤 Konrad Faber	0	3	1	-	7	1	-	-	False	90	2	M	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	42	1	49	-	-	-	-	1	-	4	-
👤 Lars Bünning	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	23	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Luca Herrmann	0	-	-	-	2	-	-	-	False	74	8	M	6.3	False	1	0	-	-	-	30	3	34	-	-	-	1	1	-	4	-
👤 Lukas Boeder	0	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	False	54	29	D	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	24	-	31	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	-
👤 Niklas Hauptmann	0	1	1	-	8	2	2	1	True	84	27	F	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	12	-	13	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 Nils Fröling	0	2	-	1	6	2	-	-	False	36	16	F	5.5	True	0	0	-	-	-	6	-	9	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Stefan Kutschke	0	-	-	-	10	6	1	-	False	16	30	F	7.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	6	2	10	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Tim Schreiber	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	1	G	6.7	False	0	2	2	-	-	27	-	44	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Vincent Vermeij	0	-	-	-	13	8	-	2	False	84	9	F	7.9	False	0	0	-	1	-	11	2	17	-	-	-	1	2	-	-	1
👤 Vinko Šapina	0	1	-	1	3	2	1	-	False	16	5	M	7.2	True	0	0	-	-	-	14	2	17	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	1

League standings

Full table

Teams in this match: Holstein Kiel and Dynamo Dresden

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Schalke 04		31	19	7	5	48	28	20	64	D W W W W
2	SC Paderborn 07		31	17	7	7	54	38	16	58	W W W D L
3	Hannover 96		31	16	9	6	53	37	16	57	W D W D W
4	SV Elversberg		31	16	8	7	55	35	20	56	W D L W D
5	SV Darmstadt 98		31	13	12	6	55	40	15	51	D L L L D
6	Hertha BSC		31	13	9	9	44	36	8	48	W W L D L
7	1. FC Kaiserslautern		31	14	4	13	49	46	3	46	L W W L L
8	1. FC Nürnberg		31	11	8	12	40	41	-1	41	W D L D W
9	Karlsruher SC		31	11	7	13	48	59	-11	40	W L W L L
10	VfL Bochum		31	10	9	12	45	44	1	39	L L W L W
11	Holstein Kiel	2-1	31	10	8	13	40	43	-3	38	W D W W W
12	Dynamo Dresden	2-1	31	9	8	14	50	50	0	35	L L W W L
13	Arminia Bielefeld		31	9	8	14	46	47	-1	35	L W L D W
14	Eintracht Braunschweig		31	9	7	15	34	50	-16	34	L D L D W
15	Fortuna Düsseldorf		31	10	4	17	30	48	-18	34	L L L L W
16	1. FC Magdeburg		31	10	3	18	48	56	-8	33	W W L W L
17	SpVgg Greuther Fürth		31	9	6	16	44	65	-21	33	L L D W L
18	Preußen Münster		31	6	10	15	34	54	-20	28	L D D L L

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Our prediction i

Full predictions

Teams in this match: Holstein Kiel and Dynamo Dresden

#	Team	MP	Pred Pts	Pred #
1	FC Schalke 04	31	69	1
2	SC Paderborn 07	31	62	3
3	Hannover 96	31	61	3
4	SV Elversberg	31	60	3
5	SV Darmstadt 98	31	55	5
6	Hertha BSC	31	51	6
7	1. FC Kaiserslautern	31	50	7
8	1. FC Nürnberg	31	45	9
9	Karlsruher SC	31	43	10
10	VfL Bochum	31	43	10
11	Holstein Kiel	31	41	11
12	Dynamo Dresden	31	39	13
13	Arminia Bielefeld	31	40	12
14	Eintracht Braunschweig	31	38	15
15	Fortuna Düsseldorf	31	38	15
16	1. FC Magdeburg	31	38	14
17	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	31	36	16
18	Preußen Münster	31	31	18

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Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

43.1%

Home Win

26.8%

Draw

30.1%

Away Win

Expected Goals

Holstein Kiel 1.60

Dynamo Dresden 1.30

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

Holstein Kiel

Dynamo Dresden

Holstein-Stadion

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)