Holstein Kiel vs SC Paderborn 07

2. Bundesliga

Holstein Kiel

HT: 1–0

SC Paderborn 07

18' S. Skrzybski
67' L. Rosenboom

18 Jan 2026

13:30

Holstein-Stadion

Stadium

Holstein-Stadion

Kiel, Germany

Capacity: 15034 Surface: grass Address: Westring 501

Score Summary

Holstein Kiel

2 0

FT HT 1–0

SC Paderborn 07

S. Skrzybski 18'
L. Rosenboom 67'

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

46% Win

Holstein Kiel 1501 1511 ▲ 11

54% Win

SC Paderborn 07 1531 1520 ▼ -11

xPi Expected win probability

34% Win

Holstein Kiel -0.24 -0.27 ▼ -0.03

49% Win

SC Paderborn 07 0.34 0.46 ▲ 0.12

Top Performers

Top Rated

Jonas Krumrey

Holstein Kiel

7.6

7.6 rating · 90 min

Most Clinical

Steven Skrzybski

Holstein Kiel

7.2

1 goals

Best Creator

Raphael Obermair

SC Paderborn 07

6.6

4 key passes · 0 assists

Defensive Leader

Felix Götze

SC Paderborn 07

6.2

3 tackles · 4 interceptions

Match Momentum

Holstein Kiel 33% SC Paderborn 07 67%

Key Stats Snapshot

38 Possession 62

7 Shots 18

3 On Target 6

Form Context

Holstein Kiel

W D W W W

SC Paderborn 07

W W W D L

Smart Insight

SC Paderborn 07 carried stronger momentum across the match profile.
SC Paderborn 07 produced more shot pressure than expected.
Elo movement favors Holstein Kiel after this result.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 28.3%

Draw 26.6%

Away Win 45.1%

Expected Goals 1.26 - 1.64

Standings (Top 6)

Full table

#	Team	Scr	Pts	Form
1	FC Schalke 04		64	D W W W W
2	SC Paderborn 07	2-0	58	W W W D L
3	Hannover 96		57	W D W D W
4	SV Elversberg		56	W D L W D
5	SV Darmstadt 98		51	D L L L D
6	Hertha BSC		48	W W L D L

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2. Bundesliga (Relegation)

38 Possession 62

3 Shots 6

7 Shots 18

0 Offsides 4

2 Shots Off Goal 8

3 Shots On Goal 6

7 Total Shots 18

38 Ball Possession 62

261 Passes Accurate 450

327 Total Passes 536

80% Passes % 84%

2 Blocked Shots 4

5 Goalkeeper Saves 1

12 Fouls 18

0 Red Cards 0

3 Yellow Cards 3

1 Corner Kicks 11

6 Shots Insidebox 9

1 Shots Outsidebox 9

N/A expected_goals N/A

N/A goals_prevented N/A

Holstein Kiel — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Adrián Kaprálik	0	1	1	-	6	2	-	1	False	15	20	F	6.3	True	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Aldin Jakupovic	1	1	-	-	4	1	1	1	False	21	18	F	6.5	True	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 David Zec	1	-	-	-	6	3	-	1	False	90	26	D	7.2	False	0	-	-	-	50	-	55	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	2
👤 Frederik Roslyng	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	2	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Ivan Nekić	0	1	1	1	5	3	-	1	False	90	13	D	7.2	False	0	-	-	-	21	1	28	-	-	-	-	1	1	1	-
👤 John Tolkin	0	2	-	-	13	7	1	2	False	90	47	M	7.3	False	0	-	-	-	22	3	30	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1
👤 Jonas Krumrey	0	-	-	-	2	2	-	1	False	90	21	G	7.6	False	0	5	-	-	23	-	38	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jonas Meffert	1	-	1	-	4	1	1	1	False	90	28	M	6.6	False	0	-	-	-	58	-	60	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jonas Therkelsen	0	3	1	2	11	7	-	3	False	85	10	M	7.2	False	0	-	-	-	6	1	14	-	-	-	-	-	2	1	2
👤 Kasper Davidsen	0	1	1	-	4	2	-	1	False	29	15	M	6.7	True	0	-	-	-	5	-	6	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 Lasse Rosenboom	0	-	-	-	4	1	1	1	False	29	23	D	7.6	True	0	-	1	-	1	-	1	-	-	-	1	1	-	2	-
👤 Marco Komenda	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	3	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Marcus Müller	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	25	F	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Marko Ivezić	0	2	-	1	15	7	1	-	False	90	6	D	7.3	False	0	-	-	-	39	-	46	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	5
👤 Niklas Niehoff	0	-	-	-	2	1	-	1	False	61	29	M	7.5	False	0	-	-	-	4	-	5	-	-	-	1	1	1	-	-
👤 Phil Harres	0	-	-	-	9	3	4	-	False	85	19	F	6.7	False	1	-	-	-	6	2	9	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Stefan Schwab	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	False	21	22	M	6.6	True	0	-	-	-	3	-	4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Steven Skrzybski	0	1	-	-	4	1	1	1	True	75	7	F	7.2	False	0	-	1	-	5	-	9	-	-	-	1	1	1	2	-
👤 Timon Weiner	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	1	G	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Umut Tohumcu	0	2	1	1	14	8	2	3	False	61	8	M	6.9	False	0	-	-	-	18	-	22	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	3

SC Paderborn 07 — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Calvin Brackelmann	0	-	-	-	5	4	-	1	False	90	4	D	6.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	52	1	64	-	-	-	2	3	1	1	-
👤 Dennis Seimen	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	41	G	7	False	0	2	1	-	-	37	-	41	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Felix Götze	0	1	2	1	21	10	3	1	True	90	20	D	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	60	2	69	-	-	-	-	-	-	4	3
👤 Filip Bilbija	0	-	-	-	6	2	1	1	False	28	7	M	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	4	1	8	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Jonah Sticker	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	3	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Kennedy Okpala	1	1	-	-	5	2	2	1	False	28	10	F	6.5	True	0	0	-	-	-	2	-	3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Laurin Curda	0	2	-	1	11	6	4	2	False	90	17	M	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	2	29	3	39	-	-	-	-	1	-	3	2
👤 Lucas Copado	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	28	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Luis Engelns	0	1	-	-	4	1	-	1	False	9	6	M	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	4	-	4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Markus Schubert	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	1	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Mattes Hansen	1	1	-	1	4	1	1	-	False	22	22	M	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	20	-	22	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Mika Baur	1	-	1	-	6	3	2	2	False	90	14	M	7.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	69	3	76	-	-	-	1	2	1	3	1
👤 Nick Bätzner	0	1	1	1	3	1	1	-	False	62	9	F	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	2	15	2	19	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Raphael Obermair	0	1	-	-	6	1	2	-	False	90	23	M	6.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	30	4	35	-	-	-	-	1	-	2	1
👤 Ruben Müller	0	1	-	1	3	2	1	-	False	9	2	M	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	9	-	12	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
👤 Santiago Castaneda	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	5	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Sebastian Klaas	0	2	-	1	8	4	-	1	False	81	26	M	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	41	-	48	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	2
👤 Steffen Tigges	0	-	1	-	9	6	1	-	False	81	27	F	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	11	-	15	-	-	-	-	2	-	-	3
👤 Sven Michel	0	1	-	-	10	9	-	1	False	62	11	F	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	8	-	19	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	3
👤 Tjark Lasse Scheller	0	-	-	-	3	2	-	1	False	68	25	D	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	59	-	62	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	-

League standings

Full table

Teams in this match: Holstein Kiel and SC Paderborn 07

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Schalke 04		31	19	7	5	48	28	20	64	D W W W W
2	SC Paderborn 07	2-0	31	17	7	7	54	38	16	58	W W W D L
3	Hannover 96		31	16	9	6	53	37	16	57	W D W D W
4	SV Elversberg		31	16	8	7	55	35	20	56	W D L W D
5	SV Darmstadt 98		31	13	12	6	55	40	15	51	D L L L D
6	Hertha BSC		31	13	9	9	44	36	8	48	W W L D L
7	1. FC Kaiserslautern		31	14	4	13	49	46	3	46	L W W L L
8	1. FC Nürnberg		31	11	8	12	40	41	-1	41	W D L D W
9	Karlsruher SC		31	11	7	13	48	59	-11	40	W L W L L
10	VfL Bochum		31	10	9	12	45	44	1	39	L L W L W
11	Holstein Kiel	2-0	31	10	8	13	40	43	-3	38	W D W W W
12	Dynamo Dresden		31	9	8	14	50	50	0	35	L L W W L
13	Arminia Bielefeld		31	9	8	14	46	47	-1	35	L W L D W
14	Eintracht Braunschweig		31	9	7	15	34	50	-16	34	L D L D W
15	Fortuna Düsseldorf		31	10	4	17	30	48	-18	34	L L L L W
16	1. FC Magdeburg		31	10	3	18	48	56	-8	33	W W L W L
17	SpVgg Greuther Fürth		31	9	6	16	44	65	-21	33	L L D W L
18	Preußen Münster		31	6	10	15	34	54	-20	28	L D D L L

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Our prediction i

Full predictions

Teams in this match: Holstein Kiel and SC Paderborn 07

#	Team	MP	Pred Pts	Pred #
1	FC Schalke 04	31	69	1
2	SC Paderborn 07	31	62	3
3	Hannover 96	31	61	3
4	SV Elversberg	31	60	3
5	SV Darmstadt 98	31	55	5
6	Hertha BSC	31	51	6
7	1. FC Kaiserslautern	31	50	7
8	1. FC Nürnberg	31	45	9
9	Karlsruher SC	31	43	10
10	VfL Bochum	31	43	10
11	Holstein Kiel	31	41	11
12	Dynamo Dresden	31	39	13
13	Arminia Bielefeld	31	40	12
14	Eintracht Braunschweig	31	38	15
15	Fortuna Düsseldorf	31	38	15
16	1. FC Magdeburg	31	38	14
17	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	31	36	16
18	Preußen Münster	31	31	18

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Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

28.3%

Home Win

26.6%

Draw

45.1%

Away Win

Expected Goals

Holstein Kiel 1.26

SC Paderborn 07 1.64

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

Holstein Kiel

SC Paderborn 07

Holstein-Stadion

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

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