Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland

Premier League

Nottingham Forest

HT: 0–1

Sunderland

38' O. Alderete

27 Sep 2025

18:30

City Ground

Stadium

The City Ground

Nottingham, Nottinghamshire, England

Capacity: 30576 Surface: grass Address: Pavilion Road

Score Summary

Nottingham Forest

0 1

FT HT 0–1

Sunderland

38' O. Alderete

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

49% Win

Nottingham Forest 1495 1488 ▼ -7

51% Win

Sunderland 1505 1512 ▲ 7

xPi Expected win probability

42% Win

Nottingham Forest 0.03 0.22 ▲ 0.20

36% Win

Sunderland -0.06 -0.08 ▼ -0.02

Top Performers

Top Rated

Robin Roefs

Sunderland

9.2

9.2 rating · 90 min

Most Clinical

Omar Alderete

Sunderland

8.6

1 goals

Best Creator

Neco Williams

Nottingham Forest

7.2

4 key passes · 0 assists

Defensive Leader

Elliot Anderson

Nottingham Forest

7.3

4 tackles · 1 interceptions

Match Momentum

Nottingham Forest 67% Sunderland 33%

Key Stats Snapshot

65 Possession 35

22 Shots 11

6 On Target 3

Form Context

Nottingham Forest

D W D W W

Sunderland

L W W L L

Smart Insight

Nottingham Forest controlled momentum for most phases of play.
Nottingham Forest generated the clearer shot volume edge.
Elo movement favors Sunderland after this result.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 39.5%

Draw 27.7%

Away Win 32.8%

Expected Goals 1.46 - 1.32

Standings (Top 6)

Full table

#	Team	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal	73	W W L L W
2	Manchester City	70	D D W W W
3	Manchester United	61	W D L W W
4	Liverpool	58	D L W W W
5	Aston Villa	58	L W D W L
6	Brighton	50	W W W D W

Promotion - Champions League (League phase)

Promotion - Europa League (League phase)

Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs)

Relegation - Championship

65 Possession 35

6 Shots 3

22 Shots 11

0 Offsides 1

10 Shots Off Goal 5

6 Shots On Goal 3

22 Total Shots 11

65 Ball Possession 35

521 Passes Accurate 258

578 Total Passes 318

90% Passes % 81%

6 Blocked Shots 3

2 Goalkeeper Saves 6

11 Fouls 6

0 Red Cards 0

4 Yellow Cards 2

7 Corner Kicks 4

15 Shots Insidebox 8

7 Shots Outsidebox 3

1.68 expected_goals 1.66

1 goals_prevented 1

Nottingham Forest — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Arnaud Kalimuendo	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	1	15	F	-	True	0	0	-	-	-	1	-	2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Callum Hudson-Odoi	0	2	-	1	2	1	-	-	False	30	7	F	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	15	2	17	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Chris Wood	0	-	-	-	4	2	-	-	True	89	11	F	5.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	10	-	13	-	-	-	1	6	1	-	-
👤 Dan Ndoye	0	2	1	2	8	3	1	-	False	60	14	M	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	19	-	25	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Dilane Bakwa	0	6	1	1	11	2	1	1	False	72	29	M	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	30	3	36	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Elliot Anderson	1	-	-	-	11	8	2	2	False	90	8	M	7.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	69	1	78	-	-	-	1	3	-	1	4
👤 Ibrahim Sangaré	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	6	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Igor Jesus	0	-	1	-	4	3	-	-	False	30	19	F	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	9	-	11	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Jair	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	23	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 James McAtee	0	1	1	1	6	3	1	1	False	60	24	M	6.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	25	-	25	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 John Victor	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	13	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Matz Sels	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	26	G	6.9	False	0	1	2	-	-	19	-	27	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Morato	0	1	-	1	5	4	-	-	False	90	4	D	7.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	69	-	74	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	1
👤 Morgan Gibbs-White	0	-	-	-	1	-	1	-	False	45	10	M	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	37	1	41	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Neco Williams	1	2	1	2	16	9	2	1	False	90	3	D	7.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	44	4	46	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	3
👤 Nicolás Domínguez	1	-	-	-	3	2	2	-	False	45	16	M	6.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	37	-	38	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Nikola Milenković	1	-	-	-	4	2	-	-	False	90	31	D	7	False	0	0	-	-	-	76	-	79	-	-	-	-	1	2	-	-
👤 Oleksandr Zinchenko	0	-	2	-	7	5	-	1	False	90	35	D	7	False	0	0	-	-	-	55	1	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	3
👤 Omari Hutchinson	0	2	-	1	4	2	1	-	False	18	21	F	7.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	6	4	8	-	-	-	2	2	-	-	1
👤 Ryan Yates	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	22	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Sunderland — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Anthony Patterson	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	1	G	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Arthur Masuaku	1	3	1	1	9	4	2	-	False	59	26	D	6.6	False	0	-	-	-	20	-	24	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	2
👤 Bertrand Traoré	0	2	-	1	5	2	-	-	False	31	25	F	6.3	True	0	-	-	-	7	1	8	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	1
👤 Brian Brobbey	0	-	1	-	1	-	-	-	False	12	9	F	6.3	True	0	-	-	1	2	-	3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Chemsdine Talbi	0	2	1	1	6	3	-	-	False	85	7	M	6.7	False	0	-	-	-	14	-	18	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	2
👤 Chris Rigg	0	-	-	-	6	2	1	-	False	59	11	M	6.3	False	0	-	-	-	9	-	13	-	-	-	-	1	1	-	1
👤 Dan Neil	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	4	M	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Daniel Ballard	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	False	15	5	D	6.9	True	0	-	-	-	1	-	1	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Eliezer Mayenda	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	12	F	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Enzo Le Fée	0	-	3	-	7	3	-	1	False	75	28	M	6.9	False	0	-	-	-	18	1	20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Granit Xhaka	0	-	-	-	11	7	-	3	True	90	34	M	8.3	False	1	-	-	-	26	1	31	-	-	-	-	-	2	1	2
👤 Luke O'Nien	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	13	M	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Lutsharel Geertruida	0	-	1	-	2	-	-	-	False	31	6	D	6.9	True	0	-	-	-	10	-	11	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Noah Sadiki	1	1	-	1	9	6	1	5	False	90	27	M	7	False	0	-	-	-	29	-	31	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Nordi Mukiele	0	1	-	1	9	5	1	-	False	90	20	D	7.2	False	0	-	-	-	35	-	45	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
👤 Omar Alderete	0	1	-	1	3	2	-	-	False	90	15	D	8.6	False	0	-	1	-	27	-	33	-	-	-	1	1	2	-	-
👤 Robin Roefs	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	False	90	22	G	9.2	False	0	6	-	-	26	2	39	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Simon Adingra	0	-	-	-	2	-	-	-	False	12	24	F	6.5	True	0	-	-	-	1	-	2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Trai Hume	0	-	2	-	7	2	1	1	False	90	32	D	6.6	False	0	-	-	-	26	-	30	-	-	-	-	1	1	2	-
👤 Wilson Isidor	0	2	-	1	7	2	-	-	False	85	18	F	6.5	False	0	-	-	-	7	-	9	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-

League standings

Full table

Teams in this match: Nottingham Forest and Sunderland

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal		34	22	7	5	64	26	38	73	W W L L W
2	Manchester City		33	21	7	5	66	29	37	70	D D W W W
3	Manchester United		34	17	10	7	60	46	14	61	W D L W W
4	Liverpool		34	17	7	10	57	44	13	58	D L W W W
5	Aston Villa		34	17	7	10	47	42	5	58	L W D W L
6	Brighton		34	13	11	10	48	39	9	50	W W W D W
7	Bournemouth		34	11	16	7	52	52	0	49	D D W W D
8	Chelsea		34	13	9	12	53	45	8	48	L L L L L
9	Brentford		34	13	9	12	49	46	3	48	D D D D L
10	Fulham		34	14	6	14	44	46	-2	48	D W L D W
11	Everton		34	13	8	13	41	41	0	47	L W D L L
12	Sunderland	0-1	34	12	10	12	36	45	-9	46	L W W L L
13	Crystal Palace		33	11	10	12	36	39	-3	43	W D W D L
14	Newcastle		34	12	6	16	46	50	-4	42	W L L L L
15	Leeds		34	9	13	12	44	51	-7	40	D D W W D
16	Nottingham Forest	0-1	34	10	9	15	41	45	-4	39	D W D W W
17	West Ham		34	9	9	16	42	58	-16	36	D L W D W
18	Tottenham		34	8	10	16	43	53	-10	34	D L L D W
19	Burnley		34	4	8	22	34	68	-34	20	D L L L L
20	Wolves		34	3	8	23	24	62	-38	17	W D L L L

Promotion - Champions League (League phase)

Promotion - Europa League (League phase)

Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs)

Relegation - Championship

Our prediction i

Full predictions

Teams in this match: Nottingham Forest and Sunderland

#	Team	MP	Pred Pts	Pred #
1	Arsenal	34	80	1
2	Manchester City	33	79	2
3	Manchester United	34	67	3
4	Liverpool	34	65	4
5	Aston Villa	34	63	5
6	Brighton	34	55	8
7	Bournemouth	34	54	9
8	Chelsea	34	55	8
9	Brentford	34	53	9
10	Fulham	34	53	10
11	Everton	34	52	11
12	Sunderland	34	50	12
13	Crystal Palace	33	48	13
14	Newcastle	34	49	13
15	Leeds	34	46	15
16	Nottingham Forest	34	44	15
17	West Ham	34	40	17
18	Tottenham	34	39	17
19	Burnley	34	24	19
20	Wolves	34	22	20

Promotion - Champions League (League phase)

Promotion - Europa League (League phase)

Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs)

Relegation - Championship

Predict the score

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CatBoost Prediction

Model not available yet. Run train_catboost to train a model.

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

39.5%

Home Win

27.7%

Draw

32.8%

Away Win

Expected Goals

Nottingham Forest 1.46

Sunderland 1.32

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

Nottingham Forest

Sunderland

The City Ground

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)