Aston Villa vs Burnley - Football Platform

Premier League

Aston Villa

HT: 1–0

Burnley

05 Oct 2025

15:00

Villa Park

Stadium

Villa Park

Birmingham, England

Capacity: 42824 Surface: grass Address: Trinity Road

Score Summary

Aston Villa

2 1

FT HT 1–0

Burnley

D. Malen 25'
D. Malen 63'

78' L. Ugochukwu

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

54% Win

Aston Villa 1513 1520 ▲ 7

46% Win

Burnley 1483 1476 ▼ -7

xPi Expected win probability

47% Win

Aston Villa -0.23 0.24 ▲ 0.47

34% Win

Burnley -0.35 -0.76 ▼ -0.40

Top Performers

Top Rated

Donyell Malen

Aston Villa

8.9

8.9 rating · 84 min

Most Clinical

Donyell Malen

Aston Villa

8.9

2 goals

Best Creator

Lucas Digne

Aston Villa

8.3

5 key passes · 0 assists

Defensive Leader

Josh Cullen

Burnley

7.3

7 tackles · 1 interceptions

Match Momentum

Aston Villa 78% Burnley 22%

Key Stats Snapshot

55 Possession 45

15 Shots 5

7 On Target 2

Form Context

Aston Villa

L W D W L

Burnley

D L L L L

Smart Insight

Aston Villa controlled momentum for most phases of play.
Aston Villa generated the clearer shot volume edge.
Elo movement favors Aston Villa after this result.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 43.4%

Draw 27.4%

Away Win 29.2%

Expected Goals 1.55 - 1.23

Standings (Top 6)

Full table

#	Team	Scr	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal		73	W W L L W
2	Manchester City		70	D D W W W
3	Manchester United		61	W D L W W
4	Liverpool		58	D L W W W
5	Aston Villa	2-1	58	L W D W L
6	Brighton		50	W W W D W

Promotion - Champions League (League phase)

Promotion - Europa League (League phase)

Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs)

Relegation - Championship

55 Possession 45

7 Shots 2

15 Shots 5

3 Offsides 5

5 Shots Off Goal 1

7 Shots On Goal 2

15 Total Shots 5

55 Ball Possession 45

434 Passes Accurate 331

496 Total Passes 409

88% Passes % 81%

3 Blocked Shots 2

1 Goalkeeper Saves 5

9 Fouls 15

0 Red Cards 0

3 Yellow Cards 1

6 Corner Kicks 4

12 Shots Insidebox 3

3 Shots Outsidebox 2

1.16 expected_goals 0.40

0 goals_prevented 0

Aston Villa — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Amadou Onana	0	-	-	-	3	2	-	-	False	13	24	M	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	2	-	4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Boubacar Kamara	0	1	-	-	15	10	1	2	False	90	44	M	7.7	False	1	0	-	-	-	60	2	68	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1
👤 Donyell Malen	0	5	-	2	10	4	-	1	False	84	17	F	8.9	False	0	0	-	2	-	11	2	15	-	-	-	2	3	-	-	1
👤 Emiliano Buendía	1	1	-	-	7	2	2	1	False	22	10	M	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	4	-	7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Emiliano Martínez	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	23	G	7	False	0	1	1	-	-	41	-	46	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Evann Guessand	0	2	1	1	7	5	-	-	False	23	29	F	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	3	-	4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Ezri Konsa	0	3	-	2	7	6	-	2	False	90	4	D	7.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	75	-	78	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	-
👤 Harvey Elliott	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	9	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Ian Maatsen	0	-	-	-	2	2	-	1	False	1	22	D	-	True	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Jamaldeen Jimoh	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	20	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 John McGinn	0	1	-	-	5	3	-	2	True	67	7	M	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	14	1	18	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	1
👤 Lamare Bogarde	0	2	1	-	7	3	1	3	False	89	26	M	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	56	1	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Lucas Digne	1	-	-	-	7	5	1	1	False	90	12	D	8.3	False	0	0	-	-	1	32	5	42	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	2
👤 Marco Bizot	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	40	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Matty Cash	0	-	-	-	3	1	1	-	False	84	2	D	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	1	41	1	46	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	1
👤 Morgan Rogers	0	3	-	1	11	5	2	1	False	90	27	M	7.2	False	1	0	-	-	-	23	1	25	-	-	-	2	2	-	1	2
👤 Ollie Watkins	0	2	-	-	9	4	1	1	False	67	11	F	5.9	False	0	0	-	-	1	9	-	15	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Pau Torres	0	-	-	-	6	4	-	-	False	90	14	D	7.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	58	-	63	-	-	-	-	1	1	2	3
👤 Ross Barkley	0	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	False	19	6	M	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	2	-	2	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Victor Lindelöf	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	19	3	D	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	3	-	5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Burnley — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Armando Broja	0	-	-	-	5	2	-	-	False	31	27	F	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	1	1	-	2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Axel Tuanzebe	0	-	-	-	11	4	1	-	False	90	6	D	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	42	-	50	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	3
👤 Bashir Humphreys	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	12	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Florentino Luís	0	1	1	1	11	7	2	1	False	90	16	M	7.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	56	1	62	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	5
👤 Hannibal Mejbri	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	28	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jacob Bruun Larsen	0	3	-	-	3	-	-	-	False	31	7	F	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	4	-	5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jaidon Anthony	0	-	1	-	11	5	2	1	False	59	11	M	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	12	-	14	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	4
👤 Joe Worrall	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	1	4	D	-	True	0	0	-	-	-	1	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Josh Cullen	0	-	2	-	13	10	1	3	True	90	24	M	7.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	50	-	60	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	7
👤 Josh Laurent	0	-	-	-	1	-	1	-	False	82	29	D	6	False	0	0	-	-	-	27	-	33	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	-
👤 Kyle Walker	0	2	-	-	17	7	2	2	False	90	2	D	5.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	25	-	38	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	3
👤 Lesley Ugochukwu	0	1	-	1	6	5	-	-	False	21	8	M	7.9	True	0	0	-	1	-	7	-	8	-	-	-	1	2	-	-	3
👤 Loum Tchaouna	0	1	-	-	3	2	-	1	False	59	17	M	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	1	9	-	13	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Lyle Foster	1	-	-	-	6	1	3	-	False	69	9	F	6	False	0	0	-	-	2	8	-	11	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Marcus Edwards	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	10	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Martin Dúbravka	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	1	G	8	False	0	2	5	-	-	17	-	29	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Max Weiss	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	13	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Maxime Estève	0	-	1	-	5	-	1	-	False	89	5	D	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	46	1	46	-	-	-	-	-	1	3	-
👤 Quilindschy Hartman	0	1	1	-	6	1	1	1	False	90	3	D	6.5	False	1	0	-	-	1	26	2	34	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Zian Flemming	0	-	-	-	2	-	1	-	False	8	19	M	6.5	True	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

League standings

Full table

Teams in this match: Aston Villa and Burnley

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal		34	22	7	5	64	26	38	73	W W L L W
2	Manchester City		33	21	7	5	66	29	37	70	D D W W W
3	Manchester United		34	17	10	7	60	46	14	61	W D L W W
4	Liverpool		34	17	7	10	57	44	13	58	D L W W W
5	Aston Villa	2-1	34	17	7	10	47	42	5	58	L W D W L
6	Brighton		34	13	11	10	48	39	9	50	W W W D W
7	Bournemouth		34	11	16	7	52	52	0	49	D D W W D
8	Chelsea		34	13	9	12	53	45	8	48	L L L L L
9	Brentford		34	13	9	12	49	46	3	48	D D D D L
10	Fulham		34	14	6	14	44	46	-2	48	D W L D W
11	Everton		34	13	8	13	41	41	0	47	L W D L L
12	Sunderland		34	12	10	12	36	45	-9	46	L W W L L
13	Crystal Palace		33	11	10	12	36	39	-3	43	W D W D L
14	Newcastle		34	12	6	16	46	50	-4	42	W L L L L
15	Leeds		34	9	13	12	44	51	-7	40	D D W W D
16	Nottingham Forest		34	10	9	15	41	45	-4	39	D W D W W
17	West Ham		34	9	9	16	42	58	-16	36	D L W D W
18	Tottenham		34	8	10	16	43	53	-10	34	D L L D W
19	Burnley	2-1	34	4	8	22	34	68	-34	20	D L L L L
20	Wolves		34	3	8	23	24	62	-38	17	W D L L L

Promotion - Champions League (League phase)

Promotion - Europa League (League phase)

Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs)

Relegation - Championship

Our prediction i

Full predictions

Teams in this match: Aston Villa and Burnley

#	Team	MP	Pred Pts	Pred #
1	Arsenal	34	80	1
2	Manchester City	33	79	2
3	Manchester United	34	67	3
4	Liverpool	34	65	4
5	Aston Villa	34	63	5
6	Brighton	34	55	8
7	Bournemouth	34	54	9
8	Chelsea	34	55	8
9	Brentford	34	53	9
10	Fulham	34	53	10
11	Everton	34	52	11
12	Sunderland	34	50	12
13	Crystal Palace	33	48	13
14	Newcastle	34	49	13
15	Leeds	34	46	15
16	Nottingham Forest	34	44	15
17	West Ham	34	40	17
18	Tottenham	34	39	17
19	Burnley	34	24	19
20	Wolves	34	22	20

Promotion - Champions League (League phase)

Promotion - Europa League (League phase)

Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs)

Relegation - Championship

Predict the score

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CatBoost Prediction

Model not available yet. Run train_catboost to train a model.

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

43.4%

Home Win

27.4%

Draw

29.2%

Away Win

Expected Goals

Aston Villa 1.55

Burnley 1.23

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

Aston Villa

Burnley

Villa Park

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)