Aston Villa vs Manchester City

Premier League

Aston Villa

HT: 1–0

Manchester City

Coach : Guardiola

19' M. Cash

26 Oct 2025

15:00

Villa Park

Stadium

Villa Park

Birmingham, England

Capacity: 42824 Surface: grass Address: Trinity Road

Score Summary

Aston Villa

1 0

FT HT 1–0

Manchester City

M. Cash 19'

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

47% Win

Aston Villa 1517 1527 ▲ 11

53% Win

Manchester City 1536 1526 ▼ -11

xPi Expected win probability

35% Win

Aston Villa -0.09 0.24 ▲ 0.34

46% Win

Manchester City 0.37 0.88 ▲ 0.51

Top Performers

Top Rated

Matty Cash

Aston Villa

8.5

8.5 rating · 90 min

Most Clinical

Matty Cash

Aston Villa

8.5

1 goals

Best Creator

Phil Foden

Manchester City

6.9

7 key passes · 0 assists

Defensive Leader

Matheus Nunes

Manchester City

6.9

2 tackles · 4 interceptions

Match Momentum

Aston Villa 43% Manchester City 57%

Key Stats Snapshot

47 Possession 53

9 Shots 18

3 On Target 4

Form Context

Aston Villa

L W D W L

Manchester City

D D W W W

Smart Insight

Manchester City carried stronger momentum across the match profile.
Manchester City produced more shot pressure than expected.
Elo movement favors Aston Villa after this result.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 29.7%

Draw 27.5%

Away Win 42.8%

Expected Goals 1.24 - 1.53

Standings (Top 6)

Full table

#	Team	Scr	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal		73	W W L L W
2	Manchester City	1-0	70	D D W W W
3	Manchester United		61	W D L W W
4	Liverpool		58	D L W W W
5	Aston Villa	1-0	58	L W D W L
6	Brighton		50	W W W D W

Promotion - Champions League (League phase)

Promotion - Europa League (League phase)

Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs)

Relegation - Championship

47 Possession 53

3 Shots 4

9 Shots 18

1 Offsides 3

1 Shots Off Goal 5

3 Shots On Goal 4

9 Total Shots 18

47 Ball Possession 53

388 Passes Accurate 455

449 Total Passes 504

86% Passes % 90%

5 Blocked Shots 9

3 Goalkeeper Saves 2

8 Fouls 16

0 Red Cards 0

1 Yellow Cards 4

5 Corner Kicks 6

8 Shots Insidebox 14

1 Shots Outsidebox 4

0.81 expected_goals 1.18

0 goals_prevented 0

Aston Villa — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Amadou Onana	0	-	-	-	11	6	1	3	False	90	24	M	8.2	False	0	-	-	-	42	-	43	-	-	-	-	-	4	1	3
👤 Boubacar Kamara	1	2	-	1	12	5	3	1	False	90	44	M	6.9	False	0	-	-	-	52	1	55	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	2
👤 Donyell Malen	0	1	-	-	3	1	-	-	False	11	17	F	6.3	True	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Emiliano Buendía	0	1	1	1	3	1	-	-	False	29	10	M	6.9	False	1	-	-	-	12	1	13	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Emiliano Martínez	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	23	G	7.3	False	0	3	-	-	30	-	44	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Evann Guessand	0	1	-	-	5	4	-	2	False	16	29	F	6.9	True	0	-	-	-	2	-	3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Ezri Konsa	0	-	-	-	7	3	1	-	False	90	4	D	7.3	False	0	-	-	-	62	-	65	-	-	-	-	-	2	3	1
👤 Ian Maatsen	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	11	22	D	6.2	True	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jadon Sancho	0	3	1	1	5	1	-	-	False	45	19	F	7	True	0	-	-	-	15	-	17	-	-	-	2	2	-	-	-
👤 John McGinn	0	-	1	-	6	4	-	4	True	74	7	M	6.9	False	0	-	-	-	11	-	17	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 Lamare Bogarde	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	26	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Lucas Digne	0	1	-	1	4	4	-	-	False	86	12	D	7.2	False	0	-	-	-	26	1	30	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	3
👤 Marco Bizot	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	40	G	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Matty Cash	0	1	1	-	8	4	1	2	False	90	2	D	8.5	False	0	-	1	-	39	1	48	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	2
👤 Morgan Rogers	0	1	-	1	7	6	-	2	False	90	27	M	7.3	False	0	-	-	-	22	1	29	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	3
👤 Ollie Watkins	0	2	-	1	9	3	1	1	False	86	11	F	6.2	False	0	-	-	1	18	1	22	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Pau Torres	0	-	2	-	3	-	1	-	False	90	14	D	7.3	False	0	-	-	-	51	-	56	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	-
👤 Ross Barkley	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	16	6	M	6.9	True	0	-	-	-	6	-	7	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-
👤 Tyrone Mings	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	5	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Victor Lindelöf	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	3	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Manchester City — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Bernardo Silva	0	-	1	-	3	1	-	1	True	61	20	M	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	1	15	1	19	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 Erling Haaland	0	1	-	-	9	5	-	1	False	90	9	F	6.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	7	-	7	-	-	-	3	3	-	-	-
👤 Gianluigi Donnarumma	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	25	G	7.6	False	0	1	2	-	-	12	-	13	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 James Trafford	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	1	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 John Stones	0	-	1	-	2	-	-	-	False	61	5	D	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	26	1	28	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	-
👤 Joško Gvardiol	0	-	-	-	5	2	4	-	False	90	24	D	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	68	-	73	-	-	-	-	2	-	1	1
👤 Jérémy Doku	0	2	-	1	5	3	-	2	False	29	11	F	7.2	True	0	0	-	-	-	14	1	18	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 Mateo Kovačić	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	8	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Matheus Nunes	0	1	2	1	6	4	-	1	False	90	27	D	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	83	-	89	-	-	-	-	1	-	4	2
👤 Nathan Aké	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	6	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Nico González	1	-	-	-	4	2	2	-	False	29	14	M	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	24	-	27	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Nico O'Reilly	0	3	-	-	9	4	1	-	False	29	33	M	6.5	True	0	0	-	-	-	8	1	9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	3
👤 Omar Marmoush	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	13	7	F	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	1	1	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Oscar Bobb	0	3	-	1	6	3	1	-	False	61	52	M	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	18	1	20	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	2
👤 Phil Foden	1	2	-	2	8	6	1	2	False	90	47	M	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	41	7	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Rayan Cherki	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	False	14	10	M	6.6	True	0	0	-	-	-	8	1	9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Rico Lewis	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	82	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Rúben Dias	0	-	1	-	9	7	1	-	False	90	3	D	7.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	71	1	74	-	-	-	-	-	3	2	-
👤 Savinho	1	4	1	1	9	3	2	-	False	84	26	M	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	22	-	31	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	2
👤 Tijjani Reijnders	1	1	-	-	7	-	4	-	False	76	4	M	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	1	37	-	39	-	-	-	-	2	-	-	-

League standings

Full table

Teams in this match: Aston Villa and Manchester City

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal		34	22	7	5	64	26	38	73	W W L L W
2	Manchester City	1-0	33	21	7	5	66	29	37	70	D D W W W
3	Manchester United		34	17	10	7	60	46	14	61	W D L W W
4	Liverpool		34	17	7	10	57	44	13	58	D L W W W
5	Aston Villa	1-0	34	17	7	10	47	42	5	58	L W D W L
6	Brighton		34	13	11	10	48	39	9	50	W W W D W
7	Bournemouth		34	11	16	7	52	52	0	49	D D W W D
8	Chelsea		34	13	9	12	53	45	8	48	L L L L L
9	Brentford		34	13	9	12	49	46	3	48	D D D D L
10	Fulham		34	14	6	14	44	46	-2	48	D W L D W
11	Everton		34	13	8	13	41	41	0	47	L W D L L
12	Sunderland		34	12	10	12	36	45	-9	46	L W W L L
13	Crystal Palace		33	11	10	12	36	39	-3	43	W D W D L
14	Newcastle		34	12	6	16	46	50	-4	42	W L L L L
15	Leeds		34	9	13	12	44	51	-7	40	D D W W D
16	Nottingham Forest		34	10	9	15	41	45	-4	39	D W D W W
17	West Ham		34	9	9	16	42	58	-16	36	D L W D W
18	Tottenham		34	8	10	16	43	53	-10	34	D L L D W
19	Burnley		34	4	8	22	34	68	-34	20	D L L L L
20	Wolves		34	3	8	23	24	62	-38	17	W D L L L

Promotion - Champions League (League phase)

Promotion - Europa League (League phase)

Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs)

Relegation - Championship

Our prediction i

Full predictions

Teams in this match: Aston Villa and Manchester City

#	Team	MP	Pred Pts	Pred #
1	Arsenal	34	80	1
2	Manchester City	33	79	2
3	Manchester United	34	67	3
4	Liverpool	34	65	4
5	Aston Villa	34	63	5
6	Brighton	34	55	8
7	Bournemouth	34	54	9
8	Chelsea	34	55	8
9	Brentford	34	53	9
10	Fulham	34	53	10
11	Everton	34	52	11
12	Sunderland	34	50	12
13	Crystal Palace	33	48	13
14	Newcastle	34	49	13
15	Leeds	34	46	15
16	Nottingham Forest	34	44	15
17	West Ham	34	40	17
18	Tottenham	34	39	17
19	Burnley	34	24	19
20	Wolves	34	22	20

Promotion - Champions League (League phase)

Promotion - Europa League (League phase)

Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs)

Relegation - Championship

Predict the score

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CatBoost Prediction

Model not available yet. Run train_catboost to train a model.

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

29.7%

Home Win

27.5%

Draw

42.8%

Away Win

Expected Goals

Aston Villa 1.24

Manchester City 1.53

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

Aston Villa

Manchester City

Villa Park

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)