Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest

Premier League

Aston Villa

HT: 1–0

Nottingham Forest

03 Jan 2026

13:30

Villa Park

Stadium

Villa Park

Birmingham, England

Capacity: 42824 Surface: grass Address: Trinity Road

Score Summary

Aston Villa

3 1

FT HT 1–0

Nottingham Forest

61' M. Gibbs-White

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

66% Win

Aston Villa 1600 1607 ▲ 7

34% Win

Nottingham Forest 1484 1478 ▼ -7

xPi Expected win probability

44% Win

Aston Villa 0.09 0.24 ▲ 0.16

36% Win

Nottingham Forest 0.15 0.22 ▲ 0.08

Top Performers

Top Rated

John McGinn

Aston Villa

8.3

8.3 rating · 83 min

Most Clinical

John McGinn

Aston Villa

8.3

2 goals

Best Creator

Morgan Rogers

Aston Villa

6.9

2 key passes · 1 assists

Defensive Leader

Boubacar Kamara

Aston Villa

7.6

6 tackles · 4 interceptions

Match Momentum

Aston Villa 44% Nottingham Forest 56%

Key Stats Snapshot

73 Possession 27

11 Shots 10

4 On Target 5

Form Context

Aston Villa

L W D W L

Nottingham Forest

D W D W W

Smart Insight

Nottingham Forest carried stronger momentum across the match profile.
Elo movement favors Aston Villa after this result.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 41.0%

Draw 27.6%

Away Win 31.4%

Expected Goals 1.49 - 1.28

Standings (Top 6)

Full table

#	Team	Scr	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal		73	W W L L W
2	Manchester City		70	D D W W W
3	Manchester United		61	W D L W W
4	Liverpool		58	D L W W W
5	Aston Villa	3-1	58	L W D W L
6	Brighton		50	W W W D W

Promotion - Champions League (League phase)

Promotion - Europa League (League phase)

Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs)

Relegation - Championship

73 Possession 27

4 Shots 5

11 Shots 10

1 Offsides 4

3 Shots Off Goal 3

4 Shots On Goal 5

11 Total Shots 10

73 Ball Possession 27

579 Passes Accurate 170

645 Total Passes 239

90% Passes % 71%

4 Blocked Shots 2

4 Goalkeeper Saves 1

10 Fouls 20

0 Red Cards 0

1 Yellow Cards 2

4 Corner Kicks 4

5 Shots Insidebox 6

6 Shots Outsidebox 4

1.59 expected_goals 0.89

-1 goals_prevented -1

Aston Villa — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Andrés García	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	8	16	D	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	1	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Boubacar Kamara	0	5	3	2	24	14	2	2	False	90	44	M	7.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	86	1	93	-	-	-	-	-	1	4	6
👤 Donyell Malen	0	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	False	15	17	F	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Emiliano Buendía	0	1	-	-	5	3	-	2	False	69	10	M	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	24	1	29	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	1
👤 Emiliano Martínez	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	False	90	23	G	7	False	0	1	4	-	-	29	-	35	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Ezri Konsa	0	-	-	-	5	5	-	4	False	90	4	D	7.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	92	-	99	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
👤 George Hemmings	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	53	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Ian Maatsen	0	2	2	1	7	3	-	1	False	69	22	D	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	33	-	35	-	-	-	-	2	-	2	1
👤 Jadon Sancho	0	1	-	-	1	-	-	-	False	21	19	F	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	6	-	7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jamaldeen Jimoh	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	20	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 John McGinn	0	3	-	-	7	3	-	1	True	83	7	M	8.3	False	0	0	-	2	-	35	-	44	-	-	-	2	2	1	1	2
👤 Lamare Bogarde	1	-	-	-	4	3	1	3	False	15	26	M	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	2	-	2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Lucas Digne	0	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	False	21	12	D	6.6	True	0	0	-	-	-	5	1	5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Marco Bizot	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	40	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Matty Cash	0	1	-	1	4	3	1	1	False	89	2	D	7.3	False	1	0	-	-	1	58	1	63	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 Morgan Rogers	0	2	2	-	13	3	2	3	False	90	27	M	6.9	False	1	0	-	-	-	36	2	43	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Ollie Watkins	0	-	-	-	5	3	2	-	False	83	11	F	7.9	False	0	0	-	1	-	6	-	12	-	-	-	2	2	-	-	2
👤 TJ Carroll	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	71	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Victor Lindelöf	0	-	-	-	4	4	-	-	False	90	3	D	7	False	0	0	-	-	-	68	-	70	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
👤 Youri Tielemans	0	-	1	-	10	4	2	-	False	90	8	M	7.9	False	1	0	-	-	-	98	1	107	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	4

Nottingham Forest — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Arnaud Kalimuendo	0	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	False	14	15	F	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Dilane Bakwa	1	-	1	-	5	2	2	2	False	69	29	M	6.2	False	1	0	-	-	-	10	1	16	-	-	-	-	2	-	-	-
👤 Douglas Luiz	0	-	-	-	1	-	1	-	False	14	12	M	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	5	-	7	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 Elliot Anderson	0	2	-	2	14	7	2	2	False	90	8	M	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	24	-	31	-	-	-	-	-	1	3	2
👤 Igor Jesus	0	1	-	1	15	3	5	-	False	83	19	F	6	False	0	0	-	-	2	5	-	6	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 James McAtee	1	-	-	-	2	1	1	-	False	21	24	M	6.2	True	0	0	-	-	1	2	-	3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 John Victor	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	78	13	G	5.3	False	0	3	1	-	-	12	-	22	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Matz Sels	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	False	12	26	G	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	5	-	7	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Morato	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	4	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Morgan Gibbs-White	0	1	-	-	10	5	3	2	True	90	10	M	7.7	False	0	0	-	1	-	16	2	22	-	-	-	2	2	-	2	2
👤 Murillo	0	3	-	3	7	5	1	-	False	90	5	D	6.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	20	-	27	-	-	-	-	-	2	2	1
👤 Neco Williams	0	1	-	1	8	5	2	1	False	90	3	D	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	16	1	21	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	3
👤 Nicolás Domínguez	0	-	2	-	11	6	1	1	False	83	16	M	7.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	16	1	20	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	5
👤 Nicolò Savona	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	21	37	D	6.2	True	0	0	-	-	-	7	-	7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Nikola Milenković	0	-	-	-	7	4	2	1	False	90	31	D	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	10	-	17	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	2
👤 Ola Aina	0	-	1	-	5	2	-	-	False	69	34	D	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	9	1	13	-	-	-	1	1	-	3	2
👤 Oleksandr Zinchenko	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	35	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Omari Hutchinson	0	2	-	1	5	2	-	-	False	90	21	M	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	13	1	20	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	1
👤 Taiwo Awoniyi	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	9	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Zach Abbott	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	44	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

League standings

Full table

Teams in this match: Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal		34	22	7	5	64	26	38	73	W W L L W
2	Manchester City		33	21	7	5	66	29	37	70	D D W W W
3	Manchester United		34	17	10	7	60	46	14	61	W D L W W
4	Liverpool		34	17	7	10	57	44	13	58	D L W W W
5	Aston Villa	3-1	34	17	7	10	47	42	5	58	L W D W L
6	Brighton		34	13	11	10	48	39	9	50	W W W D W
7	Bournemouth		34	11	16	7	52	52	0	49	D D W W D
8	Chelsea		34	13	9	12	53	45	8	48	L L L L L
9	Brentford		34	13	9	12	49	46	3	48	D D D D L
10	Fulham		34	14	6	14	44	46	-2	48	D W L D W
11	Everton		34	13	8	13	41	41	0	47	L W D L L
12	Sunderland		34	12	10	12	36	45	-9	46	L W W L L
13	Crystal Palace		33	11	10	12	36	39	-3	43	W D W D L
14	Newcastle		34	12	6	16	46	50	-4	42	W L L L L
15	Leeds		34	9	13	12	44	51	-7	40	D D W W D
16	Nottingham Forest	3-1	34	10	9	15	41	45	-4	39	D W D W W
17	West Ham		34	9	9	16	42	58	-16	36	D L W D W
18	Tottenham		34	8	10	16	43	53	-10	34	D L L D W
19	Burnley		34	4	8	22	34	68	-34	20	D L L L L
20	Wolves		34	3	8	23	24	62	-38	17	W D L L L

Promotion - Champions League (League phase)

Promotion - Europa League (League phase)

Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs)

Relegation - Championship

Our prediction i

Full predictions

Teams in this match: Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest

#	Team	MP	Pred Pts	Pred #
1	Arsenal	34	80	1
2	Manchester City	33	79	2
3	Manchester United	34	67	3
4	Liverpool	34	65	4
5	Aston Villa	34	63	5
6	Brighton	34	55	8
7	Bournemouth	34	54	9
8	Chelsea	34	55	8
9	Brentford	34	53	9
10	Fulham	34	53	10
11	Everton	34	52	11
12	Sunderland	34	50	12
13	Crystal Palace	33	48	13
14	Newcastle	34	49	13
15	Leeds	34	46	15
16	Nottingham Forest	34	44	15
17	West Ham	34	40	17
18	Tottenham	34	39	17
19	Burnley	34	24	19
20	Wolves	34	22	20

Promotion - Champions League (League phase)

Promotion - Europa League (League phase)

Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs)

Relegation - Championship

Predict the score

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CatBoost Prediction

Model not available yet. Run train_catboost to train a model.

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

41.0%

Home Win

27.6%

Draw

31.4%

Away Win

Expected Goals

Aston Villa 1.49

Nottingham Forest 1.28

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

Aston Villa

Nottingham Forest

Villa Park

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)