Marseille vs Ajax - Football Platform

UEFA Champions League

Marseille

HT: 3–0

Ajax

30 Sep 2025

21:00

Orange Vélodrome

Stadium

Orange Vélodrome

Marseille

Score Summary

Marseille

4 0

FT HT 3–0

Ajax

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

52% Win

Marseille 1511 1518 ▲ 7

48% Win

Ajax 1495 1490 ▼ -5

xPi Expected win probability

53% Win

Marseille 0.05 0.28 ▲ 0.23

32% Win

Ajax -0.01 -0.11 ▼ -0.10

Top Performers

Top Rated

Igor Paixão

Marseille

9.7

9.7 rating · 62 min

Most Clinical

Igor Paixão

Marseille

9.7

2 goals

Best Creator

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang

Marseille

8.9

3 key passes · 2 assists

Defensive Leader

Nayef Aguerd

Marseille

6.9

1 tackles · 3 interceptions

Match Momentum

Marseille 75% Ajax 25%

Key Stats Snapshot

48 Possession 52

9 Shots 13

6 On Target 2

Form Context

Marseille

L W W L L

Ajax

L L W W L

Smart Insight

Marseille controlled momentum for most phases of play.
Ajax produced more shot pressure than expected.
Elo movement favors Marseille after this result.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 39.3%

Draw 25.6%

Away Win 35.1%

Expected Goals 1.64 - 1.54

Standings (Top 6)

Full table

#	Team	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal	24	W W W W W
2	Bayern München	21	W L W W W
3	Liverpool	18	W L W W W
4	Tottenham	17	W L W W W
5	Barcelona	16	D L W W W
6	Chelsea	16	D W L W W

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

48 Possession 52

6 Shots 2

9 Shots 13

0 Offsides 2

2 Shots Off Goal 5

6 Shots On Goal 2

9 Total Shots 13

48 Ball Possession 52

415 Passes Accurate 454

481 Total Passes 517

86% Passes % 88%

1 Blocked Shots 6

2 Goalkeeper Saves 2

18 Fouls 12

0 Red Cards 0

2 Yellow Cards 3

0 Corner Kicks 7

5 Shots Insidebox 7

4 Shots Outsidebox 6

1.13 expected_goals 0.80

-1 goals_prevented -1

Marseille — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Amine Gouiri	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	9	F	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Amir Murillo	0	-	-	-	2	1	1	-	False	8	62	D	6.6	True	0	-	-	-	1	1	2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Angel Gomes	0	-	-	-	3	2	1	1	False	28	8	M	6.3	True	0	-	-	-	17	-	21	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Arthur Vermeeren	0	1	2	1	8	4	1	2	False	82	18	M	7	False	1	-	-	-	53	1	56	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
👤 Benjamin Pavard	0	-	-	-	6	3	3	-	False	90	28	D	6.9	False	0	-	-	-	33	-	36	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Bilal Nadir	0	-	-	-	4	2	1	1	False	45	26	M	6.3	False	0	-	-	-	15	-	16	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Conrad Jaden Egan-Riley	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	False	54	4	D	7	True	0	-	-	-	36	-	38	-	-	-	-	-	2	2	1
👤 Emerson Palmieri	0	2	1	-	7	2	1	-	False	90	33	D	6.7	False	0	-	-	-	26	-	34	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 Facundo Medina	0	-	-	-	2	2	-	2	False	36	32	D	6.9	False	0	-	-	-	26	-	31	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Gerónimo Rulli	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	1	G	7.9	False	0	2	-	-	38	-	52	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Igor Paixão	0	-	-	-	6	1	2	1	False	62	14	M	9.7	False	1	-	2	-	13	1	14	-	-	-	2	2	-	-	-
👤 Jeffrey de Lange	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	12	G	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jelle Van Neck	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	40	G	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Leonardo Balerdi	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	5	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Mason Greenwood	0	4	1	1	13	5	3	1	False	90	10	M	8.2	False	0	-	1	-	26	1	29	-	-	-	3	4	-	-	3
👤 Matt O'Riley	0	-	1	-	2	1	-	-	False	62	17	M	6.7	False	0	-	-	-	25	-	29	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1
👤 Nayef Aguerd	1	-	-	-	4	2	2	-	False	90	21	D	6.9	False	0	-	-	-	63	-	70	-	-	-	-	-	1	3	1
👤 Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang	0	1	-	1	8	5	1	3	True	90	97	F	8.9	False	2	-	1	-	12	3	18	-	-	-	1	2	-	-	1
👤 Pierre-Emile Højbjerg	1	1	-	-	3	1	1	-	False	28	23	M	6.9	True	0	-	-	-	20	1	22	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-
👤 Robinio Vaz	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	34	F	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Timothy Weah	0	-	-	-	2	-	1	-	False	45	22	F	6.7	True	0	-	-	-	11	-	13	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-

Ajax — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Anton Gaaei	1	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	False	35	3	D	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	17	-	21	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Davy Klaassen	0	1	-	1	4	2	1	-	True	90	18	M	5.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	15	1	19	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1
👤 Don-Angelo Konadu	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	19	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Gerald Alders	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	41	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jorthy Mokio	0	2	-	1	11	8	2	3	False	67	24	D	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	56	1	59	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	3
👤 Josip Šutalo	0	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	False	35	37	D	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	25	1	29	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 Kenneth Taylor	0	1	-	1	10	7	2	5	False	90	8	M	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	36	1	39	-	-	-	1	2	-	2	-
👤 Kian Fitz-Jim	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	28	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Ko Itakura	1	-	-	-	6	3	3	-	False	90	4	D	5.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	62	-	67	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 Lucas Rosa	1	-	-	-	10	6	2	2	False	90	2	D	5.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	49	2	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	2
👤 Mika Godts	0	1	1	1	6	2	-	1	False	84	11	F	7	False	0	0	-	-	-	23	1	27	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Oliver Edvardsen	0	-	-	-	7	4	-	3	False	45	17	F	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	6	-	9	-	-	-	1	2	-	1	1
👤 Oscar Gloukh	0	2	1	1	6	2	-	1	False	90	10	F	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	1	32	2	38	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Owen Wijndal	0	-	-	-	3	1	1	-	False	55	5	D	5.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	20	-	24	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
👤 Paul Reverson	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	52	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Rayane Bounida	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	43	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Raúl Moro	0	1	-	-	2	1	-	1	False	8	7	F	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	1	1	-	1	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Remko Pasveer	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	22	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Steven Berghuis	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	False	45	23	F	6	False	0	0	-	-	-	19	-	26	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Vítězslav Jaroš	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	1	G	5.7	False	0	4	2	-	-	27	-	34	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Youri Baas	0	1	-	-	2	1	-	1	False	55	15	D	5.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	42	-	45	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	-
👤 Youri Regeer	0	-	1	-	2	1	-	-	False	23	6	M	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	24	-	25	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

League standings

Full table

Teams in this match: Marseille and Ajax

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal		8	8	0	0	23	4	19	24	W W W W W
2	Bayern München		8	7	0	1	22	8	14	21	W L W W W
3	Liverpool		8	6	0	2	20	8	12	18	W L W W W
4	Tottenham		8	5	2	1	17	7	10	17	W L W W W
5	Barcelona		8	5	1	2	22	14	8	16	D L W W W
6	Chelsea		8	5	1	2	17	10	7	16	D W L W W
7	Sporting CP		8	5	1	2	17	11	6	16	D W L W W
8	Manchester City		8	5	1	2	15	9	6	16	W L W L W
9	Real Madrid		8	5	0	3	21	12	9	15	L W L W L
10	Inter		8	5	0	3	15	7	8	15	W L L L W
11	Paris Saint Germain		8	4	2	2	21	11	10	14	L W D L D
12	Newcastle		8	4	2	2	17	7	10	14	W L D W D
13	Juventus		8	3	4	1	14	10	4	13	D W W W D
14	Atletico Madrid		8	4	1	3	17	15	2	13	W W W D L
15	Atalanta		8	4	1	3	10	10	0	13	W W W L L
16	Bayer Leverkusen		8	3	3	2	13	14	-1	12	W W D L W
17	Borussia Dortmund		8	3	2	3	19	17	2	11	L W D L L
18	Olympiakos Piraeus		8	3	2	3	10	14	-4	11	D L W W W
19	Club Brugge KV		8	3	1	4	15	17	-2	10	D L L W W
20	Galatasaray		8	3	1	4	9	11	-2	10	W L L D L
21	Monaco		8	2	4	2	8	14	-6	10	W D W L D
22	Qarabag		8	3	1	4	13	21	-8	10	D L L W L
23	Bodo/Glimt		8	2	3	3	14	15	-1	9	L L D W W
24	Benfica		8	3	0	5	10	12	-2	9	L W W L W
25	Marseille	4-0	8	3	0	5	11	14	-3	9	L W W L L
26	Pafos		8	2	3	3	8	11	-3	9	W D L L W
27	Union St. Gilloise		8	3	0	5	8	17	-9	9	L W L L W
28	PSV Eindhoven		8	2	2	4	16	16	0	8	D W L L L
29	Athletic Club		8	2	2	4	9	14	-5	8	L D D W L
30	Napoli		8	2	2	4	9	15	-6	8	D W L D L
31	FC Copenhagen		8	2	2	4	12	21	-9	8	L W W D L
32	Ajax	4-0	8	2	0	6	8	21	-13	6	L L W W L
33	Eintracht Frankfurt		8	1	1	6	10	21	-11	4	D L L L L
34	Slavia Praha		8	0	3	5	5	19	-14	3	L D L L L
35	Villarreal		8	0	1	7	5	18	-13	1	L L L L L
36	Kairat Almaty		8	0	1	7	7	22	-15	1	L L L L L

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Our prediction i

Full predictions

Teams in this match: Marseille and Ajax

#	Team	MP	Pred Pts	Pred #
1	Arsenal	8	27	1
2	Bayern München	8	22	2
3	Liverpool	8	18	3
4	Tottenham	8	17	4
5	Barcelona	8	16	5
6	Chelsea	8	16	6
7	Sporting CP	8	16	7
8	Manchester City	8	16	8
9	Real Madrid	8	15	10
10	Inter	8	15	11
11	Paris Saint Germain	8	15	9
12	Newcastle	8	14	12
13	Juventus	8	13	13
14	Atletico Madrid	8	13	13
15	Atalanta	8	13	15
16	Bayer Leverkusen	8	12	16
17	Borussia Dortmund	8	11	17
18	Olympiakos Piraeus	8	11	18
19	Club Brugge KV	8	10	19
20	Galatasaray	8	10	20
21	Monaco	8	10	21
22	Qarabag	8	10	22
23	Bodo/Glimt	8	9	23
24	Benfica	8	9	24
25	Marseille	8	9	25
26	Pafos	8	9	26
27	Union St. Gilloise	8	9	27
28	PSV Eindhoven	8	8	28
29	Athletic Club	8	8	29
30	Napoli	8	8	30
31	FC Copenhagen	8	8	31
32	Ajax	8	6	32
33	Eintracht Frankfurt	8	4	33
34	Slavia Praha	8	3	34
35	Villarreal	8	1	35
36	Kairat Almaty	8	1	36

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Predict the score

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CatBoost Prediction

Model not available yet. Run train_catboost to train a model.

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

39.3%

Home Win

25.6%

Draw

35.1%

Away Win

Expected Goals

Marseille 1.64

Ajax 1.54

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

Marseille

Ajax

Orange Vélodrome

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)