Benfica vs Real Madrid - Football Platform

UEFA Champions League

Real Madrid

Coach : Z. Zidane

50' Vinicius Junior

17 Feb 2026

21:00

Estádio da Luz

First Leg Second Leg

Aggregate 1 - 3

Score Summary

Benfica

0 1

FT HT 0–0

Real Madrid

50' Vinicius Junior

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

36% Win

Benfica 1508 1501 ▼ -7

64% Win

Real Madrid 1610 1617 ▲ 7

xPi Expected win probability

37% Win

Benfica 0.20 0.28 ▲ 0.08

40% Win

Real Madrid 0.88 0.83 ▼ -0.06

Top Performers

Top Rated

Dean Huijsen

Real Madrid

8.3

8.3 rating · 90 min

Most Clinical

Vinícius Júnior

Real Madrid

7.7

1 goals

Best Creator

Trent Alexander-Arnold

Real Madrid

7.3

2 key passes · 0 assists

Defensive Leader

Aurélien Tchouaméni

Real Madrid

7.3

3 tackles · 4 interceptions

Match Momentum

Benfica 30% Real Madrid 70%

Key Stats Snapshot

42 Possession 58

10 Shots 16

3 On Target 7

Form Context

Benfica

L W W L W

Real Madrid

L W L W L

Smart Insight

Real Madrid carried stronger momentum across the match profile.
Real Madrid produced more shot pressure than expected.
Elo movement favors Real Madrid after this result.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 35.4%

Draw 25.6%

Away Win 39.0%

Expected Goals 1.55 - 1.63

Qualification %

Benfica 0.0%

Real Madrid 100.0%

Based on 5000 simulations

Standings (Top 6)

Full table

#	Team	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal	24	W W W W W
2	Bayern München	21	W L W W W
3	Liverpool	18	W L W W W
4	Tottenham	17	W L W W W
5	Barcelona	16	D L W W W
6	Chelsea	16	D W L W W

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

42 Possession 58

3 Shots 7

10 Shots 16

1 Offsides 1

4 Shots Off Goal 4

3 Shots On Goal 7

10 Total Shots 16

42 Ball Possession 58

355 Passes Accurate 549

444 Total Passes 624

80% Passes % 88%

3 Blocked Shots 5

6 Goalkeeper Saves 3

6 Fouls 9

0 Red Cards 0

2 Yellow Cards 2

3 Corner Kicks 6

4 Shots Insidebox 11

6 Shots Outsidebox 5

0.47 expected_goals 0.89

0 goals_prevented 0

Benfica — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Alexander Bah	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	6	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Amar Dedić	0	4	-	2	16	8	3	1	False	90	17	D	7	False	0	0	-	-	-	30	1	41	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	4
👤 Anatoliy Trubin	0	-	-	-	2	2	-	-	False	90	1	G	7.9	False	0	1	6	-	-	11	-	17	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Andreas Schjelderup	0	2	-	1	2	1	-	-	False	74	21	M	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	20	-	27	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	-
👤 António Silva	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	4	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Anísio Cabral	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	72	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Bruma	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	7	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Diogo Ferreira	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	50	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Dodi Lukebakio	0	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	False	9	11	F	6.5	True	0	0	-	-	-	3	-	6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Enzo Barrenechea	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	5	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Franjo Ivanović	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	9	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Fredrik Aursnes	0	-	-	-	2	-	-	-	False	80	8	M	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	49	1	56	-	-	-	1	1	1	1	-
👤 Georgiy Sudakov	1	-	-	-	3	1	1	-	False	16	10	M	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	8	-	10	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Gianluca Prestianni	1	2	1	1	11	3	1	-	False	81	25	M	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	13	-	18	-	-	-	-	2	-	-	2
👤 Leandro Barreiro	0	-	1	-	11	6	1	1	False	90	18	M	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	45	-	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	4
👤 Manuel Silva	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	16	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Nicolás Otamendi	0	-	-	-	3	3	-	1	True	90	30	D	7	False	0	0	-	-	-	35	-	38	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	1
👤 Rafa Silva	0	3	1	1	10	4	-	2	False	74	27	M	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	1	17	-	22	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	1
👤 Richard Ríos	0	-	-	-	3	2	-	1	False	16	20	M	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	11	1	12	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Samuel Dahl	0	1	-	1	5	4	-	1	False	90	26	D	7	False	0	0	-	-	-	50	1	61	-	-	-	-	-	2	1	2
👤 Sidny Lopes Cabral	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	10	15	D	6.6	True	0	0	-	-	-	7	-	7	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Tomás Araújo	0	-	1	-	7	5	-	-	False	90	44	D	7.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	38	-	49	-	-	-	1	1	1	2	4
👤 Vangelis Pavlidis	0	1	-	1	8	3	-	-	False	90	14	F	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	18	-	26	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1

Real Madrid — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Andriy Lunin	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	13	G	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Antonio Rüdiger	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	False	90	22	D	7.3	False	0	-	-	-	58	-	64	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 Arda Güler	0	-	1	-	4	2	-	1	False	86	15	M	7.2	False	0	-	-	-	40	1	46	-	-	-	2	3	-	-	1
👤 Aurélien Tchouaméni	0	1	1	-	11	8	1	-	False	90	14	M	7.3	False	0	-	-	-	45	1	54	-	-	-	-	-	1	4	3
👤 Brahim Díaz	0	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	False	18	21	M	6.3	True	0	-	-	-	2	-	3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Dani Ceballos	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	19	M	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Daniel Carvajal	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	1	2	D	-	True	0	-	-	-	1	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 David Alaba	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	4	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Dean Huijsen	0	-	-	-	12	8	-	-	False	90	24	D	8.3	False	0	-	-	-	87	-	98	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	5
👤 Eduardo Camavinga	0	1	1	-	17	6	3	-	False	89	6	M	6.9	False	0	-	-	-	48	2	50	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	6
👤 Federico Valverde	0	1	1	1	7	5	1	-	True	90	8	M	7.2	False	0	-	-	-	61	2	71	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	2
👤 Ferland Mendy	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	23	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Fran García	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	20	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Franco Mastantuono	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	30	F	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Gonzalo García	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	16	F	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Joan Martínez	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	36	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jorge Cestero	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	28	M	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Kylian Mbappé	1	5	-	-	7	-	-	-	False	90	10	F	5.9	False	1	-	-	-	27	1	33	-	-	-	2	4	-	-	-
👤 Thiago Pitarch	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	10	45	M	6.7	True	0	-	-	-	8	-	8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Thibaut Courtois	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	1	G	7.2	False	0	3	-	-	27	-	29	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Trent Alexander-Arnold	0	1	2	-	5	2	-	-	False	90	12	D	7.3	False	0	-	-	-	56	2	63	-	-	-	-	-	-	3	1
👤 Vinícius Júnior	1	4	-	1	13	6	2	4	False	90	7	F	7.7	False	0	-	1	1	27	1	32	-	-	-	3	4	-	-	-
👤 Álvaro Carreras	0	3	1	2	6	4	2	-	False	89	18	D	7.3	False	0	-	-	-	62	1	72	-	-	-	-	-	1	2	1

League standings

Full table

Teams in this match: Benfica and Real Madrid

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal		8	8	0	0	23	4	19	24	W W W W W
2	Bayern München		8	7	0	1	22	8	14	21	W L W W W
3	Liverpool		8	6	0	2	20	8	12	18	W L W W W
4	Tottenham		8	5	2	1	17	7	10	17	W L W W W
5	Barcelona		8	5	1	2	22	14	8	16	D L W W W
6	Chelsea		8	5	1	2	17	10	7	16	D W L W W
7	Sporting CP		8	5	1	2	17	11	6	16	D W L W W
8	Manchester City		8	5	1	2	15	9	6	16	W L W L W
9	Real Madrid	0-1	8	5	0	3	21	12	9	15	L W L W L
10	Inter		8	5	0	3	15	7	8	15	W L L L W
11	Paris Saint Germain		8	4	2	2	21	11	10	14	L W D L D
12	Newcastle		8	4	2	2	17	7	10	14	W L D W D
13	Juventus		8	3	4	1	14	10	4	13	D W W W D
14	Atletico Madrid		8	4	1	3	17	15	2	13	W W W D L
15	Atalanta		8	4	1	3	10	10	0	13	W W W L L
16	Bayer Leverkusen		8	3	3	2	13	14	-1	12	W W D L W
17	Borussia Dortmund		8	3	2	3	19	17	2	11	L W D L L
18	Olympiakos Piraeus		8	3	2	3	10	14	-4	11	D L W W W
19	Club Brugge KV		8	3	1	4	15	17	-2	10	D L L W W
20	Galatasaray		8	3	1	4	9	11	-2	10	W L L D L
21	Monaco		8	2	4	2	8	14	-6	10	W D W L D
22	Qarabag		8	3	1	4	13	21	-8	10	D L L W L
23	Bodo/Glimt		8	2	3	3	14	15	-1	9	L L D W W
24	Benfica	0-1	8	3	0	5	10	12	-2	9	L W W L W
25	Marseille		8	3	0	5	11	14	-3	9	L W W L L
26	Pafos		8	2	3	3	8	11	-3	9	W D L L W
27	Union St. Gilloise		8	3	0	5	8	17	-9	9	L W L L W
28	PSV Eindhoven		8	2	2	4	16	16	0	8	D W L L L
29	Athletic Club		8	2	2	4	9	14	-5	8	L D D W L
30	Napoli		8	2	2	4	9	15	-6	8	D W L D L
31	FC Copenhagen		8	2	2	4	12	21	-9	8	L W W D L
32	Ajax		8	2	0	6	8	21	-13	6	L L W W L
33	Eintracht Frankfurt		8	1	1	6	10	21	-11	4	D L L L L
34	Slavia Praha		8	0	3	5	5	19	-14	3	L D L L L
35	Villarreal		8	0	1	7	5	18	-13	1	L L L L L
36	Kairat Almaty		8	0	1	7	7	22	-15	1	L L L L L

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Our prediction i

Full predictions

Teams in this match: Benfica and Real Madrid

#	Team	MP	Pred Pts	Pred #
1	Arsenal	8	27	1
2	Bayern München	8	22	2
3	Liverpool	8	18	3
4	Tottenham	8	17	4
5	Barcelona	8	16	5
6	Chelsea	8	16	6
7	Sporting CP	8	16	7
8	Manchester City	8	16	8
9	Real Madrid	8	15	10
10	Inter	8	15	11
11	Paris Saint Germain	8	15	9
12	Newcastle	8	14	12
13	Juventus	8	13	13
14	Atletico Madrid	8	13	13
15	Atalanta	8	13	15
16	Bayer Leverkusen	8	12	16
17	Borussia Dortmund	8	11	17
18	Olympiakos Piraeus	8	11	18
19	Club Brugge KV	8	10	19
20	Galatasaray	8	10	20
21	Monaco	8	10	21
22	Qarabag	8	10	22
23	Bodo/Glimt	8	9	23
24	Benfica	8	9	24
25	Marseille	8	9	25
26	Pafos	8	9	26
27	Union St. Gilloise	8	9	27
28	PSV Eindhoven	8	8	28
29	Athletic Club	8	8	29
30	Napoli	8	8	30
31	FC Copenhagen	8	8	31
32	Ajax	8	6	32
33	Eintracht Frankfurt	8	4	33
34	Slavia Praha	8	3	34
35	Villarreal	8	1	35
36	Kairat Almaty	8	1	36

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Predict the score

Loading API predictions…

CatBoost Prediction

Model not available yet. Run train_catboost to train a model.

Qualification Prediction Based on 5000 simulations

Benfica

0.0%

Real Madrid

100.0%

Match Type: Two-leg tie

First leg: Benfica 0-1 Real Madrid

Current aggregate: 3-1

Method: Monte Carlo (Dixon-Coles + Elo fallback, elo-weighted ET/PEN)

How was this calculated?

We simulate this knockout matchup using scoreline probabilities from Dixon-Coles where available, with an Elo fallback when needed. For two-leg ties we aggregate both legs and count who advances; for single-match knockouts and aggregate-level ties we resolve the shootout step with an elo-weighted draw rather than a 50/50 flip.

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

35.4%

Home Win

25.6%

Draw

39.0%

Away Win

Expected Goals

Benfica 1.55

Real Madrid 1.63

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

Benfica

Real Madrid

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Qualification %

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)