Qarabag vs Newcastle - Football Platform

UEFA Champions League

Newcastle

18 Feb 2026

18:45

Tofiq Bahramov Stadium

First Leg Second Leg

Aggregate 3 - 9

Score Summary

Qarabag

1 6

FT HT 0–5

Newcastle

E. Cafarquliyev 54'

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

46% Win

Qarabag 1503 1494 ▼ -9

54% Win

Newcastle 1532 1541 ▲ 9

xPi Expected win probability

37% Win

Qarabag -0.45 -0.69 ▼ -0.24

41% Win

Newcastle 0.43 0.22 ▼ -0.20

Top Performers

Top Rated

Anthony Gordon

Newcastle

10.0

10.0 rating · 68 min

Most Clinical

Anthony Gordon

Newcastle

10.0

4 goals

Best Creator

Abdellah Zoubir

Qarabag

6.5

3 key passes · 1 assists

Defensive Leader

Lewis Hall

Newcastle

6.9

4 tackles · 2 interceptions

Match Momentum

Qarabag 12% Newcastle 88%

Key Stats Snapshot

42 Possession 58

8 Shots 22

2 On Target 14

Form Context

Qarabag

D L L W L

Newcastle

W L D W D

Smart Insight

Newcastle carried stronger momentum across the match profile.
Newcastle produced more shot pressure than expected.
Elo movement favors Newcastle after this result.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 35.9%

Draw 25.6%

Away Win 38.4%

Expected Goals 1.56 - 1.62

Qualification %

Qarabag 0.0%

Newcastle 100.0%

Based on 5000 simulations

Standings (Top 6)

Full table

#	Team	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal	24	W W W W W
2	Bayern München	21	W L W W W
3	Liverpool	18	W L W W W
4	Tottenham	17	W L W W W
5	Barcelona	16	D L W W W
6	Chelsea	16	D W L W W

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

42 Possession 58

2 Shots 14

8 Shots 22

0 Offsides 1

3 Shots Off Goal 3

2 Shots On Goal 14

8 Total Shots 22

42 Ball Possession 58

293 Passes Accurate 432

349 Total Passes 485

84% Passes % 89%

3 Blocked Shots 5

8 Goalkeeper Saves 1

10 Fouls 10

0 Red Cards 0

0 Yellow Cards 1

8 Corner Kicks 6

4 Shots Insidebox 18

4 Shots Outsidebox 4

0.46 expected_goals 5.69

0 goals_prevented 0

Qarabag — Player Statistics

Player	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Abbas Hüseynov	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	30	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Abdellah Zoubir	2	-	-	3	1	-	1	True	85	10	M	6.5	False	1	0	-	-	-	42	3	45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Amin Ramazanov	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	89	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Bahlul Mustafazada	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	False	22	13	D	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	8	-	8	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-
👤 Bədavi Hüseynov	-	-	-	2	1	1	1	False	45	55	D	6.2	True	0	0	-	-	-	12	1	15	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	-
👤 Camilo Duran	-	-	-	9	3	-	1	False	88	17	F	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	13	1	14	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Dani Bolt	1	3	-	8	4	-	-	False	68	18	D	5.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	11	-	17	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	4
👤 Elvin Jafarguliyev	1	3	1	6	3	-	1	False	90	44	D	6.5	False	0	0	-	1	-	25	-	28	-	-	-	1	1	1	-	1
👤 Emmanuel Addai	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	False	9	11	F	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	1	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Fabijan Buntić	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	97	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Hikmat Cabrayilzada	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	32	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Joni Montiel	2	2	1	9	3	2	-	False	85	9	M	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	32	-	37	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	1
👤 Kady Borges	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	9	20	M	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	4	1	5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Kevin Medina	1	-	-	6	3	-	-	False	90	81	D	5.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	36	-	47	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	3
👤 Leandro Andrade	-	1	-	2	1	-	-	False	45	15	M	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	5	-	9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Marko Janković	2	-	2	10	5	2	1	False	90	8	M	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	38	-	41	-	-	-	-	2	-	3	2
👤 Mateusz Kochalski	-	1	-	4	2	1	1	False	90	99	G	7	False	0	6	8	-	-	11	-	16	1	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Matheus Silva	3	2	2	10	5	1	1	False	90	2	D	4.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	25	-	31	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Musa Qurbanlı	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	False	2	22	F	-	True	0	0	-	-	-	2	-	2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Oleksiy Kashchuk	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	21	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Pedro Bicalho	2	3	2	15	5	3	2	False	90	35	M	6	False	0	0	-	-	-	28	-	33	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1
👤 Samy Mmaee	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	3	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Toral Bayramov	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	27	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Newcastle — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.scored	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Aaron Ramsdale	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	32	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Aidan Harris	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	58	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Alex Murphy	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	37	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Anthony Elanga	0	1	1	1	8	3	1	2	False	68	20	M	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	15	2	25	-	-	0	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Anthony Gordon	0	2	-	2	5	4	1	1	False	68	10	F	10	False	0	0	-	4	-	17	2	20	-	-	2	1	6	6	-	1	1
👤 Dan Burn	0	-	1	-	9	4	1	-	False	90	33	D	7.2	False	1	0	-	-	-	60	1	66	-	-	0	-	2	2	2	2	-
👤 Harvey Barnes	0	4	1	2	9	6	-	-	False	87	11	M	6.7	False	1	0	-	-	-	22	3	25	-	-	0	-	3	3	-	-	4
👤 Jacob Murphy	0	1	-	1	1	1	-	-	False	22	23	M	8.2	True	0	0	-	1	-	14	1	15	-	-	0	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Jacob Ramsey	0	1	-	-	1	-	-	-	False	22	41	M	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	14	-	14	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Joe Willock	0	1	-	1	7	4	1	-	False	68	28	M	7.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	25	1	27	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	3
👤 Joelinton	0	-	2	-	2	-	-	-	False	13	7	M	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	1	6	-	6	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 John Ruddy	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	26	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Kieran Trippier	0	-	1	-	3	1	1	-	True	77	2	D	7.3	False	1	0	-	-	-	46	2	53	-	-	0	-	-	-	1	-	1
👤 Leo Shahar	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	61	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Lewis Hall	0	6	-	5	15	10	-	1	False	90	3	D	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	46	1	55	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	2	4
👤 Malick Thiaw	1	-	-	-	6	4	2	-	False	90	12	D	7.9	False	0	0	-	1	-	58	-	60	-	-	0	-	1	2	-	-	1
👤 Nick Pope	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	1	G	5.9	False	0	1	1	-	-	14	-	15	-	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Nick Woltemade	0	2	2	2	9	5	1	2	False	90	27	M	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	26	-	30	-	-	0	-	-	1	-	1	-
👤 Sandro Tonali	0	-	-	-	8	4	2	2	False	90	8	M	7.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	65	1	69	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	2	2
👤 Sean Neave	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	False	3	62	F	-	True	0	0	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 William Osula	0	2	-	1	3	2	-	1	False	22	18	F	6.6	True	0	0	-	-	-	4	-	5	-	-	0	-	1	1	-	1	-

League standings

Full table

Teams in this match: Qarabag and Newcastle

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal		8	8	0	0	23	4	19	24	W W W W W
2	Bayern München		8	7	0	1	22	8	14	21	W L W W W
3	Liverpool		8	6	0	2	20	8	12	18	W L W W W
4	Tottenham		8	5	2	1	17	7	10	17	W L W W W
5	Barcelona		8	5	1	2	22	14	8	16	D L W W W
6	Chelsea		8	5	1	2	17	10	7	16	D W L W W
7	Sporting CP		8	5	1	2	17	11	6	16	D W L W W
8	Manchester City		8	5	1	2	15	9	6	16	W L W L W
9	Real Madrid		8	5	0	3	21	12	9	15	L W L W L
10	Inter		8	5	0	3	15	7	8	15	W L L L W
11	Paris Saint Germain		8	4	2	2	21	11	10	14	L W D L D
12	Newcastle	1-6	8	4	2	2	17	7	10	14	W L D W D
13	Juventus		8	3	4	1	14	10	4	13	D W W W D
14	Atletico Madrid		8	4	1	3	17	15	2	13	W W W D L
15	Atalanta		8	4	1	3	10	10	0	13	W W W L L
16	Bayer Leverkusen		8	3	3	2	13	14	-1	12	W W D L W
17	Borussia Dortmund		8	3	2	3	19	17	2	11	L W D L L
18	Olympiakos Piraeus		8	3	2	3	10	14	-4	11	D L W W W
19	Club Brugge KV		8	3	1	4	15	17	-2	10	D L L W W
20	Galatasaray		8	3	1	4	9	11	-2	10	W L L D L
21	Monaco		8	2	4	2	8	14	-6	10	W D W L D
22	Qarabag	1-6	8	3	1	4	13	21	-8	10	D L L W L
23	Bodo/Glimt		8	2	3	3	14	15	-1	9	L L D W W
24	Benfica		8	3	0	5	10	12	-2	9	L W W L W
25	Marseille		8	3	0	5	11	14	-3	9	L W W L L
26	Pafos		8	2	3	3	8	11	-3	9	W D L L W
27	Union St. Gilloise		8	3	0	5	8	17	-9	9	L W L L W
28	PSV Eindhoven		8	2	2	4	16	16	0	8	D W L L L
29	Athletic Club		8	2	2	4	9	14	-5	8	L D D W L
30	Napoli		8	2	2	4	9	15	-6	8	D W L D L
31	FC Copenhagen		8	2	2	4	12	21	-9	8	L W W D L
32	Ajax		8	2	0	6	8	21	-13	6	L L W W L
33	Eintracht Frankfurt		8	1	1	6	10	21	-11	4	D L L L L
34	Slavia Praha		8	0	3	5	5	19	-14	3	L D L L L
35	Villarreal		8	0	1	7	5	18	-13	1	L L L L L
36	Kairat Almaty		8	0	1	7	7	22	-15	1	L L L L L

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Our prediction i

Full predictions

Teams in this match: Qarabag and Newcastle

#	Team	MP	Pred Pts	Pred #
1	Arsenal	8	27	1
2	Bayern München	8	22	2
3	Liverpool	8	18	3
4	Tottenham	8	17	4
5	Barcelona	8	16	5
6	Chelsea	8	16	6
7	Sporting CP	8	16	7
8	Manchester City	8	16	8
9	Real Madrid	8	15	10
10	Inter	8	15	11
11	Paris Saint Germain	8	15	9
12	Newcastle	8	14	12
13	Juventus	8	13	13
14	Atletico Madrid	8	13	13
15	Atalanta	8	13	15
16	Bayer Leverkusen	8	12	16
17	Borussia Dortmund	8	11	17
18	Olympiakos Piraeus	8	11	18
19	Club Brugge KV	8	10	19
20	Galatasaray	8	10	20
21	Monaco	8	10	21
22	Qarabag	8	10	22
23	Bodo/Glimt	8	9	23
24	Benfica	8	9	24
25	Marseille	8	9	25
26	Pafos	8	9	26
27	Union St. Gilloise	8	9	27
28	PSV Eindhoven	8	8	28
29	Athletic Club	8	8	29
30	Napoli	8	8	30
31	FC Copenhagen	8	8	31
32	Ajax	8	6	32
33	Eintracht Frankfurt	8	4	33
34	Slavia Praha	8	3	34
35	Villarreal	8	1	35
36	Kairat Almaty	8	1	36

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Predict the score

Loading API predictions…

CatBoost Prediction

Model not available yet. Run train_catboost to train a model.

Qualification Prediction Based on 5000 simulations

Qarabag

0.0%

Newcastle

100.0%

Match Type: Two-leg tie

First leg: Qarabag 1-6 Newcastle

Current aggregate: 9-3

Method: Monte Carlo (Dixon-Coles + Elo fallback, elo-weighted ET/PEN)

How was this calculated?

We simulate this knockout matchup using scoreline probabilities from Dixon-Coles where available, with an Elo fallback when needed. For two-leg ties we aggregate both legs and count who advances; for single-match knockouts and aggregate-level ties we resolve the shootout step with an elo-weighted draw rather than a 50/50 flip.

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

35.9%

Home Win

25.6%

Draw

38.4%

Away Win

Expected Goals

Qarabag 1.56

Newcastle 1.62

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

Qarabag

Newcastle

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Qualification %

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)