Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund - Football Platform

UEFA Champions League

Borussia Dortmund

25 Feb 2026

18:45

New Balance Arena

First Leg Second Leg

Aggregate 4 - 3

Score Summary

Atalanta

4 1

FT HT 2–0

Borussia Dortmund

75' K. Adeyemi

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

44% Win

Atalanta 1550 1562 ▲ 11

56% Win

Borussia Dortmund 1593 1582 ▼ -11

xPi Expected win probability

55% Win

Atalanta 0.24 0.37 ▲ 0.13

31% Win

Borussia Dortmund 0.49 0.66 ▲ 0.16

Top Performers

Top Rated

Davide Zappacosta

Atalanta

8.2

8.2 rating · 90 min

Most Clinical

Davide Zappacosta

Atalanta

8.2

1 goals

Best Creator

Carney Chukwuemeka

Borussia Dortmund

6.9

2 key passes · 1 assists

Defensive Leader

Ramy Bensebaini

Borussia Dortmund

7.2

8 tackles · 2 interceptions

Match Momentum

Atalanta 69% Borussia Dortmund 31%

Key Stats Snapshot

44 Possession 56

15 Shots 7

9 On Target 4

Form Context

Atalanta

W W W L L

Borussia Dortmund

L W D L L

Smart Insight

Atalanta controlled momentum for most phases of play.
Atalanta generated the clearer shot volume edge.
Elo movement favors Atalanta after this result.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 50.0%

Draw 24.5%

Away Win 25.4%

Expected Goals 1.88 - 1.30

Qualification %

Atalanta 100.0%

Borussia Dortmund 0.0%

Based on 5000 simulations

Standings (Top 6)

Full table

#	Team	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal	24	W W W W W
2	Bayern München	21	W L W W W
3	Liverpool	18	W L W W W
4	Tottenham	17	W L W W W
5	Barcelona	16	D L W W W
6	Chelsea	16	D W L W W

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

44 Possession 56

9 Shots 4

15 Shots 7

2 Offsides 2

4 Shots Off Goal 2

9 Shots On Goal 4

15 Total Shots 7

44 Ball Possession 56

310 Passes Accurate 414

394 Total Passes 515

79% Passes % 80%

2 Blocked Shots 1

3 Goalkeeper Saves 4

17 Fouls 10

1 Red Cards 2

1 Yellow Cards 5

5 Corner Kicks 1

13 Shots Insidebox 7

2 Shots Outsidebox 0

2.93 expected_goals 0.93

0 goals_prevented 0

Atalanta — Player Statistics

Player	cards.red	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.scored	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Berat Djimsiti	0	0	-	-	-	2	1	1	1	False	13	19	D	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	7	1	7	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Davide Zappacosta	0	0	4	-	2	11	6	1	1	False	90	77	M	8.2	False	0	0	-	1	-	30	1	37	-	-	0	-	1	1	-	2	3
👤 Dominic Vavassori	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	45	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Francesco Rossi	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	31	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Gianluca Scamacca	0	0	-	1	-	10	5	1	1	False	72	9	F	7.7	False	0	0	-	1	1	11	2	18	-	-	0	-	1	2	-	-	1
👤 Giorgio Scalvini	1	0	-	1	-	8	6	1	2	False	77	42	D	7	False	0	0	-	-	-	34	1	41	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	3
👤 Honest Ahanor	0	0	-	1	-	7	5	1	1	False	17	69	D	6.6	True	0	0	-	-	-	6	-	6	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	4
👤 Isak Hien	0	1	-	-	-	11	7	2	-	False	90	4	D	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	28	1	36	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	4	1
👤 Kamaldeen Sulemana	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	14	7	F	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	1	-	2	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Lazar Samardžić	0	0	5	2	2	19	3	4	1	False	90	10	F	7	False	0	0	-	1	-	30	2	31	-	-	1	-	1	2	-	-	-
👤 Lorenzo Bernasconi	0	0	1	-	-	3	1	1	-	False	90	47	M	6.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	29	1	40	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Marco Carnesecchi	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	29	G	6.9	False	0	1	3	-	-	17	-	35	-	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Marco Sportiello	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	57	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Mario Pašalić	0	0	1	-	1	6	2	-	-	False	90	8	M	7.9	False	0	0	-	1	-	36	1	41	-	-	0	-	2	2	-	-	1
👤 Marten de Roon	0	0	-	2	-	10	3	1	-	True	90	15	M	7.3	False	1	0	-	-	-	28	1	38	-	-	0	-	1	1	-	1	2
👤 Mitchel Bakker	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	5	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Nicola Zalewski	0	0	4	-	2	14	8	-	2	False	85	59	F	7	False	0	0	-	-	-	23	-	27	-	-	0	-	2	3	-	1	4
👤 Nikola Krstović	0	0	-	-	-	5	1	3	1	False	18	90	F	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	3	-	3	-	-	0	1	1	2	-	-	-
👤 Odilon Kossounou	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	3	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Raoul Bellanova	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	16	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Sead Kolašinac	0	0	1	-	1	3	2	1	-	False	73	23	D	7.3	False	0	0	-	-	1	27	1	32	-	-	0	-	-	-	1	1	1
👤 Yunus Musah	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	6	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Éderson	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	13	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-

Borussia Dortmund — Player Statistics

Player	cards.red	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Alexander Meyer	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	33	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Carney Chukwuemeka	0	0	2	-	1	2	1	-	-	False	30	17	M	6.9	True	1	0	-	-	-	21	2	21	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Daniel Svensson	0	0	1	2	1	9	6	1	1	False	90	24	M	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	30	1	41	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
👤 Elias Benkara	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	47	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Emre Can	0	1	-	2	-	9	5	1	1	True	90	23	D	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	34	-	44	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	3
👤 Felix Nmecha	0	0	2	-	-	4	1	-	1	False	90	8	M	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	50	-	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Fábio Silva	0	1	-	-	-	7	4	1	3	False	30	21	F	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	11	-	14	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	1
👤 Gregor Kobel	0	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	False	90	1	G	6.9	False	0	4	4	-	-	28	-	35	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jobe Bellingham	0	0	-	1	-	3	-	1	-	False	70	7	M	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	35	-	38	-	-	-	-	-	2	1	-
👤 Julian Brandt	0	0	3	1	3	7	6	-	1	False	60	10	F	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	1	15	-	20	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Julian Ryerson	0	1	-	-	-	5	3	1	1	False	70	26	M	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	14	1	20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Karim Adeyemi	0	0	2	-	-	5	1	1	1	False	20	27	F	7.2	True	0	0	-	1	-	8	-	10	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Luca Reggiani	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	49	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Marcel Sabitzer	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	20	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Maximilian Beier	0	0	3	-	1	6	2	-	-	False	60	14	F	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	7	2	10	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	1
👤 Nico Schlotterbeck	1	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	4	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Ramy Bensebaini	1	2	1	2	1	22	16	3	3	False	90	5	D	7.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	78	-	95	1	-	-	-	-	1	2	8
👤 Salih Özcan	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	6	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Samuele Inacio	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	40	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Serhou Guirassy	0	0	-	-	-	15	7	-	1	False	90	9	F	6	False	0	0	-	-	1	27	1	35	-	-	-	1	2	-	-	-
👤 Silas Ostrzinski	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	31	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Waldemar Anton	0	0	-	-	-	12	6	1	1	False	90	3	D	5.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	52	-	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	3	2
👤 Yan Couto	0	0	-	-	-	2	-	-	-	False	20	2	D	6.2	True	0	0	-	-	-	4	-	6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

League standings

Full table

Teams in this match: Atalanta and Borussia Dortmund

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal		8	8	0	0	23	4	19	24	W W W W W
2	Bayern München		8	7	0	1	22	8	14	21	W L W W W
3	Liverpool		8	6	0	2	20	8	12	18	W L W W W
4	Tottenham		8	5	2	1	17	7	10	17	W L W W W
5	Barcelona		8	5	1	2	22	14	8	16	D L W W W
6	Chelsea		8	5	1	2	17	10	7	16	D W L W W
7	Sporting CP		8	5	1	2	17	11	6	16	D W L W W
8	Manchester City		8	5	1	2	15	9	6	16	W L W L W
9	Real Madrid		8	5	0	3	21	12	9	15	L W L W L
10	Inter		8	5	0	3	15	7	8	15	W L L L W
11	Paris Saint Germain		8	4	2	2	21	11	10	14	L W D L D
12	Newcastle		8	4	2	2	17	7	10	14	W L D W D
13	Juventus		8	3	4	1	14	10	4	13	D W W W D
14	Atletico Madrid		8	4	1	3	17	15	2	13	W W W D L
15	Atalanta	4-1	8	4	1	3	10	10	0	13	W W W L L
16	Bayer Leverkusen		8	3	3	2	13	14	-1	12	W W D L W
17	Borussia Dortmund	4-1	8	3	2	3	19	17	2	11	L W D L L
18	Olympiakos Piraeus		8	3	2	3	10	14	-4	11	D L W W W
19	Club Brugge KV		8	3	1	4	15	17	-2	10	D L L W W
20	Galatasaray		8	3	1	4	9	11	-2	10	W L L D L
21	Monaco		8	2	4	2	8	14	-6	10	W D W L D
22	Qarabag		8	3	1	4	13	21	-8	10	D L L W L
23	Bodo/Glimt		8	2	3	3	14	15	-1	9	L L D W W
24	Benfica		8	3	0	5	10	12	-2	9	L W W L W
25	Marseille		8	3	0	5	11	14	-3	9	L W W L L
26	Pafos		8	2	3	3	8	11	-3	9	W D L L W
27	Union St. Gilloise		8	3	0	5	8	17	-9	9	L W L L W
28	PSV Eindhoven		8	2	2	4	16	16	0	8	D W L L L
29	Athletic Club		8	2	2	4	9	14	-5	8	L D D W L
30	Napoli		8	2	2	4	9	15	-6	8	D W L D L
31	FC Copenhagen		8	2	2	4	12	21	-9	8	L W W D L
32	Ajax		8	2	0	6	8	21	-13	6	L L W W L
33	Eintracht Frankfurt		8	1	1	6	10	21	-11	4	D L L L L
34	Slavia Praha		8	0	3	5	5	19	-14	3	L D L L L
35	Villarreal		8	0	1	7	5	18	-13	1	L L L L L
36	Kairat Almaty		8	0	1	7	7	22	-15	1	L L L L L

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Our prediction i

Full predictions

Teams in this match: Atalanta and Borussia Dortmund

#	Team	MP	Pred Pts	Pred #
1	Arsenal	8	27	1
2	Bayern München	8	22	2
3	Liverpool	8	18	3
4	Tottenham	8	17	4
5	Barcelona	8	16	5
6	Chelsea	8	16	6
7	Sporting CP	8	16	7
8	Manchester City	8	16	8
9	Real Madrid	8	15	10
10	Inter	8	15	11
11	Paris Saint Germain	8	15	9
12	Newcastle	8	14	12
13	Juventus	8	13	13
14	Atletico Madrid	8	13	13
15	Atalanta	8	13	15
16	Bayer Leverkusen	8	12	16
17	Borussia Dortmund	8	11	17
18	Olympiakos Piraeus	8	11	18
19	Club Brugge KV	8	10	19
20	Galatasaray	8	10	20
21	Monaco	8	10	21
22	Qarabag	8	10	22
23	Bodo/Glimt	8	9	23
24	Benfica	8	9	24
25	Marseille	8	9	25
26	Pafos	8	9	26
27	Union St. Gilloise	8	9	27
28	PSV Eindhoven	8	8	28
29	Athletic Club	8	8	29
30	Napoli	8	8	30
31	FC Copenhagen	8	8	31
32	Ajax	8	6	32
33	Eintracht Frankfurt	8	4	33
34	Slavia Praha	8	3	34
35	Villarreal	8	1	35
36	Kairat Almaty	8	1	36

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Predict the score

Loading API predictions…

CatBoost Prediction

Model not available yet. Run train_catboost to train a model.

Qualification Prediction Based on 5000 simulations

Atalanta

100.0%

Borussia Dortmund

0.0%

Match Type: Two-leg tie

First leg: Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Atalanta

Current aggregate: 3-4

Method: Monte Carlo (Dixon-Coles + Elo fallback, elo-weighted ET/PEN)

How was this calculated?

We simulate this knockout matchup using scoreline probabilities from Dixon-Coles where available, with an Elo fallback when needed. For two-leg ties we aggregate both legs and count who advances; for single-match knockouts and aggregate-level ties we resolve the shootout step with an elo-weighted draw rather than a 50/50 flip.

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

50.0%

Home Win

24.5%

Draw

25.4%

Away Win

Expected Goals

Atalanta 1.88

Borussia Dortmund 1.30

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

Atalanta

Borussia Dortmund

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Qualification %

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)