Atalanta vs Bayern München - Football Platform

UEFA Champions League

Bayern München

Coach : V. Kompany

10 Mar 2026

21:00

New Balance Arena

First Leg Second Leg

Aggregate 2 - 10

Score Summary

Atalanta

1 6

FT HT 0–3

Bayern München

M. Pasalic 90'

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

32% Win

Atalanta 1548 1541 ▼ -7

68% Win

Bayern München 1676 1682 ▲ 7

xPi Expected win probability

34% Win

Atalanta 0.37 0.37 ▼ 0.00

49% Win

Bayern München 1.41 1.57 ▲ 0.16

Top Performers

Top Rated

Michael Olise

Bayern München

10.0

10.0 rating · 90 min

Most Clinical

Michael Olise

Bayern München

10.0

2 goals

Best Creator

Michael Olise

Bayern München

10.0

8 key passes · 1 assists

Defensive Leader

Sead Kolašinac

Atalanta

6.0

5 tackles · 1 interceptions

Match Momentum

Atalanta 19% Bayern München 81%

Key Stats Snapshot

31 Possession 69

11 Shots 25

3 On Target 13

Form Context

Atalanta

W W W L L

Bayern München

W L W W W

Smart Insight

Bayern München carried stronger momentum across the match profile.
Bayern München produced more shot pressure than expected.
Elo movement favors Bayern München after this result.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 29.3%

Draw 25.1%

Away Win 45.7%

Expected Goals 1.41 - 1.79

Qualification %

Atalanta 0.0%

Bayern München 100.0%

Based on 5000 simulations

Standings (Top 6)

Full table

#	Team	Scr	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal		24	W W W W W
2	Bayern München	1-6	21	W L W W W
3	Liverpool		18	W L W W W
4	Tottenham		17	W L W W W
5	Barcelona		16	D L W W W
6	Chelsea		16	D W L W W

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

31 Possession 69

3 Shots 13

11 Shots 25

1 Offsides 1

4 Shots Off Goal 8

3 Shots On Goal 13

11 Total Shots 25

31 Ball Possession 69

228 Passes Accurate 632

293 Total Passes 688

78% Passes % 92%

4 Blocked Shots 4

6 Goalkeeper Saves 2

11 Fouls 11

0 Red Cards 0

1 Yellow Cards 3

2 Corner Kicks 7

8 Shots Insidebox 18

3 Shots Outsidebox 7

1.68 expected_goals 4.84

1 goals_prevented 1

Atalanta — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Berat Djimsiti	0	-	-	-	3	2	1	-	False	45	19	D	6.6	True	0	0	-	-	-	20	1	23	-	-	-	-	1	1	3	-
👤 Davide Zappacosta	0	3	1	2	6	4	-	1	False	67	77	D	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	14	2	16	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Dominic Vavassori	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	45	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Federico Cassa	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	48	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Francesco Rossi	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	31	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Gianluca Scamacca	0	-	-	-	5	3	2	1	False	45	9	F	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	3	-	7	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	1
👤 Honest Ahanor	0	-	1	-	2	1	-	1	False	35	69	D	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	7	-	7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Isak Hien	0	1	1	-	5	1	1	-	False	90	4	D	4.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	17	-	19	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	1
👤 Kamaldeen Sulemana	0	2	1	1	10	4	1	2	False	73	7	M	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	11	-	16	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Lazar Samardžić	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	17	10	M	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	6	-	8	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 Lorenzo Bernasconi	0	-	1	-	3	1	1	-	False	90	47	D	5.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	17	1	20	-	-	-	-	-	1	3	1
👤 Marco Carnesecchi	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	29	G	7.9	False	0	6	6	-	-	12	-	26	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Marco Sportiello	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	57	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Mario Pašalić	0	1	1	-	5	3	-	-	False	90	8	M	6.6	False	0	0	-	1	-	26	1	29	-	-	-	1	2	-	-	2
👤 Marten de Roon	0	-	3	-	9	4	1	-	True	90	15	M	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	36	-	43	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	4
👤 Mitchel Bakker	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	5	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Nicola Zalewski	0	-	1	-	4	3	-	2	False	55	59	M	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	9	-	17	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1
👤 Nikola Krstović	0	-	-	-	15	6	1	3	False	90	90	F	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	1	12	1	21	-	-	-	2	2	-	-	-
👤 Odilon Kossounou	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	3	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Raoul Bellanova	0	-	1	-	2	-	1	-	False	23	16	D	7.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	11	1	11	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Sead Kolašinac	0	-	-	-	9	8	1	1	False	55	23	D	6	False	0	0	-	-	-	16	-	19	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	5
👤 Yunus Musah	1	1	-	1	3	1	1	-	False	35	6	M	6.5	True	0	0	-	-	-	11	1	11	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-

Bayern München — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Aleksandar Pavlović	0	-	-	-	3	2	-	1	False	68	45	M	7.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	76	1	79	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	1
👤 Alphonso Davies	0	1	-	-	2	1	-	-	False	26	19	D	7.2	True	1	0	-	-	-	13	1	13	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1
👤 Dayot Upamecano	0	1	-	-	14	6	4	1	False	90	2	D	7.2	False	1	0	-	-	-	74	1	85	-	-	-	-	2	1	-	1
👤 Harry Kane	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	9	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jamal Musiala	0	1	-	-	2	-	1	-	False	45	10	M	6.3	True	0	0	-	1	-	17	-	19	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	-
👤 Jonas Urbig	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	40	G	7.9	False	0	1	2	-	-	34	-	39	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jonathan Tah	0	-	-	-	7	4	1	-	False	90	4	D	7.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	77	-	79	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	1
👤 Joshua Kimmich	1	1	-	-	4	2	-	1	True	90	6	M	7.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	93	3	101	-	-	-	1	2	-	1	-
👤 Josip Stanišić	0	2	-	2	4	3	-	1	False	86	44	D	7.9	False	0	0	-	1	-	28	3	32	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	-
👤 Kim Min-jae	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	3	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Konrad Laimer	1	-	2	-	12	6	3	2	False	45	27	D	7.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	28	-	29	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	4
👤 Lennart Karl	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	42	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Leon Goretzka	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	False	22	8	M	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	13	-	14	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 Leonard Prescott	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	37	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Luis Díaz	0	9	-	8	13	10	-	2	False	90	14	M	7	False	1	0	-	-	-	53	2	57	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Michael Olise	1	2	1	1	4	2	-	1	False	90	17	M	10	False	1	0	-	2	1	55	8	63	-	-	-	4	5	-	-	-
👤 Nicolas Jackson	0	2	1	-	7	1	-	-	False	90	11	F	8	False	1	0	-	1	-	24	1	30	-	-	-	3	5	-	-	-
👤 Raphaël Guerreiro	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	9	22	D	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	7	-	7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Serge Gnabry	0	2	-	-	7	1	2	1	False	45	7	M	8.5	False	1	0	-	1	-	26	1	27	-	-	-	2	3	-	-	-
👤 Sven Ulreich	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	26	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Tom Bischof	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	False	19	20	M	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	14	-	14	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

League standings

Full table

Teams in this match: Atalanta and Bayern München

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal		8	8	0	0	23	4	19	24	W W W W W
2	Bayern München	1-6	8	7	0	1	22	8	14	21	W L W W W
3	Liverpool		8	6	0	2	20	8	12	18	W L W W W
4	Tottenham		8	5	2	1	17	7	10	17	W L W W W
5	Barcelona		8	5	1	2	22	14	8	16	D L W W W
6	Chelsea		8	5	1	2	17	10	7	16	D W L W W
7	Sporting CP		8	5	1	2	17	11	6	16	D W L W W
8	Manchester City		8	5	1	2	15	9	6	16	W L W L W
9	Real Madrid		8	5	0	3	21	12	9	15	L W L W L
10	Inter		8	5	0	3	15	7	8	15	W L L L W
11	Paris Saint Germain		8	4	2	2	21	11	10	14	L W D L D
12	Newcastle		8	4	2	2	17	7	10	14	W L D W D
13	Juventus		8	3	4	1	14	10	4	13	D W W W D
14	Atletico Madrid		8	4	1	3	17	15	2	13	W W W D L
15	Atalanta	1-6	8	4	1	3	10	10	0	13	W W W L L
16	Bayer Leverkusen		8	3	3	2	13	14	-1	12	W W D L W
17	Borussia Dortmund		8	3	2	3	19	17	2	11	L W D L L
18	Olympiakos Piraeus		8	3	2	3	10	14	-4	11	D L W W W
19	Club Brugge KV		8	3	1	4	15	17	-2	10	D L L W W
20	Galatasaray		8	3	1	4	9	11	-2	10	W L L D L
21	Monaco		8	2	4	2	8	14	-6	10	W D W L D
22	Qarabag		8	3	1	4	13	21	-8	10	D L L W L
23	Bodo/Glimt		8	2	3	3	14	15	-1	9	L L D W W
24	Benfica		8	3	0	5	10	12	-2	9	L W W L W
25	Marseille		8	3	0	5	11	14	-3	9	L W W L L
26	Pafos		8	2	3	3	8	11	-3	9	W D L L W
27	Union St. Gilloise		8	3	0	5	8	17	-9	9	L W L L W
28	PSV Eindhoven		8	2	2	4	16	16	0	8	D W L L L
29	Athletic Club		8	2	2	4	9	14	-5	8	L D D W L
30	Napoli		8	2	2	4	9	15	-6	8	D W L D L
31	FC Copenhagen		8	2	2	4	12	21	-9	8	L W W D L
32	Ajax		8	2	0	6	8	21	-13	6	L L W W L
33	Eintracht Frankfurt		8	1	1	6	10	21	-11	4	D L L L L
34	Slavia Praha		8	0	3	5	5	19	-14	3	L D L L L
35	Villarreal		8	0	1	7	5	18	-13	1	L L L L L
36	Kairat Almaty		8	0	1	7	7	22	-15	1	L L L L L

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Our prediction i

Full predictions

Teams in this match: Atalanta and Bayern München

#	Team	MP	Pred Pts	Pred #
1	Arsenal	8	27	1
2	Bayern München	8	22	2
3	Liverpool	8	18	3
4	Tottenham	8	17	4
5	Barcelona	8	16	5
6	Chelsea	8	16	6
7	Sporting CP	8	16	7
8	Manchester City	8	16	8
9	Real Madrid	8	15	10
10	Inter	8	15	11
11	Paris Saint Germain	8	15	9
12	Newcastle	8	14	12
13	Juventus	8	13	13
14	Atletico Madrid	8	13	13
15	Atalanta	8	13	15
16	Bayer Leverkusen	8	12	16
17	Borussia Dortmund	8	11	17
18	Olympiakos Piraeus	8	11	18
19	Club Brugge KV	8	10	19
20	Galatasaray	8	10	20
21	Monaco	8	10	21
22	Qarabag	8	10	22
23	Bodo/Glimt	8	9	23
24	Benfica	8	9	24
25	Marseille	8	9	25
26	Pafos	8	9	26
27	Union St. Gilloise	8	9	27
28	PSV Eindhoven	8	8	28
29	Athletic Club	8	8	29
30	Napoli	8	8	30
31	FC Copenhagen	8	8	31
32	Ajax	8	6	32
33	Eintracht Frankfurt	8	4	33
34	Slavia Praha	8	3	34
35	Villarreal	8	1	35
36	Kairat Almaty	8	1	36

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Predict the score

Loading API predictions…

CatBoost Prediction

Model not available yet. Run train_catboost to train a model.

Qualification Prediction Based on 5000 simulations

Atalanta

0.0%

Bayern München

100.0%

Match Type: Two-leg tie

First leg: Atalanta 1-6 Bayern München

Current aggregate: 10-2

Method: Monte Carlo (Dixon-Coles + Elo fallback, elo-weighted ET/PEN)

How was this calculated?

We simulate this knockout matchup using scoreline probabilities from Dixon-Coles where available, with an Elo fallback when needed. For two-leg ties we aggregate both legs and count who advances; for single-match knockouts and aggregate-level ties we resolve the shootout step with an elo-weighted draw rather than a 50/50 flip.

Our predictions

xpi

Home Win 47.2%

Draw 18.3%

Away Win 34.5%

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

29.3%

Home Win

25.1%

Draw

45.7%

Away Win

Expected Goals

Atalanta 1.41

Bayern München 1.79

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

Atalanta

Bayern München

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Qualification %

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

xpi

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)