Paris Saint Germain vs Chelsea

UEFA Champions League

Chelsea

11 Mar 2026

21:00

Parc des Princes

First Leg Second Leg

Aggregate 8 - 2

Stadium

Parc des Princes

Paris, France

Capacity: 47929 Surface: grass Address: 24, rue du Commandant Guilbaud

Score Summary

Paris Saint Germain

5 2

FT HT 2–1

Chelsea

28' M. Gusto
57' E. Fernandez

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

50% Win

Paris Saint Germain 1591 1601 ▲ 10

50% Win

Chelsea 1588 1578 ▼ -10

xPi Expected win probability

37% Win

Paris Saint Germain 1.21 1.38 ▲ 0.17

38% Win

Chelsea 0.86 0.81 ▼ -0.06

Top Performers

Top Rated

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia

Paris Saint Germain

9.3

9.3 rating · 28 min

Most Clinical

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia

Paris Saint Germain

9.3

2 goals

Best Creator

Désiré Doué

Paris Saint Germain

6.3

2 key passes · 1 assists

Defensive Leader

João Neves

Paris Saint Germain

7.7

7 tackles · 3 interceptions

Match Momentum

Paris Saint Germain 67% Chelsea 33%

Key Stats Snapshot

58 Possession 42

9 Shots 9

8 On Target 4

Form Context

Paris Saint Germain

L W D L D

Chelsea

D W L W W

Smart Insight

Paris Saint Germain controlled momentum for most phases of play.
Elo movement favors Paris Saint Germain after this result.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 37.1%

Draw 25.5%

Away Win 37.4%

Expected Goals 1.60 - 1.60

Qualification %

Paris Saint Germain 100.0%

Chelsea 0.0%

Based on 5000 simulations

Standings (Top 6)

Full table

#	Team	Scr	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal		24	W W W W W
2	Bayern München		21	W L W W W
3	Liverpool		18	W L W W W
4	Tottenham		17	W L W W W
5	Barcelona		16	D L W W W
6	Chelsea	5-2	16	D W L W W

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

58 Possession 42

8 Shots 4

9 Shots 9

2 Offsides 2

0 Shots Off Goal 3

8 Shots On Goal 4

9 Total Shots 9

58 Ball Possession 42

518 Passes Accurate 350

587 Total Passes 419

88% Passes % 84%

1 Blocked Shots 2

2 Goalkeeper Saves 3

14 Fouls 7

0 Red Cards 0

1 Yellow Cards 0

2 Corner Kicks 3

6 Shots Insidebox 8

3 Shots Outsidebox 1

0.90 expected_goals 1.57

-3 goals_prevented -3

Paris Saint Germain — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Achraf Hakimi	0	1	-	1	9	6	2	1	False	90	2	D	7.2	False	1	0	-	-	-	48	1	56	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	4
👤 Bradley Barcola	0	3	2	1	11	4	1	-	False	77	29	F	7.5	False	0	0	-	1	1	26	1	29	-	-	-	2	2	-	1	3
👤 Dro Fernández	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	27	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Désiré Doué	0	6	-	2	12	5	3	1	False	62	14	F	6.3	False	1	0	-	-	-	34	2	39	-	-	-	-	-	-	3	1
👤 Gonçalo Ramos	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	9	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Ibrahim Mbaye	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	49	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Ilya Zabarnyi	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	6	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 João Neves	0	-	-	-	10	8	-	-	False	90	87	M	7.7	False	1	0	-	-	-	47	1	51	-	-	-	1	1	-	3	7
👤 Kang-in Lee	0	-	1	-	3	-	-	-	False	21	19	M	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	5	-	6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Khvicha Kvaratskhelia	1	4	-	1	8	2	1	1	False	28	7	F	9.3	True	1	0	-	2	-	4	1	4	-	-	-	2	2	-	-	-
👤 Lucas Beraldo	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	4	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Lucas Chevalier	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	30	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Lucas Hernández	0	-	-	-	2	2	-	1	False	12	21	D	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	5	-	7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Marquinhos	0	-	-	-	3	1	1	-	True	90	5	D	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	62	-	70	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-
👤 Matvey Safonov	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	False	90	39	G	5.5	False	0	2	2	-	-	19	-	23	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Nuno Mendes	0	2	2	1	7	2	1	-	False	90	25	D	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	1	46	-	55	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	1
👤 Ousmane Dembélé	0	-	-	-	1	-	1	-	False	69	10	F	7.6	False	0	0	-	1	-	33	-	40	-	-	-	2	2	-	-	-
👤 Renato Marin	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	89	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Senny Mayulu	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	13	24	M	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	4	-	4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Vitinha	0	-	2	-	8	3	1	1	False	90	17	M	7.9	False	0	0	-	1	-	83	1	91	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	1
👤 Warren Zaïre-Emery	0	1	-	1	4	3	1	-	False	78	33	M	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	34	-	39	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Willian Pacho	0	-	-	-	9	5	2	1	False	90	51	D	6.5	False	1	0	-	-	-	68	1	73	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	4

Chelsea — Player Statistics

Player	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Alejandro Garnacho	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	2	49	F	-	True	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Andrey Santos	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	17	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Benoît Badiashile	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	5	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Cole Palmer	4	-	-	10	3	-	2	False	83	10	M	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	18	-	20	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	1
👤 Enzo Fernández	3	-	1	10	5	3	1	False	90	8	M	7.5	False	1	0	-	1	1	29	2	37	-	-	-	1	2	-	2	3
👤 Filip Jørgensen	2	-	2	2	2	-	-	False	90	12	G	4.6	False	0	5	3	-	-	40	-	56	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jorrel Hato	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	21	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Josh Acheampong	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	34	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 João Pedro	3	1	-	18	6	1	3	False	83	20	F	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	17	-	25	-	-	-	1	2	-	-	1
👤 Liam Delap	-	-	-	1	-	1	-	False	12	9	F	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Malo Gusto	2	-	2	11	8	-	1	False	88	27	D	7.3	False	0	0	-	1	-	23	1	30	-	-	-	1	1	-	3	4
👤 Mamadou Sarr	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	19	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Marc Cucurella	-	-	-	3	2	1	-	False	90	3	D	5.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	37	1	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	2
👤 Marc Guiu	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	38	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Max Merrick	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	50	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Moisés Caicedo	-	-	-	9	8	1	3	False	90	25	M	7	False	0	0	-	-	-	33	-	39	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	5
👤 Pedro Neto	2	2	1	7	2	-	-	False	90	7	M	6.2	False	1	0	-	-	-	19	2	22	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 Reece James	1	-	1	8	6	-	2	True	90	24	M	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	41	3	43	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Robert Sánchez	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	1	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Roméo Lavia	-	1	-	2	1	-	-	False	12	45	M	6.5	True	0	0	-	-	-	5	-	5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Tosin Adarabioyo	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	4	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Trevoh Chalobah	-	2	-	2	-	-	-	False	90	23	D	5.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	46	-	48	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 Wesley Fofana	-	1	-	5	3	-	1	False	90	29	D	5.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	42	-	47	-	-	-	-	-	1	2	2

League standings

Full table

Teams in this match: Paris Saint Germain and Chelsea

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal		8	8	0	0	23	4	19	24	W W W W W
2	Bayern München		8	7	0	1	22	8	14	21	W L W W W
3	Liverpool		8	6	0	2	20	8	12	18	W L W W W
4	Tottenham		8	5	2	1	17	7	10	17	W L W W W
5	Barcelona		8	5	1	2	22	14	8	16	D L W W W
6	Chelsea	5-2	8	5	1	2	17	10	7	16	D W L W W
7	Sporting CP		8	5	1	2	17	11	6	16	D W L W W
8	Manchester City		8	5	1	2	15	9	6	16	W L W L W
9	Real Madrid		8	5	0	3	21	12	9	15	L W L W L
10	Inter		8	5	0	3	15	7	8	15	W L L L W
11	Paris Saint Germain	5-2	8	4	2	2	21	11	10	14	L W D L D
12	Newcastle		8	4	2	2	17	7	10	14	W L D W D
13	Juventus		8	3	4	1	14	10	4	13	D W W W D
14	Atletico Madrid		8	4	1	3	17	15	2	13	W W W D L
15	Atalanta		8	4	1	3	10	10	0	13	W W W L L
16	Bayer Leverkusen		8	3	3	2	13	14	-1	12	W W D L W
17	Borussia Dortmund		8	3	2	3	19	17	2	11	L W D L L
18	Olympiakos Piraeus		8	3	2	3	10	14	-4	11	D L W W W
19	Club Brugge KV		8	3	1	4	15	17	-2	10	D L L W W
20	Galatasaray		8	3	1	4	9	11	-2	10	W L L D L
21	Monaco		8	2	4	2	8	14	-6	10	W D W L D
22	Qarabag		8	3	1	4	13	21	-8	10	D L L W L
23	Bodo/Glimt		8	2	3	3	14	15	-1	9	L L D W W
24	Benfica		8	3	0	5	10	12	-2	9	L W W L W
25	Marseille		8	3	0	5	11	14	-3	9	L W W L L
26	Pafos		8	2	3	3	8	11	-3	9	W D L L W
27	Union St. Gilloise		8	3	0	5	8	17	-9	9	L W L L W
28	PSV Eindhoven		8	2	2	4	16	16	0	8	D W L L L
29	Athletic Club		8	2	2	4	9	14	-5	8	L D D W L
30	Napoli		8	2	2	4	9	15	-6	8	D W L D L
31	FC Copenhagen		8	2	2	4	12	21	-9	8	L W W D L
32	Ajax		8	2	0	6	8	21	-13	6	L L W W L
33	Eintracht Frankfurt		8	1	1	6	10	21	-11	4	D L L L L
34	Slavia Praha		8	0	3	5	5	19	-14	3	L D L L L
35	Villarreal		8	0	1	7	5	18	-13	1	L L L L L
36	Kairat Almaty		8	0	1	7	7	22	-15	1	L L L L L

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Our prediction i

Full predictions

Teams in this match: Paris Saint Germain and Chelsea

#	Team	MP	Pred Pts	Pred #
1	Arsenal	8	27	1
2	Bayern München	8	22	2
3	Liverpool	8	18	3
4	Tottenham	8	17	4
5	Barcelona	8	16	5
6	Chelsea	8	16	6
7	Sporting CP	8	16	7
8	Manchester City	8	16	8
9	Real Madrid	8	15	10
10	Inter	8	15	11
11	Paris Saint Germain	8	15	9
12	Newcastle	8	14	12
13	Juventus	8	13	13
14	Atletico Madrid	8	13	13
15	Atalanta	8	13	15
16	Bayer Leverkusen	8	12	16
17	Borussia Dortmund	8	11	17
18	Olympiakos Piraeus	8	11	18
19	Club Brugge KV	8	10	19
20	Galatasaray	8	10	20
21	Monaco	8	10	21
22	Qarabag	8	10	22
23	Bodo/Glimt	8	9	23
24	Benfica	8	9	24
25	Marseille	8	9	25
26	Pafos	8	9	26
27	Union St. Gilloise	8	9	27
28	PSV Eindhoven	8	8	28
29	Athletic Club	8	8	29
30	Napoli	8	8	30
31	FC Copenhagen	8	8	31
32	Ajax	8	6	32
33	Eintracht Frankfurt	8	4	33
34	Slavia Praha	8	3	34
35	Villarreal	8	1	35
36	Kairat Almaty	8	1	36

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Predict the score

Loading API predictions…

CatBoost Prediction

Model not available yet. Run train_catboost to train a model.

Qualification Prediction Based on 5000 simulations

Paris Saint Germain

100.0%

Chelsea

0.0%

Match Type: Two-leg tie

First leg: Paris Saint Germain 5-2 Chelsea

Current aggregate: 2-8

Method: Monte Carlo (Dixon-Coles + Elo fallback, elo-weighted ET/PEN)

How was this calculated?

We simulate this knockout matchup using scoreline probabilities from Dixon-Coles where available, with an Elo fallback when needed. For two-leg ties we aggregate both legs and count who advances; for single-match knockouts and aggregate-level ties we resolve the shootout step with an elo-weighted draw rather than a 50/50 flip.

Our predictions

xpi

Home Win 33.8%

Draw 17.3%

Away Win 48.8%

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

37.1%

Home Win

25.5%

Draw

37.4%

Away Win

Expected Goals

Paris Saint Germain 1.60

Chelsea 1.60

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

Paris Saint Germain

Chelsea

Parc des Princes

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Qualification %

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

xpi

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)