Real Madrid vs Bayern München

UEFA Champions League

Bayern München

Coach : V. Kompany

41' L. Diaz
46' H. Kane
74' K. Mbappe

07 Apr 2026

21:00

Bernabéu

First Leg Second Leg

Aggregate 4 - 6

Score Summary

Real Madrid

1 2

FT HT 0–1

Bayern München

K. Mbappe 74'

41' L. Diaz
46' H. Kane

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

40% Win

Real Madrid 1628 1619 ▼ -8

60% Win

Bayern München 1696 1704 ▲ 8

xPi Expected win probability

35% Win

Real Madrid 0.82 0.83 ▲ 0.01

45% Win

Bayern München 1.57 1.57 ▲ 0.00

Top Performers

Top Rated

Manuel Neuer

Bayern München

8.9

8.9 rating · 90 min

Most Clinical

Kylian Mbappé

Real Madrid

7.9

1 goals

Best Creator

Arda Güler

Real Madrid

7.2

4 key passes · 0 assists

Defensive Leader

Dayot Upamecano

Bayern München

6.2

3 tackles · 3 interceptions

Match Momentum

Real Madrid 53% Bayern München 47%

Key Stats Snapshot

48 Possession 52

20 Shots 20

9 On Target 8

Form Context

Real Madrid

L W L W L

Bayern München

W L W W W

Smart Insight

Real Madrid controlled momentum for most phases of play.
Elo movement favors Bayern München after this result.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 29.6%

Draw 25.2%

Away Win 45.2%

Expected Goals 1.41 - 1.77

Qualification %

Real Madrid 0.0%

Bayern München 100.0%

Based on 5000 simulations

Standings (Top 6)

Full table

#	Team	Scr	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal		24	W W W W W
2	Bayern München	1-2	21	W L W W W
3	Liverpool		18	W L W W W
4	Tottenham		17	W L W W W
5	Barcelona		16	D L W W W
6	Chelsea		16	D W L W W

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

48 Possession 52

9 Shots 8

20 Shots 20

1 Offsides 2

8 Shots Off Goal 6

9 Shots On Goal 8

20 Total Shots 20

48 Ball Possession 52

386 Passes Accurate 437

454 Total Passes 493

85% Passes % 89%

3 Blocked Shots 6

5 Goalkeeper Saves 9

12 Fouls 12

0 Red Cards 0

1 Yellow Cards 4

8 Corner Kicks 11

12 Shots Insidebox 13

8 Shots Outsidebox 7

2.20 expected_goals 2.92

1 goals_prevented 1

Real Madrid — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Andriy Lunin	0	-	-	-	3	3	-	1	False	90	13	G	8	False	0	2	5	-	-	22	-	27	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Antonio Rüdiger	0	-	-	-	5	2	1	-	False	90	22	D	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	41	-	45	-	-	-	-	1	2	-	-
👤 Arda Güler	0	3	1	2	9	5	2	1	False	71	15	M	7.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	34	4	37	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	2
👤 Aurélien Tchouaméni	1	-	-	-	4	2	2	-	False	90	14	M	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	45	-	46	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	2
👤 Brahim Díaz	0	2	-	1	4	3	-	1	False	19	21	M	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	10	-	11	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	1
👤 Dani Ceballos	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	19	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Daniel Carvajal	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	2	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 David Alaba	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	4	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Dean Huijsen	0	1	-	1	6	3	1	-	False	62	24	D	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	39	-	43	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1
👤 Eduardo Camavinga	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	6	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Federico Valverde	0	4	1	2	10	5	-	-	True	90	8	M	7.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	29	2	33	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	3
👤 Fran García	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	20	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Fran González	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	26	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Franco Mastantuono	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	30	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Gonzalo García	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	16	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jude Bellingham	0	1	-	1	5	5	-	2	False	28	5	M	7.2	True	0	0	-	-	-	13	1	14	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Kylian Mbappé	0	2	-	-	6	3	-	2	False	90	10	F	7.9	False	0	0	-	1	-	19	2	22	-	-	-	4	6	-	-	1
👤 Raúl Asencio	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	17	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Thiago Pitarch	0	-	2	-	6	1	1	1	False	62	45	M	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	23	-	25	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 Trent Alexander-Arnold	0	1	-	-	4	3	-	1	False	90	12	D	7.3	False	1	0	-	-	-	36	2	52	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	2
👤 Vinícius Júnior	0	9	-	5	13	9	1	3	False	90	7	F	7.2	False	0	0	-	-	1	21	2	29	-	-	-	3	7	-	-	-
👤 Álvaro Carreras	0	2	3	2	12	5	3	-	False	90	18	D	7.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	37	2	48	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1
👤 Éder Militão	0	-	-	-	3	1	1	-	False	28	3	D	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	17	-	22	-	-	-	1	2	-	1	-

Bayern München — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Aleksandar Pavlović	0	2	1	1	11	6	1	1	False	89	45	M	7.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	72	1	78	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Alphonso Davies	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	21	19	D	6.2	True	0	0	-	-	-	4	2	4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Dayot Upamecano	0	-	1	-	12	5	2	-	False	90	2	D	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	38	-	43	-	-	-	1	1	-	3	3
👤 Harry Kane	0	1	1	-	7	3	-	2	False	90	9	F	7.9	False	0	0	-	1	1	17	1	22	-	-	-	1	2	1	1	1
👤 Hiroki Itō	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	21	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jamal Musiala	1	2	2	-	5	-	1	-	False	21	10	M	6	True	0	0	-	-	-	5	-	5	-	-	-	1	2	-	-	-
👤 Jonas Urbig	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	40	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jonathan Tah	1	-	1	-	7	2	2	-	False	90	4	D	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	39	-	40	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Joshua Kimmich	0	-	1	-	4	3	-	1	False	90	6	M	7.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	77	3	85	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Josip Stanišić	0	-	3	-	8	4	1	-	False	90	44	D	7	False	0	0	-	-	-	40	3	45	-	-	-	1	1	1	-	4
👤 Kim Min-jae	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	3	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Konrad Laimer	0	1	1	-	5	1	2	-	False	69	27	D	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	23	-	23	-	-	-	-	1	1	-	-
👤 Lennart Karl	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	42	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Leon Goretzka	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	1	8	M	-	True	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Leonard Prescott	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	37	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Luis Díaz	1	3	1	1	9	2	2	-	False	89	14	M	6.9	False	0	0	-	1	1	36	1	41	-	-	-	1	2	-	-	-
👤 Manuel Neuer	1	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	True	90	1	G	8.9	False	0	1	9	-	-	24	-	37	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Michael Olise	0	7	2	4	15	10	-	5	False	90	17	M	7.2	False	1	0	-	-	-	41	2	48	-	-	-	2	3	-	1	-
👤 Nicolas Jackson	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	11	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Raphaël Guerreiro	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	22	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Serge Gnabry	0	2	-	1	6	3	1	1	False	69	7	M	6.9	False	1	0	-	-	-	21	1	22	-	-	-	1	2	-	-	1
👤 Tom Bischof	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	1	20	M	-	True	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

League standings

Full table

Teams in this match: Real Madrid and Bayern München

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal		8	8	0	0	23	4	19	24	W W W W W
2	Bayern München	1-2	8	7	0	1	22	8	14	21	W L W W W
3	Liverpool		8	6	0	2	20	8	12	18	W L W W W
4	Tottenham		8	5	2	1	17	7	10	17	W L W W W
5	Barcelona		8	5	1	2	22	14	8	16	D L W W W
6	Chelsea		8	5	1	2	17	10	7	16	D W L W W
7	Sporting CP		8	5	1	2	17	11	6	16	D W L W W
8	Manchester City		8	5	1	2	15	9	6	16	W L W L W
9	Real Madrid	1-2	8	5	0	3	21	12	9	15	L W L W L
10	Inter		8	5	0	3	15	7	8	15	W L L L W
11	Paris Saint Germain		8	4	2	2	21	11	10	14	L W D L D
12	Newcastle		8	4	2	2	17	7	10	14	W L D W D
13	Juventus		8	3	4	1	14	10	4	13	D W W W D
14	Atletico Madrid		8	4	1	3	17	15	2	13	W W W D L
15	Atalanta		8	4	1	3	10	10	0	13	W W W L L
16	Bayer Leverkusen		8	3	3	2	13	14	-1	12	W W D L W
17	Borussia Dortmund		8	3	2	3	19	17	2	11	L W D L L
18	Olympiakos Piraeus		8	3	2	3	10	14	-4	11	D L W W W
19	Club Brugge KV		8	3	1	4	15	17	-2	10	D L L W W
20	Galatasaray		8	3	1	4	9	11	-2	10	W L L D L
21	Monaco		8	2	4	2	8	14	-6	10	W D W L D
22	Qarabag		8	3	1	4	13	21	-8	10	D L L W L
23	Bodo/Glimt		8	2	3	3	14	15	-1	9	L L D W W
24	Benfica		8	3	0	5	10	12	-2	9	L W W L W
25	Marseille		8	3	0	5	11	14	-3	9	L W W L L
26	Pafos		8	2	3	3	8	11	-3	9	W D L L W
27	Union St. Gilloise		8	3	0	5	8	17	-9	9	L W L L W
28	PSV Eindhoven		8	2	2	4	16	16	0	8	D W L L L
29	Athletic Club		8	2	2	4	9	14	-5	8	L D D W L
30	Napoli		8	2	2	4	9	15	-6	8	D W L D L
31	FC Copenhagen		8	2	2	4	12	21	-9	8	L W W D L
32	Ajax		8	2	0	6	8	21	-13	6	L L W W L
33	Eintracht Frankfurt		8	1	1	6	10	21	-11	4	D L L L L
34	Slavia Praha		8	0	3	5	5	19	-14	3	L D L L L
35	Villarreal		8	0	1	7	5	18	-13	1	L L L L L
36	Kairat Almaty		8	0	1	7	7	22	-15	1	L L L L L

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Our prediction i

Full predictions

Teams in this match: Real Madrid and Bayern München

#	Team	MP	Pred Pts	Pred #
1	Arsenal	8	27	1
2	Bayern München	8	22	2
3	Liverpool	8	18	3
4	Tottenham	8	17	4
5	Barcelona	8	16	5
6	Chelsea	8	16	6
7	Sporting CP	8	16	7
8	Manchester City	8	16	8
9	Real Madrid	8	15	10
10	Inter	8	15	11
11	Paris Saint Germain	8	15	9
12	Newcastle	8	14	12
13	Juventus	8	13	13
14	Atletico Madrid	8	13	13
15	Atalanta	8	13	15
16	Bayer Leverkusen	8	12	16
17	Borussia Dortmund	8	11	17
18	Olympiakos Piraeus	8	11	18
19	Club Brugge KV	8	10	19
20	Galatasaray	8	10	20
21	Monaco	8	10	21
22	Qarabag	8	10	22
23	Bodo/Glimt	8	9	23
24	Benfica	8	9	24
25	Marseille	8	9	25
26	Pafos	8	9	26
27	Union St. Gilloise	8	9	27
28	PSV Eindhoven	8	8	28
29	Athletic Club	8	8	29
30	Napoli	8	8	30
31	FC Copenhagen	8	8	31
32	Ajax	8	6	32
33	Eintracht Frankfurt	8	4	33
34	Slavia Praha	8	3	34
35	Villarreal	8	1	35
36	Kairat Almaty	8	1	36

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Predict the score

Loading API predictions…

CatBoost Prediction

Model not available yet. Run train_catboost to train a model.

Qualification Prediction Based on 5000 simulations

Real Madrid

0.0%

Bayern München

100.0%

Match Type: Two-leg tie

First leg: Real Madrid 1-2 Bayern München

Current aggregate: 4-6

Method: Monte Carlo (Dixon-Coles + Elo fallback, elo-weighted ET/PEN)

How was this calculated?

We simulate this knockout matchup using scoreline probabilities from Dixon-Coles where available, with an Elo fallback when needed. For two-leg ties we aggregate both legs and count who advances; for single-match knockouts and aggregate-level ties we resolve the shootout step with an elo-weighted draw rather than a 50/50 flip.

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

29.6%

Home Win

25.2%

Draw

45.2%

Away Win

Expected Goals

Real Madrid 1.41

Bayern München 1.77

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

Real Madrid

Bayern München

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Qualification %

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)