Paris Saint Germain vs Bayern München

UEFA Champions League

Bayern München

Coach : V. Kompany

28 Apr 2026

21:00

Parc des Princes

First Leg Second Leg

Aggregate 5 - 4

Stadium

Parc des Princes

Paris, France

Capacity: 47929 Surface: grass Address: 24, rue du Commandant Guilbaud

Score Summary

Paris Saint Germain

5 4

FT HT 3–2

Bayern München

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

37% Win

Paris Saint Germain 1635 1648 ▲ 13

63% Win

Bayern München 1731 1719 ▼ -13

xPi Expected win probability

37% Win

Paris Saint Germain 1.41 1.38 ▼ -0.03

39% Win

Bayern München 1.54 1.57 ▲ 0.03

Top Performers

Top Rated

Luis Díaz

Bayern München

8.7

8.7 rating · 90 min

Most Clinical

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia

Paris Saint Germain

8.5

2 goals

Best Creator

Désiré Doué

Paris Saint Germain

7.3

2 key passes · 2 assists

Defensive Leader

Dayot Upamecano

Bayern München

6.9

3 tackles · 3 interceptions

Match Momentum

Paris Saint Germain 38% Bayern München 62%

Key Stats Snapshot

43 Possession 57

12 Shots 10

5 On Target 8

Form Context

Paris Saint Germain

L W D L D

Bayern München

W L W W W

Smart Insight

Bayern München carried stronger momentum across the match profile.
Elo movement favors Paris Saint Germain after this result.

Prediction (catboost)

Home Win 38.3%

Draw 25.7%

Away Win 36.0%

Qualification %

Paris Saint Germain 66.2%

Bayern München 33.8%

Based on 5000 simulations

Standings (Top 6)

Full table

#	Team	Scr	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal		24	W W W W W
2	Bayern München	5-4	21	W L W W W
3	Liverpool		18	W L W W W
4	Tottenham		17	W L W W W
5	Barcelona		16	D L W W W
6	Chelsea		16	D W L W W

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

43 Possession 57

5 Shots 8

12 Shots 10

2 Offsides 1

3 Shots Off Goal 1

5 Shots On Goal 8

12 Total Shots 10

43 Ball Possession 57

314 Passes Accurate 423

371 Total Passes 506

85% Passes % 84%

4 Blocked Shots 1

2 Goalkeeper Saves 0

12 Fouls 10

0 Red Cards 0

3 Yellow Cards 0

2 Corner Kicks 5

10 Shots Insidebox 9

2 Shots Outsidebox 1

1.91 expected_goals 2.51

-2 goals_prevented -2

Paris Saint Germain — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.scored	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Achraf Hakimi	1	3	3	-	15	5	3	1	False	90	2	D	6	False	1	0	-	-	-	42	2	46	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Bradley Barcola	0	1	2	-	4	-	-	-	False	20	29	F	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	3	-	4	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Dro Fernández	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	27	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Désiré Doué	0	6	-	3	12	6	-	-	False	70	14	F	7.3	False	2	0	-	-	1	17	2	18	-	-	0	-	-	1	-	-	2
👤 Fabián Ruiz	1	-	1	-	6	2	2	-	False	26	8	M	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	7	-	7	-	-	0	-	-	-	1	-	2
👤 Gonçalo Ramos	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	9	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Ibrahim Mbaye	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	49	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Ilya Zabarnyi	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	6	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 João Neves	0	3	2	-	12	4	1	-	False	90	87	M	6.9	False	0	0	-	1	-	24	-	26	-	-	0	-	1	1	-	3	2
👤 Kang-in Lee	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	19	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Khvicha Kvaratskhelia	0	6	-	4	12	6	-	-	False	84	7	F	8.5	False	0	0	-	2	-	16	-	19	-	-	0	-	2	2	-	-	1
👤 Lucas Beraldo	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	4	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Lucas Chevalier	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	30	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Lucas Hernández	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	11	21	D	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	4	-	4	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 Marquinhos	1	-	4	-	8	2	2	-	True	90	5	D	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	46	-	50	-	-	0	-	-	-	1	1	1
👤 Matvey Safonov	0	-	-	-	3	2	-	-	False	90	39	G	6.5	False	0	4	2	-	-	11	-	29	-	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Nuno Mendes	0	5	4	4	13	6	1	1	False	84	25	D	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	28	-	35	-	-	0	-	-	1	-	2	1
👤 Ousmane Dembélé	0	2	-	-	3	-	1	-	False	90	10	F	8.2	False	1	0	-	2	1	7	1	8	-	-	1	-	2	3	-	-	-
👤 Renato Marin	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	89	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Senny Mayulu	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	False	11	24	M	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	2	-	3	-	-	0	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Vitinha	0	-	-	-	2	2	-	-	False	90	17	M	7.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	48	3	56	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	2	1
👤 Warren Zaïre-Emery	0	1	1	-	6	3	1	-	False	64	33	M	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	27	2	30	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	1	2
👤 Willian Pacho	0	-	-	-	7	2	3	-	False	90	51	D	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	32	-	36	1	-	0	-	-	-	1	1	-

Bayern München — Player Statistics

Player	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.scored	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Aleksandar Pavlović	1	1	-	12	8	-	1	False	89	45	M	6.9	False	1	0	-	-	1	62	2	65	-	-	0	-	-	-	2	-	6
👤 Alphonso Davies	1	1	-	5	2	1	1	False	45	19	D	5.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	23	-	24	1	-	0	-	-	-	-	1	1
👤 Dayot Upamecano	-	2	-	5	3	-	-	False	90	2	D	6.9	False	0	0	-	1	-	40	-	47	-	-	0	-	1	1	1	3	3
👤 Deniz Ofli	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	34	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Filip Pavić	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	43	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Harry Kane	1	-	1	12	8	1	3	False	90	9	F	8.6	False	1	0	-	1	-	23	2	28	-	-	1	-	3	3	-	-	1
👤 Hiroki Itō	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	21	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jamal Musiala	2	-	1	13	7	-	2	False	79	10	M	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	23	-	26	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	4
👤 Jonas Urbig	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	40	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jonathan Tah	-	-	-	2	2	-	-	False	90	4	D	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	63	-	67	-	-	0	-	-	-	1	-	-
👤 Joshua Kimmich	1	2	1	7	2	-	1	False	90	6	M	7.3	False	1	0	-	-	-	49	1	54	-	-	0	-	1	1	-	-	1
👤 Josip Stanišić	1	-	-	6	5	-	-	False	90	44	D	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	28	-	37	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	1	3
👤 Kim Min-jae	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	3	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Konrad Laimer	2	-	2	6	5	1	-	False	45	27	M	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	20	-	27	-	-	0	-	-	1	-	1	2
👤 Leon Goretzka	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	False	11	8	M	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	3	-	3	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Luis Díaz	6	-	5	14	11	1	4	False	90	14	M	8.7	False	0	0	-	1	1	37	1	42	-	-	0	1	1	1	-	1	1
👤 Manuel Neuer	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	True	90	1	G	5.3	False	0	5	-	-	-	16	-	38	-	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Michael Olise	9	5	7	20	10	-	2	False	90	17	M	7.6	False	0	0	-	1	-	35	1	46	-	-	0	-	2	2	-	-	1
👤 Nicolas Jackson	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	False	1	11	F	-	True	0	0	-	-	-	1	-	2	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Sven Ulreich	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	26	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-

League standings

Full table

Teams in this match: Paris Saint Germain and Bayern München

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal		8	8	0	0	23	4	19	24	W W W W W
2	Bayern München	5-4	8	7	0	1	22	8	14	21	W L W W W
3	Liverpool		8	6	0	2	20	8	12	18	W L W W W
4	Tottenham		8	5	2	1	17	7	10	17	W L W W W
5	Barcelona		8	5	1	2	22	14	8	16	D L W W W
6	Chelsea		8	5	1	2	17	10	7	16	D W L W W
7	Sporting CP		8	5	1	2	17	11	6	16	D W L W W
8	Manchester City		8	5	1	2	15	9	6	16	W L W L W
9	Real Madrid		8	5	0	3	21	12	9	15	L W L W L
10	Inter		8	5	0	3	15	7	8	15	W L L L W
11	Paris Saint Germain	5-4	8	4	2	2	21	11	10	14	L W D L D
12	Newcastle		8	4	2	2	17	7	10	14	W L D W D
13	Juventus		8	3	4	1	14	10	4	13	D W W W D
14	Atletico Madrid		8	4	1	3	17	15	2	13	W W W D L
15	Atalanta		8	4	1	3	10	10	0	13	W W W L L
16	Bayer Leverkusen		8	3	3	2	13	14	-1	12	W W D L W
17	Borussia Dortmund		8	3	2	3	19	17	2	11	L W D L L
18	Olympiakos Piraeus		8	3	2	3	10	14	-4	11	D L W W W
19	Club Brugge KV		8	3	1	4	15	17	-2	10	D L L W W
20	Galatasaray		8	3	1	4	9	11	-2	10	W L L D L
21	Monaco		8	2	4	2	8	14	-6	10	W D W L D
22	Qarabag		8	3	1	4	13	21	-8	10	D L L W L
23	Bodo/Glimt		8	2	3	3	14	15	-1	9	L L D W W
24	Benfica		8	3	0	5	10	12	-2	9	L W W L W
25	Marseille		8	3	0	5	11	14	-3	9	L W W L L
26	Pafos		8	2	3	3	8	11	-3	9	W D L L W
27	Union St. Gilloise		8	3	0	5	8	17	-9	9	L W L L W
28	PSV Eindhoven		8	2	2	4	16	16	0	8	D W L L L
29	Athletic Club		8	2	2	4	9	14	-5	8	L D D W L
30	Napoli		8	2	2	4	9	15	-6	8	D W L D L
31	FC Copenhagen		8	2	2	4	12	21	-9	8	L W W D L
32	Ajax		8	2	0	6	8	21	-13	6	L L W W L
33	Eintracht Frankfurt		8	1	1	6	10	21	-11	4	D L L L L
34	Slavia Praha		8	0	3	5	5	19	-14	3	L D L L L
35	Villarreal		8	0	1	7	5	18	-13	1	L L L L L
36	Kairat Almaty		8	0	1	7	7	22	-15	1	L L L L L

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Our prediction i

Full predictions

Teams in this match: Paris Saint Germain and Bayern München

#	Team	MP	Pred Pts	Pred #
1	Arsenal	8	27	1
2	Bayern München	8	22	2
3	Liverpool	8	18	3
4	Tottenham	8	17	4
5	Barcelona	8	16	5
6	Chelsea	8	16	6
7	Sporting CP	8	16	7
8	Manchester City	8	16	8
9	Real Madrid	8	15	10
10	Inter	8	15	11
11	Paris Saint Germain	8	15	9
12	Newcastle	8	14	12
13	Juventus	8	13	13
14	Atletico Madrid	8	13	13
15	Atalanta	8	13	15
16	Bayer Leverkusen	8	12	16
17	Borussia Dortmund	8	11	17
18	Olympiakos Piraeus	8	11	18
19	Club Brugge KV	8	10	19
20	Galatasaray	8	10	20
21	Monaco	8	10	21
22	Qarabag	8	10	22
23	Bodo/Glimt	8	9	23
24	Benfica	8	9	24
25	Marseille	8	9	25
26	Pafos	8	9	26
27	Union St. Gilloise	8	9	27
28	PSV Eindhoven	8	8	28
29	Athletic Club	8	8	29
30	Napoli	8	8	30
31	FC Copenhagen	8	8	31
32	Ajax	8	6	32
33	Eintracht Frankfurt	8	4	33
34	Slavia Praha	8	3	34
35	Villarreal	8	1	35
36	Kairat Almaty	8	1	36

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Predict the score

Loading API predictions…

CatBoost Prediction

Model not available yet. Run train_catboost to train a model.

Qualification Prediction Based on 5000 simulations

Paris Saint Germain

66.2%

Bayern München

33.8%

Match Type: Two-leg tie

First leg: Paris Saint Germain 5-4 Bayern München

Current aggregate: 5-4

Method: Monte Carlo (Dixon-Coles + Elo fallback, elo-weighted ET/PEN)

How was this calculated?

We simulate this knockout matchup using scoreline probabilities from Dixon-Coles where available, with an Elo fallback when needed. For two-leg ties we aggregate both legs and count who advances; for single-match knockouts and aggregate-level ties we resolve the shootout step with an elo-weighted draw rather than a 50/50 flip.

Our predictions

catboost

Home Win 38.3%

Draw 25.7%

Away Win 36.0%

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

36.2%

Home Win

25.5%

Draw

38.3%

Away Win

Expected Goals

Paris Saint Germain 1.58

Bayern München 1.63

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

Paris Saint Germain

Bayern München

Parc des Princes

Prediction (catboost)

Qualification %

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

catboost

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)