Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta - Football Platform

UEFA Champions League

Atalanta

3' S. Guirassy
42' M. Beier

17 Feb 2026

21:00

Signal Iduna Park

First Leg Second Leg

Aggregate 3 - 4

Score Summary

Borussia Dortmund

2 0

FT HT 2–0

Atalanta

S. Guirassy 3'
M. Beier 42'

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

55% Win

Borussia Dortmund 1586 1595 ▲ 9

45% Win

Atalanta 1549 1540 ▼ -9

xPi Expected win probability

61% Win

Borussia Dortmund 0.46 0.66 ▲ 0.19

28% Win

Atalanta 0.30 0.37 ▲ 0.06

Top Performers

Top Rated

Ramy Bensebaini

Borussia Dortmund

8.5

8.5 rating · 90 min

Most Clinical

Maximilian Beier

Borussia Dortmund

6.5

1 goals

Best Creator

Julian Ryerson

Borussia Dortmund

7.9

2 key passes · 1 assists

Defensive Leader

Jobe Bellingham

Borussia Dortmund

7.7

6 tackles · 1 interceptions

Match Momentum

Borussia Dortmund 40% Atalanta 60%

Key Stats Snapshot

44 Possession 56

9 Shots 7

2 On Target 3

Form Context

Borussia Dortmund

L W D L L

Atalanta

W W W L L

Smart Insight

Atalanta carried stronger momentum across the match profile.
Borussia Dortmund generated the clearer shot volume edge.
Elo movement favors Borussia Dortmund after this result.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 54.7%

Draw 23.7%

Away Win 21.6%

Expected Goals 1.98 - 1.19

Qualification %

Borussia Dortmund 0.0%

Atalanta 100.0%

Based on 5000 simulations

Standings (Top 6)

Full table

#	Team	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal	24	W W W W W
2	Bayern München	21	W L W W W
3	Liverpool	18	W L W W W
4	Tottenham	17	W L W W W
5	Barcelona	16	D L W W W
6	Chelsea	16	D W L W W

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

44 Possession 56

2 Shots 3

9 Shots 7

1 Offsides 1

4 Shots Off Goal 2

2 Shots On Goal 3

9 Total Shots 7

44 Ball Possession 56

347 Passes Accurate 452

419 Total Passes 521

83% Passes % 87%

3 Blocked Shots 2

3 Goalkeeper Saves 0

11 Fouls 13

0 Red Cards 0

2 Yellow Cards 3

3 Corner Kicks 2

6 Shots Insidebox 5

3 Shots Outsidebox 2

2.09 expected_goals 0.46

0 goals_prevented 0

Borussia Dortmund — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Alexander Meyer	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	33	G	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Almugera Kabar	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	42	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Carney Chukwuemeka	0	-	1	-	9	3	1	1	False	20	17	M	6.7	True	0	-	-	-	6	-	7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Daniel Svensson	0	-	1	-	7	2	1	2	False	90	24	M	6.7	False	0	-	-	1	28	-	32	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	-
👤 Danylo Krevsun	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	45	M	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Elias Benkara	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	47	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Felix Nmecha	0	2	-	1	8	5	-	2	False	83	8	M	7.7	False	0	-	-	-	26	1	32	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	2
👤 Fábio Silva	0	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	False	11	21	F	6.5	True	0	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Gregor Kobel	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	1	G	7.3	False	0	3	-	-	25	-	41	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jobe Bellingham	0	2	1	2	12	9	-	-	False	90	7	M	7.7	False	0	-	-	-	31	-	32	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	6
👤 Julian Brandt	0	1	-	-	3	1	-	-	True	70	10	F	6.9	False	0	-	-	-	25	1	29	-	-	-	-	1	-	2	1
👤 Julian Ryerson	0	4	1	1	10	4	-	1	False	90	26	M	7.9	False	1	-	-	-	20	2	28	-	-	-	-	-	1	2	2
👤 Karim Adeyemi	0	-	-	-	4	1	1	-	False	20	27	F	6.3	True	0	-	-	-	2	-	3	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 Luca Reggiani	1	-	-	-	4	2	1	-	False	90	49	D	7	False	0	-	-	-	28	-	33	-	-	-	-	-	1	2	1
👤 Marcel Sabitzer	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	11	20	M	6.7	True	0	-	-	-	3	-	3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Maximilian Beier	0	2	-	-	5	-	2	-	False	70	14	F	6.5	False	0	-	1	-	17	-	20	-	-	-	1	2	-	-	-
👤 Ramy Bensebaini	0	-	-	-	9	8	1	2	False	90	5	D	8.5	False	0	-	-	-	65	-	71	-	-	-	-	-	-	3	3
👤 Salih Özcan	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	6	M	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Samuele Inacio	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	40	F	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Serhou Guirassy	0	1	-	1	11	6	1	2	False	83	9	F	8.5	False	1	-	1	-	35	2	42	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Silas Ostrzinski	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	31	G	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Waldemar Anton	1	-	-	-	10	4	3	1	False	90	3	D	6.7	False	0	-	-	-	36	-	44	-	-	-	-	1	-	2	2
👤 Yan Couto	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	2	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Atalanta — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Berat Djimsiti	1	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	False	45	19	D	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	27	-	29	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Davide Zappacosta	0	-	-	-	3	2	1	1	False	72	77	M	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	28	1	33	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Dominic Vavassori	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	45	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Francesco Rossi	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	31	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Gianluca Scamacca	1	-	1	-	12	3	2	-	False	45	9	F	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	14	-	18	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Giorgio Scalvini	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	42	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Honest Ahanor	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	69	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Isak Hien	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	False	45	4	D	7.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	20	-	22	-	-	-	-	-	1	2	-
👤 Kamaldeen Sulemana	0	2	-	1	5	2	-	-	False	27	7	F	6.5	True	0	0	-	-	-	9	-	10	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	1
👤 Lazar Samardžić	0	1	-	1	2	2	-	-	False	8	10	M	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	8	-	10	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Lorenzo Bernasconi	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	False	90	47	M	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	40	2	45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Marco Carnesecchi	0	-	-	-	2	2	-	1	False	90	29	G	6.7	False	0	2	-	-	-	27	-	35	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Marco Sportiello	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	57	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Mario Pašalić	0	2	1	-	14	6	2	-	False	90	8	F	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	40	-	44	-	-	-	-	1	-	2	4
👤 Marten de Roon	0	-	1	-	4	1	2	-	True	63	15	M	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	20	-	29	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	-
👤 Mitchel Bakker	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	5	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Nicola Zalewski	0	2	-	1	6	5	-	3	False	82	59	F	7.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	24	-	29	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Nikola Krstović	0	1	-	1	8	5	3	1	False	45	90	F	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	1	7	1	10	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	1
👤 Odilon Kossounou	1	2	-	-	11	4	2	2	False	90	3	D	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	52	-	54	-	-	-	-	-	1	2	2
👤 Raoul Bellanova	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	False	18	16	D	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	15	-	16	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Sead Kolašinac	0	-	-	-	5	4	-	1	False	90	23	D	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	56	-	66	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	2
👤 Yunus Musah	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	6	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Éderson	0	2	2	-	17	9	1	1	False	90	13	M	7	False	0	0	-	-	-	65	1	71	-	-	-	1	1	-	2	5

League standings

Full table

Teams in this match: Borussia Dortmund and Atalanta

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal		8	8	0	0	23	4	19	24	W W W W W
2	Bayern München		8	7	0	1	22	8	14	21	W L W W W
3	Liverpool		8	6	0	2	20	8	12	18	W L W W W
4	Tottenham		8	5	2	1	17	7	10	17	W L W W W
5	Barcelona		8	5	1	2	22	14	8	16	D L W W W
6	Chelsea		8	5	1	2	17	10	7	16	D W L W W
7	Sporting CP		8	5	1	2	17	11	6	16	D W L W W
8	Manchester City		8	5	1	2	15	9	6	16	W L W L W
9	Real Madrid		8	5	0	3	21	12	9	15	L W L W L
10	Inter		8	5	0	3	15	7	8	15	W L L L W
11	Paris Saint Germain		8	4	2	2	21	11	10	14	L W D L D
12	Newcastle		8	4	2	2	17	7	10	14	W L D W D
13	Juventus		8	3	4	1	14	10	4	13	D W W W D
14	Atletico Madrid		8	4	1	3	17	15	2	13	W W W D L
15	Atalanta	2-0	8	4	1	3	10	10	0	13	W W W L L
16	Bayer Leverkusen		8	3	3	2	13	14	-1	12	W W D L W
17	Borussia Dortmund	2-0	8	3	2	3	19	17	2	11	L W D L L
18	Olympiakos Piraeus		8	3	2	3	10	14	-4	11	D L W W W
19	Club Brugge KV		8	3	1	4	15	17	-2	10	D L L W W
20	Galatasaray		8	3	1	4	9	11	-2	10	W L L D L
21	Monaco		8	2	4	2	8	14	-6	10	W D W L D
22	Qarabag		8	3	1	4	13	21	-8	10	D L L W L
23	Bodo/Glimt		8	2	3	3	14	15	-1	9	L L D W W
24	Benfica		8	3	0	5	10	12	-2	9	L W W L W
25	Marseille		8	3	0	5	11	14	-3	9	L W W L L
26	Pafos		8	2	3	3	8	11	-3	9	W D L L W
27	Union St. Gilloise		8	3	0	5	8	17	-9	9	L W L L W
28	PSV Eindhoven		8	2	2	4	16	16	0	8	D W L L L
29	Athletic Club		8	2	2	4	9	14	-5	8	L D D W L
30	Napoli		8	2	2	4	9	15	-6	8	D W L D L
31	FC Copenhagen		8	2	2	4	12	21	-9	8	L W W D L
32	Ajax		8	2	0	6	8	21	-13	6	L L W W L
33	Eintracht Frankfurt		8	1	1	6	10	21	-11	4	D L L L L
34	Slavia Praha		8	0	3	5	5	19	-14	3	L D L L L
35	Villarreal		8	0	1	7	5	18	-13	1	L L L L L
36	Kairat Almaty		8	0	1	7	7	22	-15	1	L L L L L

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Our prediction i

Full predictions

Teams in this match: Borussia Dortmund and Atalanta

#	Team	MP	Pred Pts	Pred #
1	Arsenal	8	27	1
2	Bayern München	8	22	2
3	Liverpool	8	18	3
4	Tottenham	8	17	4
5	Barcelona	8	16	5
6	Chelsea	8	16	6
7	Sporting CP	8	16	7
8	Manchester City	8	16	8
9	Real Madrid	8	15	10
10	Inter	8	15	11
11	Paris Saint Germain	8	15	9
12	Newcastle	8	14	12
13	Juventus	8	13	13
14	Atletico Madrid	8	13	13
15	Atalanta	8	13	15
16	Bayer Leverkusen	8	12	16
17	Borussia Dortmund	8	11	17
18	Olympiakos Piraeus	8	11	18
19	Club Brugge KV	8	10	19
20	Galatasaray	8	10	20
21	Monaco	8	10	21
22	Qarabag	8	10	22
23	Bodo/Glimt	8	9	23
24	Benfica	8	9	24
25	Marseille	8	9	25
26	Pafos	8	9	26
27	Union St. Gilloise	8	9	27
28	PSV Eindhoven	8	8	28
29	Athletic Club	8	8	29
30	Napoli	8	8	30
31	FC Copenhagen	8	8	31
32	Ajax	8	6	32
33	Eintracht Frankfurt	8	4	33
34	Slavia Praha	8	3	34
35	Villarreal	8	1	35
36	Kairat Almaty	8	1	36

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Predict the score

Loading API predictions…

CatBoost Prediction

Model not available yet. Run train_catboost to train a model.

Qualification Prediction Based on 5000 simulations

Borussia Dortmund

0.0%

Atalanta

100.0%

Match Type: Two-leg tie

First leg: Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Atalanta

Current aggregate: 3-4

Method: Monte Carlo (Dixon-Coles + Elo fallback, elo-weighted ET/PEN)

How was this calculated?

We simulate this knockout matchup using scoreline probabilities from Dixon-Coles where available, with an Elo fallback when needed. For two-leg ties we aggregate both legs and count who advances; for single-match knockouts and aggregate-level ties we resolve the shootout step with an elo-weighted draw rather than a 50/50 flip.

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

54.7%

Home Win

23.7%

Draw

21.6%

Away Win

Expected Goals

Borussia Dortmund 1.98

Atalanta 1.19

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

Borussia Dortmund

Atalanta

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Qualification %

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)