Club Brugge KV vs Atletico Madrid

UEFA Champions League

Atletico Madrid

Coach : D. Simeone

18 Feb 2026

21:00

Jan Breydel Stadion

First Leg Second Leg

Aggregate 4 - 7

Score Summary

Club Brugge KV

3 3

FT HT 0–2

Atletico Madrid

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

41% Win

Club Brugge KV 1517 1519 ▲ 2

59% Win

Atletico Madrid 1579 1577 ▼ -2

xPi Expected win probability

42% Win

Club Brugge KV -0.08 -0.05 ▲ 0.03

36% Win

Atletico Madrid 0.32 0.17 ▼ -0.15

Top Performers

Top Rated

Jan Oblak

Atletico Madrid

9.0

9.0 rating · 90 min

Most Clinical

Raphael Onyedika

Club Brugge KV

8.0

1 goals

Best Creator

Mamadou Diakhon

Club Brugge KV

7.9

3 key passes · 1 assists

Defensive Leader

Matteo Ruggeri

Atletico Madrid

5.9

0 tackles · 6 interceptions

Match Momentum

Club Brugge KV 71% Atletico Madrid 29%

Key Stats Snapshot

58 Possession 42

17 Shots 13

10 On Target 4

Form Context

Club Brugge KV

D L L W W

Atletico Madrid

W W W D L

Smart Insight

Club Brugge KV controlled momentum for most phases of play.
Club Brugge KV generated the clearer shot volume edge.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 40.3%

Draw 25.6%

Away Win 34.2%

Expected Goals 1.66 - 1.52

Qualification %

Club Brugge KV 0.0%

Atletico Madrid 100.0%

Based on 5000 simulations

Standings (Top 6)

Full table

#	Team	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal	24	W W W W W
2	Bayern München	21	W L W W W
3	Liverpool	18	W L W W W
4	Tottenham	17	W L W W W
5	Barcelona	16	D L W W W
6	Chelsea	16	D W L W W

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

58 Possession 42

10 Shots 4

17 Shots 13

2 Offsides 0

4 Shots Off Goal 4

10 Shots On Goal 4

17 Total Shots 13

58 Ball Possession 42

567 Passes Accurate 411

650 Total Passes 484

87% Passes % 85%

3 Blocked Shots 5

2 Goalkeeper Saves 7

5 Fouls 8

0 Red Cards 0

1 Yellow Cards 2

4 Corner Kicks 6

11 Shots Insidebox 9

6 Shots Outsidebox 4

2.33 expected_goals 2.33

1 goals_prevented 1

Club Brugge KV — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Aleksandar Stanković	0	1	-	-	6	4	-	1	False	86	25	M	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	1	44	-	55	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	3
👤 Bjorn Meijer	0	-	-	-	3	1	-	-	False	11	14	D	6.6	True	0	0	-	-	-	2	-	2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Brandon Mechele	0	-	-	-	8	5	-	2	False	90	44	D	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	85	-	91	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1
👤 Christos Tzolis	0	-	-	-	2	2	-	-	False	90	8	M	8.2	False	0	0	-	1	-	41	1	48	-	-	-	3	4	-	-	2
👤 Félix Lemaréchal	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	False	11	80	M	6.6	True	0	0	-	-	-	7	-	7	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
👤 Gustaf Nilsson	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	19	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Hans Vanaken	0	-	1	-	7	5	-	-	True	90	20	M	8.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	70	3	83	-	-	-	-	-	3	1	3
👤 Hugo Siquet	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	False	9	41	D	7	True	0	0	-	-	-	10	1	11	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Hugo Vetlesen	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	10	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Joaquin Seys	0	1	-	-	6	3	1	-	False	86	65	D	5.9	False	0	0	-	-	1	40	-	46	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Joel Ordóñez	0	-	2	-	4	-	1	-	False	90	4	D	5.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	79	1	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jorne Spileers	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	58	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Kyriani Sabbe	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	81	64	D	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	48	2	57	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	-
👤 Ludovit Reis	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	6	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Mamadou Diakhon	0	1	1	1	6	3	1	1	False	82	67	M	7.9	False	1	0	-	-	-	20	3	28	-	-	-	-	1	1	-	1
👤 Nicolò Tresoldi	0	3	-	3	7	6	-	2	False	76	7	F	7.7	False	0	0	-	1	-	9	-	13	-	-	-	3	4	-	-	1
👤 Nordin Jackers	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	29	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Raphael Onyedika	1	-	1	-	9	4	2	1	False	90	15	M	8	False	1	0	-	1	-	65	2	72	-	-	-	3	3	-	-	2
👤 Romeo Vermant	0	1	-	-	3	1	-	-	False	14	17	F	6.5	True	0	0	-	-	-	6	1	7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Shandre Campbell	0	1	-	1	2	2	-	-	False	8	84	F	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	4	-	5	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	1
👤 Simon Mignolet	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	22	G	6.9	False	0	3	2	-	-	37	-	39	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Vince Osuji	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	24	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Atletico Madrid — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.scored	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Ademola Lookman	0	-	-	-	2	-	-	-	False	62	22	F	6.6	False	0	0	-	1	-	18	-	21	-	-	0	-	1	1	-	1	-
👤 Alex Baena	1	-	1	-	2	-	1	-	False	28	10	M	6.2	True	0	0	-	-	-	10	1	14	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Alexander Sørloth	0	-	-	-	7	5	-	-	False	24	9	F	6.6	True	0	0	-	-	-	5	-	9	-	-	0	-	1	2	-	-	-
👤 Antoine Griezmann	0	2	-	2	5	3	-	1	False	66	7	M	6.9	False	1	0	-	-	-	23	2	29	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Clément Lenglet	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	15	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Dávid Hancko	0	1	-	-	1	-	-	-	False	90	17	D	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	48	-	53	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	2	-
👤 Giuliano Simeone	0	2	-	-	11	5	1	-	False	90	20	F	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	28	1	36	-	-	0	-	-	2	-	-	2
👤 Jan Oblak	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	13	G	9	False	0	3	7	-	-	17	1	28	-	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Johnny Cardoso	0	1	-	-	1	-	-	-	False	1	5	M	-	True	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 José María Giménez	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	2	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Juan Musso	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	1	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Julián Alvarez	0	4	-	2	10	4	2	1	False	90	19	F	7.2	False	0	0	-	1	-	39	2	45	-	-	1	-	2	2	-	-	1
👤 Koke	0	-	1	-	6	3	-	1	True	89	6	M	7.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	57	3	59	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Marc Pubill	1	1	-	1	11	5	2	-	False	90	18	D	6.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	53	1	59	-	-	0	-	-	-	1	1	2
👤 Marcos Llorente	0	-	2	-	5	1	1	1	False	90	14	M	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	46	-	49	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 Matteo Ruggeri	0	-	-	-	1	-	1	-	False	90	3	D	5.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	40	-	48	-	-	0	-	-	1	2	6	-
👤 Nahuel Molina	0	1	1	-	3	1	-	-	False	89	16	D	5.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	26	1	33	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	1	1
👤 Obed Vargas	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	21	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Robin Le Normand	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	1	24	D	-	True	0	0	-	-	-	1	-	1	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 Rodrigo Mendoza	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	4	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Salvador Esquivel	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	31	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Thiago Almada	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	11	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-

League standings

Full table

Teams in this match: Club Brugge KV and Atletico Madrid

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal		8	8	0	0	23	4	19	24	W W W W W
2	Bayern München		8	7	0	1	22	8	14	21	W L W W W
3	Liverpool		8	6	0	2	20	8	12	18	W L W W W
4	Tottenham		8	5	2	1	17	7	10	17	W L W W W
5	Barcelona		8	5	1	2	22	14	8	16	D L W W W
6	Chelsea		8	5	1	2	17	10	7	16	D W L W W
7	Sporting CP		8	5	1	2	17	11	6	16	D W L W W
8	Manchester City		8	5	1	2	15	9	6	16	W L W L W
9	Real Madrid		8	5	0	3	21	12	9	15	L W L W L
10	Inter		8	5	0	3	15	7	8	15	W L L L W
11	Paris Saint Germain		8	4	2	2	21	11	10	14	L W D L D
12	Newcastle		8	4	2	2	17	7	10	14	W L D W D
13	Juventus		8	3	4	1	14	10	4	13	D W W W D
14	Atletico Madrid	3-3	8	4	1	3	17	15	2	13	W W W D L
15	Atalanta		8	4	1	3	10	10	0	13	W W W L L
16	Bayer Leverkusen		8	3	3	2	13	14	-1	12	W W D L W
17	Borussia Dortmund		8	3	2	3	19	17	2	11	L W D L L
18	Olympiakos Piraeus		8	3	2	3	10	14	-4	11	D L W W W
19	Club Brugge KV	3-3	8	3	1	4	15	17	-2	10	D L L W W
20	Galatasaray		8	3	1	4	9	11	-2	10	W L L D L
21	Monaco		8	2	4	2	8	14	-6	10	W D W L D
22	Qarabag		8	3	1	4	13	21	-8	10	D L L W L
23	Bodo/Glimt		8	2	3	3	14	15	-1	9	L L D W W
24	Benfica		8	3	0	5	10	12	-2	9	L W W L W
25	Marseille		8	3	0	5	11	14	-3	9	L W W L L
26	Pafos		8	2	3	3	8	11	-3	9	W D L L W
27	Union St. Gilloise		8	3	0	5	8	17	-9	9	L W L L W
28	PSV Eindhoven		8	2	2	4	16	16	0	8	D W L L L
29	Athletic Club		8	2	2	4	9	14	-5	8	L D D W L
30	Napoli		8	2	2	4	9	15	-6	8	D W L D L
31	FC Copenhagen		8	2	2	4	12	21	-9	8	L W W D L
32	Ajax		8	2	0	6	8	21	-13	6	L L W W L
33	Eintracht Frankfurt		8	1	1	6	10	21	-11	4	D L L L L
34	Slavia Praha		8	0	3	5	5	19	-14	3	L D L L L
35	Villarreal		8	0	1	7	5	18	-13	1	L L L L L
36	Kairat Almaty		8	0	1	7	7	22	-15	1	L L L L L

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Our prediction i

Full predictions

Teams in this match: Club Brugge KV and Atletico Madrid

#	Team	MP	Pred Pts	Pred #
1	Arsenal	8	27	1
2	Bayern München	8	22	2
3	Liverpool	8	18	3
4	Tottenham	8	17	4
5	Barcelona	8	16	5
6	Chelsea	8	16	6
7	Sporting CP	8	16	7
8	Manchester City	8	16	8
9	Real Madrid	8	15	10
10	Inter	8	15	11
11	Paris Saint Germain	8	15	9
12	Newcastle	8	14	12
13	Juventus	8	13	13
14	Atletico Madrid	8	13	13
15	Atalanta	8	13	15
16	Bayer Leverkusen	8	12	16
17	Borussia Dortmund	8	11	17
18	Olympiakos Piraeus	8	11	18
19	Club Brugge KV	8	10	19
20	Galatasaray	8	10	20
21	Monaco	8	10	21
22	Qarabag	8	10	22
23	Bodo/Glimt	8	9	23
24	Benfica	8	9	24
25	Marseille	8	9	25
26	Pafos	8	9	26
27	Union St. Gilloise	8	9	27
28	PSV Eindhoven	8	8	28
29	Athletic Club	8	8	29
30	Napoli	8	8	30
31	FC Copenhagen	8	8	31
32	Ajax	8	6	32
33	Eintracht Frankfurt	8	4	33
34	Slavia Praha	8	3	34
35	Villarreal	8	1	35
36	Kairat Almaty	8	1	36

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Predict the score

Loading API predictions…

CatBoost Prediction

Model not available yet. Run train_catboost to train a model.

Qualification Prediction Based on 5000 simulations

Club Brugge KV

0.0%

Atletico Madrid

100.0%

Match Type: Two-leg tie

First leg: Club Brugge KV 3-3 Atletico Madrid

Current aggregate: 7-4

Method: Monte Carlo (Dixon-Coles + Elo fallback, elo-weighted ET/PEN)

How was this calculated?

We simulate this knockout matchup using scoreline probabilities from Dixon-Coles where available, with an Elo fallback when needed. For two-leg ties we aggregate both legs and count who advances; for single-match knockouts and aggregate-level ties we resolve the shootout step with an elo-weighted draw rather than a 50/50 flip.

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

40.3%

Home Win

25.6%

Draw

34.2%

Away Win

Expected Goals

Club Brugge KV 1.66

Atletico Madrid 1.52

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

Club Brugge KV

Atletico Madrid

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Qualification %

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)