Atletico Madrid vs Club Brugge KV

UEFA Champions League

Club Brugge KV

24 Feb 2026

18:45

Metropolitano Stadium

First Leg Second Leg

Aggregate 7 - 4

Score Summary

Atletico Madrid

4 1

FT HT 1–1

Club Brugge KV

36' J. Ordonez

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

59% Win

Atletico Madrid 1585 1593 ▲ 8

41% Win

Club Brugge KV 1519 1511 ▼ -8

xPi Expected win probability

61% Win

Atletico Madrid 0.40 0.17 ▼ -0.23

28% Win

Club Brugge KV -0.09 -0.05 ▲ 0.04

Top Performers

Top Rated

Alexander Sørloth

Atletico Madrid

9.2

9.2 rating · 90 min

Most Clinical

Alexander Sørloth

Atletico Madrid

9.2

3 goals

Best Creator

Matteo Ruggeri

Atletico Madrid

7.7

5 key passes · 1 assists

Defensive Leader

Marcos Llorente

Atletico Madrid

7.2

7 tackles · 2 interceptions

Match Momentum

Atletico Madrid 45% Club Brugge KV 55%

Key Stats Snapshot

45 Possession 55

14 Shots 11

5 On Target 6

Form Context

Atletico Madrid

W W W D L

Club Brugge KV

D L L W W

Smart Insight

Club Brugge KV carried stronger momentum across the match profile.
Atletico Madrid generated the clearer shot volume edge.
Elo movement favors Atletico Madrid after this result.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 54.9%

Draw 23.6%

Away Win 21.5%

Expected Goals 1.99 - 1.19

Qualification %

Atletico Madrid 100.0%

Club Brugge KV 0.0%

Based on 5000 simulations

Standings (Top 6)

Full table

#	Team	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal	24	W W W W W
2	Bayern München	21	W L W W W
3	Liverpool	18	W L W W W
4	Tottenham	17	W L W W W
5	Barcelona	16	D L W W W
6	Chelsea	16	D W L W W

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

45 Possession 55

5 Shots 6

14 Shots 11

1 Offsides 1

5 Shots Off Goal 1

5 Shots On Goal 6

14 Total Shots 11

45 Ball Possession 55

390 Passes Accurate 486

464 Total Passes 555

84% Passes % 88%

4 Blocked Shots 4

5 Goalkeeper Saves 1

5 Fouls 8

0 Red Cards 0

1 Yellow Cards 2

2 Corner Kicks 7

10 Shots Insidebox 5

4 Shots Outsidebox 6

2.10 expected_goals 1.75

-1 goals_prevented -1

Atletico Madrid — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Ademola Lookman	0	1	-	1	2	2	-	1	False	20	22	F	7.2	True	0	0	-	-	-	5	-	6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Alex Baena	0	-	1	-	6	2	1	2	False	70	10	M	6.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	24	1	32	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	-
👤 Alexander Sørloth	0	3	-	1	13	4	1	-	False	90	9	F	9.2	False	0	0	-	3	1	22	1	31	-	-	-	4	5	-	-	-
👤 Antoine Griezmann	0	-	-	-	3	3	-	1	False	32	7	F	7.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	11	1	13	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Clément Lenglet	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	15	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Dávid Hancko	0	1	1	-	7	5	-	1	False	90	17	D	7.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	57	-	62	-	-	-	-	-	1	2	4
👤 Giuliano Simeone	0	2	-	-	7	3	-	1	False	83	20	M	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	35	-	39	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	2
👤 Jan Oblak	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	False	90	13	G	8.5	False	1	1	5	-	-	16	1	28	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Johnny Cardoso	0	3	-	1	4	2	-	-	False	83	5	M	7.6	False	0	0	-	1	-	33	-	39	-	-	-	1	1	1	5	1
👤 José María Giménez	0	-	-	-	2	-	-	-	False	10	2	D	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	1	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Juan Musso	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	1	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Julián Alvarez	0	3	-	1	6	2	1	-	False	58	19	F	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	18	-	21	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Koke	0	-	3	-	4	1	-	1	True	70	6	M	7	False	0	0	-	-	-	34	1	38	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Marc Pubill	0	-	-	-	6	4	-	-	False	90	18	D	7	False	0	0	-	-	-	51	-	54	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	1
👤 Marcos Llorente	1	1	1	-	14	7	1	-	False	90	14	D	7.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	35	-	38	-	-	-	-	1	-	2	7
👤 Matteo Ruggeri	0	1	5	1	8	2	-	-	False	90	3	D	7.7	False	1	0	-	-	-	42	5	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1
👤 Nahuel Molina	0	-	-	-	1	-	1	-	False	20	16	D	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	3	-	4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Obed Vargas	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	21	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Robin Le Normand	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	24	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Rodrigo Mendoza	0	-	-	-	2	-	-	-	False	10	4	M	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	3	-	4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Salvador Esquivel	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	31	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Thiago Almada	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	11	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Club Brugge KV — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Aleksandar Stanković	0	-	-	-	7	5	1	2	False	90	25	M	6.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	63	-	71	-	-	-	1	1	-	2	2
👤 Axl De Corte	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	71	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Bjorn Meijer	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	2	14	D	-	True	0	0	-	-	-	4	-	5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Brandon Mechele	0	-	-	-	9	6	-	-	False	88	44	D	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	53	-	58	-	-	-	-	-	1	3	1
👤 Carlos Forbs	0	7	-	5	9	6	1	-	False	90	9	M	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	1	20	-	31	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Christos Tzolis	0	5	-	3	8	6	-	1	False	82	8	M	7.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	35	3	41	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	1
👤 Cisse Sandra	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	11	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Félix Lemaréchal	0	-	1	-	6	2	-	-	False	8	80	M	6.5	True	0	0	-	-	-	2	-	3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Gustaf Nilsson	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	8	19	F	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	1	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Hans Vanaken	0	-	-	-	4	3	-	2	True	90	20	M	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	75	3	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
👤 Hugo Siquet	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	41	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Hugo Vetlesen	0	2	1	1	5	1	2	-	False	65	10	M	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	26	-	31	-	-	-	2	2	-	1	-
👤 Joaquin Seys	0	1	-	1	7	6	-	-	False	82	65	D	6.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	41	-	45	-	-	-	-	-	2	1	4
👤 Joel Ordóñez	1	-	2	-	7	2	1	-	False	90	4	D	6.2	False	0	0	-	1	-	54	1	62	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	1
👤 Jorne Spileers	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	58	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Kyriani Sabbe	0	2	1	1	8	5	-	-	False	90	64	D	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	70	1	78	-	-	-	-	1	1	1	4
👤 Mamadou Diakhon	0	1	-	-	3	1	-	-	False	25	67	F	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	5	-	6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Nicolò Tresoldi	0	2	-	-	6	3	-	-	False	65	7	F	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	9	-	13	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	3
👤 Nordin Jackers	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	29	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Romeo Vermant	1	-	-	-	7	2	3	-	False	25	17	F	6.2	True	0	0	-	-	-	4	-	4	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Shandre Campbell	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	84	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Simon Mignolet	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	22	G	5.2	False	0	4	1	-	-	24	-	27	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Vince Osuji	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	24	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

League standings

Full table

Teams in this match: Atletico Madrid and Club Brugge KV

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal		8	8	0	0	23	4	19	24	W W W W W
2	Bayern München		8	7	0	1	22	8	14	21	W L W W W
3	Liverpool		8	6	0	2	20	8	12	18	W L W W W
4	Tottenham		8	5	2	1	17	7	10	17	W L W W W
5	Barcelona		8	5	1	2	22	14	8	16	D L W W W
6	Chelsea		8	5	1	2	17	10	7	16	D W L W W
7	Sporting CP		8	5	1	2	17	11	6	16	D W L W W
8	Manchester City		8	5	1	2	15	9	6	16	W L W L W
9	Real Madrid		8	5	0	3	21	12	9	15	L W L W L
10	Inter		8	5	0	3	15	7	8	15	W L L L W
11	Paris Saint Germain		8	4	2	2	21	11	10	14	L W D L D
12	Newcastle		8	4	2	2	17	7	10	14	W L D W D
13	Juventus		8	3	4	1	14	10	4	13	D W W W D
14	Atletico Madrid	4-1	8	4	1	3	17	15	2	13	W W W D L
15	Atalanta		8	4	1	3	10	10	0	13	W W W L L
16	Bayer Leverkusen		8	3	3	2	13	14	-1	12	W W D L W
17	Borussia Dortmund		8	3	2	3	19	17	2	11	L W D L L
18	Olympiakos Piraeus		8	3	2	3	10	14	-4	11	D L W W W
19	Club Brugge KV	4-1	8	3	1	4	15	17	-2	10	D L L W W
20	Galatasaray		8	3	1	4	9	11	-2	10	W L L D L
21	Monaco		8	2	4	2	8	14	-6	10	W D W L D
22	Qarabag		8	3	1	4	13	21	-8	10	D L L W L
23	Bodo/Glimt		8	2	3	3	14	15	-1	9	L L D W W
24	Benfica		8	3	0	5	10	12	-2	9	L W W L W
25	Marseille		8	3	0	5	11	14	-3	9	L W W L L
26	Pafos		8	2	3	3	8	11	-3	9	W D L L W
27	Union St. Gilloise		8	3	0	5	8	17	-9	9	L W L L W
28	PSV Eindhoven		8	2	2	4	16	16	0	8	D W L L L
29	Athletic Club		8	2	2	4	9	14	-5	8	L D D W L
30	Napoli		8	2	2	4	9	15	-6	8	D W L D L
31	FC Copenhagen		8	2	2	4	12	21	-9	8	L W W D L
32	Ajax		8	2	0	6	8	21	-13	6	L L W W L
33	Eintracht Frankfurt		8	1	1	6	10	21	-11	4	D L L L L
34	Slavia Praha		8	0	3	5	5	19	-14	3	L D L L L
35	Villarreal		8	0	1	7	5	18	-13	1	L L L L L
36	Kairat Almaty		8	0	1	7	7	22	-15	1	L L L L L

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Our prediction i

Full predictions

Teams in this match: Atletico Madrid and Club Brugge KV

#	Team	MP	Pred Pts	Pred #
1	Arsenal	8	27	1
2	Bayern München	8	22	2
3	Liverpool	8	18	3
4	Tottenham	8	17	4
5	Barcelona	8	16	5
6	Chelsea	8	16	6
7	Sporting CP	8	16	7
8	Manchester City	8	16	8
9	Real Madrid	8	15	10
10	Inter	8	15	11
11	Paris Saint Germain	8	15	9
12	Newcastle	8	14	12
13	Juventus	8	13	13
14	Atletico Madrid	8	13	13
15	Atalanta	8	13	15
16	Bayer Leverkusen	8	12	16
17	Borussia Dortmund	8	11	17
18	Olympiakos Piraeus	8	11	18
19	Club Brugge KV	8	10	19
20	Galatasaray	8	10	20
21	Monaco	8	10	21
22	Qarabag	8	10	22
23	Bodo/Glimt	8	9	23
24	Benfica	8	9	24
25	Marseille	8	9	25
26	Pafos	8	9	26
27	Union St. Gilloise	8	9	27
28	PSV Eindhoven	8	8	28
29	Athletic Club	8	8	29
30	Napoli	8	8	30
31	FC Copenhagen	8	8	31
32	Ajax	8	6	32
33	Eintracht Frankfurt	8	4	33
34	Slavia Praha	8	3	34
35	Villarreal	8	1	35
36	Kairat Almaty	8	1	36

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Predict the score

Loading API predictions…

CatBoost Prediction

Model not available yet. Run train_catboost to train a model.

Qualification Prediction Based on 5000 simulations

Atletico Madrid

100.0%

Club Brugge KV

0.0%

Match Type: Two-leg tie

First leg: Club Brugge KV 3-3 Atletico Madrid

Current aggregate: 7-4

Method: Monte Carlo (Dixon-Coles + Elo fallback, elo-weighted ET/PEN)

How was this calculated?

We simulate this knockout matchup using scoreline probabilities from Dixon-Coles where available, with an Elo fallback when needed. For two-leg ties we aggregate both legs and count who advances; for single-match knockouts and aggregate-level ties we resolve the shootout step with an elo-weighted draw rather than a 50/50 flip.

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

54.9%

Home Win

23.6%

Draw

21.5%

Away Win

Expected Goals

Atletico Madrid 1.99

Club Brugge KV 1.19

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

Atletico Madrid

Club Brugge KV

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Qualification %

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)