Newcastle vs Qarabag - Football Platform

UEFA Champions League

Qarabag

24 Feb 2026

21:00

St James' Park

First Leg Second Leg

Aggregate 9 - 3

Score Summary

Newcastle

3 2

FT HT 2–0

Qarabag

51' C. Duran
57' E. Cafarquliyev

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

56% Win

Newcastle 1533 1542 ▲ 9

44% Win

Qarabag 1494 1485 ▼ -9

xPi Expected win probability

65% Win

Newcastle 0.65 0.22 ▼ -0.42

26% Win

Qarabag -0.71 -0.69 ▲ 0.02

Top Performers

Top Rated

Sandro Tonali

Newcastle

8.7

8.7 rating · 90 min

Most Clinical

Sven Botman

Newcastle

7.5

1 goals

Best Creator

Harvey Barnes

Newcastle

8.0

3 key passes · 1 assists

Defensive Leader

Dani Bolt

Qarabag

6.3

3 tackles · 4 interceptions

Match Momentum

Newcastle 57% Qarabag 43%

Key Stats Snapshot

65 Possession 35

19 Shots 13

8 On Target 6

Form Context

Newcastle

W L D W D

Qarabag

D L L W L

Smart Insight

Newcastle controlled momentum for most phases of play.
Newcastle generated the clearer shot volume edge.
Elo movement favors Newcastle after this result.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 57.9%

Draw 22.9%

Away Win 19.2%

Expected Goals 2.06 - 1.12

Qualification %

Newcastle 100.0%

Qarabag 0.0%

Based on 5000 simulations

Standings (Top 6)

Full table

#	Team	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal	24	W W W W W
2	Bayern München	21	W L W W W
3	Liverpool	18	W L W W W
4	Tottenham	17	W L W W W
5	Barcelona	16	D L W W W
6	Chelsea	16	D W L W W

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

65 Possession 35

8 Shots 6

19 Shots 13

0 Offsides 2

4 Shots Off Goal 5

8 Shots On Goal 6

19 Total Shots 13

65 Ball Possession 35

538 Passes Accurate 260

604 Total Passes 327

89% Passes % 80%

7 Blocked Shots 2

4 Goalkeeper Saves 5

10 Fouls 4

0 Red Cards 0

0 Yellow Cards 1

9 Corner Kicks 6

14 Shots Insidebox 8

5 Shots Outsidebox 5

2.66 expected_goals 1.30

0 goals_prevented 0

Newcastle — Player Statistics

Player	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Aaron Ramsdale	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	32	G	7.2	False	0	2	4	-	-	26	-	30	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Aidan Harris	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	58	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Alex Murphy	-	-	-	7	5	-	-	False	90	37	D	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	46	1	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	3
👤 Anthony Elanga	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	20	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Anthony Gordon	3	-	3	5	4	-	1	False	36	10	F	7.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	16	4	21	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Dan Burn	-	-	-	2	1	2	-	False	90	33	D	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	84	-	89	1	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Harvey Barnes	4	-	2	9	5	1	2	False	90	11	F	8	False	1	0	-	-	-	27	3	34	-	-	-	2	2	-	-	-
👤 Jacob Murphy	3	2	3	13	7	2	1	False	87	23	F	7.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	30	-	35	-	-	-	-	2	1	-	3
👤 Joe Willock	3	-	1	5	2	-	-	False	36	28	M	6.5	True	0	0	-	-	-	24	1	26	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Joelinton	2	1	2	10	4	3	-	False	54	7	M	7.3	False	0	0	-	1	-	34	-	34	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	2
👤 John Ruddy	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	26	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Kieran Trippier	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	True	54	2	D	7	False	1	0	-	-	-	56	2	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Leo Shahar	1	-	1	1	1	-	-	False	3	61	D	-	True	0	0	-	-	-	9	-	10	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Lewis Hall	-	-	-	2	1	-	-	False	36	3	D	6.5	True	0	0	-	-	-	24	-	28	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	1
👤 Nick Pope	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	1	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Nick Woltemade	-	-	-	9	5	-	-	False	90	27	M	7	False	0	0	-	-	-	22	3	28	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	2
👤 Sandro Tonali	1	1	-	6	3	1	-	False	90	8	M	8.7	False	0	0	-	1	-	75	3	81	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	2
👤 Sean Neave	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	62	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Sven Botman	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	False	54	4	D	7.5	False	0	0	-	1	-	60	-	66	-	-	-	2	2	-	-	-
👤 William Osula	2	1	-	10	4	1	-	False	73	18	F	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	2	-	3	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	3
👤 Yoane Wissa	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	17	9	F	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	3	-	4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Qarabag — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.missed	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Abbas Hüseynov	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	30	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Abdellah Zoubir	0	1	1	1	6	3	-	-	False	79	10	F	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	39	-	42	-	0	-	-	1	2	-	-	2
👤 Amin Ramazanov	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	89	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Bədavi Hüseynov	0	1	-	1	6	4	-	-	True	90	55	D	6.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	21	-	28	-	0	-	-	-	1	2	2	1
👤 Camilo Duran	0	1	-	-	4	1	-	-	False	69	17	F	7.9	False	0	0	-	1	1	10	-	11	-	0	-	-	2	2	-	-	1
👤 Dani Bolt	0	2	4	1	15	6	1	-	False	90	18	M	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	14	-	17	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	4	3
👤 Elvin Jafarguliyev	0	4	2	2	7	3	-	-	False	79	44	M	7.9	False	0	0	-	1	1	30	-	35	-	0	-	-	1	1	1	1	1
👤 Emmanuel Addai	0	-	1	-	1	-	-	-	False	11	11	F	6.5	True	0	0	-	-	-	2	-	5	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 Fabijan Buntić	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	97	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Hikmat Cabrayilzada	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	32	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Joni Montiel	0	2	-	-	4	1	-	1	False	62	9	F	6.2	False	1	0	-	-	-	11	3	15	-	0	-	-	-	1	-	1	-
👤 Kady Borges	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	28	20	M	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	9	2	11	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 Kevin Medina	0	3	1	-	15	9	1	5	False	90	81	D	7.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	34	-	43	-	0	-	-	-	-	3	2	4
👤 Leandro Andrade	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	15	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Marko Janković	0	-	-	-	3	2	-	2	False	79	8	M	5.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	43	1	48	-	1	-	-	1	1	-	1	-
👤 Mateusz Kochalski	0	-	-	-	3	2	-	-	False	90	99	G	6.9	False	0	3	5	-	-	10	-	23	-	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Matheus Silva	0	-	2	-	7	3	1	1	False	90	2	D	5.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	15	-	20	-	0	-	-	-	1	-	2	-
👤 Musa Qurbanlı	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	11	22	F	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Oleksiy Kashchuk	0	1	-	-	1	-	-	-	False	21	21	M	6.5	True	0	0	-	-	-	1	-	2	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Pedro Bicalho	1	-	1	-	6	3	-	-	False	90	35	M	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	20	-	25	-	0	-	-	-	1	1	3	3
👤 Toral Bayramov	0	-	-	-	3	1	1	-	False	11	27	D	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	1	-	2	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

League standings

Full table

Teams in this match: Newcastle and Qarabag

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal		8	8	0	0	23	4	19	24	W W W W W
2	Bayern München		8	7	0	1	22	8	14	21	W L W W W
3	Liverpool		8	6	0	2	20	8	12	18	W L W W W
4	Tottenham		8	5	2	1	17	7	10	17	W L W W W
5	Barcelona		8	5	1	2	22	14	8	16	D L W W W
6	Chelsea		8	5	1	2	17	10	7	16	D W L W W
7	Sporting CP		8	5	1	2	17	11	6	16	D W L W W
8	Manchester City		8	5	1	2	15	9	6	16	W L W L W
9	Real Madrid		8	5	0	3	21	12	9	15	L W L W L
10	Inter		8	5	0	3	15	7	8	15	W L L L W
11	Paris Saint Germain		8	4	2	2	21	11	10	14	L W D L D
12	Newcastle	3-2	8	4	2	2	17	7	10	14	W L D W D
13	Juventus		8	3	4	1	14	10	4	13	D W W W D
14	Atletico Madrid		8	4	1	3	17	15	2	13	W W W D L
15	Atalanta		8	4	1	3	10	10	0	13	W W W L L
16	Bayer Leverkusen		8	3	3	2	13	14	-1	12	W W D L W
17	Borussia Dortmund		8	3	2	3	19	17	2	11	L W D L L
18	Olympiakos Piraeus		8	3	2	3	10	14	-4	11	D L W W W
19	Club Brugge KV		8	3	1	4	15	17	-2	10	D L L W W
20	Galatasaray		8	3	1	4	9	11	-2	10	W L L D L
21	Monaco		8	2	4	2	8	14	-6	10	W D W L D
22	Qarabag	3-2	8	3	1	4	13	21	-8	10	D L L W L
23	Bodo/Glimt		8	2	3	3	14	15	-1	9	L L D W W
24	Benfica		8	3	0	5	10	12	-2	9	L W W L W
25	Marseille		8	3	0	5	11	14	-3	9	L W W L L
26	Pafos		8	2	3	3	8	11	-3	9	W D L L W
27	Union St. Gilloise		8	3	0	5	8	17	-9	9	L W L L W
28	PSV Eindhoven		8	2	2	4	16	16	0	8	D W L L L
29	Athletic Club		8	2	2	4	9	14	-5	8	L D D W L
30	Napoli		8	2	2	4	9	15	-6	8	D W L D L
31	FC Copenhagen		8	2	2	4	12	21	-9	8	L W W D L
32	Ajax		8	2	0	6	8	21	-13	6	L L W W L
33	Eintracht Frankfurt		8	1	1	6	10	21	-11	4	D L L L L
34	Slavia Praha		8	0	3	5	5	19	-14	3	L D L L L
35	Villarreal		8	0	1	7	5	18	-13	1	L L L L L
36	Kairat Almaty		8	0	1	7	7	22	-15	1	L L L L L

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Our prediction i

Full predictions

Teams in this match: Newcastle and Qarabag

#	Team	MP	Pred Pts	Pred #
1	Arsenal	8	27	1
2	Bayern München	8	22	2
3	Liverpool	8	18	3
4	Tottenham	8	17	4
5	Barcelona	8	16	5
6	Chelsea	8	16	6
7	Sporting CP	8	16	7
8	Manchester City	8	16	8
9	Real Madrid	8	15	10
10	Inter	8	15	11
11	Paris Saint Germain	8	15	9
12	Newcastle	8	14	12
13	Juventus	8	13	13
14	Atletico Madrid	8	13	13
15	Atalanta	8	13	15
16	Bayer Leverkusen	8	12	16
17	Borussia Dortmund	8	11	17
18	Olympiakos Piraeus	8	11	18
19	Club Brugge KV	8	10	19
20	Galatasaray	8	10	20
21	Monaco	8	10	21
22	Qarabag	8	10	22
23	Bodo/Glimt	8	9	23
24	Benfica	8	9	24
25	Marseille	8	9	25
26	Pafos	8	9	26
27	Union St. Gilloise	8	9	27
28	PSV Eindhoven	8	8	28
29	Athletic Club	8	8	29
30	Napoli	8	8	30
31	FC Copenhagen	8	8	31
32	Ajax	8	6	32
33	Eintracht Frankfurt	8	4	33
34	Slavia Praha	8	3	34
35	Villarreal	8	1	35
36	Kairat Almaty	8	1	36

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Predict the score

Loading API predictions…

CatBoost Prediction

Model not available yet. Run train_catboost to train a model.

Qualification Prediction Based on 5000 simulations

Newcastle

100.0%

Qarabag

0.0%

Match Type: Two-leg tie

First leg: Qarabag 1-6 Newcastle

Current aggregate: 9-3

Method: Monte Carlo (Dixon-Coles + Elo fallback, elo-weighted ET/PEN)

How was this calculated?

We simulate this knockout matchup using scoreline probabilities from Dixon-Coles where available, with an Elo fallback when needed. For two-leg ties we aggregate both legs and count who advances; for single-match knockouts and aggregate-level ties we resolve the shootout step with an elo-weighted draw rather than a 50/50 flip.

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

57.9%

Home Win

22.9%

Draw

19.2%

Away Win

Expected Goals

Newcastle 2.06

Qarabag 1.12

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

Newcastle

Qarabag

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Qualification %

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)