Real Madrid vs Manchester City

UEFA Champions League

Manchester City

Coach : Guardiola

11 Mar 2026

21:00

First Leg Second Leg

Aggregate 5 - 1

Score Summary

Real Madrid

3 0

FT HT 3–0

Manchester City

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

47% Win

Real Madrid 1607 1618 ▲ 11

53% Win

Manchester City 1625 1614 ▼ -11

xPi Expected win probability

43% Win

Real Madrid 0.74 0.83 ▲ 0.09

36% Win

Manchester City 0.87 0.88 ▲ 0.01

Top Performers

Top Rated

Federico Valverde

Real Madrid

10.0

10.0 rating · 90 min

Most Clinical

Federico Valverde

Real Madrid

10.0

3 goals

Best Creator

Thibaut Courtois

Real Madrid

8.5

1 key passes · 1 assists

Defensive Leader

Fran García

Real Madrid

6.6

2 tackles · 4 interceptions

Match Momentum

Real Madrid 64% Manchester City 36%

Key Stats Snapshot

40 Possession 60

12 Shots 8

7 On Target 4

Form Context

Real Madrid

L W L W L

Manchester City

W L W L W

Smart Insight

Real Madrid controlled momentum for most phases of play.
Real Madrid generated the clearer shot volume edge.
Elo movement favors Real Madrid after this result.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 40.9%

Draw 25.4%

Away Win 33.6%

Expected Goals 1.68 - 1.51

Qualification %

Real Madrid 100.0%

Manchester City 0.0%

Based on 5000 simulations

Standings (Top 6)

Full table

#	Team	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal	24	W W W W W
2	Bayern München	21	W L W W W
3	Liverpool	18	W L W W W
4	Tottenham	17	W L W W W
5	Barcelona	16	D L W W W
6	Chelsea	16	D W L W W

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

40 Possession 60

7 Shots 4

12 Shots 8

1 Offsides 0

2 Shots Off Goal 2

7 Shots On Goal 4

12 Total Shots 8

40 Ball Possession 60

330 Passes Accurate 510

381 Total Passes 566

87% Passes % 90%

3 Blocked Shots 2

4 Goalkeeper Saves 4

11 Fouls 13

0 Red Cards 0

0 Yellow Cards 2

1 Corner Kicks 10

10 Shots Insidebox 5

2 Shots Outsidebox 3

2.63 expected_goals 0.59

1 goals_prevented 1

Real Madrid — Player Statistics

Player	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.missed	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Andriy Lunin	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	13	G	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Antonio Rüdiger	-	-	-	4	4	-	-	False	90	22	D	7.6	False	0	-	-	-	38	-	41	-	0	-	-	-	-	1	1	2
👤 Arda Güler	2	-	1	8	5	1	-	False	70	15	M	7	False	0	-	-	-	25	1	28	-	0	-	-	-	1	-	1	2
👤 Aurélien Tchouaméni	-	-	-	7	5	2	2	False	90	14	M	7.2	False	0	-	-	-	27	-	29	-	0	-	-	-	-	1	-	2
👤 Brahim Díaz	3	-	1	9	3	3	1	False	76	21	F	7.5	False	1	-	-	-	14	1	16	-	0	-	-	2	2	-	-	1
👤 César Palacios	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	38	M	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Daniel Carvajal	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	11	2	D	6.9	True	0	-	-	-	3	-	3	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Dean Huijsen	-	1	-	4	2	-	1	False	90	24	D	7.2	False	0	-	-	-	44	-	47	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Diego Aguado	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	27	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Eduardo Camavinga	-	-	-	5	5	-	2	False	20	6	M	7.3	True	0	-	-	-	7	-	8	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Federico Valverde	7	-	4	18	11	1	-	True	90	8	M	10	False	0	-	3	-	34	2	45	-	0	-	-	3	3	-	1	4
👤 Ferland Mendy	2	-	1	4	3	-	1	False	45	23	D	7.2	False	0	-	-	-	18	-	20	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
👤 Fran García	-	1	-	4	2	-	-	False	45	20	D	6.6	True	0	-	-	-	9	-	11	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	4	2
👤 Fran González	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	26	G	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Franco Mastantuono	1	1	-	6	1	2	-	False	14	30	F	6.2	True	0	-	-	-	3	-	3	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Gonzalo García	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	16	F	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jorge Cestero	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	28	M	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Manuel Ángel Morán	1	-	-	4	2	1	1	False	14	37	M	6.7	True	0	-	-	-	4	-	4	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Raúl Asencio	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	17	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Thiago Pitarch	-	5	-	6	1	-	-	False	76	45	M	6.2	False	0	-	-	-	32	-	34	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Thibaut Courtois	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	False	90	1	G	8.5	False	1	4	-	-	28	1	37	-	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Trent Alexander-Arnold	1	3	1	6	3	-	-	False	83	12	D	7	False	0	-	-	-	27	1	33	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Vinícius Júnior	2	1	-	8	4	1	3	False	90	7	F	7.5	False	0	-	-	1	17	2	22	-	1	-	1	2	3	-	-	1

Manchester City — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Abdukodir Khusanov	0	-	1	-	5	2	-	1	False	90	45	D	5.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	87	-	91	-	-	-	-	-	-	5	1
👤 Antoine Semenyo	0	2	1	2	8	3	2	1	False	69	42	F	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	21	-	26	-	-	-	2	2	1	-	-
👤 Bernardo Silva	0	-	1	-	5	2	-	-	True	70	20	M	6.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	34	2	37	-	-	-	-	1	1	-	2
👤 Erling Haaland	0	-	-	-	2	-	1	-	False	82	9	F	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	3	-	7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Gianluigi Donnarumma	1	-	1	-	2	-	1	-	False	90	25	G	7.5	False	0	3	4	-	-	15	-	17	1	1	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 James Trafford	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	1	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 John Stones	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	5	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jérémy Doku	0	13	1	7	22	11	-	2	False	90	11	M	7.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	23	-	28	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Marc Guéhi	0	-	3	-	11	5	1	-	False	90	15	D	6	False	0	0	-	-	-	65	1	69	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
👤 Marcus Bettinelli	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	13	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Matheus Nunes	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	27	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Max Alleyne	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	68	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Nathan Aké	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	6	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Nico González	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	14	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Nico O'Reilly	0	1	-	-	10	2	3	-	False	90	33	D	5.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	25	-	28	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	2
👤 Omar Marmoush	0	-	-	-	2	1	-	1	False	8	7	F	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	3	-	3	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Phil Foden	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	47	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Rayan Aït-Nouri	1	-	-	-	7	4	2	3	False	20	21	D	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	13	-	13	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Rayan Cherki	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	21	10	M	6.6	True	0	0	-	-	-	26	-	31	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Rodri	0	5	-	3	11	7	1	1	False	90	16	M	7.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	90	1	102	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	3
👤 Rúben Dias	0	-	-	-	5	3	2	1	False	90	3	D	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	85	-	86	-	-	-	-	1	1	-	1
👤 Savinho	0	2	-	-	4	2	-	1	False	45	26	M	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	11	-	17	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
👤 Tijjani Reijnders	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	45	4	M	6.2	True	0	0	-	-	-	9	1	11	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

League standings

Full table

Teams in this match: Real Madrid and Manchester City

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal		8	8	0	0	23	4	19	24	W W W W W
2	Bayern München		8	7	0	1	22	8	14	21	W L W W W
3	Liverpool		8	6	0	2	20	8	12	18	W L W W W
4	Tottenham		8	5	2	1	17	7	10	17	W L W W W
5	Barcelona		8	5	1	2	22	14	8	16	D L W W W
6	Chelsea		8	5	1	2	17	10	7	16	D W L W W
7	Sporting CP		8	5	1	2	17	11	6	16	D W L W W
8	Manchester City	3-0	8	5	1	2	15	9	6	16	W L W L W
9	Real Madrid	3-0	8	5	0	3	21	12	9	15	L W L W L
10	Inter		8	5	0	3	15	7	8	15	W L L L W
11	Paris Saint Germain		8	4	2	2	21	11	10	14	L W D L D
12	Newcastle		8	4	2	2	17	7	10	14	W L D W D
13	Juventus		8	3	4	1	14	10	4	13	D W W W D
14	Atletico Madrid		8	4	1	3	17	15	2	13	W W W D L
15	Atalanta		8	4	1	3	10	10	0	13	W W W L L
16	Bayer Leverkusen		8	3	3	2	13	14	-1	12	W W D L W
17	Borussia Dortmund		8	3	2	3	19	17	2	11	L W D L L
18	Olympiakos Piraeus		8	3	2	3	10	14	-4	11	D L W W W
19	Club Brugge KV		8	3	1	4	15	17	-2	10	D L L W W
20	Galatasaray		8	3	1	4	9	11	-2	10	W L L D L
21	Monaco		8	2	4	2	8	14	-6	10	W D W L D
22	Qarabag		8	3	1	4	13	21	-8	10	D L L W L
23	Bodo/Glimt		8	2	3	3	14	15	-1	9	L L D W W
24	Benfica		8	3	0	5	10	12	-2	9	L W W L W
25	Marseille		8	3	0	5	11	14	-3	9	L W W L L
26	Pafos		8	2	3	3	8	11	-3	9	W D L L W
27	Union St. Gilloise		8	3	0	5	8	17	-9	9	L W L L W
28	PSV Eindhoven		8	2	2	4	16	16	0	8	D W L L L
29	Athletic Club		8	2	2	4	9	14	-5	8	L D D W L
30	Napoli		8	2	2	4	9	15	-6	8	D W L D L
31	FC Copenhagen		8	2	2	4	12	21	-9	8	L W W D L
32	Ajax		8	2	0	6	8	21	-13	6	L L W W L
33	Eintracht Frankfurt		8	1	1	6	10	21	-11	4	D L L L L
34	Slavia Praha		8	0	3	5	5	19	-14	3	L D L L L
35	Villarreal		8	0	1	7	5	18	-13	1	L L L L L
36	Kairat Almaty		8	0	1	7	7	22	-15	1	L L L L L

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Our prediction i

Full predictions

Teams in this match: Real Madrid and Manchester City

#	Team	MP	Pred Pts	Pred #
1	Arsenal	8	27	1
2	Bayern München	8	22	2
3	Liverpool	8	18	3
4	Tottenham	8	17	4
5	Barcelona	8	16	5
6	Chelsea	8	16	6
7	Sporting CP	8	16	7
8	Manchester City	8	16	8
9	Real Madrid	8	15	10
10	Inter	8	15	11
11	Paris Saint Germain	8	15	9
12	Newcastle	8	14	12
13	Juventus	8	13	13
14	Atletico Madrid	8	13	13
15	Atalanta	8	13	15
16	Bayer Leverkusen	8	12	16
17	Borussia Dortmund	8	11	17
18	Olympiakos Piraeus	8	11	18
19	Club Brugge KV	8	10	19
20	Galatasaray	8	10	20
21	Monaco	8	10	21
22	Qarabag	8	10	22
23	Bodo/Glimt	8	9	23
24	Benfica	8	9	24
25	Marseille	8	9	25
26	Pafos	8	9	26
27	Union St. Gilloise	8	9	27
28	PSV Eindhoven	8	8	28
29	Athletic Club	8	8	29
30	Napoli	8	8	30
31	FC Copenhagen	8	8	31
32	Ajax	8	6	32
33	Eintracht Frankfurt	8	4	33
34	Slavia Praha	8	3	34
35	Villarreal	8	1	35
36	Kairat Almaty	8	1	36

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Predict the score

Loading API predictions…

CatBoost Prediction

Model not available yet. Run train_catboost to train a model.

Qualification Prediction Based on 5000 simulations

Real Madrid

100.0%

Manchester City

0.0%

Match Type: Two-leg tie

First leg: Real Madrid 3-0 Manchester City

Current aggregate: 5-1

Method: Monte Carlo (Dixon-Coles + Elo fallback, elo-weighted ET/PEN)

How was this calculated?

We simulate this knockout matchup using scoreline probabilities from Dixon-Coles where available, with an Elo fallback when needed. For two-leg ties we aggregate both legs and count who advances; for single-match knockouts and aggregate-level ties we resolve the shootout step with an elo-weighted draw rather than a 50/50 flip.

Our predictions

xpi

Home Win 46.1%

Draw 19.0%

Away Win 35.0%

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

40.9%

Home Win

25.4%

Draw

33.6%

Away Win

Expected Goals

Real Madrid 1.68

Manchester City 1.51

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

Real Madrid

Manchester City

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Qualification %

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

xpi

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)