Bayern München vs Real Madrid

UEFA Champions League

Real Madrid

Coach : Z. Zidane

15 Apr 2026

21:00

Allianz Arena

First Leg Second Leg

Aggregate 6 - 4

Score Summary

Bayern München

4 3

FT HT 2–3

Real Madrid

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

63% Win

Bayern München 1708 1715 ▲ 7

37% Win

Real Madrid 1617 1609 ▼ -7

xPi Expected win probability

63% Win

Bayern München 1.67 1.57 ▼ -0.10

27% Win

Real Madrid 0.83 0.83 ▼ 0.00

Top Performers

Top Rated

Joshua Kimmich

Bayern München

8.7

8.7 rating · 92 min

Most Clinical

Arda Güler

Real Madrid

8.6

2 goals

Best Creator

Joshua Kimmich

Bayern München

8.7

4 key passes · 1 assists

Defensive Leader

Dayot Upamecano

Bayern München

7.0

5 tackles · 3 interceptions

Match Momentum

Bayern München 62% Real Madrid 38%

Key Stats Snapshot

69 Possession 31

20 Shots 12

8 On Target 5

Form Context

Bayern München

W L W W W

Real Madrid

L W L W L

Smart Insight

Bayern München controlled momentum for most phases of play.
Bayern München generated the clearer shot volume edge.
Elo movement favors Bayern München after this result.

Prediction (catboost)

Home Win 44.5%

Draw 22.2%

Away Win 33.3%

Qualification %

Bayern München 100.0%

Real Madrid 0.0%

Based on 5000 simulations

Standings (Top 6)

Full table

#	Team	Scr	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal		24	W W W W W
2	Bayern München	4-3	21	W L W W W
3	Liverpool		18	W L W W W
4	Tottenham		17	W L W W W
5	Barcelona		16	D L W W W
6	Chelsea		16	D W L W W

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

69 Possession 31

8 Shots 5

20 Shots 12

2 Offsides 1

5 Shots Off Goal 4

8 Shots On Goal 5

20 Total Shots 12

69 Ball Possession 31

561 Passes Accurate 218

634 Total Passes 280

88% Passes % 78%

7 Blocked Shots 3

2 Goalkeeper Saves 4

9 Fouls 12

0 Red Cards 1

1 Yellow Cards 4

9 Corner Kicks 2

14 Shots Insidebox 7

6 Shots Outsidebox 5

1.97 expected_goals 2.27

0 goals_prevented 0

Bayern München — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Aleksandar Pavlović	0	-	-	-	7	3	1	1	False	92	45	M	8.3	False	-	0	-	1	-	93	-	98	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	1
👤 Alphonso Davies	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	False	47	19	D	6.9	True	-	0	-	-	-	30	1	32	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Dayot Upamecano	0	-	-	-	9	7	-	-	False	92	2	D	7	False	1	0	-	-	-	59	2	65	-	-	-	-	2	1	3	5
👤 Harry Kane	0	1	2	-	9	3	1	2	False	92	9	F	7.3	False	-	0	-	1	-	21	2	27	-	-	-	2	3	-	1	-
👤 Hiroki Itō	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	21	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jamal Musiala	0	-	1	-	5	2	-	2	False	31	10	M	6.9	True	1	0	-	-	-	15	1	16	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jonas Urbig	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	40	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jonathan Tah	0	-	1	-	1	-	-	-	False	92	4	D	6.5	False	-	0	-	-	-	41	-	41	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-
👤 Joshua Kimmich	0	-	-	-	5	5	-	-	False	92	6	M	8.7	False	1	0	-	-	-	102	4	118	-	-	-	1	1	-	2	4
👤 Josip Stanišić	1	1	1	1	4	2	-	-	False	45	44	D	5.9	False	-	0	-	-	-	21	1	25	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	1
👤 Kim Min-jae	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	3	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Konrad Laimer	0	1	2	1	9	3	4	1	False	92	27	D	6	False	-	0	-	-	-	40	-	45	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1
👤 Leon Goretzka	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	8	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Leonard Prescott	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	37	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Luis Díaz	0	4	1	2	17	7	1	1	False	92	14	M	8	False	-	0	-	1	2	45	1	50	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	2
👤 Manuel Neuer	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	True	92	1	G	5.9	False	-	3	2	-	-	14	-	23	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Michael Olise	0	5	-	2	10	5	1	3	False	92	17	M	7.3	False	-	0	-	-	-	54	2	65	-	-	-	1	2	-	-	-
👤 Nicolas Jackson	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	11	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Raphaël Guerreiro	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	22	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Serge Gnabry	0	1	-	1	7	3	1	1	False	61	7	M	6.2	False	-	0	-	-	-	26	-	29	-	-	-	1	2	-	-	-

Real Madrid — Player Statistics

Player	cards.red	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Andriy Lunin	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	92	13	G	6.7	False	-	3	4	-	-	17	-	32	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Antonio Rüdiger	0	1	-	-	-	6	3	2	1	False	92	22	D	6.9	False	-	0	-	-	-	26	-	29	-	-	-	-	-	3	1	1
👤 Arda Güler	0	0	-	1	-	5	3	1	1	False	90	15	M	8.6	False	-	0	-	2	-	21	-	30	-	-	-	2	2	-	-	2
👤 Brahim Díaz	0	0	1	-	-	5	2	-	2	False	62	21	M	6.9	False	-	0	-	-	-	10	2	11	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Dani Ceballos	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	19	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Daniel Carvajal	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	2	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 David Alaba	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	4	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Dean Huijsen	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	24	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Eduardo Camavinga	1	2	-	1	-	6	3	2	-	False	24	6	M	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	7	-	9	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	1
👤 Federico Valverde	0	0	3	2	3	9	5	1	-	True	92	8	M	6.7	False	-	0	-	-	-	22	-	30	-	-	-	1	1	2	-	1
👤 Ferland Mendy	0	0	1	-	1	5	2	2	1	False	92	23	D	6.2	False	-	0	-	-	-	21	-	23	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	-
👤 Fran García	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	20	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Fran González	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	26	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Franco Mastantuono	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	2	30	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Gonzalo García	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	16	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Javier Navarro Jimenez	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	29	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jude Bellingham	0	0	5	-	3	15	11	1	-	False	92	5	M	7.6	False	-	0	-	-	-	21	-	24	-	-	-	-	1	1	1	4
👤 Kylian Mbappé	0	0	2	-	1	3	2	-	-	False	92	10	F	8.3	False	-	0	-	1	1	22	3	24	-	-	-	2	2	-	-	1
👤 Thiago Pitarch	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	2	45	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Trent Alexander-Arnold	0	0	-	1	-	7	3	-	-	False	90	12	D	6.6	False	-	0	-	-	-	17	2	24	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	3
👤 Vinícius Júnior	0	0	2	1	-	12	2	1	2	False	92	7	F	6.3	False	1	0	-	-	-	12	2	15	-	-	-	-	3	-	1	-
👤 Álvaro Carreras	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	18	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Éder Militão	0	1	-	1	-	11	7	2	2	False	92	3	D	6.3	False	-	0	-	-	-	22	-	29	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1

League standings

Full table

Teams in this match: Bayern München and Real Madrid

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal		8	8	0	0	23	4	19	24	W W W W W
2	Bayern München	4-3	8	7	0	1	22	8	14	21	W L W W W
3	Liverpool		8	6	0	2	20	8	12	18	W L W W W
4	Tottenham		8	5	2	1	17	7	10	17	W L W W W
5	Barcelona		8	5	1	2	22	14	8	16	D L W W W
6	Chelsea		8	5	1	2	17	10	7	16	D W L W W
7	Sporting CP		8	5	1	2	17	11	6	16	D W L W W
8	Manchester City		8	5	1	2	15	9	6	16	W L W L W
9	Real Madrid	4-3	8	5	0	3	21	12	9	15	L W L W L
10	Inter		8	5	0	3	15	7	8	15	W L L L W
11	Paris Saint Germain		8	4	2	2	21	11	10	14	L W D L D
12	Newcastle		8	4	2	2	17	7	10	14	W L D W D
13	Juventus		8	3	4	1	14	10	4	13	D W W W D
14	Atletico Madrid		8	4	1	3	17	15	2	13	W W W D L
15	Atalanta		8	4	1	3	10	10	0	13	W W W L L
16	Bayer Leverkusen		8	3	3	2	13	14	-1	12	W W D L W
17	Borussia Dortmund		8	3	2	3	19	17	2	11	L W D L L
18	Olympiakos Piraeus		8	3	2	3	10	14	-4	11	D L W W W
19	Club Brugge KV		8	3	1	4	15	17	-2	10	D L L W W
20	Galatasaray		8	3	1	4	9	11	-2	10	W L L D L
21	Monaco		8	2	4	2	8	14	-6	10	W D W L D
22	Qarabag		8	3	1	4	13	21	-8	10	D L L W L
23	Bodo/Glimt		8	2	3	3	14	15	-1	9	L L D W W
24	Benfica		8	3	0	5	10	12	-2	9	L W W L W
25	Marseille		8	3	0	5	11	14	-3	9	L W W L L
26	Pafos		8	2	3	3	8	11	-3	9	W D L L W
27	Union St. Gilloise		8	3	0	5	8	17	-9	9	L W L L W
28	PSV Eindhoven		8	2	2	4	16	16	0	8	D W L L L
29	Athletic Club		8	2	2	4	9	14	-5	8	L D D W L
30	Napoli		8	2	2	4	9	15	-6	8	D W L D L
31	FC Copenhagen		8	2	2	4	12	21	-9	8	L W W D L
32	Ajax		8	2	0	6	8	21	-13	6	L L W W L
33	Eintracht Frankfurt		8	1	1	6	10	21	-11	4	D L L L L
34	Slavia Praha		8	0	3	5	5	19	-14	3	L D L L L
35	Villarreal		8	0	1	7	5	18	-13	1	L L L L L
36	Kairat Almaty		8	0	1	7	7	22	-15	1	L L L L L

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Our prediction i

Full predictions

Teams in this match: Bayern München and Real Madrid

#	Team	MP	Pred Pts	Pred #
1	Arsenal	8	27	1
2	Bayern München	8	22	2
3	Liverpool	8	18	3
4	Tottenham	8	17	4
5	Barcelona	8	16	5
6	Chelsea	8	16	6
7	Sporting CP	8	16	7
8	Manchester City	8	16	8
9	Real Madrid	8	15	10
10	Inter	8	15	11
11	Paris Saint Germain	8	15	9
12	Newcastle	8	14	12
13	Juventus	8	13	13
14	Atletico Madrid	8	13	13
15	Atalanta	8	13	15
16	Bayer Leverkusen	8	12	16
17	Borussia Dortmund	8	11	17
18	Olympiakos Piraeus	8	11	18
19	Club Brugge KV	8	10	19
20	Galatasaray	8	10	20
21	Monaco	8	10	21
22	Qarabag	8	10	22
23	Bodo/Glimt	8	9	23
24	Benfica	8	9	24
25	Marseille	8	9	25
26	Pafos	8	9	26
27	Union St. Gilloise	8	9	27
28	PSV Eindhoven	8	8	28
29	Athletic Club	8	8	29
30	Napoli	8	8	30
31	FC Copenhagen	8	8	31
32	Ajax	8	6	32
33	Eintracht Frankfurt	8	4	33
34	Slavia Praha	8	3	34
35	Villarreal	8	1	35
36	Kairat Almaty	8	1	36

Qualified — Round of 16

Knockout play-offs

Eliminated

Predict the score

Loading API predictions…

CatBoost Prediction

Model not available yet. Run train_catboost to train a model.

Qualification Prediction Based on 5000 simulations

Bayern München

100.0%

Real Madrid

0.0%

Match Type: Two-leg tie

First leg: Real Madrid 1-2 Bayern München

Current aggregate: 4-6

Method: Monte Carlo (Dixon-Coles + Elo fallback, elo-weighted ET/PEN)

How was this calculated?

We simulate this knockout matchup using scoreline probabilities from Dixon-Coles where available, with an Elo fallback when needed. For two-leg ties we aggregate both legs and count who advances; for single-match knockouts and aggregate-level ties we resolve the shootout step with an elo-weighted draw rather than a 50/50 flip.

Our predictions

catboost

Home Win 44.5%

Draw 22.2%

Away Win 33.3%

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

52.9%

Home Win

23.9%

Draw

23.2%

Away Win

Expected Goals

Bayern München 1.95

Real Madrid 1.24

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

Bayern München

Real Madrid

Prediction (catboost)

Qualification %

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

catboost

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)