Hamburger SV vs Holstein Kiel - Football Platform

PEN

DFB Pokal

Holstein Kiel

107' B. Jatta
118' P. Harres

03 Dec 2025

20:45

Volksparkstadion

Stadium

Volksparkstadion

Hamburg, Germany

Capacity: 57030 Surface: grass Address: Sylvester Allee 7

Score Summary

Hamburger SV

0 0

PEN HT 0–0

Holstein Kiel

B. Jatta 107'

118' P. Harres

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

50% Win

Hamburger SV 1492 1492 — 0

50% Win

Holstein Kiel 1493 1493 — 0

xPi Expected win probability

53% Win

Hamburger SV -0.10 -0.62 ▼ -0.51

32% Win

Holstein Kiel -0.17 -0.27 ▼ -0.09

Top Performers

Top Rated

Fábio Vieira

Hamburger SV

8.2

8.2 rating · 120 min

Most Clinical

Bakery Jatta

Hamburger SV

7.0

1 goals

Best Creator

Miro Muheim

Hamburger SV

7.3

4 key passes · 1 assists

Defensive Leader

Guilherme Ramos

Hamburger SV

6.9

6 tackles · 0 interceptions

Match Momentum

Hamburger SV 64% Holstein Kiel 36%

Key Stats Snapshot

56 Possession 44

20 Shots 19

7 On Target 4

Form Context

Hamburger SV

W W D

Holstein Kiel

W W D L

Smart Insight

Hamburger SV controlled momentum for most phases of play.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 48.6%

Draw 24.7%

Away Win 26.7%

Expected Goals 1.86 - 1.34

Qualification %

Hamburger SV 57.1%

Holstein Kiel 42.9%

Based on 5000 simulations

Standings (Top 6)

View full standings

#	Team	Pts	Form
1	Bayern München	15	W W W W W
2	VfB Stuttgart	13	D W W W W
3	Bayer Leverkusen	12	W W W W L
4	SC Freiburg	10	W W W D L
5	RB Leipzig	9	W W W L
6	Hertha BSC	8	D W W D

56 Possession 44

7 Shots 4

20 Shots 19

1 Offsides 1

9 Shots Off Goal 10

7 Shots On Goal 4

20 Total Shots 19

56 Ball Possession 44

485 Passes Accurate 346

579 Total Passes 449

84% Passes % 77%

4 Blocked Shots 5

3 Goalkeeper Saves 6

14 Fouls 15

0 Red Cards 0

3 Yellow Cards 6

4 Corner Kicks 8

13 Shots Insidebox 9

7 Shots Outsidebox 10

N/A expected_goals N/A

N/A goals_prevented N/A

Hamburger SV — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Aboubaka Soumahoro	0	1	-	1	2	1	-	-	False	22	22	D	5.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	15	-	15	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit	0	4	-	-	8	1	-	-	False	64	38	F	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	13	-	14	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
👤 Bakery Jatta	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	21	18	M	7	True	0	0	-	1	-	10	-	11	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Daniel Fernandes	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	1	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Daniel Peretz	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	120	26	G	6.6	False	0	1	3	-	-	31	-	51	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Emir Sahiti	0	4	1	1	9	5	-	1	False	56	29	F	7.2	True	0	0	-	-	-	23	2	29	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	3
👤 Fabio Baldé	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	45	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Fábio Vieira	0	-	-	-	8	6	1	4	False	120	20	M	8.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	36	3	41	-	-	-	3	3	1	-	2
👤 Giorgi Gocholeishvili	0	3	-	1	7	4	1	1	False	82	16	M	7	False	0	0	-	-	-	25	-	26	-	-	-	1	2	-	-	2
👤 Guilherme Ramos	0	1	-	1	17	10	4	1	False	120	13	D	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	54	-	66	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	6
👤 Jean-Luc Dompé	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	38	7	F	6.6	True	0	0	-	-	-	7	3	8	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Jonas Meffert	1	-	-	-	3	-	1	-	False	56	23	M	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	24	1	26	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	-
👤 Jordan Torunarigha	1	1	-	-	4	2	1	1	False	98	25	D	7.2	False	0	0	-	-	1	59	-	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1
👤 Luka Vušković	0	-	-	-	13	9	2	2	False	120	44	D	7.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	62	-	70	-	-	-	-	1	3	2	2
👤 Miro Muheim	0	4	1	4	13	10	-	3	True	120	28	M	7.3	False	1	0	-	-	-	64	4	79	-	-	-	-	4	1	1	2
👤 Nicolai Remberg	1	2	-	1	5	3	1	-	False	64	21	M	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	27	-	31	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer	0	2	1	-	16	4	1	1	False	99	11	F	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	13	1	18	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 Rayan Philippe	0	2	-	-	6	1	2	-	False	120	14	F	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	22	1	29	-	-	-	1	2	-	-	-
👤 William Mikelbrencis	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	2	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Holstein Kiel — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Adrián Kaprálik	0	4	1	1	12	4	2	1	False	94	20	F	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	6	2	9	-	-	-	-	4	-	-	2
👤 David Zec	1	-	-	-	6	5	-	2	False	120	26	D	7.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	65	1	74	-	-	-	-	2	-	3	2
👤 Frederik Roslyng	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	2	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Hamza Muqaj	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	48	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Ivan Nekić	1	-	-	-	3	1	-	-	False	42	13	D	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	14	-	19	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 John Tolkin	1	4	1	1	15	8	2	2	False	120	47	D	7.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	25	4	37	-	-	-	-	-	2	1	5
👤 Jonas Krumrey	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	21	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jonas Therkelsen	0	2	1	-	11	4	-	2	False	78	10	M	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	15	-	19	-	-	-	1	3	-	-	2
👤 Kasper Davidsen	1	1	1	-	9	5	2	-	False	60	15	M	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	12	-	15	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	5
👤 Lasse Rosenboom	1	1	-	-	11	8	-	1	False	105	23	D	7	False	0	0	-	-	-	10	1	22	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	4
👤 Louis Köster	0	1	-	-	7	3	2	3	False	26	45	F	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	1	-	2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Magnus Knudsen	0	1	4	1	7	1	2	-	False	120	24	M	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	52	1	56	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	-
👤 Marco Komenda	0	-	-	-	6	5	-	-	True	78	3	D	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	29	1	44	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	1
👤 Marcus Müller	0	-	-	-	1	-	1	-	False	15	25	F	6.5	True	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Marko Ivezić	1	1	-	-	8	5	1	-	False	120	6	D	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	53	-	65	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	5
👤 Mladen Cvjetinović	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	17	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Niklas Niehoff	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	False	42	29	M	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	8	-	10	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Phil Harres	0	-	-	-	6	3	1	1	False	120	19	F	8	False	0	0	-	1	1	8	1	15	-	-	-	2	3	-	1	1
👤 Stefan Schwab	0	-	1	-	8	2	2	1	False	60	22	M	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	16	-	20	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
👤 Timon Weiner	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	120	1	G	8.2	False	0	1	6	-	-	32	-	42	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-

League standings

View standings

Teams in this match: Hamburger SV and Holstein Kiel

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Bayern München		5	5	0	0	14	5	9	15	W W W W W
2	VfB Stuttgart		5	4	1	0	12	4	8	13	D W W W W
3	Bayer Leverkusen		5	4	0	1	12	4	8	12	W W W W L
4	SC Freiburg		5	3	1	1	8	3	5	10	W W W D L
5	RB Leipzig		4	3	0	1	11	6	5	9	W W W L
6	Hertha BSC		4	2	2	0	9	1	8	8	D W W D
7	Hamburger SV	0-0	3	2	1	0	3	1	2	7	W W D
8	Holstein Kiel	0-0	4	2	1	1	3	3	0	7	W W D L
9	Union Berlin		3	2	0	1	9	4	5	6	W W L
10	1. FC Kaiserslautern		3	2	0	1	9	6	3	6	W W L
11	1. FC Magdeburg		3	2	0	1	7	4	3	6	W W L
12	SV Darmstadt 98		3	2	0	1	6	3	3	6	W W L
13	Borussia Mönchengladbach		3	2	0	1	7	5	2	6	W W L
14	VfL Bochum		3	2	0	1	4	3	1	6	W W L
15	FC St. Pauli		4	1	2	1	3	5	-2	5	D D W L
16	Eintracht Frankfurt		2	1	1	0	6	1	5	4	W D
17	1899 Hoffenheim		2	1	1	0	5	1	4	4	W D
18	Borussia Dortmund		3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4	W D L
19	VfL Wolfsburg		2	1	0	1	9	1	8	3	W L
20	1. FC Heidenheim		2	1	0	1	5	1	4	3	W L
21	Karlsruher SC		2	1	0	1	6	3	3	3	W L
22	SpVgg Greuther Fürth		2	1	0	1	2	1	1	3	W L
23	FC Augsburg		2	1	0	1	2	1	1	3	W L
24	SC Paderborn 07		2	1	0	1	5	5	0	3	W L
25	Fortuna Düsseldorf		2	1	0	1	5	5	0	3	W L
26	Arminia Bielefeld		2	1	0	1	2	2	0	3	W L
27	FSV Mainz 05		2	1	0	1	1	2	-1	3	W L
28	1. FC Köln		2	1	0	1	3	5	-2	3	W L
29	Energie Cottbus		2	1	0	1	2	4	-2	3	W L
30	SV Elversberg		2	1	0	1	1	3	-2	3	W L
31	FC Schalke 04		2	1	0	1	1	4	-3	3	W L
32	1. FC Nürnberg		1	0	1	0	3	3	0	1	D
33	Eintracht Braunschweig		1	0	1	0	3	3	0	1	D
34	Eintracht Norderstedt		1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	D
35	Preußen Münster		1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	D
36	Illertissen		2	0	1	1	3	6	-3	1	D L
37	Atlas Delmenhorst		1	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0	L
38	SV Wehen		1	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0	L
39	Pirmasens		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
40	VfB Lübeck		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
41	SSV Jahn Regensburg		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
42	Werder Bremen		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
43	Hannover 96		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
44	Lokomotive Leipzig		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
45	SSV Ulm 1846		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
46	Dynamo Dresden		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
47	Rot-Weiß Essen		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
48	SV Sandhausen		1	0	0	1	2	4	-2	0	L
49	FC Schweinfurt 05		1	0	0	1	2	4	-2	0	L
50	FC Saarbrücken		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
51	BFC Dynamo		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
52	FC Viktoria Köln		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
53	Sportfreunde Lotte		1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	L
54	BW Lohne		1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	L
55	Hallescher FC		1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	L
56	FC 08 Homburg		1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	L
57	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach		1	0	0	1	0	4	-4	0	L
58	Hansa Rostock		1	0	0	1	0	4	-4	0	L
59	FC Gutersloh		1	0	0	1	0	5	-5	0	L
60	Bahlinger SC		1	0	0	1	0	5	-5	0	L
61	FV Engers 07		1	0	0	1	0	5	-5	0	L
62	ZFC Meuselwitz		1	0	0	1	0	5	-5	0	L
63	RSV Eintracht		1	0	0	1	0	7	-7	0	L
64	Hemelingen		1	0	0	1	0	9	-9	0	L

Predict the score

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CatBoost Prediction

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Qualification Prediction Based on 5000 simulations

Hamburger SV

57.1%

Holstein Kiel

42.9%

Match Type: Single match knockout

Method: Monte Carlo (Dixon-Coles + Elo fallback, elo-weighted ET/PEN)

How was this calculated?

We simulate this knockout matchup using scoreline probabilities from Dixon-Coles where available, with an Elo fallback when needed. For two-leg ties we aggregate both legs and count who advances; for single-match knockouts and aggregate-level ties we resolve the shootout step with an elo-weighted draw rather than a 50/50 flip.

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

48.6%

Home Win

24.7%

Draw

26.7%

Away Win

Expected Goals

Hamburger SV 1.86

Holstein Kiel 1.34

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

Hamburger SV

Holstein Kiel

Volksparkstadion

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Qualification %

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)