Bayer Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli

DFB Pokal

FC St. Pauli

Coach : A. Blessin

03 Feb 2026

20:45

BayArena

Stadium

BayArena

Leverkusen, Germany

Capacity: 30210 Surface: grass Address: Bismarckstr. 122-124

Score Summary

Bayer Leverkusen

3 0

FT HT 1–0

FC St. Pauli

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

66% Win

Bayer Leverkusen 1560 1567 ▲ 7

34% Win

FC St. Pauli 1444 1437 ▼ -7

xPi Expected win probability

63% Win

Bayer Leverkusen 0.41 0.54 ▲ 0.13

27% Win

FC St. Pauli -0.43 -0.58 ▼ -0.16

Top Performers

Top Rated

Robert Andrich

Bayer Leverkusen

9.3

9.3 rating · 90 min

Most Clinical

Martin Terrier

Bayer Leverkusen

8.0

1 goals

Best Creator

Aleix García

Bayer Leverkusen

7.7

1 key passes · 1 assists

Defensive Leader

Exequiel Palacios

Bayer Leverkusen

7.9

4 tackles · 2 interceptions

Match Momentum

Bayer Leverkusen 80% FC St. Pauli 20%

Key Stats Snapshot

61 Possession 39

8 Shots 10

4 On Target 1

Form Context

Bayer Leverkusen

W W W W L

FC St. Pauli

D D W L

Smart Insight

Bayer Leverkusen controlled momentum for most phases of play.
FC St. Pauli produced more shot pressure than expected.
Elo movement favors Bayer Leverkusen after this result.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 56.2%

Draw 23.2%

Away Win 20.6%

Expected Goals 2.03 - 1.17

Qualification %

Bayer Leverkusen 100.0%

FC St. Pauli 0.0%

Based on 5000 simulations

Standings (Top 6)

View full standings

#	Team	Scr	Pts	Form
1	Bayern München		15	W W W W W
2	VfB Stuttgart		13	D W W W W
3	Bayer Leverkusen	3-0	12	W W W W L
4	SC Freiburg		10	W W W D L
5	RB Leipzig		9	W W W L
6	Hertha BSC		8	D W W D

61 Possession 39

4 Shots 1

8 Shots 10

2 Offsides 2

2 Shots Off Goal 3

4 Shots On Goal 1

8 Total Shots 10

61 Ball Possession 39

726 Passes Accurate 413

799 Total Passes 503

91% Passes % 82%

2 Blocked Shots 6

N/A Goalkeeper Saves N/A

6 Fouls 14

0 Red Cards 0

1 Yellow Cards 2

4 Corner Kicks 5

6 Shots Insidebox 7

2 Shots Outsidebox 3

N/A expected_goals N/A

N/A goals_prevented N/A

Bayer Leverkusen — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Aleix García	1	-	1	-	2	-	1	-	False	89	24	M	7.7	False	1	-	-	-	133	1	141	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 Alejandro Grimaldo	0	1	-	-	5	1	-	-	False	90	20	M	7.3	False	1	-	-	1	57	1	62	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Arthur	0	1	-	1	3	1	1	-	False	32	13	D	6.7	True	0	-	-	-	10	-	13	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	-
👤 Axel Tape	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	16	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Christian Kofane	0	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	False	1	35	F	-	True	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Edmond Tapsoba	0	-	-	-	2	1	-	-	False	90	12	D	7.5	False	0	-	-	-	97	-	105	-	-	-	-	-	1	4	-
👤 Ernest Poku	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	19	F	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Exequiel Palacios	0	3	-	1	12	9	-	4	False	58	25	M	7.9	False	0	-	-	-	89	-	93	-	-	-	-	-	1	2	4
👤 Ezequiel Fernández	0	-	1	-	3	1	-	1	False	32	6	M	6.6	True	0	-	-	-	42	1	44	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	-
👤 Janis Blaswich	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	28	G	6.2	False	0	-	-	-	13	-	22	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jarell Quansah	0	2	-	-	5	1	1	-	False	90	4	D	6.9	False	0	-	-	-	69	-	74	-	-	-	-	-	1	2	-
👤 Jonas Hofmann	0	-	1	-	1	-	-	-	False	25	7	M	7.5	True	0	-	1	-	17	-	18	-	-	-	1	2	-	-	-
👤 Jonas Omlin	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	18	G	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Loïc Badé	0	1	-	1	2	2	-	-	False	1	5	D	-	True	0	-	-	-	4	-	5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Lucas Vazquez	0	1	-	-	7	3	1	2	False	58	21	M	6.9	False	0	-	-	-	13	1	18	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1
👤 Malik Tillman	0	4	-	-	16	6	1	2	False	90	10	F	6.2	False	0	-	-	1	34	-	41	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	3
👤 Martin Terrier	0	2	1	1	9	4	1	2	False	65	11	F	8	False	0	-	1	-	30	2	30	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Montrell Culbreath	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	42	M	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Patrik Schick	0	3	1	3	10	5	-	1	False	89	14	F	7.7	False	0	-	1	-	12	-	16	-	-	-	2	2	-	-	-
👤 Robert Andrich	0	-	1	-	9	7	-	2	True	90	8	D	9.3	False	0	-	-	-	106	-	117	-	-	-	-	-	3	1	4

FC St. Pauli — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Abdoulie Ceesay	0	-	-	-	3	2	-	-	False	1	9	F	-	True	0	0	-	-	-	1	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Adam Dzwigala	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	25	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Arkadiusz Pyrka	0	3	1	1	8	4	1	2	False	90	11	M	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	30	1	35	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1
👤 Ben Voll	0	-	1	-	1	-	-	-	False	90	1	G	5.2	False	0	3	-	-	-	15	-	29	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Danel Sinani	0	2	-	1	8	5	1	-	False	90	10	F	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	1	39	1	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	4
👤 Jackson Irvine	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	False	22	7	M	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	18	-	20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 James Sands	0	-	-	-	8	4	3	1	False	90	6	D	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	67	-	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
👤 Jannik Thomas Robatsch	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	34	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Joel Chima Fujita	1	-	-	-	6	2	2	-	False	68	16	M	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	41	-	49	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	2
👤 Karol Mets	0	1	-	1	4	3	1	1	True	90	3	D	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	55	-	63	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-
👤 Lars Ritzka	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	21	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Louis Oppie	0	-	-	-	7	6	1	-	False	45	23	M	7	False	0	0	-	-	-	13	-	21	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	6
👤 Manolis Saliakas	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	45	2	D	6	True	0	0	-	-	-	22	-	28	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 Martijn Kaars	0	2	1	-	6	1	1	-	False	90	19	F	5.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	12	2	19	-	-	-	1	3	-	-	-
👤 Mathias Pereira Lage	0	1	-	-	6	2	1	1	False	45	28	F	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	1	12	2	14	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Mathias Rasmussen	0	2	3	2	11	8	-	1	False	89	20	M	7.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	45	2	54	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	4
👤 Nikola Vasilj	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	22	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Ricky-Jade Jones	0	1	-	1	4	1	1	-	False	35	26	F	6.5	True	0	0	-	-	-	1	-	2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Taichi Hara	0	-	-	-	2	-	1	-	False	10	18	F	6.5	True	0	0	-	-	-	1	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Tomoya Ando	1	-	1	-	12	7	1	-	False	90	15	D	6.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	41	-	48	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	5

League standings

View standings

Teams in this match: Bayer Leverkusen and FC St. Pauli

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Bayern München		5	5	0	0	14	5	9	15	W W W W W
2	VfB Stuttgart		5	4	1	0	12	4	8	13	D W W W W
3	Bayer Leverkusen	3-0	5	4	0	1	12	4	8	12	W W W W L
4	SC Freiburg		5	3	1	1	8	3	5	10	W W W D L
5	RB Leipzig		4	3	0	1	11	6	5	9	W W W L
6	Hertha BSC		4	2	2	0	9	1	8	8	D W W D
7	Hamburger SV		3	2	1	0	3	1	2	7	W W D
8	Holstein Kiel		4	2	1	1	3	3	0	7	W W D L
9	Union Berlin		3	2	0	1	9	4	5	6	W W L
10	1. FC Kaiserslautern		3	2	0	1	9	6	3	6	W W L
11	1. FC Magdeburg		3	2	0	1	7	4	3	6	W W L
12	SV Darmstadt 98		3	2	0	1	6	3	3	6	W W L
13	Borussia Mönchengladbach		3	2	0	1	7	5	2	6	W W L
14	VfL Bochum		3	2	0	1	4	3	1	6	W W L
15	FC St. Pauli	3-0	4	1	2	1	3	5	-2	5	D D W L
16	Eintracht Frankfurt		2	1	1	0	6	1	5	4	W D
17	1899 Hoffenheim		2	1	1	0	5	1	4	4	W D
18	Borussia Dortmund		3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4	W D L
19	VfL Wolfsburg		2	1	0	1	9	1	8	3	W L
20	1. FC Heidenheim		2	1	0	1	5	1	4	3	W L
21	Karlsruher SC		2	1	0	1	6	3	3	3	W L
22	SpVgg Greuther Fürth		2	1	0	1	2	1	1	3	W L
23	FC Augsburg		2	1	0	1	2	1	1	3	W L
24	SC Paderborn 07		2	1	0	1	5	5	0	3	W L
25	Fortuna Düsseldorf		2	1	0	1	5	5	0	3	W L
26	Arminia Bielefeld		2	1	0	1	2	2	0	3	W L
27	FSV Mainz 05		2	1	0	1	1	2	-1	3	W L
28	1. FC Köln		2	1	0	1	3	5	-2	3	W L
29	Energie Cottbus		2	1	0	1	2	4	-2	3	W L
30	SV Elversberg		2	1	0	1	1	3	-2	3	W L
31	FC Schalke 04		2	1	0	1	1	4	-3	3	W L
32	1. FC Nürnberg		1	0	1	0	3	3	0	1	D
33	Eintracht Braunschweig		1	0	1	0	3	3	0	1	D
34	Eintracht Norderstedt		1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	D
35	Preußen Münster		1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	D
36	Illertissen		2	0	1	1	3	6	-3	1	D L
37	Atlas Delmenhorst		1	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0	L
38	SV Wehen		1	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0	L
39	Pirmasens		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
40	VfB Lübeck		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
41	SSV Jahn Regensburg		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
42	Werder Bremen		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
43	Hannover 96		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
44	Lokomotive Leipzig		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
45	SSV Ulm 1846		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
46	Dynamo Dresden		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
47	Rot-Weiß Essen		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
48	SV Sandhausen		1	0	0	1	2	4	-2	0	L
49	FC Schweinfurt 05		1	0	0	1	2	4	-2	0	L
50	FC Saarbrücken		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
51	BFC Dynamo		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
52	FC Viktoria Köln		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
53	Sportfreunde Lotte		1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	L
54	BW Lohne		1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	L
55	Hallescher FC		1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	L
56	FC 08 Homburg		1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	L
57	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach		1	0	0	1	0	4	-4	0	L
58	Hansa Rostock		1	0	0	1	0	4	-4	0	L
59	FC Gutersloh		1	0	0	1	0	5	-5	0	L
60	Bahlinger SC		1	0	0	1	0	5	-5	0	L
61	FV Engers 07		1	0	0	1	0	5	-5	0	L
62	ZFC Meuselwitz		1	0	0	1	0	5	-5	0	L
63	RSV Eintracht		1	0	0	1	0	7	-7	0	L
64	Hemelingen		1	0	0	1	0	9	-9	0	L

Predict the score

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CatBoost Prediction

Model not available yet. Run train_catboost to train a model.

Qualification Prediction Based on 5000 simulations

Bayer Leverkusen

100.0%

FC St. Pauli

0.0%

Match Type: Single match knockout

Method: Monte Carlo (Dixon-Coles + Elo fallback, elo-weighted ET/PEN)

How was this calculated?

We simulate this knockout matchup using scoreline probabilities from Dixon-Coles where available, with an Elo fallback when needed. For two-leg ties we aggregate both legs and count who advances; for single-match knockouts and aggregate-level ties we resolve the shootout step with an elo-weighted draw rather than a 50/50 flip.

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

56.2%

Home Win

23.2%

Draw

20.6%

Away Win

Expected Goals

Bayer Leverkusen 2.03

FC St. Pauli 1.17

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

Bayer Leverkusen

FC St. Pauli

BayArena

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Qualification %

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)