Holstein Kiel vs VfB Stuttgart

DFB Pokal

Holstein-Stadion

Kiel, Germany

Capacity: 15034 Surface: grass Address: Westring 501

Score Summary

Holstein Kiel

0 3

FT HT 0–0

VfB Stuttgart

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

38% Win

Holstein Kiel 1498 1491 ▼ -8

62% Win

VfB Stuttgart 1584 1591 ▲ 8

xPi Expected win probability

32% Win

Holstein Kiel -0.25 -0.27 ▼ -0.02

54% Win

VfB Stuttgart 0.49 0.48 ▼ -0.01

Top Performers

Top Rated

Chris Führich

VfB Stuttgart

8.2

8.2 rating · 89 min

Most Clinical

Atakan Karazor

VfB Stuttgart

7.2

1 goals

Best Creator

Deniz Undav

VfB Stuttgart

7.6

6 key passes · 1 assists

Defensive Leader

Angelo Stiller

VfB Stuttgart

7.7

7 tackles · 2 interceptions

Match Momentum

Holstein Kiel 38% VfB Stuttgart 62%

Key Stats Snapshot

40 Possession 60

11 Shots 16

3 On Target 5

Form Context

Holstein Kiel

W W D L

VfB Stuttgart

D W W W W

Smart Insight

VfB Stuttgart carried stronger momentum across the match profile.
VfB Stuttgart produced more shot pressure than expected.
Elo movement favors VfB Stuttgart after this result.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 26.5%

Draw 24.6%

Away Win 48.9%

Expected Goals 1.33 - 1.87

Qualification %

Holstein Kiel 0.0%

VfB Stuttgart 100.0%

Based on 5000 simulations

Standings (Top 6)

View full standings

#	Team	Scr	Pts	Form
1	Bayern München		15	W W W W W
2	VfB Stuttgart	0-3	13	D W W W W
3	Bayer Leverkusen		12	W W W W L
4	SC Freiburg		10	W W W D L
5	RB Leipzig		9	W W W L
6	Hertha BSC		8	D W W D

40 Possession 60

3 Shots 5

11 Shots 16

1 Offsides 2

5 Shots Off Goal 7

3 Shots On Goal 5

11 Total Shots 16

40 Ball Possession 60

316 Passes Accurate 485

389 Total Passes 566

81% Passes % 86%

3 Blocked Shots 4

2 Goalkeeper Saves 3

10 Fouls 14

0 Red Cards 0

0 Yellow Cards 1

4 Corner Kicks 5

6 Shots Insidebox 13

5 Shots Outsidebox 3

N/A expected_goals N/A

N/A goals_prevented N/A

Holstein Kiel — Player Statistics

Player	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Adrián Kaprálik	1	-	-	4	1	1	-	False	70	20	F	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	1	1	6	-	-	-	1	2	-	1	1
👤 Aldin Jakupovic	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	False	20	18	F	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	2	-	3	-	-	-	1	2	-	-	-
👤 Andu Yobel Kelati	3	1	2	10	6	1	3	False	85	16	M	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	18	-	24	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	1
👤 David Zec	1	1	-	10	6	-	3	False	90	26	D	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	36	-	41	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	3
👤 Frederik Roslyng	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	2	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Ivan Nekić	3	-	2	7	5	-	1	False	85	13	D	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	26	1	30	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	2
👤 John Tolkin	1	1	1	2	1	-	-	False	90	47	D	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	43	2	51	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 Jonas Krumrey	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	21	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jonas Meffert	1	2	-	9	3	2	-	False	90	28	M	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	50	-	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	3
👤 Jonas Therkelsen	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	False	20	10	M	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	3	-	4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Kasper Davidsen	2	1	1	7	2	2	-	False	70	15	M	7	False	0	0	-	-	-	18	1	24	-	-	-	-	-	3	2	1
👤 Lasse Rosenboom	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	23	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Leon Parduzi	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	40	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Marcus Müller	-	-	-	2	1	-	-	False	11	25	F	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	1	1	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Marko Ivezić	1	-	1	7	6	1	-	False	90	6	D	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	59	-	62	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	3
👤 Niklas Niehoff	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	11	29	M	6.5	True	0	0	-	-	-	4	-	5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Phil Harres	-	2	-	7	3	2	2	False	90	19	F	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	1	11	1	17	-	-	-	1	2	-	-	-
👤 Stefan Schwab	1	1	-	7	2	1	-	False	36	22	M	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	11	-	18	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Timon Weiner	-	2	-	3	1	-	-	True	90	1	G	6.9	False	0	3	2	-	-	27	-	35	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Umut Tohumcu	2	1	1	10	4	-	2	False	54	8	M	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	6	2	10	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	1

VfB Stuttgart — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Alexander Nübel	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	33	G	7.2	False	0	3	-	-	13	-	18	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Ameen Al-Dakhil	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	2	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Angelo Stiller	0	-	-	-	14	10	4	1	False	89	6	M	7.7	False	0	-	-	-	68	3	80	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	7
👤 Atakan Karazor	0	3	1	2	10	3	2	1	True	90	16	M	7.2	False	0	-	1	-	46	-	51	-	-	-	1	1	1	2	-
👤 Badredine Bouanani	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	1	27	F	-	True	0	-	-	-	2	-	2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Bilal El Khannouss	1	5	1	4	11	8	1	1	False	89	11	M	7.9	False	0	-	-	-	41	2	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	3
👤 Chema Andrés	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	1	30	M	-	True	0	-	-	-	4	-	4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Chris Führich	0	4	-	2	8	5	-	1	False	89	10	M	8.2	False	0	-	1	-	39	1	45	-	-	-	2	4	-	2	2
👤 Deniz Undav	0	-	1	-	7	2	2	-	False	90	26	F	7.6	False	1	-	1	1	23	6	33	-	-	-	1	3	-	-	2
👤 Ermedin Demirović	0	1	-	-	3	-	1	-	False	9	9	F	6.3	True	1	-	-	-	4	1	4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Fabian Bredlow	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	1	G	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Finn Jeltsch	0	1	-	1	1	1	-	-	False	1	29	D	-	True	0	-	-	-	2	-	2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jamie Leweling	0	2	3	1	12	3	-	1	False	81	18	M	6	False	0	-	-	1	24	-	30	-	-	-	1	3	-	-	-
👤 Jeff Chabot	0	1	1	-	6	3	-	1	False	90	24	D	7.6	False	0	-	-	-	68	-	74	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
👤 Jeremy Arevalo	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	25	F	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Josha Vagnoman	0	1	-	1	4	1	3	-	False	90	4	D	6.9	False	0	-	-	-	49	-	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Lorenz Assignon	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	22	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Maximilian Mittelstädt	0	-	1	-	5	4	-	-	False	90	7	D	7.3	False	0	-	-	-	44	-	57	-	-	-	-	1	2	4	2
👤 Pascal Stenzel	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	15	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Ramon Hendriks	0	1	-	1	6	4	1	3	False	90	3	D	7.2	False	0	-	-	-	58	-	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	-

League standings

View standings

Teams in this match: Holstein Kiel and VfB Stuttgart

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Bayern München		5	5	0	0	14	5	9	15	W W W W W
2	VfB Stuttgart	0-3	5	4	1	0	12	4	8	13	D W W W W
3	Bayer Leverkusen		5	4	0	1	12	4	8	12	W W W W L
4	SC Freiburg		5	3	1	1	8	3	5	10	W W W D L
5	RB Leipzig		4	3	0	1	11	6	5	9	W W W L
6	Hertha BSC		4	2	2	0	9	1	8	8	D W W D
7	Hamburger SV		3	2	1	0	3	1	2	7	W W D
8	Holstein Kiel	0-3	4	2	1	1	3	3	0	7	W W D L
9	Union Berlin		3	2	0	1	9	4	5	6	W W L
10	1. FC Kaiserslautern		3	2	0	1	9	6	3	6	W W L
11	1. FC Magdeburg		3	2	0	1	7	4	3	6	W W L
12	SV Darmstadt 98		3	2	0	1	6	3	3	6	W W L
13	Borussia Mönchengladbach		3	2	0	1	7	5	2	6	W W L
14	VfL Bochum		3	2	0	1	4	3	1	6	W W L
15	FC St. Pauli		4	1	2	1	3	5	-2	5	D D W L
16	Eintracht Frankfurt		2	1	1	0	6	1	5	4	W D
17	1899 Hoffenheim		2	1	1	0	5	1	4	4	W D
18	Borussia Dortmund		3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4	W D L
19	VfL Wolfsburg		2	1	0	1	9	1	8	3	W L
20	1. FC Heidenheim		2	1	0	1	5	1	4	3	W L
21	Karlsruher SC		2	1	0	1	6	3	3	3	W L
22	SpVgg Greuther Fürth		2	1	0	1	2	1	1	3	W L
23	FC Augsburg		2	1	0	1	2	1	1	3	W L
24	SC Paderborn 07		2	1	0	1	5	5	0	3	W L
25	Fortuna Düsseldorf		2	1	0	1	5	5	0	3	W L
26	Arminia Bielefeld		2	1	0	1	2	2	0	3	W L
27	FSV Mainz 05		2	1	0	1	1	2	-1	3	W L
28	1. FC Köln		2	1	0	1	3	5	-2	3	W L
29	Energie Cottbus		2	1	0	1	2	4	-2	3	W L
30	SV Elversberg		2	1	0	1	1	3	-2	3	W L
31	FC Schalke 04		2	1	0	1	1	4	-3	3	W L
32	1. FC Nürnberg		1	0	1	0	3	3	0	1	D
33	Eintracht Braunschweig		1	0	1	0	3	3	0	1	D
34	Eintracht Norderstedt		1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	D
35	Preußen Münster		1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	D
36	Illertissen		2	0	1	1	3	6	-3	1	D L
37	Atlas Delmenhorst		1	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0	L
38	SV Wehen		1	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0	L
39	Pirmasens		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
40	VfB Lübeck		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
41	SSV Jahn Regensburg		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
42	Werder Bremen		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
43	Hannover 96		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
44	Lokomotive Leipzig		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
45	SSV Ulm 1846		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
46	Dynamo Dresden		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
47	Rot-Weiß Essen		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
48	SV Sandhausen		1	0	0	1	2	4	-2	0	L
49	FC Schweinfurt 05		1	0	0	1	2	4	-2	0	L
50	FC Saarbrücken		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
51	BFC Dynamo		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
52	FC Viktoria Köln		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
53	Sportfreunde Lotte		1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	L
54	BW Lohne		1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	L
55	Hallescher FC		1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	L
56	FC 08 Homburg		1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	L
57	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach		1	0	0	1	0	4	-4	0	L
58	Hansa Rostock		1	0	0	1	0	4	-4	0	L
59	FC Gutersloh		1	0	0	1	0	5	-5	0	L
60	Bahlinger SC		1	0	0	1	0	5	-5	0	L
61	FV Engers 07		1	0	0	1	0	5	-5	0	L
62	ZFC Meuselwitz		1	0	0	1	0	5	-5	0	L
63	RSV Eintracht		1	0	0	1	0	7	-7	0	L
64	Hemelingen		1	0	0	1	0	9	-9	0	L

Predict the score

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CatBoost Prediction

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Qualification Prediction Based on 5000 simulations

Holstein Kiel

0.0%

VfB Stuttgart

100.0%

Match Type: Single match knockout

Method: Monte Carlo (Dixon-Coles + Elo fallback, elo-weighted ET/PEN)

How was this calculated?

We simulate this knockout matchup using scoreline probabilities from Dixon-Coles where available, with an Elo fallback when needed. For two-leg ties we aggregate both legs and count who advances; for single-match knockouts and aggregate-level ties we resolve the shootout step with an elo-weighted draw rather than a 50/50 flip.

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

26.5%

Home Win

24.6%

Draw

48.9%

Away Win

Expected Goals

Holstein Kiel 1.33

VfB Stuttgart 1.87

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

Holstein Kiel

VfB Stuttgart

Holstein-Stadion

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Qualification %

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)