Union Berlin vs Bayern München

DFB Pokal

Bayern München

Coach : V. Kompany

03 Dec 2025

20:45

An der alten Försterei

Score Summary

Union Berlin

2 3

FT HT 1–3

Bayern München

L. Querfeld 40'
L. Querfeld 55'

12' I. Ansah
24' H. Kane
45' D. Leite

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

36% Win

Union Berlin 1505 1497 ▼ -7

64% Win

Bayern München 1602 1609 ▲ 7

xPi Expected win probability

30% Win

Union Berlin -0.15 -0.29 ▼ -0.14

56% Win

Bayern München 1.02 1.57 ▲ 0.55

Top Performers

Top Rated

Joshua Kimmich

Bayern München

7.6

7.6 rating · 90 min

Most Clinical

Leopold Querfeld

Union Berlin

7.2

2 goals

Best Creator

Joshua Kimmich

Bayern München

7.6

2 key passes · 1 assists

Defensive Leader

Dayot Upamecano

Bayern München

7.3

9 tackles · 1 interceptions

Match Momentum

Union Berlin 54% Bayern München 46%

Key Stats Snapshot

40 Possession 60

18 Shots 6

7 On Target 6

Form Context

Union Berlin

W W L

Bayern München

W W W W W

Smart Insight

Union Berlin controlled momentum for most phases of play.
Union Berlin generated the clearer shot volume edge.
Elo movement favors Bayern München after this result.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 24.8%

Draw 24.3%

Away Win 51.0%

Expected Goals 1.29 - 1.91

Qualification %

Union Berlin 0.0%

Bayern München 100.0%

Based on 5000 simulations

Standings (Top 6)

View full standings

#	Team	Scr	Pts	Form
1	Bayern München	2-3	15	W W W W W
2	VfB Stuttgart		13	D W W W W
3	Bayer Leverkusen		12	W W W W L
4	SC Freiburg		10	W W W D L
5	RB Leipzig		9	W W W L
6	Hertha BSC		8	D W W D

40 Possession 60

7 Shots 6

18 Shots 6

2 Offsides 2

8 Shots Off Goal 0

7 Shots On Goal 6

18 Total Shots 6

40 Ball Possession 60

187 Passes Accurate 338

289 Total Passes 460

65% Passes % 73%

3 Blocked Shots 0

4 Goalkeeper Saves 5

14 Fouls 11

0 Red Cards 0

3 Yellow Cards 3

2 Corner Kicks 4

12 Shots Insidebox 3

6 Shots Outsidebox 3

N/A expected_goals N/A

N/A goals_prevented N/A

Union Berlin — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.scored	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Alex Král	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	33	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Aljoscha Kemlein	1	-	-	-	8	3	2	1	False	90	6	M	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	20	1	31	-	-	0	-	-	1	-	2	1
👤 András Schäfer	0	-	1	-	8	5	1	1	False	83	13	M	6.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	20	1	24	-	-	0	-	1	3	-	3	2
👤 Christopher Trimmel	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	28	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Danilho Doekhi	0	-	1	-	8	3	2	1	False	90	5	D	5.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	21	-	31	-	-	0	-	1	1	-	3	1
👤 Derrick Köhn	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	39	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Diogo Leite	0	2	2	-	12	5	2	2	False	90	4	D	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	24	2	36	-	-	0	1	-	1	1	4	3
👤 Frederik Ronnow	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	1	G	6.9	False	0	3	4	-	-	13	-	26	-	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Ilyas Ansah	1	3	-	-	23	6	2	2	False	90	10	F	6	False	0	0	-	-	2	10	1	11	-	-	0	-	2	3	-	-	2
👤 Janik Haberer	0	-	5	-	12	5	-	1	False	90	19	M	7	False	0	0	-	-	-	18	2	25	-	-	0	-	-	1	-	2	2
👤 Josip Juranović	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	18	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Leopold Querfeld	0	-	2	-	10	5	-	-	False	90	14	D	7.2	False	0	0	-	2	-	20	-	35	-	-	2	-	2	3	-	3	1
👤 Livan Burcu	1	-	-	-	1	-	1	-	False	14	9	F	6.5	True	0	0	-	-	-	2	-	2	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Marin Ljubičić	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	27	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Matheo Raab	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	31	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Rani Khedira	0	1	-	-	10	4	3	-	True	90	8	F	6.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	5	1	9	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Stanley N'Soki	0	1	-	1	1	1	-	-	False	9	34	D	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	2	-	3	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 Tim Skarke	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	14	21	M	6.6	True	0	0	-	-	-	1	1	2	-	-	0	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Tom Rothe	0	3	2	-	13	5	1	-	False	88	15	M	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	20	1	31	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	3	4
👤 Woo-Yeong Jeong	0	-	-	-	5	2	-	1	False	83	11	F	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	11	-	23	-	-	0	-	-	1	-	2	1

Bayern München — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Aleksandar Pavlović	0	-	-	-	2	1	-	-	False	49	45	M	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	28	-	32	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Dayot Upamecano	1	-	-	-	16	14	1	2	False	90	2	D	7.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	40	-	56	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	9
👤 Harry Kane	1	-	-	-	14	8	2	3	False	90	9	F	6.9	False	0	0	-	1	1	4	-	13	1	-	-	2	2	-	-	1
👤 Hiroki Itō	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	11	21	D	6.6	True	0	0	-	-	-	2	-	4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jonas Urbig	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	40	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jonathan Tah	0	-	-	-	6	6	1	2	False	90	4	D	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	44	-	52	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Joshua Kimmich	0	1	-	-	10	5	-	1	True	90	6	M	7.6	False	1	0	-	-	-	37	2	49	-	-	-	-	-	1	2	2
👤 Josip Stanišić	0	-	-	-	6	4	-	1	False	90	44	D	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	32	-	44	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1
👤 Kim Min-jae	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	False	11	3	D	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	1	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Konrad Laimer	0	3	-	1	13	7	2	1	False	86	27	D	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	31	2	46	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	5
👤 Lennart Karl	0	2	-	2	9	3	2	1	False	73	42	M	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	22	-	27	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Leon Goretzka	0	-	-	-	4	3	1	-	False	41	8	M	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	7	-	12	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	2
👤 Luis Díaz	0	5	-	5	14	7	2	1	False	90	14	M	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	1	23	1	31	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Manuel Neuer	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	1	G	7	False	0	2	5	-	-	35	-	48	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Michael Olise	0	8	-	5	15	8	-	2	False	86	17	M	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	28	-	37	-	-	-	2	2	-	-	1
👤 Nicolas Jackson	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	11	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Raphaël Guerreiro	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	22	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Sacha Boey	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	23	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Serge Gnabry	0	-	1	-	1	-	-	-	False	17	7	F	6.5	True	0	0	-	-	-	4	1	8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Tom Bischof	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	20	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

League standings

View standings

Teams in this match: Union Berlin and Bayern München

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Bayern München	2-3	5	5	0	0	14	5	9	15	W W W W W
2	VfB Stuttgart		5	4	1	0	12	4	8	13	D W W W W
3	Bayer Leverkusen		5	4	0	1	12	4	8	12	W W W W L
4	SC Freiburg		5	3	1	1	8	3	5	10	W W W D L
5	RB Leipzig		4	3	0	1	11	6	5	9	W W W L
6	Hertha BSC		4	2	2	0	9	1	8	8	D W W D
7	Hamburger SV		3	2	1	0	3	1	2	7	W W D
8	Holstein Kiel		4	2	1	1	3	3	0	7	W W D L
9	Union Berlin	2-3	3	2	0	1	9	4	5	6	W W L
10	1. FC Kaiserslautern		3	2	0	1	9	6	3	6	W W L
11	1. FC Magdeburg		3	2	0	1	7	4	3	6	W W L
12	SV Darmstadt 98		3	2	0	1	6	3	3	6	W W L
13	Borussia Mönchengladbach		3	2	0	1	7	5	2	6	W W L
14	VfL Bochum		3	2	0	1	4	3	1	6	W W L
15	FC St. Pauli		4	1	2	1	3	5	-2	5	D D W L
16	Eintracht Frankfurt		2	1	1	0	6	1	5	4	W D
17	1899 Hoffenheim		2	1	1	0	5	1	4	4	W D
18	Borussia Dortmund		3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4	W D L
19	VfL Wolfsburg		2	1	0	1	9	1	8	3	W L
20	1. FC Heidenheim		2	1	0	1	5	1	4	3	W L
21	Karlsruher SC		2	1	0	1	6	3	3	3	W L
22	SpVgg Greuther Fürth		2	1	0	1	2	1	1	3	W L
23	FC Augsburg		2	1	0	1	2	1	1	3	W L
24	SC Paderborn 07		2	1	0	1	5	5	0	3	W L
25	Fortuna Düsseldorf		2	1	0	1	5	5	0	3	W L
26	Arminia Bielefeld		2	1	0	1	2	2	0	3	W L
27	FSV Mainz 05		2	1	0	1	1	2	-1	3	W L
28	1. FC Köln		2	1	0	1	3	5	-2	3	W L
29	Energie Cottbus		2	1	0	1	2	4	-2	3	W L
30	SV Elversberg		2	1	0	1	1	3	-2	3	W L
31	FC Schalke 04		2	1	0	1	1	4	-3	3	W L
32	1. FC Nürnberg		1	0	1	0	3	3	0	1	D
33	Eintracht Braunschweig		1	0	1	0	3	3	0	1	D
34	Eintracht Norderstedt		1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	D
35	Preußen Münster		1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	D
36	Illertissen		2	0	1	1	3	6	-3	1	D L
37	Atlas Delmenhorst		1	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0	L
38	SV Wehen		1	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0	L
39	Pirmasens		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
40	VfB Lübeck		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
41	SSV Jahn Regensburg		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
42	Werder Bremen		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
43	Hannover 96		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
44	Lokomotive Leipzig		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
45	SSV Ulm 1846		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
46	Dynamo Dresden		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
47	Rot-Weiß Essen		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
48	SV Sandhausen		1	0	0	1	2	4	-2	0	L
49	FC Schweinfurt 05		1	0	0	1	2	4	-2	0	L
50	FC Saarbrücken		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
51	BFC Dynamo		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
52	FC Viktoria Köln		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
53	Sportfreunde Lotte		1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	L
54	BW Lohne		1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	L
55	Hallescher FC		1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	L
56	FC 08 Homburg		1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	L
57	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach		1	0	0	1	0	4	-4	0	L
58	Hansa Rostock		1	0	0	1	0	4	-4	0	L
59	FC Gutersloh		1	0	0	1	0	5	-5	0	L
60	Bahlinger SC		1	0	0	1	0	5	-5	0	L
61	FV Engers 07		1	0	0	1	0	5	-5	0	L
62	ZFC Meuselwitz		1	0	0	1	0	5	-5	0	L
63	RSV Eintracht		1	0	0	1	0	7	-7	0	L
64	Hemelingen		1	0	0	1	0	9	-9	0	L

Predict the score

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CatBoost Prediction

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Qualification Prediction Based on 5000 simulations

Union Berlin

0.0%

Bayern München

100.0%

Match Type: Single match knockout

Method: Monte Carlo (Dixon-Coles + Elo fallback, elo-weighted ET/PEN)

How was this calculated?

We simulate this knockout matchup using scoreline probabilities from Dixon-Coles where available, with an Elo fallback when needed. For two-leg ties we aggregate both legs and count who advances; for single-match knockouts and aggregate-level ties we resolve the shootout step with an elo-weighted draw rather than a 50/50 flip.

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

24.8%

Home Win

24.3%

Draw

51.0%

Away Win

Expected Goals

Union Berlin 1.29

Bayern München 1.91

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

Union Berlin

Bayern München

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Qualification %

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)