Racing Santander vs Villarreal

Copa del Rey

Villarreal

17 Dec 2025

19:00

El Sardinero

Score Summary

Racing Santander

2 1

FT HT 2–0

Villarreal

J. Arana 6'
J. Arana 28'

86' A. Perez

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

46% Win

Racing Santander 1510 1515 ▲ 5

54% Win

Villarreal 1539 1528 ▼ -11

xPi Expected win probability

37% Win

Racing Santander 0.00 -0.10 ▼ -0.10

38% Win

Villarreal 0.26 0.17 ▼ -0.09

Top Performers

Top Rated

Juan Carlos Arana

Racing Santander

9.2

9.2 rating · 61 min

Most Clinical

Juan Carlos Arana

Racing Santander

9.2

2 goals

Best Creator

Mario Garcia

Racing Santander

7.2

2 key passes · 1 assists

Defensive Leader

Mario Garcia

Racing Santander

7.2

3 tackles · 4 interceptions

Match Momentum

Racing Santander 50% Villarreal 50%

Key Stats Snapshot

33 Possession 67

10 Shots 22

5 On Target 5

Form Context

Racing Santander

W W W L

Villarreal

W D L

Smart Insight

Momentum stayed balanced with no clear sustained dominance.
Villarreal produced more shot pressure than expected.
Elo movement favors Racing Santander after this result.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 37.3%

Draw 25.4%

Away Win 37.3%

Expected Goals 1.61 - 1.61

Qualification %

Racing Santander 100.0%

Villarreal 0.0%

Based on 5000 simulations

Standings (Top 6)

View full standings

#	Team	Pts	Form
1	Real Sociedad	20	D W W W D
2	Atletico Madrid	13	W W W L D
3	Alaves	12	W W W W L
4	Valencia	12	W W W W L
5	Real Betis	12	W W W W L
6	Barcelona	12	W W W L W

33 Possession 67

5 Shots 5

10 Shots 22

0 Offsides 5

3 Shots Off Goal 11

5 Shots On Goal 5

10 Total Shots 22

33 Ball Possession 67

194 Passes Accurate 421

262 Total Passes 494

74% Passes % 85%

2 Blocked Shots 6

5 Goalkeeper Saves 3

9 Fouls 11

0 Red Cards 0

3 Yellow Cards 4

1 Corner Kicks 11

8 Shots Insidebox 14

2 Shots Outsidebox 8

N/A expected_goals N/A

N/A goals_prevented N/A

Racing Santander — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Andrés Martín	0	-	-	-	2	2	-	1	False	17	11	F	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	2	-	4	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	1
👤 Aritz Aldasoro	1	1	1	1	6	3	-	-	False	90	8	M	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	15	-	23	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
👤 Asier Villalibre	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	False	29	12	F	7.2	True	0	0	-	-	-	8	2	8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Diego Fuentes	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	44	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Facundo González	0	-	1	-	7	3	1	-	False	90	16	D	7.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	19	-	22	-	-	-	-	-	1	3	2
👤 Gustavo Puerta	1	-	1	-	5	2	2	-	False	45	19	M	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	18	-	19	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	2
👤 Izan Yurrieta	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	42	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Iñigo Vicente	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	10	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Javier Castro	0	1	-	1	1	1	-	-	False	29	5	D	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	5	-	7	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-
👤 Jorge Salinas	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	32	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Juan Carlos Arana	0	2	-	2	4	3	1	-	False	61	9	F	9.2	False	0	0	-	2	-	3	1	4	-	-	-	2	2	-	-	-
👤 Laro Gómez	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	35	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Maguette Gueye	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	15	14	M	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	2	-	3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Manu Hernando	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	False	90	4	D	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	14	-	18	-	-	-	1	1	1	2	-
👤 Marco Sangalli	0	-	-	-	6	5	1	3	False	61	15	D	7.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	22	-	26	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Mario Garcia	0	-	2	-	7	4	-	-	False	90	3	D	7.2	False	1	0	-	-	-	15	2	24	-	-	-	-	-	2	4	3
👤 Pablo Ramón	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	21	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Plamen Andreev	0	-	-	-	2	2	-	-	False	90	13	G	6.9	False	0	1	5	-	-	14	-	32	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Sergio Martinez	0	1	1	1	7	4	1	1	False	85	36	F	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	7	2	9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Suleiman Camara	1	1	1	1	15	6	1	4	False	73	20	M	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	6	1	6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Yeray Cabanzon	0	-	3	-	15	5	2	2	False	90	7	M	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	26	-	32	-	-	-	2	4	-	2	3
👤 Íñigo Sáinz-Maza	0	-	2	-	7	4	-	-	True	45	6	M	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	18	-	25	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	3

Villarreal — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Adrià Altimira	0	1	-	-	2	-	1	-	False	45	3	D	6	False	0	0	-	-	-	24	-	24	-	-	-	-	3	1	-	-
👤 Alassane Diatta	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	38	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Alberto Moleiro	1	5	2	2	15	2	3	-	False	90	20	M	5.5	False	0	0	-	-	1	34	2	40	-	-	-	1	3	-	-	-
👤 Alfonso Pedraza	0	1	-	-	2	1	-	-	False	34	24	D	7.2	True	0	0	-	-	-	15	2	17	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
👤 Arnau Tenas	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	25	G	6.2	False	0	2	3	-	-	13	-	20	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Ayoze Perez	0	4	-	3	11	7	1	2	False	90	22	F	9	False	0	0	-	1	-	13	1	14	-	-	-	1	3	-	-	1
👤 Carlos Macia	0	-	1	-	3	2	-	-	False	56	37	M	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	37	-	42	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Dani Parejo	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	10	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Georges Mikautadze	0	2	-	1	6	2	-	1	False	83	9	F	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	2	9	2	15	-	-	-	3	3	-	-	-
👤 Jean Ives Valou	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	27	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Juan Foyth	1	-	1	-	3	1	1	-	True	56	8	D	6.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	42	2	49	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1
👤 Luiz Júnior	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	1	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Manor Solomon	0	1	-	1	2	1	1	-	False	17	6	F	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	7	-	7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Nicolas Pépé	0	4	-	2	8	4	1	-	False	90	19	M	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	31	2	43	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	1
👤 Pau Navarro	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	26	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Rafa Marín	1	-	-	-	5	3	-	-	False	90	4	D	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	66	1	74	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
👤 Renato Veiga	0	2	-	2	4	3	1	-	False	34	12	M	7.2	True	0	0	-	-	-	35	2	41	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Santi Comesaña	0	-	1	-	10	8	-	1	False	90	14	M	7.6	False	0	0	-	-	1	60	-	69	-	-	-	-	2	-	1	5
👤 Sergi Cardona	0	1	-	-	8	4	1	3	False	56	23	D	6.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	15	1	19	-	-	-	-	-	1	2	1
👤 Tajon Buchanan	1	4	-	2	8	5	1	1	False	45	17	F	7	True	0	0	-	-	-	20	1	20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Tani Oluwaseyi	0	-	1	-	2	-	-	-	False	34	21	F	6.2	True	0	0	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-

League standings

View standings

Teams in this match: Racing Santander and Villarreal

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Real Sociedad		8	6	2	0	16	7	9	20	D W W W D
2	Atletico Madrid		6	4	1	1	15	7	8	13	W W W L D
3	Alaves		5	4	0	1	15	3	12	12	W W W W L
4	Valencia		5	4	0	1	12	3	9	12	W W W W L
5	Real Betis		5	4	0	1	15	8	7	12	W W W W L
6	Barcelona		5	4	0	1	9	5	4	12	W W W L W
7	Osasuna		4	3	1	0	16	7	9	10	W W W D
8	Albacete		5	3	1	1	11	7	4	10	W W D W L
9	Rayo Vallecano		4	3	0	1	11	5	6	9	W W W L
10	Deportivo La Coruna		4	3	0	1	8	2	6	9	W W W L
11	Elche		4	3	0	1	8	3	5	9	W W W L
12	Cultural Leonesa		4	3	0	1	11	7	4	9	W W W L
13	Racing Santander	2-1	4	3	0	1	8	4	4	9	W W W L
14	Burgos		4	3	0	1	6	4	2	9	W W W L
15	Athletic Club		5	3	0	2	7	6	1	9	W W W L L
16	Getafe		3	2	0	1	15	5	10	6	W W L
17	Palma del Rio		3	2	0	1	11	7	4	6	W W L
18	Sant Just		3	2	0	1	7	3	4	6	W W L
19	Eibar		3	2	0	1	7	3	4	6	W W L
20	CF Talavera		3	2	0	1	8	5	3	6	W W L
21	Granada CF		3	2	0	1	7	4	3	6	W W L
22	Huesca		3	2	0	1	7	4	3	6	W W L
23	Sevilla		3	2	0	1	6	3	3	6	W W L
24	Ourense CF		3	2	0	1	6	4	2	6	W W L
25	Eldense		3	2	0	1	6	4	2	6	W W L
26	Mallorca		3	2	0	1	5	3	2	6	W W L
27	Atlético Baleares		3	2	0	1	5	3	2	6	W W L
28	Levante		3	2	0	1	5	4	1	6	W W L
29	Sporting Gijon		3	2	0	1	3	2	1	6	W W L
30	Guadalajara		3	2	0	1	3	3	0	6	W W L
31	CD Sant Jordi		3	2	0	1	4	6	-2	6	W W L
32	Celta Vigo		3	1	2	0	4	2	2	5	W D D
33	Villarreal	2-1	3	1	1	1	7	2	5	4	W D L
34	Puerto de Vega		3	1	1	1	5	3	2	4	W D L
35	Sant Andreu		2	1	1	0	2	1	1	4	W D
36	Antoniano		2	1	1	0	1	0	1	4	W D
37	Real Murcia		3	1	1	1	4	5	-1	4	D W L
38	Maracena		3	1	1	1	3	6	-3	4	D W L
39	CD Yuncos		3	1	1	1	3	6	-3	4	D W L
40	Deportivo Getxo		3	1	1	1	2	8	-6	4	D W L
41	Inter de Valdemoro		3	1	1	1	4	13	-9	4	D W L
42	Tenerife		2	1	0	1	4	1	3	3	W L
43	FC Andorra		2	1	0	1	7	5	2	3	W L
44	Numancia		2	1	0	1	5	3	2	3	W L
45	Leganes		2	1	0	1	5	3	2	3	W L
46	Cadiz		2	1	0	1	5	4	1	3	W L
47	Extremadura 1924		2	1	0	1	4	3	1	3	W L
48	Ponferradina		2	1	0	1	4	3	1	3	W L
49	Malaga		2	1	0	1	4	3	1	3	W L
50	Zaragoza		2	1	0	1	3	2	1	3	W L
51	Almeria		2	1	0	1	3	2	1	3	W L
52	AD Ceuta FC		2	1	0	1	2	1	1	3	W L
53	SD Negreira		3	1	0	2	5	5	0	3	L W L
54	Real Madrid		2	1	0	1	5	5	0	3	W L
55	Girona		2	1	0	1	4	4	0	3	W L
56	Navalcarnero		2	1	0	1	4	4	0	3	W L
57	Manises		2	1	0	1	2	2	0	3	W L
58	FC Cartagena		2	1	0	1	2	2	0	3	W L
59	Real Ávila		2	1	0	1	2	2	0	3	W L
60	Espanyol		2	1	0	1	2	2	0	3	W L
61	Cieza		2	1	0	1	1	1	0	3	W L
62	Torrent		2	1	0	1	4	5	-1	3	W L
63	Sabadell		2	1	0	1	2	3	-1	3	W L
64	Portugalete		2	1	0	1	1	3	-2	3	W L
65	Textil Escudo		2	1	0	1	2	5	-3	3	W L
66	Los Garres		3	1	0	2	2	6	-4	3	L W L
67	Tarazona		1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	D
68	Atlético Astorga		1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	D
69	Europa Fc		1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	D
70	UD Ourense		1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	D
71	Ibiza		1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	D
72	Antequera		1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	D
73	Langreo		1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	D
74	Quintanar del Rey		2	0	1	1	2	3	-1	1	D L
75	Betis Valladolid		2	0	1	1	1	2	-1	1	D L
76	Ebro		2	0	1	1	4	6	-2	1	D L
77	Universitario FC		2	0	1	1	2	4	-2	1	D L
78	Sporting Ceuta		2	0	1	1	1	3	-2	1	D L
79	Mirandes		2	0	1	1	1	3	-2	1	D L
80	Reddis		2	0	1	1	1	3	-2	1	D L
81	Campanario		2	0	1	1	0	2	-2	1	D L
82	Racing Ferrol		2	0	1	1	0	2	-2	1	D L
83	Pontevedra		2	0	1	1	1	4	-3	1	D L
84	Alberite		2	0	1	1	1	5	-4	1	L D
85	Orihuela		1	0	0	1	3	4	-1	0	L
86	Constància		1	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0	L
87	Atlético Tordesillas		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
88	Cacereño		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
89	Poblense		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
90	Mérida AD		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
91	Teruel		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
92	Atlètic Lleida		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
93	Cordoba		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
94	Valladolid		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
95	Caudal		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
96	Puente Genil		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
97	Real Avilés		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
98	Castellón		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
99	Oviedo		1	0	0	1	2	4	-2	0	L
100	Náxara		1	0	0	1	2	4	-2	0	L
101	Ucam Murcia		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
102	Tropezón		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
103	Las Palmas		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
104	Mutilvera		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
105	Juventud Torremolinos		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
106	Real Jaén		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
107	UD Logroñés		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
108	Estepona		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
109	La Unión Atlético		1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	L
110	Lorca Deportiva		1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	L
111	Gimnastic		1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	L
112	Lourdes		2	0	0	2	1	4	-3	0	L L
113	Rayo Majadahonda		1	0	0	1	1	4	-3	0	L
114	Toledo		1	0	0	1	1	4	-3	0	L
115	Azuaga		1	0	0	1	1	4	-3	0	L
116	San Fernando CD		1	0	0	1	0	3	-3	0	L
117	Utebo		1	0	0	1	0	3	-3	0	L
118	Arenas Getxo		1	0	0	1	0	3	-3	0	L
119	Roda		1	0	0	1	1	5	-4	0	L
120	Valle Egüés		1	0	0	1	1	5	-4	0	L
121	Sámano		1	0	0	1	1	5	-4	0	L
122	SD Logroñés		1	0	0	1	0	4	-4	0	L
123	RSD Alcalá		1	0	0	1	0	4	-4	0	L
124	Atletico Calatayud		2	0	0	2	1	7	-6	0	L L
125	Ciudad de Lucena		1	0	0	1	0	6	-6	0	L
126	Atlético Melilla		2	0	0	2	0	10	-10	0	L L

Predict the score

Loading API predictions…

CatBoost Prediction

Model not available yet. Run train_catboost to train a model.

Qualification Prediction Based on 5000 simulations

Racing Santander

100.0%

Villarreal

0.0%

Match Type: Single match knockout

Method: Monte Carlo (Dixon-Coles + Elo fallback, elo-weighted ET/PEN)

How was this calculated?

We simulate this knockout matchup using scoreline probabilities from Dixon-Coles where available, with an Elo fallback when needed. For two-leg ties we aggregate both legs and count who advances; for single-match knockouts and aggregate-level ties we resolve the shootout step with an elo-weighted draw rather than a 50/50 flip.

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

37.3%

Home Win

25.4%

Draw

37.3%

Away Win

Expected Goals

Racing Santander 1.61

Villarreal 1.61

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

Racing Santander

Villarreal

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Qualification %

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)