Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club

Copa del Rey

Athletic Club

87' M. Oyarzabal

04 Mar 2026

21:00

Reale Arena

First Leg Second Leg

Aggregate 2 - 0

Score Summary

Real Sociedad

1 0

FT HT 0–0

Athletic Club

M. Oyarzabal 87'

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

58% Win

Real Sociedad 1559 1567 ▲ 8

42% Win

Athletic Club 1504 1496 ▼ -8

xPi Expected win probability

37% Win

Real Sociedad 0.12 0.08 ▼ -0.04

40% Win

Athletic Club 0.20 0.06 ▼ -0.14

Top Performers

Top Rated

Goncalo Guedes

Real Sociedad

8.0

8.0 rating · 89 min

Most Clinical

Mikel Oyarzabal

Real Sociedad

7.9

1 goals

Best Creator

Goncalo Guedes

Real Sociedad

8.0

3 key passes · 0 assists

Defensive Leader

Jon Gorrotxategi

Real Sociedad

7.7

8 tackles · 3 interceptions

Match Momentum

Real Sociedad 67% Athletic Club 33%

Key Stats Snapshot

49 Possession 51

14 Shots 11

4 On Target 2

Form Context

Real Sociedad

D W W W D

Athletic Club

W W W L L

Smart Insight

Real Sociedad controlled momentum for most phases of play.
Real Sociedad generated the clearer shot volume edge.
Elo movement favors Real Sociedad after this result.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 35.7%

Draw 25.4%

Away Win 38.9%

Expected Goals 1.58 - 1.65

Qualification %

Real Sociedad 100.0%

Athletic Club 0.0%

Based on 5000 simulations

Standings (Top 6)

View full standings

#	Team	Scr	Pts	Form
1	Real Sociedad	1-0	20	D W W W D
2	Atletico Madrid		13	W W W L D
3	Alaves		12	W W W W L
4	Valencia		12	W W W W L
5	Real Betis		12	W W W W L
6	Barcelona		12	W W W L W

49 Possession 51

4 Shots 2

14 Shots 11

1 Offsides 3

4 Shots Off Goal 5

4 Shots On Goal 2

14 Total Shots 11

49 Ball Possession 51

296 Passes Accurate 309

379 Total Passes 391

78% Passes % 79%

6 Blocked Shots 4

2 Goalkeeper Saves 3

14 Fouls 16

0 Red Cards 0

2 Yellow Cards 5

11 Corner Kicks 8

9 Shots Insidebox 7

5 Shots Outsidebox 4

N/A expected_goals N/A

N/A goals_prevented N/A

Real Sociedad — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.scored	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Aihen Muñoz	1	-	-	-	2	-	2	-	False	1	3	D	-	True	0	-	-	-	1	-	2	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Ander Barrenetxea	0	5	-	2	15	6	1	1	False	59	7	M	6.7	False	0	-	-	-	15	1	19	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Aritz Elustondo	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	6	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Arsen Zakharyan	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	21	M	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Beñat Turrientes	0	-	-	-	4	3	1	2	False	59	8	M	6.6	False	0	-	-	-	13	1	19	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Brais Méndez	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	23	M	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Carlos Soler	0	-	1	-	4	1	-	1	False	83	18	M	6.5	False	0	-	-	-	20	1	22	-	-	0	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Duje Caleta-Car	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	16	D	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Goncalo Guedes	0	3	1	1	12	7	-	3	False	89	11	M	8	False	0	-	-	1	18	3	24	-	-	0	-	1	1	-	-	2
👤 Igor Zubeldia	0	-	-	-	14	10	-	-	False	90	5	D	7.3	False	0	-	-	-	38	-	48	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	1	4
👤 Jon Aramburu	0	-	2	-	10	5	-	1	False	90	2	D	6.6	False	0	-	-	-	22	-	32	-	-	0	-	-	-	1	2	2
👤 Jon Gorrotxategi	0	-	-	-	12	9	2	1	False	90	4	M	7.7	False	0	-	-	-	40	-	45	-	-	0	-	-	1	1	3	8
👤 Jon Martin	0	-	-	-	10	6	-	2	False	90	31	D	7	False	0	-	-	-	37	-	42	-	-	0	-	-	1	-	1	-
👤 Luka Sučić	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	1	24	M	-	True	0	-	-	-	3	1	3	-	-	0	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Mikel Oyarzabal	0	5	2	2	13	5	1	2	True	89	10	F	7.9	False	0	-	1	-	23	2	31	-	-	1	-	1	1	-	1	-
👤 Orri Steinn Óskarsson	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	17	9	F	6.7	True	0	-	-	-	2	-	2	-	-	0	-	-	1	1	-	-
👤 Pablo Marín	0	-	-	-	1	-	1	-	False	31	15	M	6.3	True	0	-	-	-	5	-	5	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Sergio Gómez	0	-	3	-	9	3	2	1	False	90	17	D	7.3	False	0	-	-	-	31	2	39	-	-	0	-	-	-	1	2	2
👤 Unai Marrero	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	13	G	6.9	False	0	2	-	-	22	-	39	-	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Wesley	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	22	F	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Yangel Herrera	1	-	-	-	9	3	4	2	False	31	12	M	6.9	True	0	-	-	-	6	-	7	-	-	0	1	-	1	-	-	1
👤 Álex Remiro	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	1	G	-	True	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-

Athletic Club — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Adama Boiro	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	19	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Aitor Paredes	1	-	1	-	6	1	2	-	False	67	4	D	7.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	35	-	38	-	-	-	-	-	3	-	1
👤 Alejandro Rego	0	1	1	1	6	3	1	-	False	56	30	M	6.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	15	1	20	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	2
👤 Alex Padilla	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	1	False	90	27	G	7.3	False	0	1	3	-	-	20	-	32	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Aymeric Laporte	1	-	-	-	8	6	-	-	False	90	14	D	7.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	54	-	63	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	1
👤 Daniel Vivian	0	1	-	1	11	7	2	1	False	90	3	D	7.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	42	1	49	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	5
👤 Gorka Guruzeta	1	-	-	-	12	7	-	-	False	82	11	F	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	2	7	-	12	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Iñaki Williams	0	5	-	1	13	4	1	3	True	90	9	M	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	1	12	2	16	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-
👤 Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta	0	-	1	-	7	4	2	3	False	34	16	M	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	11	1	12	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Jesús Areso	1	3	-	1	5	2	-	-	False	23	12	D	6.2	True	0	0	-	-	-	10	-	11	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Mikel Jauregizar	1	2	2	2	11	7	2	2	False	82	18	M	6.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	20	-	35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Mikel Vesga	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	8	6	M	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	3	-	4	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Nico Serrano	0	-	-	-	2	2	-	2	False	8	22	F	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	4	-	6	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Oihan Sancet	0	2	-	1	12	6	1	1	False	67	8	M	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	14	-	19	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	3
👤 Robert Navarro	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	23	23	M	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	7	1	8	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Selton Sanchez	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	44	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Unai Gómez	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	20	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Unai Simón	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	1	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Urko Izeta	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	25	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Yuri Berchiche	0	2	-	1	6	3	2	1	False	90	17	D	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	31	1	36	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Álex Berenguer	0	4	-	1	16	5	3	-	False	90	7	M	5.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	24	-	30	-	-	-	1	3	-	-	3
👤 Íñigo Lekue	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	15	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

League standings

View standings

Teams in this match: Real Sociedad and Athletic Club

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Real Sociedad	1-0	8	6	2	0	16	7	9	20	D W W W D
2	Atletico Madrid		6	4	1	1	15	7	8	13	W W W L D
3	Alaves		5	4	0	1	15	3	12	12	W W W W L
4	Valencia		5	4	0	1	12	3	9	12	W W W W L
5	Real Betis		5	4	0	1	15	8	7	12	W W W W L
6	Barcelona		5	4	0	1	9	5	4	12	W W W L W
7	Osasuna		4	3	1	0	16	7	9	10	W W W D
8	Albacete		5	3	1	1	11	7	4	10	W W D W L
9	Rayo Vallecano		4	3	0	1	11	5	6	9	W W W L
10	Deportivo La Coruna		4	3	0	1	8	2	6	9	W W W L
11	Elche		4	3	0	1	8	3	5	9	W W W L
12	Cultural Leonesa		4	3	0	1	11	7	4	9	W W W L
13	Racing Santander		4	3	0	1	8	4	4	9	W W W L
14	Burgos		4	3	0	1	6	4	2	9	W W W L
15	Athletic Club	1-0	5	3	0	2	7	6	1	9	W W W L L
16	Getafe		3	2	0	1	15	5	10	6	W W L
17	Palma del Rio		3	2	0	1	11	7	4	6	W W L
18	Sant Just		3	2	0	1	7	3	4	6	W W L
19	Eibar		3	2	0	1	7	3	4	6	W W L
20	CF Talavera		3	2	0	1	8	5	3	6	W W L
21	Granada CF		3	2	0	1	7	4	3	6	W W L
22	Huesca		3	2	0	1	7	4	3	6	W W L
23	Sevilla		3	2	0	1	6	3	3	6	W W L
24	Ourense CF		3	2	0	1	6	4	2	6	W W L
25	Eldense		3	2	0	1	6	4	2	6	W W L
26	Mallorca		3	2	0	1	5	3	2	6	W W L
27	Atlético Baleares		3	2	0	1	5	3	2	6	W W L
28	Levante		3	2	0	1	5	4	1	6	W W L
29	Sporting Gijon		3	2	0	1	3	2	1	6	W W L
30	Guadalajara		3	2	0	1	3	3	0	6	W W L
31	CD Sant Jordi		3	2	0	1	4	6	-2	6	W W L
32	Celta Vigo		3	1	2	0	4	2	2	5	W D D
33	Villarreal		3	1	1	1	7	2	5	4	W D L
34	Puerto de Vega		3	1	1	1	5	3	2	4	W D L
35	Sant Andreu		2	1	1	0	2	1	1	4	W D
36	Antoniano		2	1	1	0	1	0	1	4	W D
37	Real Murcia		3	1	1	1	4	5	-1	4	D W L
38	Maracena		3	1	1	1	3	6	-3	4	D W L
39	CD Yuncos		3	1	1	1	3	6	-3	4	D W L
40	Deportivo Getxo		3	1	1	1	2	8	-6	4	D W L
41	Inter de Valdemoro		3	1	1	1	4	13	-9	4	D W L
42	Tenerife		2	1	0	1	4	1	3	3	W L
43	FC Andorra		2	1	0	1	7	5	2	3	W L
44	Numancia		2	1	0	1	5	3	2	3	W L
45	Leganes		2	1	0	1	5	3	2	3	W L
46	Cadiz		2	1	0	1	5	4	1	3	W L
47	Extremadura 1924		2	1	0	1	4	3	1	3	W L
48	Ponferradina		2	1	0	1	4	3	1	3	W L
49	Malaga		2	1	0	1	4	3	1	3	W L
50	Zaragoza		2	1	0	1	3	2	1	3	W L
51	Almeria		2	1	0	1	3	2	1	3	W L
52	AD Ceuta FC		2	1	0	1	2	1	1	3	W L
53	SD Negreira		3	1	0	2	5	5	0	3	L W L
54	Real Madrid		2	1	0	1	5	5	0	3	W L
55	Girona		2	1	0	1	4	4	0	3	W L
56	Navalcarnero		2	1	0	1	4	4	0	3	W L
57	Manises		2	1	0	1	2	2	0	3	W L
58	FC Cartagena		2	1	0	1	2	2	0	3	W L
59	Real Ávila		2	1	0	1	2	2	0	3	W L
60	Espanyol		2	1	0	1	2	2	0	3	W L
61	Cieza		2	1	0	1	1	1	0	3	W L
62	Torrent		2	1	0	1	4	5	-1	3	W L
63	Sabadell		2	1	0	1	2	3	-1	3	W L
64	Portugalete		2	1	0	1	1	3	-2	3	W L
65	Textil Escudo		2	1	0	1	2	5	-3	3	W L
66	Los Garres		3	1	0	2	2	6	-4	3	L W L
67	Tarazona		1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	D
68	Atlético Astorga		1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	D
69	Europa Fc		1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	D
70	UD Ourense		1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	D
71	Ibiza		1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	D
72	Antequera		1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	D
73	Langreo		1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	D
74	Quintanar del Rey		2	0	1	1	2	3	-1	1	D L
75	Betis Valladolid		2	0	1	1	1	2	-1	1	D L
76	Ebro		2	0	1	1	4	6	-2	1	D L
77	Universitario FC		2	0	1	1	2	4	-2	1	D L
78	Sporting Ceuta		2	0	1	1	1	3	-2	1	D L
79	Mirandes		2	0	1	1	1	3	-2	1	D L
80	Reddis		2	0	1	1	1	3	-2	1	D L
81	Campanario		2	0	1	1	0	2	-2	1	D L
82	Racing Ferrol		2	0	1	1	0	2	-2	1	D L
83	Pontevedra		2	0	1	1	1	4	-3	1	D L
84	Alberite		2	0	1	1	1	5	-4	1	L D
85	Orihuela		1	0	0	1	3	4	-1	0	L
86	Constància		1	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0	L
87	Atlético Tordesillas		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
88	Cacereño		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
89	Poblense		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
90	Mérida AD		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
91	Teruel		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
92	Atlètic Lleida		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
93	Cordoba		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
94	Valladolid		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
95	Caudal		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
96	Puente Genil		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
97	Real Avilés		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
98	Castellón		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
99	Oviedo		1	0	0	1	2	4	-2	0	L
100	Náxara		1	0	0	1	2	4	-2	0	L
101	Ucam Murcia		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
102	Tropezón		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
103	Las Palmas		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
104	Mutilvera		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
105	Juventud Torremolinos		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
106	Real Jaén		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
107	UD Logroñés		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
108	Estepona		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
109	La Unión Atlético		1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	L
110	Lorca Deportiva		1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	L
111	Gimnastic		1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	L
112	Lourdes		2	0	0	2	1	4	-3	0	L L
113	Rayo Majadahonda		1	0	0	1	1	4	-3	0	L
114	Toledo		1	0	0	1	1	4	-3	0	L
115	Azuaga		1	0	0	1	1	4	-3	0	L
116	San Fernando CD		1	0	0	1	0	3	-3	0	L
117	Utebo		1	0	0	1	0	3	-3	0	L
118	Arenas Getxo		1	0	0	1	0	3	-3	0	L
119	Roda		1	0	0	1	1	5	-4	0	L
120	Valle Egüés		1	0	0	1	1	5	-4	0	L
121	Sámano		1	0	0	1	1	5	-4	0	L
122	SD Logroñés		1	0	0	1	0	4	-4	0	L
123	RSD Alcalá		1	0	0	1	0	4	-4	0	L
124	Atletico Calatayud		2	0	0	2	1	7	-6	0	L L
125	Ciudad de Lucena		1	0	0	1	0	6	-6	0	L
126	Atlético Melilla		2	0	0	2	0	10	-10	0	L L

Predict the score

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CatBoost Prediction

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Qualification Prediction Based on 5000 simulations

Real Sociedad

100.0%

Athletic Club

0.0%

Match Type: Two-leg tie

First leg: Athletic Club 0-1 Real Sociedad

Current aggregate: 0-2

Method: Monte Carlo (Dixon-Coles + Elo fallback, elo-weighted ET/PEN)

How was this calculated?

We simulate this knockout matchup using scoreline probabilities from Dixon-Coles where available, with an Elo fallback when needed. For two-leg ties we aggregate both legs and count who advances; for single-match knockouts and aggregate-level ties we resolve the shootout step with an elo-weighted draw rather than a 50/50 flip.

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

35.7%

Home Win

25.4%

Draw

38.9%

Away Win

Expected Goals

Real Sociedad 1.58

Athletic Club 1.65

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

Real Sociedad

Athletic Club

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Qualification %

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)