Valencia vs Athletic Club - Football Platform

Copa del Rey

Athletic Club

04 Feb 2026

21:00

Estadio de Mestalla

Stadium

Estadio de Mestalla

Valencia, Spain

Capacity: 55000 Surface: grass Address: Avenida de Suecia

Score Summary

Valencia

1 2

FT HT 1–1

Athletic Club

U. Sadiq 35'

26' U. Sadiq
90' I. Williams

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

56% Win

Valencia 1517 1506 ▼ -11

44% Win

Athletic Club 1474 1485 ▲ 11

xPi Expected win probability

48% Win

Valencia 0.15 0.17 ▲ 0.02

34% Win

Athletic Club 0.11 0.06 ▼ -0.05

Top Performers

Top Rated

Iñaki Williams

Athletic Club

7.3

7.3 rating · 20 min

Most Clinical

Umar Sadiq

Valencia

6.2

1 goals

Best Creator

Luis Rioja

Valencia

7.2

3 key passes · 0 assists

Defensive Leader

Pepelu

Valencia

6.9

5 tackles · 0 interceptions

Match Momentum

Valencia 50% Athletic Club 50%

Key Stats Snapshot

52 Possession 48

11 Shots 12

3 On Target 3

Form Context

Valencia

W W W W L

Athletic Club

W W W L L

Smart Insight

Momentum stayed balanced with no clear sustained dominance.
Elo movement favors Athletic Club after this result.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 44.6%

Draw 25.0%

Away Win 30.4%

Expected Goals 1.78 - 1.45

Qualification %

Valencia 0.0%

Athletic Club 100.0%

Based on 5000 simulations

Standings (Top 6)

View full standings

#	Team	Scr	Pts	Form
1	Real Sociedad		20	D W W W D
2	Atletico Madrid		13	W W W L D
3	Alaves		12	W W W W L
4	Valencia	1-2	12	W W W W L
5	Real Betis		12	W W W W L
6	Barcelona		12	W W W L W

52 Possession 48

3 Shots 3

11 Shots 12

4 Offsides 2

3 Shots Off Goal 8

3 Shots On Goal 3

11 Total Shots 12

52 Ball Possession 48

352 Passes Accurate 316

443 Total Passes 404

79% Passes % 78%

5 Blocked Shots 1

2 Goalkeeper Saves 2

13 Fouls 8

0 Red Cards 0

2 Yellow Cards 1

4 Corner Kicks 3

8 Shots Insidebox 8

3 Shots Outsidebox 4

1.22 expected_goals 2.00

N/A goals_prevented N/A

Valencia — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Arnaut Danjuma	0	4	-	2	8	5	-	1	False	77	7	M	6.7	False	0	-	0	1	12	-	16	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 César Tárrega	0	-	-	-	4	1	1	-	False	31	5	D	5.9	True	0	-	0	-	14	-	18	1	-	-	-	-	-	2	1
👤 Diego López	1	-	-	-	7	5	1	-	False	13	16	F	6.9	True	0	-	0	-	5	-	8	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	3
👤 Dimitri Foulquier	0	2	2	2	9	4	3	-	False	90	20	D	6.3	False	0	-	0	-	37	-	43	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	1
👤 Eray Cömert	0	-	1	-	5	2	1	-	False	90	24	D	6.2	False	0	-	0	-	54	1	67	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	-
👤 Filip Ugrinić	0	-	-	-	7	3	1	2	False	89	23	M	7	False	0	-	0	-	42	-	44	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Guido Rodríguez	0	-	-	-	4	1	-	-	False	1	2	M	-	True	0	-	0	-	5	-	7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Hugo Duro	0	-	-	-	5	-	-	-	False	31	9	F	6.3	True	0	-	0	-	1	-	3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jesús Vázquez	0	2	3	2	9	3	-	-	False	90	21	D	5.9	False	0	-	0	-	18	-	21	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1
👤 José Copete	1	-	-	-	4	2	1	-	False	59	3	D	6.5	False	0	-	0	-	35	-	41	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1
👤 Largie Ramazani	0	1	-	-	4	2	-	-	False	13	17	F	6.7	True	0	-	0	-	1	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	2
👤 Lucas Beltrán	0	1	-	1	11	6	1	3	False	77	15	F	6.6	False	0	-	0	-	22	1	29	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Luis Rioja	0	4	1	2	8	3	-	1	False	90	11	M	7.2	False	0	-	0	-	31	3	33	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Pepelu	0	2	3	1	14	8	2	1	True	90	18	M	6.9	False	0	-	0	-	41	1	57	-	-	-	1	2	-	-	5
👤 Stole Dimitrievski	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	1	G	7.2	False	2	2	0	-	31	-	48	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Umar Sadiq	0	2	-	-	8	3	2	-	False	59	6	F	6.2	False	0	-	1	3	3	-	7	-	-	-	1	2	-	1	1

Athletic Club — Player Statistics

Player	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.missed	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Alex Padilla	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	27	G	5.9	False	0	1	2	0	-	14	-	28	-	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Andoni Gorosabel	2	2	-	13	5	2	-	False	90	2	D	7	False	0	0	-	0	-	21	-	27	-	0	-	-	-	-	2	-	5
👤 Aymeric Laporte	-	1	-	5	4	-	2	False	59	14	D	6.9	False	0	0	-	0	-	21	-	26	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	1	2
👤 Gorka Guruzeta	1	-	-	5	4	-	2	False	31	11	F	6.9	True	0	0	-	0	-	5	-	9	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Iker Monreal Agundez	1	-	1	9	7	-	-	False	90	47	D	7	False	0	0	-	0	-	35	-	46	-	0	-	-	-	-	2	-	1
👤 Iñaki Williams	1	-	1	5	2	-	1	False	20	9	F	7.3	True	0	0	-	1	-	2	-	3	-	0	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta	1	-	1	2	1	-	-	False	31	16	M	6.9	True	0	0	-	0	-	23	2	25	-	0	-	-	-	1	-	1	-
👤 Mikel Jauregizar	1	1	1	11	6	1	-	False	90	18	M	6.5	False	0	0	-	0	-	51	1	60	-	1	-	-	1	2	-	-	3
👤 Mikel Vesga	-	2	-	9	5	2	2	False	59	6	M	6.6	False	0	0	-	0	-	21	-	26	-	0	-	-	-	1	-	-	2
👤 Nico Serrano	4	1	3	9	5	-	-	False	90	22	M	6.6	False	0	0	-	0	1	20	1	28	-	0	-	-	1	3	-	-	1
👤 Nico Williams	2	-	-	5	3	-	1	False	20	10	F	6.6	True	1	0	-	0	-	6	1	9	-	0	-	-	-	1	-	-	-
👤 Robert Navarro	4	-	3	7	6	-	1	False	70	23	M	6.9	False	0	0	-	0	-	21	2	28	-	0	-	-	-	1	-	1	2
👤 Selton Sanchez	2	1	-	6	1	-	1	False	70	44	M	6	False	0	0	-	0	-	8	-	12	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Urko Izeta	-	-	-	9	5	-	2	False	59	25	F	6.9	False	0	0	-	0	1	5	-	7	-	0	-	-	-	1	-	-	1
👤 Yuri Berchiche	-	-	-	2	2	-	-	False	31	17	D	7	True	0	0	-	0	-	24	-	27	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Íñigo Lekue	-	2	-	10	3	3	-	True	90	15	D	6.7	False	0	0	-	0	-	39	-	43	-	0	-	-	-	-	1	1	1

League standings

View standings

Teams in this match: Valencia and Athletic Club

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Real Sociedad		8	6	2	0	16	7	9	20	D W W W D
2	Atletico Madrid		6	4	1	1	15	7	8	13	W W W L D
3	Alaves		5	4	0	1	15	3	12	12	W W W W L
4	Valencia	1-2	5	4	0	1	12	3	9	12	W W W W L
5	Real Betis		5	4	0	1	15	8	7	12	W W W W L
6	Barcelona		5	4	0	1	9	5	4	12	W W W L W
7	Osasuna		4	3	1	0	16	7	9	10	W W W D
8	Albacete		5	3	1	1	11	7	4	10	W W D W L
9	Rayo Vallecano		4	3	0	1	11	5	6	9	W W W L
10	Deportivo La Coruna		4	3	0	1	8	2	6	9	W W W L
11	Elche		4	3	0	1	8	3	5	9	W W W L
12	Cultural Leonesa		4	3	0	1	11	7	4	9	W W W L
13	Racing Santander		4	3	0	1	8	4	4	9	W W W L
14	Burgos		4	3	0	1	6	4	2	9	W W W L
15	Athletic Club	1-2	5	3	0	2	7	6	1	9	W W W L L
16	Getafe		3	2	0	1	15	5	10	6	W W L
17	Palma del Rio		3	2	0	1	11	7	4	6	W W L
18	Sant Just		3	2	0	1	7	3	4	6	W W L
19	Eibar		3	2	0	1	7	3	4	6	W W L
20	CF Talavera		3	2	0	1	8	5	3	6	W W L
21	Granada CF		3	2	0	1	7	4	3	6	W W L
22	Huesca		3	2	0	1	7	4	3	6	W W L
23	Sevilla		3	2	0	1	6	3	3	6	W W L
24	Ourense CF		3	2	0	1	6	4	2	6	W W L
25	Eldense		3	2	0	1	6	4	2	6	W W L
26	Mallorca		3	2	0	1	5	3	2	6	W W L
27	Atlético Baleares		3	2	0	1	5	3	2	6	W W L
28	Levante		3	2	0	1	5	4	1	6	W W L
29	Sporting Gijon		3	2	0	1	3	2	1	6	W W L
30	Guadalajara		3	2	0	1	3	3	0	6	W W L
31	CD Sant Jordi		3	2	0	1	4	6	-2	6	W W L
32	Celta Vigo		3	1	2	0	4	2	2	5	W D D
33	Villarreal		3	1	1	1	7	2	5	4	W D L
34	Puerto de Vega		3	1	1	1	5	3	2	4	W D L
35	Sant Andreu		2	1	1	0	2	1	1	4	W D
36	Antoniano		2	1	1	0	1	0	1	4	W D
37	Real Murcia		3	1	1	1	4	5	-1	4	D W L
38	Maracena		3	1	1	1	3	6	-3	4	D W L
39	CD Yuncos		3	1	1	1	3	6	-3	4	D W L
40	Deportivo Getxo		3	1	1	1	2	8	-6	4	D W L
41	Inter de Valdemoro		3	1	1	1	4	13	-9	4	D W L
42	Tenerife		2	1	0	1	4	1	3	3	W L
43	FC Andorra		2	1	0	1	7	5	2	3	W L
44	Numancia		2	1	0	1	5	3	2	3	W L
45	Leganes		2	1	0	1	5	3	2	3	W L
46	Cadiz		2	1	0	1	5	4	1	3	W L
47	Extremadura 1924		2	1	0	1	4	3	1	3	W L
48	Ponferradina		2	1	0	1	4	3	1	3	W L
49	Malaga		2	1	0	1	4	3	1	3	W L
50	Zaragoza		2	1	0	1	3	2	1	3	W L
51	Almeria		2	1	0	1	3	2	1	3	W L
52	AD Ceuta FC		2	1	0	1	2	1	1	3	W L
53	SD Negreira		3	1	0	2	5	5	0	3	L W L
54	Real Madrid		2	1	0	1	5	5	0	3	W L
55	Girona		2	1	0	1	4	4	0	3	W L
56	Navalcarnero		2	1	0	1	4	4	0	3	W L
57	Manises		2	1	0	1	2	2	0	3	W L
58	FC Cartagena		2	1	0	1	2	2	0	3	W L
59	Real Ávila		2	1	0	1	2	2	0	3	W L
60	Espanyol		2	1	0	1	2	2	0	3	W L
61	Cieza		2	1	0	1	1	1	0	3	W L
62	Torrent		2	1	0	1	4	5	-1	3	W L
63	Sabadell		2	1	0	1	2	3	-1	3	W L
64	Portugalete		2	1	0	1	1	3	-2	3	W L
65	Textil Escudo		2	1	0	1	2	5	-3	3	W L
66	Los Garres		3	1	0	2	2	6	-4	3	L W L
67	Tarazona		1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	D
68	Atlético Astorga		1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	D
69	Europa Fc		1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	D
70	UD Ourense		1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	D
71	Ibiza		1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	D
72	Antequera		1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	D
73	Langreo		1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	D
74	Quintanar del Rey		2	0	1	1	2	3	-1	1	D L
75	Betis Valladolid		2	0	1	1	1	2	-1	1	D L
76	Ebro		2	0	1	1	4	6	-2	1	D L
77	Universitario FC		2	0	1	1	2	4	-2	1	D L
78	Sporting Ceuta		2	0	1	1	1	3	-2	1	D L
79	Mirandes		2	0	1	1	1	3	-2	1	D L
80	Reddis		2	0	1	1	1	3	-2	1	D L
81	Campanario		2	0	1	1	0	2	-2	1	D L
82	Racing Ferrol		2	0	1	1	0	2	-2	1	D L
83	Pontevedra		2	0	1	1	1	4	-3	1	D L
84	Alberite		2	0	1	1	1	5	-4	1	L D
85	Orihuela		1	0	0	1	3	4	-1	0	L
86	Constància		1	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0	L
87	Atlético Tordesillas		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
88	Cacereño		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
89	Poblense		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
90	Mérida AD		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
91	Teruel		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
92	Atlètic Lleida		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
93	Cordoba		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
94	Valladolid		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
95	Caudal		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
96	Puente Genil		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
97	Real Avilés		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
98	Castellón		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
99	Oviedo		1	0	0	1	2	4	-2	0	L
100	Náxara		1	0	0	1	2	4	-2	0	L
101	Ucam Murcia		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
102	Tropezón		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
103	Las Palmas		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
104	Mutilvera		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
105	Juventud Torremolinos		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
106	Real Jaén		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
107	UD Logroñés		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
108	Estepona		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
109	La Unión Atlético		1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	L
110	Lorca Deportiva		1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	L
111	Gimnastic		1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	L
112	Lourdes		2	0	0	2	1	4	-3	0	L L
113	Rayo Majadahonda		1	0	0	1	1	4	-3	0	L
114	Toledo		1	0	0	1	1	4	-3	0	L
115	Azuaga		1	0	0	1	1	4	-3	0	L
116	San Fernando CD		1	0	0	1	0	3	-3	0	L
117	Utebo		1	0	0	1	0	3	-3	0	L
118	Arenas Getxo		1	0	0	1	0	3	-3	0	L
119	Roda		1	0	0	1	1	5	-4	0	L
120	Valle Egüés		1	0	0	1	1	5	-4	0	L
121	Sámano		1	0	0	1	1	5	-4	0	L
122	SD Logroñés		1	0	0	1	0	4	-4	0	L
123	RSD Alcalá		1	0	0	1	0	4	-4	0	L
124	Atletico Calatayud		2	0	0	2	1	7	-6	0	L L
125	Ciudad de Lucena		1	0	0	1	0	6	-6	0	L
126	Atlético Melilla		2	0	0	2	0	10	-10	0	L L

Predict the score

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CatBoost Prediction

Model not available yet. Run train_catboost to train a model.

Qualification Prediction Based on 5000 simulations

Valencia

0.0%

Athletic Club

100.0%

Match Type: Single match knockout

Method: Monte Carlo (Dixon-Coles + Elo fallback, elo-weighted ET/PEN)

How was this calculated?

We simulate this knockout matchup using scoreline probabilities from Dixon-Coles where available, with an Elo fallback when needed. For two-leg ties we aggregate both legs and count who advances; for single-match knockouts and aggregate-level ties we resolve the shootout step with an elo-weighted draw rather than a 50/50 flip.

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

44.6%

Home Win

25.0%

Draw

30.4%

Away Win

Expected Goals

Valencia 1.78

Athletic Club 1.45

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

Valencia

Athletic Club

Estadio de Mestalla

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Qualification %

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)