Atletico Madrid vs Real Sociedad

PEN

Copa del Rey

Real Sociedad

1' A. Barrenetxea
18' A. Lookman
45+1' M. Oyarzabal
83' J. Alvarez
PEN 2' C. Soler
PEN 5' N. Gonzalez
PEN 6' L. Sucic
PEN 7' T. Almada
PEN 8' A. Munoz
PEN 9' A. Baena
PEN 10' P. Marin

18 Apr 2026

21:00

Estadio de La Cartuja

Score Summary

Atletico Madrid

2 2

PEN HT 1–2

Real Sociedad

A. Lookman 18'
J. Alvarez 83'
N. Gonzalez PEN 5'
T. Almada PEN 7'
A. Baena PEN 9'

1' A. Barrenetxea
45+1' M. Oyarzabal
PEN 2' C. Soler
PEN 6' L. Sucic
PEN 8' A. Munoz
PEN 10' P. Marin

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

52% Win

Atletico Madrid 1574 1573 ▼ 0

48% Win

Real Sociedad 1561 1561 ▲ 0

xPi Expected win probability

59% Win

Atletico Madrid 0.19 0.17 ▼ -0.02

29% Win

Real Sociedad 0.04 0.08 ▲ 0.05

Top Performers

Top Rated

Koke

Atletico Madrid

8.2

8.2 rating · 120 min

Most Clinical

Ademola Lookman

Atletico Madrid

8.0

1 goals

Best Creator

Koke

Atletico Madrid

8.2

3 key passes · 0 assists

Defensive Leader

Jon Aramburu

Real Sociedad

6.9

5 tackles · 2 interceptions

Match Momentum

Atletico Madrid 40% Real Sociedad 60%

Key Stats Snapshot

63 Possession 37

19 Shots 15

4 On Target 6

Form Context

Atletico Madrid

W W W L D

Real Sociedad

D W W W D

Smart Insight

Real Sociedad carried stronger momentum across the match profile.
Atletico Madrid generated the clearer shot volume edge.

Prediction (catboost)

Home Win 28.4%

Draw 27.9%

Away Win 43.6%

Qualification %

Atletico Madrid 57.1%

Real Sociedad 42.9%

Based on 5000 simulations

Standings (Top 6)

View full standings

#	Team	Scr	Pts	Form
1	Real Sociedad	2-2	20	D W W W D
2	Atletico Madrid	2-2	13	W W W L D
3	Alaves		12	W W W W L
4	Valencia		12	W W W W L
5	Real Betis		12	W W W W L
6	Barcelona		12	W W W L W

63 Possession 37

4 Shots 6

19 Shots 15

1 Offsides 2

11 Shots Off Goal 2

4 Shots On Goal 6

19 Total Shots 15

63 Ball Possession 37

607 Passes Accurate 315

708 Total Passes 416

86% Passes % 76%

4 Blocked Shots 7

4 Goalkeeper Saves 2

17 Fouls 17

0 Red Cards 0

2 Yellow Cards 3

5 Corner Kicks 6

11 Shots Insidebox 11

8 Shots Outsidebox 4

N/A expected_goals N/A

N/A goals_prevented N/A

Atletico Madrid — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Ademola Lookman	0	5	-	3	11	5	1	2	False	62	22	M	8	False	0	0	-	1	-	11	1	13	-	-	-	1	3	1	-	-
👤 Alex Baena	0	-	-	-	4	1	2	-	False	50	10	M	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	22	1	28	-	-	-	-	1	1	-	1
👤 Alexander Sørloth	0	-	-	-	10	3	1	-	False	58	9	F	5.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	12	-	16	-	-	-	-	2	-	-	-
👤 Antoine Griezmann	0	3	-	1	5	1	1	-	False	70	7	F	6.9	False	1	0	-	-	-	30	2	31	-	-	-	-	2	-	-	-
👤 Clément Lenglet	0	-	-	-	2	2	-	-	False	21	15	D	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	10	-	14	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
👤 Giuliano Simeone	0	-	-	-	8	2	1	1	False	70	20	M	6.5	False	0	0	-	-	-	17	-	19	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Jan Oblak	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	13	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Javier Boñar	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	32	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Johnny Cardoso	0	-	-	-	12	7	1	-	False	42	5	M	6.9	True	0	0	-	-	-	16	-	18	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	3
👤 Juan Musso	1	-	-	-	1	-	1	-	False	120	1	G	6.3	False	0	2	4	-	-	25	-	40	1	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Julián Alvarez	0	6	-	4	18	8	1	4	False	120	19	F	7.9	False	0	0	-	1	-	41	1	46	-	-	-	3	5	-	-	-
👤 Koke	0	2	1	2	13	8	-	4	True	120	6	M	8.2	False	0	0	-	-	-	121	3	133	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Marc Pubill	0	-	1	-	12	7	2	1	False	120	18	D	6.6	False	0	0	-	-	-	67	-	76	-	-	-	-	-	2	4	3
👤 Marcos Llorente	0	1	1	-	9	7	-	1	False	99	14	M	7.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	43	2	45	-	-	-	-	1	1	-	6
👤 Matteo Ruggeri	0	1	-	1	6	4	-	-	False	62	3	D	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	33	-	41	-	-	-	-	-	1	3	2
👤 Nahuel Molina	0	1	1	1	3	1	-	-	False	78	16	D	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	1	39	-	43	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Nicolás González	0	-	-	-	6	6	-	-	False	58	23	F	7.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	18	1	25	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	2
👤 Obed Vargas	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	21	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Pablo Barrios	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	8	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Robin Le Normand	1	-	-	-	18	12	4	1	False	120	24	D	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	62	-	77	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
👤 Rodrigo Mendoza	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	4	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Thiago Almada	0	5	-	2	11	5	2	2	False	50	11	M	7.2	True	1	0	-	-	-	40	1	43	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1

Real Sociedad — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.scored	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Aihen Muñoz	0	1	-	-	6	5	-	-	False	42	3	D	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	6	-	12	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	3
👤 Ander Barrenetxea	0	1	2	-	6	2	-	1	False	68	7	M	7.3	False	0	0	-	1	-	14	-	14	-	-	0	-	2	2	-	-	-
👤 Aritz Elustondo	1	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	False	8	6	D	6.7	True	0	0	-	-	-	4	-	5	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Beñat Turrientes	0	-	1	-	4	1	2	-	False	68	8	M	6.3	False	0	0	-	-	-	27	-	29	-	-	0	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Brais Méndez	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	23	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Carlos Soler	0	3	2	1	12	2	3	-	False	120	18	M	5.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	35	-	42	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	3	1
👤 Duje Caleta-Car	0	-	-	-	7	5	-	1	False	120	16	D	6.7	False	0	0	-	-	-	29	-	33	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Goncalo Guedes	0	1	2	-	9	5	1	1	False	78	11	M	7.3	False	1	0	-	-	1	17	2	23	-	-	0	1	-	1	-	-	3
👤 Jon Aramburu	0	-	3	-	20	12	4	2	False	113	2	D	6.9	False	0	0	-	-	-	24	1	33	-	-	0	-	-	-	1	2	5
👤 Jon Gorrotxategi	1	-	2	-	10	5	1	2	False	52	4	M	6.6	True	0	0	-	-	-	15	-	17	-	-	0	-	-	-	1	-	2
👤 Jon Martin	0	-	-	-	10	8	-	2	False	120	31	D	7	False	0	0	-	-	-	35	-	45	-	-	0	-	-	-	1	1	2
👤 Luka Sučić	0	1	-	-	13	6	-	1	False	120	24	M	7	False	0	0	-	-	-	28	-	35	-	-	0	-	1	1	-	-	4
👤 Luken Beitia	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	38	D	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Mikel Oyarzabal	1	4	-	1	17	8	3	5	True	78	10	F	7.2	False	0	0	-	1	-	15	2	19	-	-	1	-	1	1	-	1	2
👤 Orri Steinn Óskarsson	0	-	-	-	9	2	-	-	False	42	9	F	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	1	10	-	13	-	-	0	-	1	2	-	-	-
👤 Pablo Marín	0	7	-	1	11	2	-	1	False	52	15	M	6.2	True	0	0	-	-	-	7	-	9	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Sergio Gómez	0	1	2	1	9	4	3	-	False	88	17	D	6	False	0	0	-	-	-	17	-	20	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Takefusa Kubo	0	2	-	-	4	1	-	-	False	32	14	F	6.3	True	0	0	-	-	-	9	1	12	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Unai Marrero	0	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	False	120	13	G	6.3	False	0	2	2	-	-	23	-	55	-	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Wesley	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	22	F	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Yangel Herrera	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	12	M	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Álex Remiro	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	-	1	G	-	True	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-

League standings

View standings

Teams in this match: Atletico Madrid and Real Sociedad

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Real Sociedad	2-2	8	6	2	0	16	7	9	20	D W W W D
2	Atletico Madrid	2-2	6	4	1	1	15	7	8	13	W W W L D
3	Alaves		5	4	0	1	15	3	12	12	W W W W L
4	Valencia		5	4	0	1	12	3	9	12	W W W W L
5	Real Betis		5	4	0	1	15	8	7	12	W W W W L
6	Barcelona		5	4	0	1	9	5	4	12	W W W L W
7	Osasuna		4	3	1	0	16	7	9	10	W W W D
8	Albacete		5	3	1	1	11	7	4	10	W W D W L
9	Rayo Vallecano		4	3	0	1	11	5	6	9	W W W L
10	Deportivo La Coruna		4	3	0	1	8	2	6	9	W W W L
11	Elche		4	3	0	1	8	3	5	9	W W W L
12	Cultural Leonesa		4	3	0	1	11	7	4	9	W W W L
13	Racing Santander		4	3	0	1	8	4	4	9	W W W L
14	Burgos		4	3	0	1	6	4	2	9	W W W L
15	Athletic Club		5	3	0	2	7	6	1	9	W W W L L
16	Getafe		3	2	0	1	15	5	10	6	W W L
17	Palma del Rio		3	2	0	1	11	7	4	6	W W L
18	Sant Just		3	2	0	1	7	3	4	6	W W L
19	Eibar		3	2	0	1	7	3	4	6	W W L
20	CF Talavera		3	2	0	1	8	5	3	6	W W L
21	Granada CF		3	2	0	1	7	4	3	6	W W L
22	Huesca		3	2	0	1	7	4	3	6	W W L
23	Sevilla		3	2	0	1	6	3	3	6	W W L
24	Ourense CF		3	2	0	1	6	4	2	6	W W L
25	Eldense		3	2	0	1	6	4	2	6	W W L
26	Mallorca		3	2	0	1	5	3	2	6	W W L
27	Atlético Baleares		3	2	0	1	5	3	2	6	W W L
28	Levante		3	2	0	1	5	4	1	6	W W L
29	Sporting Gijon		3	2	0	1	3	2	1	6	W W L
30	Guadalajara		3	2	0	1	3	3	0	6	W W L
31	CD Sant Jordi		3	2	0	1	4	6	-2	6	W W L
32	Celta Vigo		3	1	2	0	4	2	2	5	W D D
33	Villarreal		3	1	1	1	7	2	5	4	W D L
34	Puerto de Vega		3	1	1	1	5	3	2	4	W D L
35	Sant Andreu		2	1	1	0	2	1	1	4	W D
36	Antoniano		2	1	1	0	1	0	1	4	W D
37	Real Murcia		3	1	1	1	4	5	-1	4	D W L
38	Maracena		3	1	1	1	3	6	-3	4	D W L
39	CD Yuncos		3	1	1	1	3	6	-3	4	D W L
40	Deportivo Getxo		3	1	1	1	2	8	-6	4	D W L
41	Inter de Valdemoro		3	1	1	1	4	13	-9	4	D W L
42	Tenerife		2	1	0	1	4	1	3	3	W L
43	FC Andorra		2	1	0	1	7	5	2	3	W L
44	Numancia		2	1	0	1	5	3	2	3	W L
45	Leganes		2	1	0	1	5	3	2	3	W L
46	Cadiz		2	1	0	1	5	4	1	3	W L
47	Extremadura 1924		2	1	0	1	4	3	1	3	W L
48	Ponferradina		2	1	0	1	4	3	1	3	W L
49	Malaga		2	1	0	1	4	3	1	3	W L
50	Zaragoza		2	1	0	1	3	2	1	3	W L
51	Almeria		2	1	0	1	3	2	1	3	W L
52	AD Ceuta FC		2	1	0	1	2	1	1	3	W L
53	SD Negreira		3	1	0	2	5	5	0	3	L W L
54	Real Madrid		2	1	0	1	5	5	0	3	W L
55	Girona		2	1	0	1	4	4	0	3	W L
56	Navalcarnero		2	1	0	1	4	4	0	3	W L
57	Manises		2	1	0	1	2	2	0	3	W L
58	FC Cartagena		2	1	0	1	2	2	0	3	W L
59	Real Ávila		2	1	0	1	2	2	0	3	W L
60	Espanyol		2	1	0	1	2	2	0	3	W L
61	Cieza		2	1	0	1	1	1	0	3	W L
62	Torrent		2	1	0	1	4	5	-1	3	W L
63	Sabadell		2	1	0	1	2	3	-1	3	W L
64	Portugalete		2	1	0	1	1	3	-2	3	W L
65	Textil Escudo		2	1	0	1	2	5	-3	3	W L
66	Los Garres		3	1	0	2	2	6	-4	3	L W L
67	Tarazona		1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	D
68	Atlético Astorga		1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	D
69	Europa Fc		1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	D
70	UD Ourense		1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	D
71	Ibiza		1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	D
72	Antequera		1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	D
73	Langreo		1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	D
74	Quintanar del Rey		2	0	1	1	2	3	-1	1	D L
75	Betis Valladolid		2	0	1	1	1	2	-1	1	D L
76	Ebro		2	0	1	1	4	6	-2	1	D L
77	Universitario FC		2	0	1	1	2	4	-2	1	D L
78	Sporting Ceuta		2	0	1	1	1	3	-2	1	D L
79	Mirandes		2	0	1	1	1	3	-2	1	D L
80	Reddis		2	0	1	1	1	3	-2	1	D L
81	Campanario		2	0	1	1	0	2	-2	1	D L
82	Racing Ferrol		2	0	1	1	0	2	-2	1	D L
83	Pontevedra		2	0	1	1	1	4	-3	1	D L
84	Alberite		2	0	1	1	1	5	-4	1	L D
85	Orihuela		1	0	0	1	3	4	-1	0	L
86	Constància		1	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0	L
87	Atlético Tordesillas		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
88	Cacereño		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
89	Poblense		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
90	Mérida AD		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
91	Teruel		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
92	Atlètic Lleida		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
93	Cordoba		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
94	Valladolid		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
95	Caudal		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
96	Puente Genil		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
97	Real Avilés		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
98	Castellón		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
99	Oviedo		1	0	0	1	2	4	-2	0	L
100	Náxara		1	0	0	1	2	4	-2	0	L
101	Ucam Murcia		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
102	Tropezón		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
103	Las Palmas		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
104	Mutilvera		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
105	Juventud Torremolinos		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
106	Real Jaén		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
107	UD Logroñés		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
108	Estepona		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
109	La Unión Atlético		1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	L
110	Lorca Deportiva		1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	L
111	Gimnastic		1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	L
112	Lourdes		2	0	0	2	1	4	-3	0	L L
113	Rayo Majadahonda		1	0	0	1	1	4	-3	0	L
114	Toledo		1	0	0	1	1	4	-3	0	L
115	Azuaga		1	0	0	1	1	4	-3	0	L
116	San Fernando CD		1	0	0	1	0	3	-3	0	L
117	Utebo		1	0	0	1	0	3	-3	0	L
118	Arenas Getxo		1	0	0	1	0	3	-3	0	L
119	Roda		1	0	0	1	1	5	-4	0	L
120	Valle Egüés		1	0	0	1	1	5	-4	0	L
121	Sámano		1	0	0	1	1	5	-4	0	L
122	SD Logroñés		1	0	0	1	0	4	-4	0	L
123	RSD Alcalá		1	0	0	1	0	4	-4	0	L
124	Atletico Calatayud		2	0	0	2	1	7	-6	0	L L
125	Ciudad de Lucena		1	0	0	1	0	6	-6	0	L
126	Atlético Melilla		2	0	0	2	0	10	-10	0	L L

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Qualification Prediction Based on 5000 simulations

Atletico Madrid

57.1%

Real Sociedad

42.9%

Match Type: Single match knockout

Method: Monte Carlo (Dixon-Coles + Elo fallback, elo-weighted ET/PEN)

How was this calculated?

We simulate this knockout matchup using scoreline probabilities from Dixon-Coles where available, with an Elo fallback when needed. For two-leg ties we aggregate both legs and count who advances; for single-match knockouts and aggregate-level ties we resolve the shootout step with an elo-weighted draw rather than a 50/50 flip.

Our predictions

catboost

Home Win 28.4%

Draw 27.9%

Away Win 43.6%

xpi

Home Win 58.8%

Draw 12.3%

Away Win 28.9%

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

51.6%

Home Win

24.1%

Draw

24.3%

Away Win

Expected Goals

Atletico Madrid 1.94

Real Sociedad 1.29

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

Atletico Madrid

Real Sociedad

Prediction (catboost)

Qualification %

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

catboost

xpi

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)