Alaves vs Real Sociedad - Football Platform

Copa del Rey

Real Sociedad

04 Feb 2026

21:00

Estadio de Mendizorroza

Stadium

Estadio de Mendizorroza

Vitoria-Gasteiz

Score Summary

Alaves

2 3

FT HT 2–1

Real Sociedad

A. Rebbach 8'
T. Martinez 29'

Elo & xPi Evolution

Elo Expected win probability

46% Win

Alaves 1512 1503 ▼ -9

54% Win

Real Sociedad 1537 1547 ▲ 9

xPi Expected win probability

37% Win

Alaves -0.07 -0.02 ▲ 0.05

41% Win

Real Sociedad 0.10 0.08 ▼ -0.02

Top Performers

Top Rated

Mikel Oyarzabal

Real Sociedad

7.9

7.9 rating · 90 min

Most Clinical

Abderrahman Rebbach

Alaves

7.0

1 goals

Best Creator

Aitor Mañas

Alaves

7.3

2 key passes · 1 assists

Defensive Leader

Ander Guevara

Alaves

6.5

5 tackles · 1 interceptions

Match Momentum

Alaves 33% Real Sociedad 67%

Key Stats Snapshot

46 Possession 54

7 Shots 11

3 On Target 6

Form Context

Alaves

W W W W L

Real Sociedad

D W W W D

Smart Insight

Real Sociedad carried stronger momentum across the match profile.
Real Sociedad produced more shot pressure than expected.
Elo movement favors Real Sociedad after this result.

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Home Win 35.0%

Draw 25.3%

Away Win 39.7%

Expected Goals 1.56 - 1.67

Qualification %

Alaves 0.0%

Real Sociedad 100.0%

Based on 5000 simulations

Standings (Top 6)

View full standings

#	Team	Scr	Pts	Form
1	Real Sociedad	2-3	20	D W W W D
2	Atletico Madrid		13	W W W L D
3	Alaves	2-3	12	W W W W L
4	Valencia		12	W W W W L
5	Real Betis		12	W W W W L
6	Barcelona		12	W W W L W

46 Possession 54

3 Shots 6

7 Shots 11

1 Offsides 3

1 Shots Off Goal 3

3 Shots On Goal 6

7 Total Shots 11

46 Ball Possession 54

231 Passes Accurate 308

334 Total Passes 389

69% Passes % 79%

3 Blocked Shots 2

3 Goalkeeper Saves 1

17 Fouls 18

0 Red Cards 0

3 Yellow Cards 4

3 Corner Kicks 6

5 Shots Insidebox 7

2 Shots Outsidebox 4

1.75 expected_goals 1.51

N/A goals_prevented N/A

Alaves — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.missed	penalty.saved	penalty.scored	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Abderrahman Rebbach	0	4	2	-	19	5	3	3	False	84	21	M	7	False	0	0	-	1	1	11	-	16	-	0	-	0	-	1	1	-	1	1
👤 Aitor Mañas	0	1	-	1	11	9	2	3	False	71	34	F	7.3	False	1	0	-	0	-	8	2	13	-	0	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	4
👤 Ander Guevara	1	2	2	-	15	7	2	1	True	90	6	M	6.5	False	0	0	-	0	-	28	-	37	-	0	-	0	-	-	-	1	1	5
👤 Calebe Gonçalves	0	1	1	-	8	5	-	3	False	71	20	M	6.6	False	0	0	-	0	-	17	1	23	-	0	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Carles Aleñá	0	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	False	6	10	M	6.3	True	0	0	-	0	-	2	-	2	-	0	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Denis Suárez	0	1	1	1	11	5	-	-	False	84	4	M	6.9	False	0	0	-	0	-	24	-	34	-	0	-	0	-	-	-	1	-	4
👤 Jon Guridi	0	-	-	-	2	-	1	-	False	1	18	M	6.3	True	0	0	-	0	-	2	-	2	-	0	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jon Pacheco	0	-	1	-	4	3	-	-	False	90	5	D	6.5	False	0	0	-	0	-	18	-	22	-	0	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Jonny Otto	0	2	-	1	13	6	2	3	False	90	17	D	7.3	False	0	0	-	0	-	41	1	47	-	0	-	0	1	-	-	-	-	1
👤 Lucas Boyé	1	1	-	1	5	3	2	-	False	19	15	F	6.3	True	0	0	-	0	-	4	-	7	-	0	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Nahuel Tenaglia	0	-	1	-	6	3	1	-	False	90	14	D	5.9	False	0	0	-	0	-	25	-	40	-	0	-	0	-	-	-	-	1	2
👤 Pablo Ibáñez	1	-	-	-	4	-	3	-	False	19	19	M	6.2	True	0	0	-	0	-	8	-	12	-	0	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Raúl Fernández	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	13	G	6.5	False	0	3	3	0	-	12	-	26	-	0	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Toni Martínez	0	-	-	-	22	10	1	1	False	90	11	F	7.3	False	0	0	-	1	-	15	-	23	-	1	-	1	1	2	2	-	-	1
👤 Victor Parada	0	1	-	-	7	3	-	-	False	90	24	D	6	False	0	0	-	0	-	13	-	23	-	0	-	0	-	-	1	-	1	3
👤 Ángel Pérez	0	-	-	-	2	1	-	-	False	6	7	D	6.7	True	0	0	-	0	-	3	-	7	-	0	-	0	-	-	-	-	-	-

Real Sociedad — Player Statistics

Player	cards.yellow	dribbles.attempts	dribbles.past	dribbles.success	duels.total	duels.won	fouls.committed	fouls.drawn	games.captain	games.minutes	games.number	games.position	games.rating	games.substitute	goals.assists	goals.conceded	goals.saves	goals.total	offsides	passes.accuracy	passes.key	passes.total	penalty.commited	penalty.saved	penalty.won	shots.on	shots.total	tackles.blocks	tackles.interceptions	tackles.total
👤 Aihen Muñoz	1	-	-	-	6	3	1	1	False	74	3	D	6.2	False	0	0	-	0	-	24	-	29	-	-	-	-	1	1	-	-
👤 Beñat Turrientes	1	2	-	1	18	12	3	5	False	90	8	M	7.3	False	1	0	-	0	-	41	1	53	1	-	-	1	1	-	-	3
👤 Brais Méndez	0	3	-	1	14	5	2	1	False	74	23	M	6.3	False	0	0	-	0	1	22	2	27	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Carlos Soler	0	1	1	1	7	3	1	1	False	59	18	M	6.7	False	0	0	-	0	-	27	-	32	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	1
👤 Dani Díaz	0	-	-	-	5	3	-	1	False	16	26	F	6.3	True	0	0	-	0	-	2	-	4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
👤 Duje Caleta-Car	1	-	-	-	17	9	1	1	False	90	16	D	6.3	False	0	0	-	0	-	47	-	53	1	-	-	1	1	-	3	-
👤 Goncalo Guedes	1	2	-	1	8	4	2	2	False	90	11	M	7.6	False	1	0	-	1	-	18	1	25	-	-	-	2	3	-	1	1
👤 Igor Zubeldia	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	1	5	D	-	True	0	0	-	0	-	-	-	3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Jon Aramburu	0	3	-	2	12	10	1	2	False	59	2	D	7.2	False	0	0	-	0	-	17	-	19	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	5
👤 Jon Martin	0	1	2	-	10	3	3	-	False	90	31	D	6.2	False	0	0	-	0	-	40	-	50	-	-	-	-	-	2	4	1
👤 Luka Sučić	0	1	-	1	6	5	1	-	False	31	24	M	7.2	True	1	0	-	0	-	11	1	13	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	3
👤 Mikel Oyarzabal	0	3	1	1	13	6	1	2	True	90	10	F	7.9	False	0	0	-	1	-	12	2	14	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	1
👤 Orri Steinn Óskarsson	0	1	-	-	4	1	1	-	False	16	9	F	7.7	True	0	0	-	1	2	-	-	2	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	-
👤 Sergio Gómez	0	1	-	-	8	5	1	1	False	90	17	M	6.9	False	0	0	-	0	-	24	1	27	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	4
👤 Álex Remiro	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	False	90	1	G	7.2	False	0	2	1	0	-	16	-	29	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-
👤 Álvaro Odriozola	0	-	-	-	2	1	-	-	False	31	20	D	6.6	True	0	0	-	0	-	7	-	9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

League standings

View standings

Teams in this match: Alaves and Real Sociedad

#	Team	Scr	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Real Sociedad	2-3	8	6	2	0	16	7	9	20	D W W W D
2	Atletico Madrid		6	4	1	1	15	7	8	13	W W W L D
3	Alaves	2-3	5	4	0	1	15	3	12	12	W W W W L
4	Valencia		5	4	0	1	12	3	9	12	W W W W L
5	Real Betis		5	4	0	1	15	8	7	12	W W W W L
6	Barcelona		5	4	0	1	9	5	4	12	W W W L W
7	Osasuna		4	3	1	0	16	7	9	10	W W W D
8	Albacete		5	3	1	1	11	7	4	10	W W D W L
9	Rayo Vallecano		4	3	0	1	11	5	6	9	W W W L
10	Deportivo La Coruna		4	3	0	1	8	2	6	9	W W W L
11	Elche		4	3	0	1	8	3	5	9	W W W L
12	Cultural Leonesa		4	3	0	1	11	7	4	9	W W W L
13	Racing Santander		4	3	0	1	8	4	4	9	W W W L
14	Burgos		4	3	0	1	6	4	2	9	W W W L
15	Athletic Club		5	3	0	2	7	6	1	9	W W W L L
16	Getafe		3	2	0	1	15	5	10	6	W W L
17	Palma del Rio		3	2	0	1	11	7	4	6	W W L
18	Sant Just		3	2	0	1	7	3	4	6	W W L
19	Eibar		3	2	0	1	7	3	4	6	W W L
20	CF Talavera		3	2	0	1	8	5	3	6	W W L
21	Granada CF		3	2	0	1	7	4	3	6	W W L
22	Huesca		3	2	0	1	7	4	3	6	W W L
23	Sevilla		3	2	0	1	6	3	3	6	W W L
24	Ourense CF		3	2	0	1	6	4	2	6	W W L
25	Eldense		3	2	0	1	6	4	2	6	W W L
26	Mallorca		3	2	0	1	5	3	2	6	W W L
27	Atlético Baleares		3	2	0	1	5	3	2	6	W W L
28	Levante		3	2	0	1	5	4	1	6	W W L
29	Sporting Gijon		3	2	0	1	3	2	1	6	W W L
30	Guadalajara		3	2	0	1	3	3	0	6	W W L
31	CD Sant Jordi		3	2	0	1	4	6	-2	6	W W L
32	Celta Vigo		3	1	2	0	4	2	2	5	W D D
33	Villarreal		3	1	1	1	7	2	5	4	W D L
34	Puerto de Vega		3	1	1	1	5	3	2	4	W D L
35	Sant Andreu		2	1	1	0	2	1	1	4	W D
36	Antoniano		2	1	1	0	1	0	1	4	W D
37	Real Murcia		3	1	1	1	4	5	-1	4	D W L
38	Maracena		3	1	1	1	3	6	-3	4	D W L
39	CD Yuncos		3	1	1	1	3	6	-3	4	D W L
40	Deportivo Getxo		3	1	1	1	2	8	-6	4	D W L
41	Inter de Valdemoro		3	1	1	1	4	13	-9	4	D W L
42	Tenerife		2	1	0	1	4	1	3	3	W L
43	FC Andorra		2	1	0	1	7	5	2	3	W L
44	Numancia		2	1	0	1	5	3	2	3	W L
45	Leganes		2	1	0	1	5	3	2	3	W L
46	Cadiz		2	1	0	1	5	4	1	3	W L
47	Extremadura 1924		2	1	0	1	4	3	1	3	W L
48	Ponferradina		2	1	0	1	4	3	1	3	W L
49	Malaga		2	1	0	1	4	3	1	3	W L
50	Zaragoza		2	1	0	1	3	2	1	3	W L
51	Almeria		2	1	0	1	3	2	1	3	W L
52	AD Ceuta FC		2	1	0	1	2	1	1	3	W L
53	SD Negreira		3	1	0	2	5	5	0	3	L W L
54	Real Madrid		2	1	0	1	5	5	0	3	W L
55	Girona		2	1	0	1	4	4	0	3	W L
56	Navalcarnero		2	1	0	1	4	4	0	3	W L
57	Manises		2	1	0	1	2	2	0	3	W L
58	FC Cartagena		2	1	0	1	2	2	0	3	W L
59	Real Ávila		2	1	0	1	2	2	0	3	W L
60	Espanyol		2	1	0	1	2	2	0	3	W L
61	Cieza		2	1	0	1	1	1	0	3	W L
62	Torrent		2	1	0	1	4	5	-1	3	W L
63	Sabadell		2	1	0	1	2	3	-1	3	W L
64	Portugalete		2	1	0	1	1	3	-2	3	W L
65	Textil Escudo		2	1	0	1	2	5	-3	3	W L
66	Los Garres		3	1	0	2	2	6	-4	3	L W L
67	Tarazona		1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	D
68	Atlético Astorga		1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	D
69	Europa Fc		1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	D
70	UD Ourense		1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	D
71	Ibiza		1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	D
72	Antequera		1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	D
73	Langreo		1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	D
74	Quintanar del Rey		2	0	1	1	2	3	-1	1	D L
75	Betis Valladolid		2	0	1	1	1	2	-1	1	D L
76	Ebro		2	0	1	1	4	6	-2	1	D L
77	Universitario FC		2	0	1	1	2	4	-2	1	D L
78	Sporting Ceuta		2	0	1	1	1	3	-2	1	D L
79	Mirandes		2	0	1	1	1	3	-2	1	D L
80	Reddis		2	0	1	1	1	3	-2	1	D L
81	Campanario		2	0	1	1	0	2	-2	1	D L
82	Racing Ferrol		2	0	1	1	0	2	-2	1	D L
83	Pontevedra		2	0	1	1	1	4	-3	1	D L
84	Alberite		2	0	1	1	1	5	-4	1	L D
85	Orihuela		1	0	0	1	3	4	-1	0	L
86	Constància		1	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0	L
87	Atlético Tordesillas		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
88	Cacereño		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
89	Poblense		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
90	Mérida AD		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
91	Teruel		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
92	Atlètic Lleida		1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	L
93	Cordoba		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
94	Valladolid		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
95	Caudal		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
96	Puente Genil		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
97	Real Avilés		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
98	Castellón		1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	L
99	Oviedo		1	0	0	1	2	4	-2	0	L
100	Náxara		1	0	0	1	2	4	-2	0	L
101	Ucam Murcia		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
102	Tropezón		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
103	Las Palmas		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
104	Mutilvera		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
105	Juventud Torremolinos		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
106	Real Jaén		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
107	UD Logroñés		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
108	Estepona		1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	L
109	La Unión Atlético		1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	L
110	Lorca Deportiva		1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	L
111	Gimnastic		1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	L
112	Lourdes		2	0	0	2	1	4	-3	0	L L
113	Rayo Majadahonda		1	0	0	1	1	4	-3	0	L
114	Toledo		1	0	0	1	1	4	-3	0	L
115	Azuaga		1	0	0	1	1	4	-3	0	L
116	San Fernando CD		1	0	0	1	0	3	-3	0	L
117	Utebo		1	0	0	1	0	3	-3	0	L
118	Arenas Getxo		1	0	0	1	0	3	-3	0	L
119	Roda		1	0	0	1	1	5	-4	0	L
120	Valle Egüés		1	0	0	1	1	5	-4	0	L
121	Sámano		1	0	0	1	1	5	-4	0	L
122	SD Logroñés		1	0	0	1	0	4	-4	0	L
123	RSD Alcalá		1	0	0	1	0	4	-4	0	L
124	Atletico Calatayud		2	0	0	2	1	7	-6	0	L L
125	Ciudad de Lucena		1	0	0	1	0	6	-6	0	L
126	Atlético Melilla		2	0	0	2	0	10	-10	0	L L

Predict the score

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CatBoost Prediction

Model not available yet. Run train_catboost to train a model.

Qualification Prediction Based on 5000 simulations

Alaves

0.0%

Real Sociedad

100.0%

Match Type: Single match knockout

Method: Monte Carlo (Dixon-Coles + Elo fallback, elo-weighted ET/PEN)

How was this calculated?

We simulate this knockout matchup using scoreline probabilities from Dixon-Coles where available, with an Elo fallback when needed. For two-leg ties we aggregate both legs and count who advances; for single-match knockouts and aggregate-level ties we resolve the shootout step with an elo-weighted draw rather than a 50/50 flip.

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Score probability matrix for likely final results

35.0%

Home Win

25.3%

Draw

39.7%

Away Win

Expected Goals

Alaves 1.56

Real Sociedad 1.67

Score Probability Heatmap

Home Goals (rows) Away Goals (columns)

Probability intensity Low High

Alaves

Real Sociedad

Estadio de Mendizorroza

Prediction (dixon_coles)

Qualification %

Missing Players

Who Is Dominating?

CatBoost Prediction

Our predictions

Dixon-Coles Predictions

Bookmakers (Full API Markets)